Who's number 3?

[Lukasmom]

THJ by pure stats.  I expect him to average 18 per game off the bench.  If the Mavs make a run at the playoffs possible 6th man award.

[fifteenth]

Yeah we'll see what Rick does but itd be hard to keep him out of my closing lineup 
Even if that means KP is the only big

This scenario would not be surprising

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THJ by pure stats.  I expect him to average 18 per game off the bench.  If the Mavs make a run at the playoffs possible 6th man award.

that's a lot of points

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

Curry is a rotation player but I'd be shocked if he averages more than 19 mpg. This team has too much depth. 

Even JJ averaged less than 20 mpg last year, so I could easily see him on this 10-20 mpg tier as well.

+32 min: Doncic, Porzingis

+28 min: Wright

20-24 min: Powell, Kleber, DFS, Brunson, THJ

DNP-CD - 20 min: Barea, Curry, Jackson, Boban

Be ready: Lee, Roby, Ryan from Accounting

I don't see Wright being in that tier above the others.  They gave him $9 million a year once Danny Green bailed on them.  He isn't that good.

Barea is the wild card.  I dunno if Rick is ready to hand over the 2nd unit to Brunson.

[vfromlmf]

Barea is the wild card.  I dunno if Rick is ready to hand over the 2nd unit to Brunson.

I think you're more likely to see Barea playing with Brunson than taking minutes from him. Together, they'll anchor the backup guard rotation. Barea is virtually guaranteed 8-10 minutes per half. 

Once everyone is healthy I have the overall minutes distribution something like this

Doncic .... 32   Brunson ... 20
Wright .... 28   Barea ...... 20   Curry ....... tbd
DFS ........ 20   THJ ......... 24   
Porzingis. .32                          Jackson ... tbd
Powell...... 24   Kleber.......20    Boban ..... tbd

That's a 9-man rotation with about 20 spot minutes going to one or more of Curry, Jackson or Boban depending on fouls & matchups.

Note: I may be in the minority in this but i FULLY expect to see some three guard lineups featuring Brunson, Barea and Curry on the floor together.

[fifteenth]

Tonight will tell us at least a little about all of our lineup theories

[fifteenth]

So, V, it's interesting that Curry's minutes were the average of our two estimates.

Regarding who the 3rd is, if you want to talk offensive skills, it sure looked like Curry and Brunson were in a battle for the the "3rd" in that regard. Man, if folks have forgotten, Curry showed all the same nifty offensive game last night that he showed 3 years ago with the Mavs. He isn't just a shooter. He takes people off the dribble, can create, has amazing touch on floaters. 

Last night reminded me. I'm fully in the "play Curry" camp. The only reason I can think of to keep his minutes down is if he needs load management. But at the very least, I'm more convinced of what I was already thinking, that Curry is Finishing Five material.

And now for Sci-Fi novel fans...I think Curry is the THIRD, and he should FINISH games...

I dub him ENDER.

[vfromlmf]

Yup I was TOTALLY wrong about Barea. Egg on my face for sure. Let's see if Carlisle keeps it that way though. I wouldn't mind Carlisle keeping Barea in his back pocket as a game changer, to be used only if necessary. 

Think ... Mavs are on life support with no energy, down 22 points with 6 minutes lefft in the 3rd. Carlisle wants to take a technical to send a message but instead sends in Barea like a shot of adrenalin. An urgent dose of Barea. Too much and it will kill you but the right amount at the right time will restart your heart. 

====

I do really like Curry in the rotation, I just don't think you can overuse him. He is Seth Curry after all. He made a great impact in the first half but not so much in the second. I love Curry like Portland used him. Basically an 18-20 minute crafty, veteran shooter. 

Just like he was used last night ... +11

I don't see him finishing games just because Carlisle will need a defender on the floor. I do like the Brunson closing in the backcourt with Doncic. DFS on the wing with Porzingis and Kleber or Powell.

[fifteenth]

Yup I was TOTALLY wrong about Barea. Egg on my face for sure. Let's see if Carlisle keeps it that way though. I wouldn't mind Carlisle keeping Barea in his back pocket as a game changer, to be used only if necessary. 

Think ... Mavs are on life support with no energy, down 22 points with 6 minutes lefft in the 3rd. Carlisle wants to take a technical to send a message but instead sends in Barea like a shot of adrenalin. An urgent dose of Barea. Too much and it will kill you but the right amount at the right time will restart your heart. 

====

I do really like Curry in the rotation, I just don't think you can overuse him. He is Seth Curry after all. He made a great impact in the first half but not so much in the second. I love Curry like Portland used him. Basically an 18-20 minute crafty, veteran shooter. 

Just like he was used last night ... +11

I don't see him finishing games just because Carlisle will need a defender on the floor. I do like the Brunson closing in the backcourt with Doncic. DFS on the wing with Porzingis and Kleber or Powell.

Don't throw those eggs at yourself just yet. I think the lineups could be influx for a few weeks. But I agree though that a non-rotation shot of adrenaline is the right role for JJB. "JJ, get in their and fix this" - Rick.

I also think your're right about keeping Seth's minutes down. Brunson's game can handle the workload that Seth's body might not be able to handle. I just love to watch Seth play. He's probably the THIRD in regard to skill level. 

If I was the coach I'd finish games with something like: Luka, Brunson, Curry, (DFS or Jackson depending on the offensive/defensive needs), KP.

That is unless the Luka/DP/KP trio turn out to be as unstoppable as some folks say it will be, then it seems like you need Powell to close, which means you have to choose two out of Brunson, Curry, Jackson, DFS to close.

[Magickian]

I dub him ENDER.

I LOVE that book. Did you ever see the movie? Wasn’t great but it was good enough and as a childhood fan of that book, it was fun to see it on the big screen

[fifteenth]

I LOVE that book. Did you ever see the movie? Wasn’t great but it was good enough and as a childhood fan of that book, it was fun to see it on the big screen

I didn't see the movie but I liked the book enough (as an adult) that I read the whole Ender series and then moved over and read the series about Bean. 

I think I'd coach like Ender. "The enemy's basket is down".

[ThisIStheYear]

Well, now we know. That didn’t take long.

[bartlettbear]

It should be Jackson but he is not a RC guy, he moves to well without the ball  fro RC

[vfromlmf]

Wright has now played 53 minutes over two games with six steals and no turnovers.

[Jommybone]

Love Wright's fit on this team. When he starts hitting 3s, he becomes a difference maker. Love Dwight next to rim defenders like Maxi and, I hope, KP. Next to Dirk was a problem defensively. But like the potential this year. Love love love Brunson on the court with anybody. That guy is good at everything and moving towards greatness. Give him a no-trade clause.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I’m less interested in who is #3 and more interested in who is playing effectively and what lineup combinations are working.  The minutes are tiny in anything more than a two man lineup.  We have 14 2-man combos that have played 25 minutes or more and only 3 are negative:

Brunson-Luka (1.2)
KP-Maxi (3.0) (Hmmm)
THJ-Jackson (11.6)

Again using 25 minutes as the base, here are the 2-man combos that have been the best:

KP-DFS 31.2 (Didn’t see that coming)
Luka-Wright 19.1
DFS-Luka 12.8 (Didn’t see that coming)
DFS-Brunson 10.1 (starting to see a pattern)

Here are the top 5 players in seven important stats that aren’t minutes dependent:

O-Rating:  Wright/Luka/Jackson/DFS/Curry
D-Rating:  Wright/Luka/Maxi/KP/Brunson-DFS (tie)
Spread:     Wright,Luka/DFS/Jackson/KP
TS%:        Wright/Curry/Luka/Jackson/KP
3%:          Curry/KP/Wright/Luka/Brunson (everyone else sucks)
WS/48:     Wright/Luka/Jackson/KP/DFS/Brunson
BPM:         Luka/Wright/KP/DFS/Brunson

Here are the total mentions in the list above (note Powell would be a 5 based on past performance):

Wright.   7
Luka.     7
KP.         6
DFS.      5
Jackson  4
Brunson 3
Curry.    3
Maxi.     1

Everyone expects KP and Luka to look good.  Wright is super hot through two games (recall he was pretty good in Memphis last season in a small sample too).  The surprises to me are DFS and Jackson.  Maxi is a bit overexposed with Powell down, but by many measures DFS has been the better KP wing man in the early going.  Jackson and Curry have played well in limited minutes (I hope they get more as time goes by)

Through two games, there have essentially been four parts of the rotation:

1. KP/Luka together
2. KP sits and Luka stays
3. Neither KP nor Luka
4. KP comes back while Luka sits

Many people focus on who starts.  Who finishes is obviously the most important thing and will be matchup dependent.  I think Carlisle is actually more focused on #3 above.  You get that right first.  Then you figure who is best with each of our stars in #2 and #4.  The starters are arguably least important right now as you count on the stars to carry whoever is on the floor with them.  I’ll be very curious to see what happens when Powell returns.  THJ is a bit of a mystery right now as he had a really good pre-season and has sucked through two games.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1188115569809219589

[fifteenth]

Thanks.Dan! I like this analysis! 

With a two game sample size it's no suprise that Wright is rated so highly since last night was statistically outstanding. 

DFS isn't a surprise to me because it seems like the team has played well with him on the floor. He's really one of a kind on this team. He's a glue guy and lineups need someone who gets dirty like he does. Fans see the bricked 3s and don't like him. He'd be better if his shot was any good, of course, nonetheless, he does things (tip outs, offensive rebounds and put backs, good D, general hustle without needing touches, ability to play perimeter D as a 4.). THE PLAY of game 1 involved DFS getting in a scrum, saving the possession, and knocking the ball to Brunson.

[ZombieFrog]

I think it's gonna be Wright! He's got something and it looks like we know it.

[dirkfansince1998]

Thanks.Dan! I like this analysis! 

With a two game sample size it's no suprise that Wright is rated so highly since last night was statistically outstanding. 

DFS isn't a surprise to me because it seems like the team has played well with him on the floor. He's really one of a kind on this team. He's a glue guy and lineups need someone who gets dirty like he does. Fans see the bricked 3s and don't like him. He'd be better if his shot was any good, of course, nonetheless, he does things (tip outs, offensive rebounds and put backs, good D, general hustle without needing touches, ability to play perimeter D as a 4.). THE PLAY of game 1 involved DFS getting in a scrum, saving the possession, and knocking the ball to Brunson.

I think DFS perimeter D is really overrated. Big reason why the Mavs were exposed in the 1st quarter was him not being able to defend Favors inside and after RC switched it up Ingram on the perimeter. We tend to think of him as a good defender because he is the only forward with wingspan and athleticism.
His strength is rebounding...especially on the offensive board.

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https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1188115569809219589

Really shows how difficult it is to evaluate defense with boxscore numbers. TPA is based on BPM and the most important defensive number in the formula is DREB.
Looking at our best defenders Maxi and KP it is obvious why they aren´t looking as good as they do in +/- or shot contest/percentage based metrics. Both are mediocre rebounders.

[Lukasmom]

Revisiting this thread. THJ will end season near 18ppg.. and the for sure 3rd option. Guess I was the only one in this thread to call it?