PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I don't think they will put him on Luka. But I see Mavs actively seeking switches that would end up with Beverly on Luka

He won't be the primary defender, but he'll get his shot. Along with Batum, Leonard, George, Morris, and Mann. I'm sure he will see periodic double teams, as they try to make him play in a crowd to get the ball out of his hands.

[Hogmelon]

Negative nancy alert: Just going with the regular season numbers. Mavs win if they have the better 3-point percentage. Not easy against a team that shoots 41.1% from 3 (4th all time).

Morris 47.3% 5.2 attempts
Kennard 44.6% 3.6 attempts
Jackson 43.3% 4.2 attempts
Rondo 43.2% 2.4 attempts (only played 18 games)
Cousins 42.1% 1.2 attempts (only played 16 games)
Mann 41.8% 1.4 attempts
George 41.1% 7.7 attempts
Batum 40.4% 4.1 attempts
Leonard 39.8% 4.9 attempts
Beverley 39.7% 3.8 attempts

Only two rotation players below league average
Ibaka 33.9% 2.8 attempts
Zubac (Only attempted four 3s. Made his first one this week)


Just looking at the percentage the best Mavs would rank 8th and 9th compared to the Clippers. Kleber and Brunson with 41% and 40.5%.

SO MUCH THIS.

I would give the Mavs maybe a 20% chance to win the series at best because the Mavs will have to outshoot their own percentages AND outshoot one of the best shooting teams of all time in at least 4 games.

I will be rooting hard for the Mavs, but people need to keep their expectations in check......

....OR on second thought, let your expectations run wild so when the Mavs get beat soundly you grab your pitchforks and demand the Mavs trade KP and shake up the whole roster around Luka.

In the 2020-21 regular season ...

The Clippers 3P% was greater than or equal to 40% in 43 games.  Their record in those games was 34-9.

The Clippers 3P% was less than 40% in 29 games.  Their record in those games was 13-16.

The Mavericks held their opponents to a 3P% less than 40% in 45 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 33-12.

The Mavs' opponents had a 3P% greater than 40% in 27 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 9-18.

Everyone on planet Earth (including Papua New Guinea) realizes that 3-point defense will be a key to the Mavs' winning their first-round series against the Clippers.

The Mavs do not need to totally  shut down the Clippers' 3-point shooting.  The Mavs only need to hold the Clippers down ... enough.

So ...

Is Rick Carlisle a better coach than Tyronn Lue?  Of course, he is!

Will Rick Carlisle be able to guide the Mavs to victory by holding down the Clippers' 3P%  just barely enough?   Who knows?!?!?

Stay tuned!!!  (And keep those pitchforks tuned!)

[Kammrath]

keep those pitchforks tuned!

[embellisher]

Mavs in 6!

Of course, for this to happen, we need the following: 

• Playoff PG to show up
  
• Playoff Rondo to be a no-show 
  
• KP to play some D
  
• Rich to find another gear on both ends of the floor
  

[StepBackJay]

Zubac is a good matchup for KP. Brunson doesn't play well against the long Clippers so we need him to figure some stuff out. Luka will do his thing but needs to shoot well. KP on offense should be really good imo. DFS needs to hit buckets. Maxi is a major X factor. He was not looking good on defense at all against the Clippers last time they matched up. If Maxi is not close to 100% I am not sure he will be playable. He is one to watch out for. J Rich will probably get more PT in this series than we were expecting for other matchups bc Mavs will likely need his defense. THJ needs to shoot well but his
Dad should be at every game so I like those odds. WCS could play a big role or no role at all, we will see.

I think this series is going 7 games unless the Clippers get sloppy. It's a toss-up series to me if both teams are playing well.

[Chicagojk]

This will be a real interesting series for a lot of our players.   Can our situational bigs be productive against Zubac, who has played really well against us.   I think a big factor in the series is if  we can limit Zubac  from having those games where he scores 18+ points on 70+% shooting.   That is a killer when he is getting all those baskets at the rim. 

Jalen was great this year, but there are some matchups where he struggles.   The bigger, physical players have given him problems at times.   The playoffs is a large part mental, but this is Jalen's first playoffs.   Is he able to continue to play mostly mistake free games while also being a economical on offense?

Can we count on THJ and DFS to hit threes consistent during the series?   Hardaway was off in the playoffs last year and you could really see his frustration in his face.    He hasn't played many playoff games either.  Hopefully last year was a good learning experience.   I should probably throw Maxi in this grouping as well.  

Does Luka forget about the noise (refs, trash talking, national press) and just play ball.    In games where 3-4 possessions may impact the final outcomes, not hustling back on defense can be a killer.

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/HouseMavericks/statu...07173?s=20

[fifteenth]

Sounds like Rondo is the Clippers coach. He stands beside Ty Lue the whole game yelling out instructions. 

So this really is Rick vs Rondo

[Hogmelon]

In the 2020-21 regular season ...

The Clippers 3P% was greater than or equal to 40% in 43 games.  Their record in those games was 34-9.

The Clippers 3P% was less than 40% in 29 games.  Their record in those games was 13-16.

The Mavericks held their opponents to a 3P% less than 40% in 45 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 33-12.

The Mavs' opponents had a 3P% greater than 40% in 27 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 9-18.

Everyone on planet Earth (including Papua New Guinea) realizes that 3-point defense will be a key to the Mavs' winning their first-round series against the Clippers.

The Mavs do not need to totally  shut down the Clippers' 3-point shooting.  The Mavs only need to hold the Clippers down ... enough.

So ...

Is Rick Carlisle a better coach than Tyronn Lue?  Of course, he is!

Will Rick Carlisle be able to guide the Mavs to victory by holding down the Clippers' 3P%  just barely enough?   Who knows?!?!?

Stay tuned!!!  (And keep those pitchforks tuned!)

What is the probability that the Mavs will win their series against the Clippers if the Mavs hold the Clippers to less than 40% 3-point shooting (for the series)?

What about 39%?

38%?  37%?  36%?  35%?

Let X = Clippers' 3P% for the series
Let P = Mavs' probability of winning the series

Graph P(X).

                          

And ...

What is the probability that the Mavs will actually hold the Clippers to less than 40% 3-point shooting (for the series)?

What about 39%?

38%?  37%?  36%?  35%?

Graph it [because a picture is worth a thousand worms]!



http://gph.is/294OmBb

[StepBackJay]

Sounds like Rondo is the Clippes coach. He stands beside Ty Lue the whole game yelling out instructions. 

So this really is Rick vs Rondo

I really think Rick doesn't give 2 shits ab Rondo in any meaningful way. He will be a guy out there but I just don't think Rick or anyone related to the Mavs or fans really cares ab him at this point. He is just a guy, sometimes he gets hot in the playoffs so you have to watch for that but I don't think anyone cares ab his brief stint in Dallas anymore.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

Going to be tough.

Are all playoff games on national tv?  (ABC/ESPN/TNT)

[Hogmelon]

Going to be tough.

Are all playoff games on national tv?  (ABC/ESPN/TNT)

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-pla...n-abc-tnt/

[Scott41theMavs]

I hope that the final few games of the regular season taught the coaching staff that THJ needs to come off the bench and not start, or this is going to be an awfully short playoff series.

[StepBackJay]

I hope that the final few games of the regular season taught the coaching staff that THJ needs to come off the bench and not start, or this is going to be an awfully short playoff series.

Those games are not good ones to judge anything. Its pretty well established Mavs don't play well unless its a big game. So judging their performance off of Pels, Wolves is not a wise thing to do.

The last big game that the Mavs actually tried in was probably that Heat game and THJ lit it up. I expect him to be in the starting lineup for at least game 1.

[StepBackJay]

Going to be tough.

Are all playoff games on national tv?  (ABC/ESPN/TNT)

Yup. Goodbye hehe for now.

[fifteenth]

I really think Rick doesn't give 2 shits ab Rondo in any meaningful way. He will be a guy out there but I just don't think Rick or anyone related to the Mavs or fans really cares ab him at this point. He is just a guy, sometimes he gets hot in the playoffs so you have to watch for that but I don't think anyone cares ab his brief stint in Dallas anymore.

Yeah, of course he doesn't care about Rondo! I mean, I don't either. 

And you're no fun. 

But it is at least odd and interesting to me that the guy that our team voted to not give any playoff money to because he quit on the team in the playoffs, and who used to play Rick in Connect 4, will be this weird defacto coach, standing beside Ty Lou (chosen so that players could run the team) yelling instructions at the team for the 30 minutes per game that he's not on the floor. 

We could have have fun with the playoffs and have fun with whatever little story lines are out there to have fun with, you know, because the NBA playoffs are fun, and all the little details that we can mine and talk about are fun...

or we can just throw a wet blanket on everything. That sounds fun. 

What do you want to talk about, SBJ?

[mtrot]

He won't be the primary defender, but he'll get his shot. Along with Batum, Leonard, George, Morris, and Mann. I'm sure he will see periodic double teams, as they try to make him play in a crowd to get the ball out of his hands.

I don't mind them making Luka give up the ball, if our shooters will just shoot 35% or better from three.  What can't happen is this business of shooting 25% on threes.

[Hogmelon]

I would give the Mavs maybe a 20% chance to win the series at best ....

If the probability that the Clippers will win the series is greater than 78.261%, then [Clippers at -360] is a good bet (i.e., +EV).

If the probability that the Clippers will win the series is less than 78.261%, then [Clippers at -360] is a bad bet (i.e., -EV).

78.261% is the break-even point for a bet on the Clippers at -360.


If the probability that the Mavs will win the series is greater than 27.027%, then [Mavs at +270] is a good bet (i.e., +EV).

If the probability that the Mavs will win the series is less than 27.027%, then [Mavs at +270] is a bad bet (i.e., -EV).

27.027% is the break-even point for a bet on the Mavs at +270.

[StepBackJay]

What do you want to talk about, SBJ?

Lots of things, just Rondo is low on my list. There is a chance he gets hot like he did last year at which point he will be on my radar. Otherwise when I have watched him since he left he has mostly been a zero.

[RedFlag41]

I worry about Rondo's effect on the Clippers. Most often than not, he shows up during playoffs and could contribute to the Clippers through his BBIQ. He may be the difference between the Clippers of last year and this year.