John Collins...Our Third Star

[DanSchwartzgan]

KP/Powell -18 in 104 minutes -8.5per100

I think Powell is a better defender than Collins and KP/Powell lineups have a horrible 126.2 D-Rating.

Come on now.  At least post a GIF with a flashing yellow light and a sign that says (incredibly) Small Sample Size.!!!

[KillerLeft]

Two thoughts...I think this line of thinking is too binary.  NBA offenses are more complex than that.

Second, I think the team would be worlds better if Powell could also do Maxi things and if Maxi could also do Powell things...no?  As it stands, no team covers Powell standing behind the 3 point line and no team expects Maxi to do anything but shoot a 3 and straight line dribble.  Imagine the possibilities if both could do everything the other can do.  Then add the stuff Collins can do that neither Powell nor Maxi can do.

I DEFINITELY think the above is true. Sorry if what I articulated indicated something else. 

I'm just saying that Collins doesn't solve the KP problem. I think there is one, and you don't seem to feel that way. That's probably really the only source of disagreement. If the 5 was under control here right now, and with a standard defensive-minded big guy, I'd absolutely agree that adding Collins would help. I LIKE the player a lot. But, since your plan is to add ANOTHER high-paid big who expects the ball to a front court that already features a max player who isn't shy about telling us he doesn't get the ball enough NOW (despite my opinion that he doesn't do much with the opportunities he gets)...I'm just not feeling it. SOMEONE has to raise their hand to do the dirty work. I think this pairing would make the Mavs' front court even softer, and that's kind of hard to do, imo.

[F Gump]

SOMEONE has to raise their hand to do the dirty work.

Good point. And while not applicable to the question of Collins, it would be great if Josh Green's offense can catch up, so that he can be played more often as a dirty work guy. He seems to have the aptitude and some skill for the job.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I DEFINITELY think the above is true. Sorry if what I articulated indicated something else. 

I'm just saying that Collins doesn't solve the KP problem. I think there is one, and you don't seem to feel that way. That's probably really the only source of disagreement.  

Hey, I've argued affirmatively for about a dozen other possibilities.  So, I'm not married to any.  This just happens to be what I'm interested in today.  Just trying to put out some content and push back when people fall back to their tried and (maybe) true positions.  

I truly have no idea if KP/Collins would work or not.  I see LeBron, AD and Schroeder working.  I see Brooklyn working (the three times a season they have all three of their stars healthy).  I think where I come down on this is Collins is very talented and in an off season where most of the other options are old or average, he's worth exploring.  If it doesn't work, we worry about what to do about it then...from a position of strength having him and KP.

The other day I happened upon an Athletic Podcast (77th Heaven, I think) where Tim Cato interviewed Jake Fisher (yes, that Jake Fisher) just prior to the TDL.  I came away much less convinced that his reporting means Dallas was doing anything more than gauging the market for KP...the same as they would do for anyone not names Luka (or Dirk).  I'm going to lean away from summer scenarios that ship KP elsewhere until I see something different.

[StepBackJay]

Good point. And while not applicable to the question of Collins, it would be great if Josh Green's offense can catch up, so that he can be played more often as a dirty work guy. He seems to have the aptitude and some skill for the job.

DFS is definitely a dirty work guy. Anyways sure its a problem to be solved. That's why we have Rick. But I like Collins as a talent upgrade at least.

[ThisIStheYear]

Collins is clearly the player to get. We already know the Mavs really wanted him. I just don’t see how that happens, realistically.

[mvossman]

Come on now.  At least post a GIF with a flashing yellow light and a sign that says (incredibly) Small Sample Size.!!!

Yeah, way too small sample, but man it sure didn't get any better tonight.

[Jason Terry]

Yeah, way too small sample, but man it sure didn't get any better tonight.

Not impressed. Yet again the opposition got anything they wanted both inside and outside. But hey, the offense is great

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Let's just say the Mavs go all in on JC on the first hour of free agency and have him sign-up a few hours later. So how long would the Mavs wait until Atlanta matches? And if Atlanta does decide that they want to keep JC and takes their sweet time before finally matching, this does mean RH is scooped up by then.

You go after JC if your sources tell you, Hawks are likely to accept your offer, if not, just move along.

RH is the safer get. Give him 18/4 if you have to.

[Halfnir]

Collins was born in Layton, Utah, to John Collins Jr. and Lyria Rissing-Collins. [...] He regularly played soccer as a teenager on his mother's military bases. He is a big Premier League football fan, and an avid supporter of London team Chelsea.[2]

[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Collins_(basketball)#cite_note-2][/url]

Guess it's either him OR Arsenal fan JRich 

[F Gump]

Yeah, way too small sample, but man it sure didn't get any better tonight.

But maybe there is a REASON that we have such a small sample size? Results can reveal flaws in using certain combinations and the strengths/weaknesses they each bring - after all, that's what the plus-minus is intended to reveal - which can tend to altering ensuing lineup decisions. It's worth keeping an eye on.

[F Gump]

Let's just say the Mavs go all in on JC on the first hour of free agency and have him sign-up a few hours later. So how long would the Mavs wait until Atlanta matches? And if Atlanta does decide that they want to keep JC and takes their sweet time before finally matching, this does mean RH is scooped up by then.

You go after JC if your sources tell you, Hawks are likely to accept your offer, if not, just move along.

RH is the safer get. Give him 18/4 if you have to.

The idea here, that the Mavs can't afford to get tied up waiting for a RFA-match decision by ATL, is smart.

It could be sidestepped if JC and ATL are willing to do a sign-and-trade, and such a decision is reached very early. Otherwise, it feels like the risk of having a disastrous outcome on multiple fronts would be way too high.

[Mapka]

For a variety of reasons, I'd like to start a John Collins thread.

1. Reporting we were interested in him at the TDL
2. Reporting we offered Maxi
3. Atlanta's seeming unwillingness to go beyond Jaylen Brown money
4. Schwartz

I'd like to concentrate here on the how since I wrote about the why in the Roster Thread (quick summary below):  

1.  Doesn't marginalize Brunson by adding another guard
2.  Provides an important role for Green (Defensive) by not adding another guard
3.  Is a significant upgrade from Maxi who can play next to KP or next to Powell/WCS because of his diverse skills
4.  Allows KP to play his preferred C position and still keep a second big on the floor
5.  Keeps a 20 a night big on the floor on nights KP sits
6.  Is a significant FA win and fulfills Donnie's prediction that outside shooting wings and PF's will want to play with Luka
7.  Lands what is arguably a third star

If you assume Kawhi and Chris Paul stay put, Collins is arguably the top of the 21 free agent class.  A number of teams with cap room need what he does...including Dallas.  I'd point out San Antonio, OKC, Charlotte and Miami.  Cleveland could get there by shipping off Nance for future picks to pair Collins with Jarrett Allen.  I'm leaving NY (Randall), Toronto (Siakam) and Memphis (JJJ) off this list, but they all have the room to do it also.  It is reasonable to argue Collins isn't worth a Max $28.1mm deal.  But reasonable isn't the GM for any NBA team with cap room.  Between SA and OKC, there is a pretty good chance someone will throw out the full max with the 4th year PO and a 15% trade kicker and up front payments (basically the worst thing possible for Atlanta to match).  

There are issues with all of those teams.  SA, OKC and Cleveland aren't very good and wouldn't be even with Collins.  Charlotte is on the rise, but Collins would play C there.  Plus, Charlotte would have to flush two Schwartz guys, Zeller and Monk, to create room.  Then you have Dallas and Miami...more attractive markets and more competitive rosters.  But, Collins is third fiddle on both.  Note that Collins went to HS in West Palm Beach.

There are two paths to Collins...make the offer and have him sign the offer sheet (at that point Atlanta is in control).  Or, negotiate a S&T before Collins signs an offer sheet with someone else.  You have to have the room to make the offer, so Dallas has to "renounce" Bird rights on THJ and JRich (assuming he opts out).  Miami has to "reject" the Team Option on Dragic.  I make the distinction because a team can un-renounce a player if things don't go their way.  I don't think Miami can "un-reject" its team option.  The other thing to bear in mind is the player has to want to go to a team to sign an offer sheet or agree to a S&T.  Atlanta is not in position to designate a preferred destination if they like Team A's S&T offer better than Team B's.  It is a game of chicken at that point.  Atlanta might love what OKC is offering in a S&T better than what Dallas is offering.  But they can't make Collins agree to go to OKC.  Atlanta's recourse is to say "go ahead and bring me an offer sheet", but with so many suitors, Collins (Schwartz) is likely to do so and then Atlanta is stuck.

Two other notes...because of the size of the raise, Collins has to go to a team with cap room (either buy signing the offer sheet or by S&T).  So, the list of suitors is finite.  Atlanta can't just say, man we'd look great if Boston would send us Jaylen Brown as BYC will kill that deal.  Second, I'm not sure the "they'll just sign him to trade him later" thing works necessarily.  A max for a guy who can't create his own shot is an over-pay and the overpay comes with unattractive features in the offer.  Plus, Atlanta has to take back $20-something million in salary.  They are probably better off taking what they can get in a S&T and keeping their powder dry.

I think Dallas and Miami are in the best position here.  Both can be contenders with that one more significant guy.  Dallas has the Schwartz connection and Miami has the home town thing.  It also helps that there are legitimate threats out there to deliver a max offer sheet if Atlanta doesn't negotiate a deal.  In a S&T situation, Dallas probably offers Maxi and Miami probably offers Achiuwa, who doesn't possess a 3 point shot at this point.  Miami can keep their holds on Robinson and Nunn, but not Dragic.  Dallas can probably retain THJ and WCS in a S&T with Maxi outgoing.  I don't know if Miami will prioritize Collins over a guard (they could sign Lowry outright and not send out Achiuwa).  But, I see them as a bigger threat than most of the other teams with room.  With that said, players like C. Wood and Grant opted for a bigger role on a bad team.

I think the play here is to "announce" agreement at 5:01 on 8/2, but not sign anything.  It can also work if another team "announces" agreement with Collins and Dallas then swoops in to save the day and provide Atlanta a S&T out before the agreement becomes a signed offer sheet.  If Dallas can do this as a Maxi based S&T, we are essentially moving on from JRich and Maxi in exchange for Collins.  That's quite a talent upgrade and Green can do a lot of what JRich does defensively.  The biggest issue appears to be defense, but Collins doesn't necessarily own that.  He's actually the sixth best PF in D-RPM this season if you trust that metric.  But, KP has to take some responsiblity for making this work.  He was once a good defender and suddenly wasn't.  Nothing says he can't suddenly regain that status.  If he could and if/when Green is ready to join DFS as a starter (does he really need to score on a unit with three 20-point scorers who can all hit from the outside?), this could be a good (not great) D and an historically good O.

I think this ship has sailed and sunk at the trade-deadline.

With his caphold instead of his salary, we could have adressed the other issues of our roster.

At this point shuffling our bigs is a luxury we can't afford.
We need to keep THJ or have a replacement.
And we need to add a playmaker. If we dip into cap for anything else we failed.

[F Gump]

I think this ship has sailed and sunk at the trade-deadline.

With his caphold instead of his salary, we could have addressed the other issues of our roster.

At this point shuffling our bigs is a luxury we can't afford.
We need to keep THJ or have a replacement.
And we need to add a playmaker. If we dip into cap for anything else we failed.

"I think this ship has sailed and sunk at the trade-deadline."

I think that's way more likely than not. It's too easy to put blinders on and think that a Mavs attempt to obtain a player under one set of circumstances means they will chase that player when things change. We fail to see that the circumstances themselves may have been the main factor driving the original pursuit.

With Collins, as you noted, getting him at the deadline would have allowed the Mavs to keep everyone else in the summer, staying over the cap. The filler salary of Johnson was a potential part of the equation to allow taking back undesirable salary. In contrast, a summer pursuit would require the Mavs to pick between him and Mavs players for salary, which completely changes the equation.

As you note, now there may be way higher priorities elsewhere on this roster.

[JamesConway]

Yeah this seems like a waste of time, I fully expect their usual FA disaster. Collins will toy with them to get as much money as possible and/or ATL will match. Best hope is a SnT but that’s difficult to pull off due to the lack of assets the FO has failed to acquire/develope.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Collins is clearly the player to get. We already know the Mavs really wanted him. I just don’t see how that happens, realistically.

Me thinks it all depends on what Collins and Atlanta do in the playoffs. They get New York, which will be a interesting series. I just can't see Atlanta moving away from a young valuable piece, that is part of their core. So we'll see how it shakes out.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Just want to point out that the board's collective wisdom is as follows:

No RFA's.  Too risky
No Rim Runners.  KP won't like it and KP/Powell has been a disaster in 120 minutes
No One over 31.  Doesn't fit the timeline.
Must be a playmaker, defender, floor spreader who won't take too many shots from our stars but can make shots when needed.

Among top 25 free agents, the players who (kind of) fit this are:

Norman Powell
Evan Fournier
Dennis Schroder

JRich opts in and WCS stays to play 2nd/3rd Center and we have about $20.6 to spend.  So, our offseason is THJ walks and we spend $20mm on Norman Powell.  If he stays in Portland, we offer the money to Fournier?  I'm OK with that as I see Powell as an upgrade (though I'd note there is very little Norman Powell buzz on this board).

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I don't see Schroder as a fit. And I don't want him here if Mavs intend to keep Brunson. The overlap is too much between the two.
Norman Powell is a catch and shoot guy, I rather retain THJ for that role. Yes, Norman Powell is better than THJ defensively but I would like someone who can handle the ball and play make and not just shoot.

Evan is playmaker and a shot creator. And he can play with Luka or Brunson, or even both in a 3 guard lineup. Fournier is not the perfect fit, primarily because of his defense, but he checks 2 of the Mavs needs in a 6'7" body.

Now if we can figure out how to get Fournier after the Mavs signed Holmes...

[Chicagojk]

Interesting thread.   Despite all the talk that ATL will match offers for Collins, I don't think he is back in ATL next year.   When ATL played their best ball this year, you could make the case he was their fourth most important player.   Add to the fact they have a youngster in Onyeka who they have high hopes for and another guy in Hunter who showed nice promise before getting hurt.  Both of them can play PF.   Maybe they find a way to move off Galinari, but I think the more likely outcome is they find a way not to pay 30 million to Collins and keep some roster flexibility.  

What about Golden State though for a destination for Collins though?   They will certainly be big game hunting this offseason.   I don't think Beal is moved though, and with Wiseman's struggles they will probably need to lower their targets.  Especially if Minny keeps that pick this year.   I am not sure what salary GS could offer with Wiseman and the Minny pick, but I expect Golden State to be very aggressive this offseason.   Could Collins be a target?  

As far as the Mavs, I don't want to say they always screw up in these complicated acquisitions, but it certainly feels like their track record is not great.  When there are a lot of balls in the air and the Mavs front office has to execute a plan with multiple steps to perfection, they are more than likely left standing with nowhere to sit.   I trust a team like Miami to land a plane in these situations.....The Mavs.....not really.  The Mavs have to hit a homerun this offseason.

[StepBackJay]

Among top 25 free agents, the players who (kind of) fit this are:

Norman Powell
Evan Fournier
Dennis Schroder

JRich opts in and WCS stays to play 2nd/3rd Center and we have about $20.6 to spend.  So, our offseason is THJ walks and we spend $20mm on Norman Powell.  If he stays in Portland, we offer the money to Fournier?  I'm OK with that as I see Powell as an upgrade (though I'd note there is very little Norman Powell buzz on this board).

For those 3 guys the incumbents would be heavy favorites to keep them. All 3 guys are on teams that are over the cap and have the player's bird rights.

THJ is almost a lock to stay. I am really interested to see J Rich in this playoff series bc this is where we are going to see what he can do if he's giving full effort. Maybe it will be the exact same or maybe he has another gear he can get to.