Offseason wings: What to do with THJ and J-Rich?

[Thukydides]

I thought this question is so huge, that it deserves it´s own thread. Also I feel like the discussion around it has evolved in a few different threads. Furthermore I wanted to add a poll.

So here are the facts:

Current salary for 2020/21:

J-Rich - 10.865 mio - he has a player option for next year at 11.615 mio 
THJ - 18.975 mio - he is a UFA

Cap-hold: 
J-Rich (if opted out) - 16.5 mio 
THJ - 28,5 mio (crazy!) 

1st scenario: J-Rich opts in

Given his poor play, I have become more and more hesitant, if J-Rich will in fact opt out. I still think him opting out is more likely, as there isn´t really a  good FA market and a few franchises with cap room. It certainly isn´t the worst market to be a FA. 
Still, let´s assume he opts in. That would mean his 11.615 mio would become guaranteed (I don´t want to discuss, what that means for Mavs FA ambitions in this thread.) If you keep THJ, then the offseason is basically over. So I assume J-Rich basically will decide, what we´ll do with THJ´s caphold, as I can´t see us holding THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in.

2nd scenario: J-Rich opts out

This is, where it gets really interesting. I could see arguments for any strategy here except keeping both capholds on the book. I think in this case it comes down to either renouncing both or renouncing one of them. This leads us to the crucial question: What do we pay THJ or J-Rich?

In my eyes, there are only these realistic outcomes: 

- J-Rich opts in and we let Timmy go.

- J-Rich opts out and we renounce Timmy: Given J-Rich would be interested in staying, I wouldn´t pay him more than 8 mio per year. He´s shown 
nothing this year that suggests he deserves a double digit contract.

- J-Rich opts out and we keep Timmy on the books: Given THJ would be interested in staying, I would offer THJ 12 mio per year. His defensive limitations are real and as much as I enjoy him as a offensive spark plug, with Luka and KP the margin for error on the defensive end is just too small to pay him a bigger portion of our cap.

- Both opt out and we just let them walk.

What do you think about these outcomes? Do you actually see us keeping THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in?

Edit: Of course there is the possibility of renouncing the cap holds AND still resigning players. But this seems not very likely, as you can´t go over the cap in this case.

[ClutchDirk]

What...no option for voting to give them both Max contracts?...

[Branduil]

I would not prioritize either one. Both have shown they can't really be relied upon as starters next to Luka, so they are 6th men at best. It's also possible keeping them will block the further development of Brunson and Green.

The Mavs must upgrade the starting guard and rim-roller positions, at minimum. Anything less is an unacceptable failure after the last two offseasons.

[Thukydides]

I would not prioritize either one. Both have shown they can't really be relied upon as starters next to Luka, so they are 6th men at best. It's also possible keeping them will block the further development of Brunson and Green.

The Mavs must upgrade the starting guard and rim-roller positions, at minimum. Anything less is an unacceptable failure after the last two offseasons.

Yeah that´s somewhat, where I am at, too. But there´s one issue: can you actually improve the starting guard position this off-season? And if you can´t, wouldn´t it be better to keep one of the two?

[omahen]

I think playoffs will decide and it is too early for final judgement. I am not so down on JRich. If Mavs want to make a significant upgrade, none can or will be resigned, no matter the cost. At this point, this seems like most logical development to me. The team seems to need a higher ceiling.

I think both will command higher wages. I don't understand why would JRich decline his option to resign for 3 mil less.

[Thukydides]

I think playoffs will decide and it is too early for final judgement. I am not so down on JRich. If Mavs want to make a significant upgrade, none can or will be resigned, no matter the cost. At this point, this seems like most logical development to me. The team seems to need a higher ceiling.

I think both will command higher wages. I don't understand why would JRich decline his option to resign for 3 mil less.

I 100% agree with the raising the ceiling part. But wouldn´t this mean, letting both of them go?

Regarding J-Rich´s salary: I just don´t see he can demand 10-12 mio again. Is he better than Jeremy Lamb or Kyle Anderson or Clarkson? Not to me.

[Kammrath]

I think playoffs will decide and it is too early for final judgement.

Too early?

We have a 48 game sample size with JR. 

We have a 60 game sample size with THJ and an additional 90 games in the two previous seasons.

So many teams have made mistakes by giving guys contracts based on a flash in the pan, outlier playoff performance. We KNOW what these guys are. Do I hope they hit a hot streak in the playoffs? Yes. But we KNOW what they are in a larger sample size and need to decide on that and not on a 4-12 game playoff sample. 


Anyways, my personal opinion is that I am 100% OUT on JR and 85% OUT on THJ (unless he gives a good discount to come back). Under $10M and I am definitely listening on THJ. Over $10M and I am quickly looking at my other options around the league.

[omahen]

I 100% agree with the raising the ceiling part. But wouldn´t this mean, letting both of them go?

I said exactly that

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Regarding J-Rich´s salary: I just don´t see he can demand 10-12 mio again. Is he better than Jeremy Lamb or Kyle Anderson or Clarkson?

Anderson and Clarkson signed their contracts while they were considerably less umpactful. They both have huge breakout seasons, sort to speak.

[Thukydides]

I said exactly that

Yeah, it seemed like you were somewhat backpedalling on the J-Rich part.

[omahen]

Too early?

Yes, because of two reasons. 

1) If Mavs perform really well in playoffs, why would you break the team?
2) Playoffs are a whole different story. I am affraid DFS and Kleber will look even more limited as opponent defenses will be increased by a level or two. I think JRich will look better. 

Even if I look at current situation, I think JRich new salary will be around current number. Full MLE at least. Will not be surprised if he gets more. THJ can go up to 60/4 - despite his bad defense, he still is one of the elite shooters. He needs a couple of good games to wash away bad April. Let's not forget he looked awesome in February/March.

[HAguiar95]

Letting both walk and sign someone impactfull with the money, regardless of position. The only thing I still can't agree on is that Hardaway should earn more than J-Rich. I really can't see why we would choose Timothy over Josh (maybe friendship?), because if we go only by on the court stuff, there's really one choice.

1000% OUT on the chucker. Not even MLE money.

J-Rich can stay if he opt-in. If not it's goodbye as well.

[ClutchDirk]

I just want a capable SG and a capable PF...anyone not named Luka KP DFS Brunson can be traded or not resigned...

[Chicagojk]

I think you let both go.  And I like Hardaway.   This roster is just not good enough and I think if you keep either, it limits you on how you can build/improve this roster.  This team needs to measure themselves to the Lakers, Nets, Utah, Denver, etc.   Right now their roster is not at that level...and it needs to close the gap quickly.   

With that being said, Dallas front office needs a rock solid plan this offseason and needs to execute it to perfection.  I don't want them going into the offseason with 30 different scenarios they are involved with.  It seems like this is what gets them in trouble.   Have a doable plan and attack it.    Those bread crumbs should already been laid in indirect conversations.    And they will need to sell their vision to these players/owners to close the deal.  That is another thing I don't feel is their strong point.   Mavs may need a closer in these situations.

[dirkfansince1998]

I think if the Mavs let both walk away they have to go for a bigger rebuild and trade KP. Last chance to get the fitting pieces around Luka before his max extension.
If they decide to keep both they can operate over the cap. Keep two solid (above average bench/below average starter) rotation wings and upgrade the roster with trades and exceptions. With my low expectations for a Mavs free agency that is not the worst case scenario.
Really difficult to come up with a scenario where the Mavs get rid of both and add two quality starters to replace them without a bigger cap clearing move or trade.

[SleepingHero]

Is there another option where we SnT both of them to get picks or what have you?

Because imagine some desperate team like ATL or Charlotte that needs a shooting guard. We could easily give them THJ and get a 1st and a 2nd in return. 

Jrich too. At least 2 2nds.

We can then turn around and throw ALL the picks at Washington for Beal. All of them. 2025/2027/2029/THJ 1st/4 2nds. 8 picks right there. Thats James Harden level package.

[chaparral]

This season Luka made his 2nd All Star Game.  So let's look at Mavs history to see what the MBT will do this offseason.  Going back to another young Euro Mav after his 2nd All Star season.  In 2002/03 Dirk made his 2nd All Star game and then it took the Mavs 3 more seasons to make the finals in 2005/06.  Only one player other then Dirk was on that 2002/03 team and it was Adrian Griffin.

Now I'm not saying the Luka led Mavs will make the finals in 2023/24.  But the Mavs should let Hardaway and Richardson go and use the money for the best FA possible (or RFA).  Then look to trade Porzingis for a Vet Starter/filler.  And then use the MLE for the another starter.

And the player on this current team that should stay until 2024 is Green - he will be the Griffin in a few years.

[KillerLeft]

If I'm running the team, Richardson is GONE, either by sign-and-trade or just by letting him tip on out. 

On Hardaway, I'm tempted to claim they're not going to do better, and that they'll end up re-signing him, but I'd kick the tires on all scenarios before deciding.

[SleepingHero]

If I'm running the team, Richardson is GONE, either by sign-and-trade or just by letting him tip on out. 

You have to get assets for JRich or else you let Seth go for the 36th pick.

[Thukydides]

Very interesting and quite different takes so far. This reflects my feeling aswell. Such a hard decision to make.

[omahen]

You have to get assets for JRich or else you let Seth go for the 36th pick.

Is cap space an asset? Assuming we use 34 mil of cap space better than signing another "Wright".