John Collins...Our Third Star

[StepBackJay]

Yeah this seems like a waste of time, I fully expect their usual FA disaster. Collins will toy with them to get as much money as possible and/or ATL will match. Best hope is a SnT but that’s difficult to pull off due to the lack of assets the FO has failed to acquire/develope.

I don't think it will be a disaster. I think it works or it doesn't. Mavs can work out a deal with ATL and Schwartz pre-FA and if ATL is on board then I think Collins will be on board bc he will be getting a huge contract. If no ATL deal happens then Mavs are immediately going a different direction. Mavs I don't think would risk THJ leaving while they wait for an RFA sheet to get matched. I don't expect that at all.

[Branduil]

I will point out of that as long as the Mavs did this Collins deal and re-signed THJ first, it would be legal to do a trade with KP going out and Brogdon + Turner coming back.

[mvossman]

I am really struggling to see the appeal of John Collins.  Our two biggest needs are defense and a secondary play maker to take some load off Luka.  Collins addresses neither of those issues while taking up most of our resources to do so.

I have seen some suggestions that Collins is a good defender.  Historically that has not been the case and I think this year he is benefiting mightily by playing with Capella.  KP is not Capella.  Neither KP nor Collins are strong enough to handle the big centers, or mobile enough to guard the perimeter well.  I expect a KP/Collins defense to be worse than a Capella/Collins defense or even a KP/Maxi defense.

Most of the scenarios I am seeing (at least the ones that include keeping KP) involve Maxi and JRich going out and holding on to THJ.  That is losing two of three quality defenders we currently have without a reasonable way to replace them.  A KP/Collins/Luka/DFS/THJ lineup is going to be awesome on offense but a complete disaster on defense.  The bench will be thin too with Powell and Brunson the primaries (and neither a defensive stalwart).  The Nets might be able to get away with no defense, but that is a wildly more talented team than this.

And if we decide in a year that an all offense no defense approach will not work?  Not sure what our avenue is to change that.  Both KP and Collins will be guys whos original team's did not want to pay the max for.  With the two of them struggling on defense together and eating into each others touches I'm not sure either's value is going to go up significantly.  KP is the most likely one to trade, but you are going to need a starting defensive minded center and a two way play making SG.  Good luck getting all that with KP.

Collins is a luxury that we can't afford right now.  We have more important things to target.  Now if we manage to trade away KP and Brunson in a three team trade and get Turner and Brogdon back, then we can have serious conversations about trading Maxi+ for Collins.  A Turner/Collins/Luka/DFS/Brogdon would be no question contender worthy (but the bench would be Powell and Green?).

This is why I think Holmes makes so much more sense as a target.  He is half the price, he will not cost assets, he is our best chance at finding a compatible big with KP (similar to Powell last year but way better defensively), and a perfect replacement if we decide to move on from KP.

[mvossman]

Just want to point out that the board's collective wisdom is as follows:

No RFA's.  Too risky
No Rim Runners.  KP won't like it and KP/Powell has been a disaster in 120 minutes
No One over 31.  Doesn't fit the timeline.
Must be a playmaker, defender, floor spreader who won't take too many shots from our stars but can make shots when needed.

Among top 25 free agents, the players who (kind of) fit this are:

Norman Powell
Evan Fournier
Dennis Schroder

JRich opts in and WCS stays to play 2nd/3rd Center and we have about $20.6 to spend.  So, our offseason is THJ walks and we spend $20mm on Norman Powell.  If he stays in Portland, we offer the money to Fournier?  I'm OK with that as I see Powell as an upgrade (though I'd note there is very little Norman Powell buzz on this board).

If JRich opts in, and you plan on letting THJ walk, I think you trade JRich and WCS for Graham.  He handles your THJ volume shooting, need for a play maker and JRich point of attack defense (I think your analysis of his defense you posted earlier was about right.  The on/off numbers love him, but I wouldn't anticipate more than a competent point guard defender).  Then you spend the rest on Holmes.

I have not seen that many anti-rim runners on this board.  I don't think it is necessary, but its more than fine if it comes with a quality interior defender.

RFAs are very risky, unless you hash out a trade that includes limited assets.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What about Golden State though for a destination for Collins though?   They will certainly be big game hunting this offseason.   I don't think Beal is moved though, and with Wiseman's struggles they will probably need to lower their targets.  Especially if Minny keeps that pick this year.   I am not sure what salary GS could offer with Wiseman and the Minny pick, but I expect Golden State to be very aggressive this offseason.   Could Collins be a target?  

The issue with a non cap-space team like GS is BYC comes into play.  The deal would require a huge amount of salary being moved or a third team to take in a big dollar player from GS.  The Warriors are good at this stuff, so can’t count that out.  But, it wouldn’t be easy

[Kammrath]

Our two biggest needs are defense and a secondary play maker to take some load off Luka

This is where opinions diverge completely on this board.

I would say need number one is (and nothing is even close in comparison IMO):

NEED #1: Elite pick and roll partner for Luka.

Everything else can be added AFTER that. And secondary playmaking becomes way easier for average guards you grab off the scrap pile when they have an elite pick and roll partner. KP doesn't make Luka better AND he doesn't make Brunson (and company) better either. THAT'S the issue I see from my seat. Whether KP stays or goes, an elite pick and roll big is needed on this team ASAP.

[fifteenth]

NEED #1: Elite pick and roll partner for Luka.

[KillerLeft]

People are starting to talk themselves into another year of Richardson, and I'm beside myself. 

If he opts in, you trade his ass. The end.

[ItsGoTime]

Need #1: starters.

---

People are starting to talk themselves into another year of Richardson, and I'm beside myself. 

If he opts in, you trade his ass. The end.

Be prepared!

[KillerLeft]

Be prepared!

[mvossman]

This is where opinions diverge completely on this board.

I would say need number one is (and nothing is even close in comparison IMO):

NEED #1: Elite pick and roll partner for Luka.

Everything else can be added AFTER that. And secondary playmaking becomes way easier for average guards you grab off the scrap pile when they have an elite pick and roll partner. KP doesn't make Luka better AND he doesn't make Brunson (and company) better either. THAT'S the issue I see from my seat. Whether KP stays or goes, an elite pick and roll big is needed on this team ASAP.

Your right, opinions are very different.  I don't see this as a particular need.  Luka needs space.  I don't think it matters that much whether it is pulling guys out to the perimeter or generating "vertical" space with a rim runner.  In fact, I think against good defenses you are probably better off with 5 out, pulling their rim protecting center to the perimeter. 

I think you are underestimating KP contribution to Luka offensively, especially when play center.  By pulling the opposing center out, he generates so much room for Luka to operate.  

It's interesting that last years starting lineup before Powell went down is considered the peak for this team offensively (the team was the number one offensive team last year and particularly during this time).  That starting lineup of KP/Powell/Luka/DFS/THJ had 120 offensive rating and a net of 11.  That is very good.  This years much maligned 5 out starting lineup of KP/Maxi/Luka/DFS/JRich has a 124 offensive rating and a net of 13 (those are the two most used 5 man lineups in each year respectively)  We replaced Powell and THJ with Maxi and JRich for defensive reasons (which have had very mixed results due to KP and Maxi having down defensive years) and yet were still more potent offensively.  Thats with JRich on offense!  I fail to see the evidence that this team needs a rim runner offensively, but I would be more than willing to take one on if he improves the defense (see Holmes).

[Chicagojk]

People are starting to talk themselves into another year of Richardson, and I'm beside myself. 

If he opts in, you trade his ass. The end.

I think so.   I think if the Mavs don't offer him a contract, he opts out.   Otherwise, who knows where he winds up.   I will be surprised if he is back next year.

[ItsGoTime]

Barring a helluva contribution in the playoffs, I myself would not gamble on my theory of him needing multiple years with a team to start clicking. However, what I myself would like to see happen and what the Mavs do are way more often miss rather than hit. 

Also, in all honesty, I think him opting in so we can trade him is prob the best scenario for us. That salary is pretty good for matching purposes if Powell isn’t the needed position outgoing. It also allows us to possibly get “something” for him. Also, we’re better at trades than we are with money. I get that we need money for leverage in a RFA rich environment, maybe there is a different angle we haven’t thought of though, which is often the case til reports surface.

[Kammrath]

People are starting to talk themselves into another year of Richardson, and I'm beside myself. 

I can live with KP for one more year as there is so much possibility with him, but JR has to be a one and done experiment. I would take ANY of the Mavs three rookies over him honestly.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I can live with KP for one more year as there is so much possibility with him, but JR has to be a one and done experiment. I would take ANY of the Mavs three rookies over him honestly.

How KP performs in the playoffs I believe will determine his fate.  He makes too much $$ to be non-productive, exclusive of his injury history.

[embellisher]

I make the distinction because a team can un-renounce a player if things don't go their way.  

For real? I didn't know this was a thing. 

So if JRich opts out, we can renounce him and THJ to free up cap space, but if things don't work out, as long as they're still unsigned (risky, I know) we can unrenounce them, and still use bird rights on their new deals, as long as we aren't over the cap with their cap holds?

[StepBackJay]

I can live with KP for one more year as there is so much possibility with him, but JR has to be a one and done experiment. I would take ANY of the Mavs three rookies over him honestly.

My only caveat is you just don't know how things will go in the playoffs. What if he puts in an amazing defensive performance that helps the Mavs get out of the first round? That would be significant.

[Hogmelon]

My only caveat is you just don't know how things will go in the playoffs. What if he puts in an amazing defensive performance that helps the Mavs get out of the first round? That would be significant.

What if KP kicks Embiid's ass and wins the Finals MVP Award?  That would be significant.


http://gph.is/Z5SBTA

[StepBackJay]

What if KP kicks Embiid's ass and wins the Finals MVP Award?  That would be significant.

I mean there's a better chance the J Rich has a good defensive series against the Clippers than KP winning finals MVP. I am very low on J Rich but if ever there was a chance for him to earn some more money it would be to play the best defense of his life this series.

[DanSchwartzgan]

For real? I didn't know this was a thing. 

So if JRich opts out, we can renounce him and THJ to free up cap space, but if things don't work out, as long as they're still unsigned (risky, I know) we can unrenounce them, and still use bird rights on their new deals, as long as we aren't over the cap with their cap holds?

40. Can the renouncement be renounced? In other words, can a team un-renounce a player and then sign him using a Bird exception?

Only in one specific circumstance -- when they renounce one or more of their players in order to create enough cap room to sign another team's restricted free agent, but the restricted free agent's original team matches the offer sheet and keeps him. If that happens, the team can rescind the renouncement.