Tank watch for the last ten days of the season

[Dirknows]

Cooper got his 33 in a loss, so that’s a positive. This Bulls game is gonna be a brutal product on the court.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't understand the tie.   Can you explain.   Isn't there a coin flip?

The lottery odds between the two tied teams are split (take the ping pong balls for both and split them equally).  The coin flip establishes the order if neither of the tied teams moves up.  

Outcomes:

6th:         Dallas loses/Memphis wins
7th:         Dallas wins/Memphis loses
Tie 6/7:    Both Dallas/Memphis lose or both win (unless both win and NO loses)
Tie 7/8:    Dallas wins/NO Loses/Memphis loses
Tie 6/7/8: Dallas wins/NO loses/Memphis wins

The last option seems highly unlikely.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Adding 7th/8th two way tie (3 way seems highly unlikely):


Dallas Lottery Odds (Key Outcomes)

Outcome            | 6th Worst | Tie (6/7) | 7th Worst | Tie (7/8)
-------------------|-------——|------—---|-------——--|-----------
Top 4 Pick          |  37.2%    |  34.6%   |  31.9%     |  29.8%
#6 Pick              |    9.4%   |    8.3%   |    7.1%     |    6.2%
#7 Pick              |    9.7%   |    8.5%   |    7.2%     |    6.3%
#8 Pick              |  20.6%   |  27.4%    |  34.1%.    |  29.6%
#9 Pick              |  29.2%   |  23.2%    |  17.2%     |  21.4%
#10 Pick            |    3.7%   |    3.3%    |    2.8%     |    3.1%

[Scott41theMavs]

2nd to the last day of the season. No games at all today. I suppose they did that so everyone gets to play on the last day without being segababa.

[OldMavsFan]

After last nights game, there is no way the Grizz will win tomorrow, I guess there is a chance the Pelicans could win tomorrow, since the Wolves have nothing standing ways to play for, but I really don't understand why the Pelicans are resting players when they don't have a draft pick anyway. So Mavs win they are 7th or tied for 7th, I do wonder why they don't use the season long standings, which the Mavs will finish lower than either or both of the other teams, due to tie breakers on ties. The highest odds are the Mavs pick 8th or 9th, if they don't get lucky again and finish in the top 4.

Last night there were 168 players not playing, the only reason to go the games would be to get autographs from all the players that will spend the rest of their lives telling the story about being and NBA player for one or two games. I believe if they would do away with average points, assist, block, etc and go back to crowning the player with the most points, assist and etc., there would be a lot more at stack and there wouldn't be so many rec league games to end the season.

[mvossman]

Adding 7th/8th two way tie (3 way seems highly unlikely):


Dallas Lottery Odds (Key Outcomes)

Outcome            | 6th Worst | Tie (6/7) | 7th Worst | Tie (7/8)
-------------------|-------——|------—---|-------——--|-----------
Top 4 Pick          |  37.2%    |  34.6%   |  31.9%     |  29.8%
#6 Pick              |    9.4%   |    8.3%   |    7.1%     |    6.2%
#7 Pick              |    9.7%   |    8.5%   |    7.2%     |    6.3%
#8 Pick              |  20.6%   |  27.4%    |  34.1%.    |  29.6%
#9 Pick              |  29.2%   |  23.2%    |  17.2%     |  21.4%
#10 Pick            |    3.7%   |    3.3%    |    2.8%     |    3.1%

Are these right?  They look different than what is on tankathon.

The top 4 looks right, but the rest looks wrong. The 6th seed has 8.6% chance of getting the 6th pick and 29.8% change of 7th pick. The 7th seed has zero chance to get a 6th pick.

EDIT: Also, if there is a tie the odds only get split for the top 4 picks. A coinflip decides the rest of the odds. (I just found this out).

[Dirknows]

Coopers gonna have a game tomorrow that will lock him for ROTY and we will probably win…and we’re still getting a top-4 pick so let’s not worry too much. If the lottery is rigged, which there’s just no way it’s not with all the number 1 picks that have transpired over the years with seemingly insurmountable odds, it’s not good for the 4th largest market in the US to not field a competitive team. Top-4 pick incoming.

[Scott41theMavs]

Coopers gonna have a game tomorrow that will lock him for ROTY and we will probably win…and we’re still getting a top-4 pick so let’s not worry too much. If the lottery is rigged, which there’s just no way it’s not with all the number 1 picks that have transpired over the years with seemingly insurmountable odds, it’s not good for the 4th largest market in the US to not field a competitive team. Top-4 pick incoming.

May it be so re: moving up. And by the way, I absolutely agree that if the lottery is fixed in any way, the Mavs will move up. But if they win the Chicago game and don't move up, I'm not going to care much about the draft when it's about seven deep and tied for seventh doesn't provide much opportunity for seven (not at all if they would lose that coin flip).

[DanSchwartzgan]

Are these right?  They look different than what is on tankathon.

The top 4 looks right, but the rest looks wrong.  The 6th seed has 8.6% chance of getting the 6th pick and 29.8% change of 7th pick.  The 7th seed has zero chance to get a 6th pick.

EDIT: Also, if there is a tie the odds only get split for the top 4 picks.  A coinflip decides the rest of the odds. (I just found this out).

Apologies.  That was a combination of being on my first cup of coffee and asking ChatGPT to create the graph for me.  I agree that the top four do appear to be correct.

Tankathon assumes a coin flip winner when it posts odds for the picks after the top four.  But, Chat doesn’t do it that way.  In the tie column, it averaged the odds since the coin flip hasn’t occured yet. I have no idea what it was trying to do in the columns where there isn’t a tie since it averaged those also (some of the time).  Tankathon has two versions of its Pick Odds page (one showing ties and one showing the base odds).   Even Tankathon has different odds for the various picks 6-10 between the two graphs…but, as you say, they aren’t averaged in the tie graph.    

The point of trying to put that all in one place was to make this point.  Where we finish compared to Memphis has an impact on the Top 4 results, but whatever happens is going to happen there no matter the odds (as we saw with a 1.8% chance last year).  The chances of any one pick in the Top four from ending 6th, tied or 7th aren’t the end of the world.

Where the real difference appears to be (and what I wanted to show in a side by side comparison) is what happens in the 6-10 range.  Depending on the coin flip result, being 6th vs 7th has a fairly large impact.  Obviously, 6th is off the table if you are 7th and the odds go way up of moving down to 8th if you start out 7th.  I think we’ll be happy with any of the top four, but who is available at 8th vs 7th might end up being a big deal.

[Chicagojk]

Doesn’t look good guys. Houston favored by 13.5 over
Memphis. At home Dallas is favored by 6.5 over Chicago. Signs aligning that Dallas wins and Memphis loses. Will be interesting to see if Dallas plays the game pure or really tries to lose.

[loki]

Doesn’t look good guys.  Houston favored by 13.5 over
Memphis.  At home Dallas is favored by 6.5 over Chicago.  Signs aligning that Dallas wins and Memphis loses.  Will be interesting to see if Dallas plays the game pure or really tries to lose.

Minnesota is also favored by 5.5 over New Orleans. Drastic action may be needed to avoid the worst-case scenario of a tie for 7th.

[Scott41theMavs]

Final day of the season. Three games of interest, but really just one.

Bulls at Mavs, 7:30 pm CST. Must lose. At all costs.

Grizzlies at Rockets, 7:30 pm CST. The Rockets would have to pick eight old ladies out of the stands to suit up and play for them to lose this one, given the historical comical garbage the Grizz have trotted out lately.

Pels at Timberwolves, 7:30 pm CST. Unlikely the Pels win, but stranger things have happened.

[OldMavsFan]

Houston by 13.5 over Memphis surely is a typo, 33.5 seems more like what the number should be after the Grizz lost by 41 against the elitie tanking team the Jazz last game and only played 6 players and their starters had only played 49 games total going into the game.

The Pelicans have nothing to lose for, since they don't own their pick and is going to the Hawks and the Wolves can't move up or down, so the Pelicans might have a shot at winning.

Mavs and Kidd are only focused on improving Coopers numbers and getting Klay a couple more made 3s. The Bulls will know starting the game if they need to lose or risk finishing with a tie with the Bucks, but over-all if I bet I would bet on the Mavss to win tonight. Mavs will be tossing up a lot of 3s and Cisse and Powell as their probable only centers and a lot of 3 two ways, Johnson and Powell might be enough to pull out a lose.

[mvossman]

Apologies.  That was a combination of being on my first cup of coffee and asking ChatGPT to create the graph for me.  I agree that the top four do appear to be correct.

Tankathon assumes a coin flip winner when it posts odds for the picks after the top four.  But, Chat doesn’t do it that way.  In the tie column, it averaged the odds since the coin flip hasn’t occured yet. I have no idea what it was trying to do in the columns where there isn’t a tie since it averaged those also (some of the time).  Tankathon has two versions of its Pick Odds page (one showing ties and one showing the base odds).   Even Tankathon has different odds for the various picks 6-10 between the two graphs…but, as you say, they aren’t averaged in the tie graph.    

The point of trying to put that all in one place was to make this point.  Where we finish compared to Memphis has an impact on the Top 4 results, but whatever happens is going to happen there no matter the odds (as we saw with a 1.8% chance last year).  The chances of any one pick in the Top four from ending 6th, tied or 7th aren’t the end of the world.

Where the real difference appears to be (and what I wanted to show in a side by side comparison) is what happens in the 6-10 range.  Depending on the coin flip result, being 6th vs 7th has a fairly large impact.  Obviously, 6th is off the table if you are 7th and the odds go way up of moving down to 8th if you start out 7th.  I think we’ll be happy with any of the top four, but who is available at 8th vs 7th might end up being a big deal.

Not to mention there is a legit chance 8th comes into place with a Mavs win.  In that case all the discussion about Acuff, Wagler and Flemings was probably a waste of time.  They will either luck into a top 4 pick or the real discussion will be about Burries, Brown and Philon.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I don't blame Cooper for playing balls out in this game. I blame the organization for not protecting him from himself. This is the biggest game in what could be a DECADE of basketball and apparently no one has the sack to say, "Hey, this game is bigger than anyone's ego." THIS is why we need an "Ainge".

If, after all this, this game causes the Mavs to pick 8th or worse, I may have to take a break.

[cow]

Hard to blow a 3 on 1 fast break, but this Chicago team has the talent to do it.

[loki]

I don't blame Cooper for playing balls out in this game. I blame the organization for not protecting him from himself. This is the biggest game in what could be a DECADE of basketball and apparently no one has the sack to say, "Hey, this game is bigger than anyone's ego."  THIS is why we need an "Ainge".

If, after all this, this game causes the Mavs to pick 8th or worse, I may have to take a break.

And there's the turned ankle for Coop. They fired Nico but this still isn't a serious organization.

[cow]

Dwight Powell says "hold my beer" as he leads a 3 on 1 break and fumbles it.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Dwight Powell says "hold my beer" as he leads a 3 on 1 break and fumbles it.

Quietly, I feel like Dwight is the only person in the organization that sees the big picture.

[cow]

Quietly, I feel like Dwight is the only person in the organization that sees the big picture.

On a serious note, this could be his final game with the team.