The thing that's driving me nuts is overanalyzing Mavs in this soft closing schedule including last night. You should throw out all those games. The Mavs were not trying hard enough. That's a problem in some sense sure and I don't like it but the good news is Mavs won't be playing bad teams they don't care about in the playoffs.
Look at games Mavs actually played hard this last month or so:
- Nets - win
- Heat - win
- Wizards - win
- Warriors - win
- Lakers - back to back wins
I am not sure the last game the Mavs actually cared about that they lost since maybe the Knicks in mid-April? I think they played the Knicks hard this season so that was a game the Mavs just lost. But that was a month ago. Mavs have had impressive wins. I don't know what it means exactly for the Clippers except that I expect Mavs to be competitive.
If I were to analyze stats I would want to analyze stats from those types of games that the Mavs clearly saw as important matchups. Since a lot of those games were statement wins I would suppose our defensive and offensive numbers were pretty good. I am not cherry-picking either bc this Mavs team more than any other I can remember clearly plays with 10x more effort in matchups they care about. While its annoying as a fan I am impressed that the Mavs still managed to get the 5th seed despite lazy efforts against teams like the Kings.
(05-17-2021, 08:15 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: If the probability that the Clippers will win the series is greater than 78.261%, then [Clippers at -360] is a good bet (i.e., +EV).
If the probability that the Clippers will win the series is less than 78.261%, then [Clippers at -360] is a bad bet (i.e., -EV).
78.261% is the break-even point for a bet on the Clippers at -360.
If the probability that the Mavs will win the series is greater than 27.027%, then [Mavs at +270] is a good bet (i.e., +EV).
If the probability that the Mavs will win the series is less than 27.027%, then [Mavs at +270] is a bad bet (i.e., -EV).
27.027% is the break-even point for a bet on the Mavs at +270.
So you are saying my random stab at 20% was pretty damn accurate? Nice.
05-17-2021, 09:33 PM (This post was last modified: 05-17-2021, 10:09 PM by Hogmelon.)
(05-17-2021, 09:10 PM)Kammrath Wrote: So you are saying my random stab at 20% was pretty damn accurate? Nice.
No, sir, I didn't make any guesses (educated or otherwise) about the relevant probabilities. Draft Kings, on the other hand, seems to think that the smart money will come fairly close to agreeing with you (unless your "at best" qualifier swallows a significant chunk of your "20%"). [21.739% < Pₘ < 27.027%]
My statements were just simple arithmetical facts (like 2 + 2 = 4), having nothing to do with the Mavs, or the Clippers, or basketball.
05-17-2021, 09:40 PM (This post was last modified: 05-17-2021, 09:46 PM by Hogmelon.)
(05-17-2021, 09:33 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: No, sir, I didn't make any guesses (educated or otherwise) about the relevant probabilities. Draft Kings, on the other hand, seems to think that the smart money will come fairly close to agreeing with you (unless your "at best" qualifier swallows a significant chunk of your "20%").
My statements were just simple arithmetical facts (like 2 + 2 = 4), having nothing to do with the Mavs, or the Clippers, or basketball.
100C₀ = 360(1 - C₀)
100C₀ = 360 - 360C₀
460C₀ = 360
C₀ = 360/460 = 78.261%
270M₀ = 100(1 - M₀)
270M₀ = 100 - 100M₀
370M₀ = 100
M₀ = 100/370 = 27.027%
For whatever it's worth ...
I will cheerfully admit that some might label me "the eternal optimist," but I would estimate the probability of the Mavs winning the series against the Clippers is Pₘ, where 0.285 < Pₘ < 0.315.
(05-17-2021, 05:47 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Those games are not good ones to judge anything. Its pretty well established Mavs don't play well unless its a big game. So judging their performance off of Pels, Wolves is not a wise thing to do.
The last big game that the Mavs actually tried in was probably that Heat game and THJ lit it up. I expect him to be in the starting lineup for at least game 1.
Let's just hope he doesn't slump like he did for a few games before he got hot again. THJ is the only dependable scorer besides Luka and KP. Brunson is probably next. DFS, Kleber, and Richardson you don't know what you're going to get from game to game. And Redick, what's his deal is he hurt?
The Athletic did a piece where "A scout, a coach and an executive" (go to a bar) pick the winners of the 3/6 and 4/5 first round matchups in the east and west. The other three were split decisions in favor of the Heat, Knicks and Blazers. No one liked The Mav's chances with LAC.
No. 4 LA Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
Scout’s outlook: “(The Clippers) are just better.
“Dallas needs a third guy. They don’t really have it. I think (Kristaps) Porzingis (can be defended) when push comes to shove. I think it’s a five-game series. I know Dallas has played better since their slow start, but they just don’t have enough weapons. Tim Hardaway Jr. has to play really well. … They’ve got the one guy, Luka (Doncic), and (Kristaps) Porzingis is still a question mark.
“When you compare that to the two major guys on LA … I just think it’s a talent thing. There’s not enough there for Dallas. That would be a major upset (if Dallas wins), I think. They can win a game or two.
“The Clippers have got guys who can guard Doncic. They can put (Paul) George on him. You could put (Kawhi) Leonard on him. You could put Patrick Beverley on him. … They have a lot to prove.
“Dallas is a nice team. But can they beat LA four times? I’d be shocked. There’s just not enough there. …”
Coach’s outlook: “I think Luka’s good enough to win two games on his own. I’m anxious to see what they do. The Clippers do have a lot of bodies to throw on Luka, which I think is the reason Dallas won’t be able to beat them in the series. Between Kawhi, PG, and I don’t think Marcus Morris (Sr.) can guard him but he’s going to (try) for sure. Pat Bev. They’re going to have a lot of different bodies on him, which I think is the key to slowing down any of those stars. I think their wing depth, overall, is going to help them win that series.”
Executive’s outlook: “The Mavs obviously beat the Clippers by 50 this year. … They’re 2-1 (against the Clippers), and didn’t win the series (last year) but had a good series against the Clippers. So they come in with some confidence. Luka is a problem. The Clippers do have some bodies to throw at him, and probably some more diverse offensive options. But it should be a war. I’ll go (with the) Clippers in six.”
Scout’s pick: Clippers in five Coach’s pick: Clippers in six Executive’s pick: Clippers in six Consensus advancing team: Clippers
There might be a national guy or two out there that will throw the Mavs out as winners, but to think that we would get the nod from more than that is homerific. I can see a way to winning if we play our best basketball in 4 of however many games are played, just don’t think we will.
Here's the thing ya'll. All of these western matchups in particular are going to be difficult, primarily bc the Lakers ended up a low seed which means their first round opponent will get a tough matchup.
On paper the easiest matchup might be whoever the Jazz plays but then again that could be Warriors or a very fiesty Memphis team.
I think most (all?) of these first round matchups are going 6 or 7 games. Mavs being in the middle of the pack, healthy with Luka and Rick should be good for 6 games. Rick with Dalembert only beat the Spurs in 7 games. So you have to have confidence Mavs will be able to get this thing to 6 or 7 games which means they have a chance. This is where Rick makes his money.
I know people overrate Tyron Lue and I think he has value as a player's coach that can motivate guys but lets face it, he coached LeBron which means LeBron was the coach. He has yet to prove anything as a head coach. I believe Doc Rivers is a far superior coach to Lue until proven otherwise. Doc had a rough time last year mostly bc he lost the team to in-fighting I guess.
But this year give me Rick all day long being able to put Mavs in a good position to win. Last year Mavs had a skeleton crew, no KP, banged up Luka and still went 6 games. We also have the advantage of the refs keeping a close eye on Marcus Morris this year. Luka pretty much torches all the Clippers but I don't think Morris can get away with stuff he did last year.
Mavs have played tough this year which gives me hope. They have played Clippers, Lakers, Knicks teams well. The only team that really gives them fits are the 76ers and we don't have to worry about them.
Last time these teams met Rick went with playoff-level rotations and minutes which was pretty much Luka, THJ, DFS, Maxi, KP, Richardson all getting heavy minutes + WCS, Brunson and Iwundu.
Brunson's got a tough matchup so its hard to say if he can figure out how to combat the length of the Clippers. If he can't then I would expect more Richardson and less Brunson. Powell has come on sense then so its unclear how minutes will go btwn Maxi, WCS & Powell. Maxi has looked really rough defensively as he is just banged up. I am not sure yet how much we will get out of him.
All that to say Rick will figure it out and put the best team out there. Even if it takes him a couple games he will get the right mix in there to push Clips to a long series.
(05-18-2021, 08:52 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: There might be a national guy or two out there that will throw the Mavs out as winners, but to think that we would get the nod from more than that is homerific. I can see a way to winning if we play our best basketball in 4 of however many games are played, just don’t think we will.
I am happy to be the underdogs. Mavs are better that way and should already feel disrespected. Good motivation.
05-18-2021, 09:24 AM (This post was last modified: 05-18-2021, 09:25 AM by ItsGoTime.)
(05-18-2021, 09:16 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I am happy to be the underdogs. Mavs are better that way and should already feel disrespected. Good motivation.
I guess that’s what I’m saying, I don’t think it’s disrespectful to pick the Clippers in this matchup. I do think it’s good for them to play the underdog role, they lately have seemed to really get up for stiffer competition.
So early prediction is I worry Maxi is too hurt to play much (or at all?). The 60% Maxi we are getting may not be enough and that's a problem.
Rick is probably going to do 7 man rotation and I just think this series will feature J Rich much more than he's been used lately bc they have to have his defense. I imagine he will get at least one game to show he can bring it on defense and cut back on his FGA.
With that I think you may be 35+ from Luka, THJ, DFS, KP, Rich, one of WCS or Powell (unclear to me who will emerge) and then Brunson is also a wildcard because this is a tough matchup for him. It would not surprise me at all if Burke gets minutes, given how well he played. Brunson has to show that he can play against these guys.
So early prediction is I worry Maxi is too hurt to play much (or at all?). The 60% Maxi we are getting may not be enough and that's a problem.
Rick is probably going to do 7 man rotation and I just think this series will feature J Rich much more than he's been used lately bc they have to have his defense. I imagine he will get at least one game to show he can bring it on defense and cut back on his FGA.
With that I think you may be 35+ from Luka, THJ, DFS, KP, Rich, one of WCS or Powell (unclear to me who will emerge) and then Brunson is also a wildcard because this is a tough matchup for him. It would not surprise me at all if Burke gets minutes, given how well he played. Brunson has to show that he can play against these guys.
Maxi is key. If he is healthy and we can start the KP/Maxi/DFS/Luka/JRich lineup and bring THJ, Powell and Brunson off the bench then I think we will make this a series. If he is out or limited and we put out that KP/Powell/DFS/Luka/THJ lineup that has been getting killed lately then this is going to be a short series.
(05-18-2021, 11:19 AM)mvossman Wrote: If he is out or limited and we put out that KP/Powell/DFS/Luka/THJ lineup that has been getting killed lately then this is going to be a short series.
Ya, they have the personnel to make THJ work hard for his points and we haven't developed a THJ/Luka 2 man game to get them space for eachother.
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