John Collins...Our Third Star

[StepBackJay]

I agree with @"DanSchwartzgan" and @"omahen", disagree with @"F Gump". There's enough linkage with Collins to think he is the top target, even if we could argue Mavs would be better served going in a different direction.

I am not worried ab J Rich's opt-in putting the Mavs in any kind of bind. He is a good enough player (flaws and all) that he can get MLE or traded for space.

Maxi to me has to be outgoing to make the numbers work that would allow Mavs to retain THJ and give ATL a reason not to match. Even if ATL doesn't want Maxi (altho he would fit well next to Capela), I am sure a third team would send them a pick. Maxi has a great contract and plays a valuable role

We have kicked around a lot of ideas for guards and just none of them are that appealing. Collins is 23 and an exciting offensive player. Mavs brass will sell him as a third "star."

I disagree with Dan that Miami has any interest in Collins at all. I am pretty confident that they are all-in on Lowry and I expect him to wind up there.

For Mavs there are other options just none of the "sexy" ones are all that realistic. If Mavs whiff on Collins (though I think they will go very far to get him) then I am not even sure what they can do that would excite anybody. I know ppl like Holmes but I don't think they value Holmes the way this board does or the way the market will pay him.

So put me in the Collins or bust camp. Mavs will use a combination of overpay (up to max) + Maxi (the carrot) and I think will put even more assets on the table if they have to just bc I don't see a lot of great backup plans.

Rotation would be something like:

Luka/Brunson/vet min guard
THJ/Burke/Terry
DFS/Green/wing or guard for BAE
Collins/Powell/Melli vet min?
KP/WCS (rMLE)/Bobi (vet min)

[dirkfansince1998]

I think JC is a solid defender. 

But I think the issue is and always will be (as long as he is around) KP. If KP gets his act together, then JC is a good fit defensively. If KP doesn't then NO ONE solves the problem (as we have seen with poor Maxi).

Agree. JC himself is a solid defender. Especially when it comes to man defense against guys of similar size (Randle, Siakam). It´s really difficult to find a good fit next to KP. He is getting bullied by real bigs like Valanciunas, Adams or Embiid. Also cannot defend in space. The unicorn has no real position on defense. In previous seasons his impact as a help defender around the rim was enough to make up for some of it but that´s not the case right now.
Collins wouldn´t solve either issue. Even more outmatched against the 7ft/260+ guys. Not as quick on the perimeter as Maxi or Melli. Already mentioned it a few times. The perfect fit next to KP is probably more of a unicorn than KP himself.

[KillerLeft]

3.  Is a significant upgrade from Maxi who can play next to KP or next to Powell/WCS because of his diverse skills

I think this is probably true, but...Collins is not great, defensively. Probably not as good as Powell on that end, imo. I think the fit with Kleber could be ok, but I think a Powell/Collins combo would be pretty unsuccessful, despite the fact that Collins can shoot. I could be wrong, but I just see that combo being atrocious on defense. 

4.  Allows KP to play his preferred C position and still keep a second big on the floor

So, I think the fit would be almost EXACTLY the same as the KP/Powell fit. When they play together right now, KP is the 4 on offense and the 5 on defense, with the opposite being true for Powell. (I know everyone already knows this - just resetting to be clear). Personally, I don't think Collins solves the issue with KP's opinion, because my guess is that he would be used here in exactly the same way as Powell. Now, since Collins can shoot, maybe the KP/Collins tandem provides for a little bit of variety in how they're used, like maybe they flip roles a bit more often, but on the other hand, Collins will always be the better screener of the two, just like Powell, and the better roller of the two, just like Powell. My guess is that the offense will look very similar to the way it does now, only without those wide-open Powell pump fakes.

EDIT: as I read through this thread, I'm noticing some people whose opinions I respect claim that Collins is a solid defender. That was NOT my conclusion when I studied him a while back, but maybe I came to the wrong conclusion, or maybe he has improved this year. Personally, I'm a little worried about him on that end. Not enough to pass, just enough to keep my eyes open.

[StepBackJay]

I think the offense would look similar but Collins adds another dimension because of his shooting ability.

[KillerLeft]

I think the offense would look similar but Collins adds another dimension because of his shooting ability.

I agree, but he'd STILL be used as the screener, just like Powell, because he's better at it than KP, just like Powell. I really think he'd play the 5 here on offense, just like Powell. It's why I liked him in the first place, because I saw him as a Powell replacement and even an upgrade in some ways. SINCE THEN, we've learned that KP PREFERS playing the 5 on offense with Kleber or DFS spacing for him. I have no idea WHY KP prefers that, because the data seems to tell us that him spacing for Powell/Luka is like a cheat code for the NBA...but there we are. 

I don't think that, specific problem, KP's outlook, gets solved by adding Collins. If anything, he might see it as even MORE competition for the ball.

[StepBackJay]

I agree, but he'd STILL be used as the screener, just like Powell, because he's better at it than KP, just like Powell. I really think he'd play the 5 here on offense, just like Powell. It's why I liked him in the first place, because I saw him as a Powell replacement and even an upgrade in some ways. SINCE THEN, we've learned that KP PREFERS playing the 5 on offense with Kleber or DFS spacing for him. I have no idea WHY KP prefers that, because the data seems to tell us that him spacing for Powell/Luka is like a cheat code for the NBA...but there we are. 

I don't think that, specific problem, KP's outlook, gets solved by adding Collins. If anything, he might see it as even MORE competition for the ball.

Ya KP probably won't like it but then again he doesn't seem to like the Mavs offense or how he's used. I am not sure there is a fix for that. KP wants to set up on the block and get the rock but he's not that great at those opportunities. At any rate I think he's just going to have to deal with it for now. Maybe a nice playoff run gets him more bought in, who knows.

Comparing Powell to Collins, I think we would find that Collins is playable as a starter in the playoffs whereas Powell could get marginalized. The beauty of having them both is you give Luka a roll man all game long which he likes.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think we would find that Collins is playable as a starter in the playoffs 

Damn, he'd better be, given what he would cost us.

[StepBackJay]

Damn, he'd better be, given what he would cost us.

Well ya that's the whole point. DP is a similar player in some ways but JC is like a supercharged version of DP you can play 35 mpg in the playoffs.

[bodhisattva]

I would love it, but I think there is no way.
Atlanta would be idiotic not to resign him.

[Jason Terry]

KP for Turner and SnT McConnell ~$5 million. KP goes to 3rd team and assets from that team to Pacers. This would open up another ~$8 million in space. 

Sign JC for the $28 million max w/trade kicker, PO etc. Either a protected FRP or nothing going to ATL

That would leave ~$14 million for THJ

Luka/McConnell
Brunson/THJ
DFS/Green
Collins/Maxi
Turner/Powell

THJ could get most of the 2/3 backup minutes. Room exception on a guard 

What’s not to like?

[DanSchwartzgan]

 Also, barring some MAJOR (and unexpected) development in the playoffs, we should expect that:

1 Josh Richardson exercises his player option, and
2 WCS's team option is exercised by the Mavs

I don't think either of those is a borderline decision, as we sit, so any planning without those in place feels awry.

Local and national writers that I've read are split on the JRich thing.  It is very much an open question whether he will grab the 3/$29 that is likely his value on the market or take $11.6mm and hope there is something at or above the MLE for him a year from now.  Others have pointed a way to clear WCS's room and keep him if both parties are interested in doing so.  IF both work out that way, there is room to sign THJ for almost $17mm and do the Maxi for Collins deal using cap space.

But, lets say you are right on both counts.  It doesn't take some ginormous disruption to the roster to do this.  Using your assumptions any FA signing of substance requires THJ be let go.  All I'm doing is trading Maxi and taking Collins back into space.  No BYC and no Trade Matching required. In other words, there are ways of doing this whether THJ is kept or JRich.

    Player         Cap Cost
1  Porzingis     31,650,600
2  Collins         28,100,000
3  Powell         11,080,125
4  Richardson  11,615,328
5  Luka           10,174,391
6  DFS             4,000,000
7  WCS            4,100,000
8  Burke           3,150,000
9  Green           2,957,520
10 Brunson       1,802,057
11 Terry           1,517,981
12 Player Hold     916,276
                      
                      111,064,278

Projected Cap  112,400,000
Cap Space          1,335,722

[DanSchwartzgan]

Let me address the issue of Defense:

The concern seems to be that our currently Defensive Rating of 15th isn't good enough.  But if we remove the early season injuries, fat Luka and Covid and start the season March 1st, we have the 8th best D-Rating in the league (6th best O Rating and 6th best Net).  I don't think I'm overly cherry picking the data.  Its not like all has been perfect since 3/1.  Maxi has been pretty bad and we've had plenty of games where we rest guys or the whole team doesn't wake up until the third quarter...and we are 8th in the LEAGUE in D-Rating despite all of that.

I don't think you can argue that Collins is worse defensively that the current version of Maxi...not the idealized version of Max Maxi from days gone by.  But the Maxi who has played since 3/1.  Like I said, Collins is the 6th best D-RPM among PF's this year for those who like that metric.  I will admit that there are other metrics that show him to be below average also.  

I'm not sure I buy that KP forgot how to play D or is too injured to play D.  He's having his most efficient offensive season of his career, so that part isn't broken.  Part of making Collins work has to come from KP becoming KP again (Plus, if we end up doing the F Gump version of this, THJ...arguably our worst defender, won't be here any more).

Collins is the best of Powell and Maxi offensively.  He can hit 3's and post up and PNR and Pick and Pop.  When in with KP, he can do the Maxi thing and let KP "get his" at the five.  But, Collins will require much more attention than Maxi because he can do MUCH more than Maxi.  Collins can also do the things Powell does.   The variety of looks we can throw at a team offensively would be pretty incredible.  Other than Embiid/T.Harris, it is hard to think of the current NBA front court that can do as much as a KP/Collins combo and STILL keep the lane open for Luka.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree with @"DanSchwartzgan" and @"omahen", disagree with @"F Gump". There's enough linkage with Collins to think he is the top target, even if we could argue Mavs would be better served going in a different direction.

We have kicked around a lot of ideas for guards and just none of them are that appealing. Collins is 23 and an exciting offensive player. Mavs brass will sell him as a third "star."

Yes.  I'm uninspired by the choices at guard.  Even if F Gump is right about the JRich opt-in, there is a path to this working...just sub JRich for THJ in your lineup assumptions (and go find a veteran 3 point shooter for your rMLE).

[KillerLeft]

just sub JRich for THJ in your lineup assumptions

[KillerLeft]

Collins is the best of Powell and Maxi offensively.  He can hit 3's and post up and PNR and Pick and Pop.  When in with KP, he can do the Maxi thing and let KP "get his" at the five.  But, Collins will require much more attention than Maxi because he can do MUCH more than Maxi.  Collins can also do the things Powell does.   The variety of looks we can throw at a team offensively would be pretty incredible.  Other than Embiid/T.Harris, it is hard to think of the current NBA front court that can do as much as a KP/Collins combo and STILL keep the lane open for Luka.

I agree with the above, to an extent. But, like @"Kammrath" said in another thread, Collins can't be Kleber and Powell at the same time. Sure, he possesses those skills at all times, but each action has to have a primary focus, and your many fine posts pointing out how well the Luka/Powell pick and roll works with KP spacing (at least that's what I got from them) have left me feeling like that is the way to go, if this KP thing has any chance of working. 

It's nice to have one player capable of playing both roles, but if KP isn't about standing in the corner to open up the lane for others, then I don't see how any problem (if you're in the camp who believes there is one) gets solved. Either they do what you've been asking them to do, which I think is run Luka/Collins like they used to and currently are with Luka/Powell with KP providing space, and KP hates it, or they go back to the five-out thing and marginalize a lot of what I believe people like about Collins by putting him mostly in the Kleber role. 

Further, is combining Powell/Kleber into one player all that much of a step forward if you end up paying him right at or above the sum of Powell/Kleber's salaries? I mean, he can only play one position at a time, so it's not that helpful to combine them, to my way of thinking. 

Maybe I'm missing something. I've been on the Collins train for a while, so I don't want to come off like I hate it or him. My overall point is that until the team and KP get on the same page, I'm not sure what changing the players around him is going to do for them. If KP isn't happy about this, or worse, if he really is incapable of being the difference making defender (at the 5) that we all believed the Mavs were buying, I don't think this helps.

[Scott41theMavs]

I agree with the above, to an extent. But, like @"Kammrath" said in another thread, Collins can't be Kleber and Powell at the same time. Sure, he possesses those skills at all times, but each action has to have a primary focus, and your many fine posts pointing out how well the Luka/Powell pick and roll works with KP spacing (at least that's what I got from them) have left me feeling like that is the way to go, if this KP thing has any chance of working. 

It's nice to have one player capable of playing both roles, but if KP isn't about standing in the corner to open up the lane for others, then I don't see how any problem (if you're in the camp who believes there is one) gets solved. Either they do what you've been asking them to do, which I think is run Luka/Collins like they used to and currently are with Luka/Powell with KP providing space, and KP hates it, or they go back to the five-out thing and marginalize a lot of what I believe people like about Collins by putting him mostly in the Kleber role. 

Further, is combining Powell/Kleber into one player all that much of a step forward if you end up paying him right at or above the sum of Powell/Kleber's salaries? I mean, he can only play one position at a time, so it's not that helpful to combine them, to my way of thinking. 

Maybe I'm missing something. I've been on the Collins train for a while, so I don't want to come off like I hate it or him. My overall point is that until the team and KP get on the same page, I'm not sure what changing the players around him is going to do for them. If KP isn't happy about this, or worse, if he really is incapable of being the difference making defender (at the 5) that we all believed the Mavs were buying, I don't think this helps.

In other words, trade KP and get Collins. Glad we agree.  

[F Gump]

Yes that's the math if you use a cap space sign-and-trade and forego THJ to get Collins. That's the EASY way, not the way that I spoke of being disruptive, and its cost is THJ + Maxi + "something else" (presumably the Hawks are going to ask for more than just Maxi to do that deal).

What adds disruptiveness to the mix is trying to do a deal requiring trade matching by both teams, as an avenue to keep THJ and the big MLE and the BAE, and work from above the cap.

Either way, given the salary, the sizable questions about defense, and the cost in assets and what those assets provide, it feels like all of those negatives make the value of a Collins deal very iffy.

[dirkfansince1998]

I don't think you can argue that Collins is worse defensively that the current version of Maxi...not the idealized version of Max Maxi from days gone by.  But the Maxi who has played since 3/1.  Like I said, Collins is the 6th best D-RPM among PF's this year for those who like that metric.  I will admit that there are other metrics that show him to be below average also.  

Maybe not worse when it comes to overall impact. Although overall the Mavs are still better on defense when Maxi is on the floor. Hawks are worse with Collins on the floor.
It´s about the positional need next to KP. KP has two big problems on defense. He gets bullied by more traditional bigs. He cannot defend in space. Maxi is basically a 6`10 wing. The healthy version was the Mavs best option against Kawhi last year. This year he isn´t quite as good but still the best perimeter option among Mavs bigs and clearly a better perimeter defender than Collins. He makes up for KPs lack of mobility. Including pre rotations and switches to keep KP out of the pick and roll. Melli plays a similar role on defense. Powell and WCS aren´t quick enough.

Lineup data really tells the story in this case:

KP/Kleber +86 in 524 minutes +7.9per100,
KP/Melli +5 in 41 minutes +5.7per100
KP/WCS -2 in 121 minutes -0.8per100
KP/Powell -18 in 104 minutes -8.5per100

I think Powell is a better defender than Collins and KP/Powell lineups have a horrible 126.2 D-Rating.

[F Gump]

In other words, trade KP and get Collins. Glad we agree.  

That really feels like the most practical way of looking at the possibilities - do you prefer
* KP with his defensive flaws (and some degree of defensive ability in some ways), or
* Collins, able to do generally the same things on offense and with lesser rebounding and defensive aptitude, apparently.

A KP-Collins pairing doesn't seem to add enough to be worth the cost to pursue. so, Collins INSTEAD of KP somehow?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Collins can't be Kleber and Powell at the same time. Sure, he possesses those skills at all times, but each action has to have a primary focus, and your many fine posts pointing out how well the Luka/Powell pick and roll works with KP spacing (at least that's what I got from them) have left me feeling like that is the way to go, if this KP thing has any chance of working. 

It's nice to have one player capable of playing both roles, but if KP isn't about standing in the corner to open up the lane for others, then I don't see how any problem (if you're in the camp who believes there is one) gets solved. Either they do what you've been asking them to do, which I think is run Luka/Collins like they used to and currently are with Luka/Powell with KP providing space, and KP hates it, or they go back to the five-out thing and marginalize a lot of what I believe people like about Collins by putting him mostly in the Kleber role. 

 

Two thoughts...I think this line of thinking is too binary.  NBA offenses are more complex than that.

Second, I think the team would be worlds better if Powell could also do Maxi things and if Maxi could also do Powell things...no?  As it stands, no team covers Powell standing behind the 3 point line and no team expects Maxi to do anything but shoot a 3 and straight line dribble.  Imagine the possibilities if both could do everything the other can do.  Then add the stuff Collins can do that neither Powell nor Maxi can do.

---

 
What adds disruptiveness to the mix is trying to do a deal requiring trade matching by both teams, as an avenue to keep THJ and the big MLE and the BAE, and work from above the cap.

Thankfully, that wasn't contemplated in my post.