04-24-2021, 09:56 AM
From Kevin Pelton Mailbag (ESPN):
"Is Diana Taurasi a good comparison for what we've seen from Luka Doncic as a rising star in the NBA?"
-- David, Park City
Comparisons for Doncic have been such a popular pastime that my colleague Tim MacMahon and I teamed up to write a story about them during the 2020 playoffs, but the leading scorer in WNBA history is a fun new one.
As a starting point to quantify this idea, let's look at an updated list of most the similar seasons based on a modified version of my SCHOENE projection system, which looks at several key statistical indicators, height and weight. (The full SCHOENE projections incorporate weighted performance over three seasons; this version uses only a single season.)
PLAYER SEASON SIMSCORE
LeBron James 2020-21 97.9
LeBron James 2019-20 97.1
LeBron James 2018-19 96.9
James Harden 2020-21 96.9
LeBron James 2017-18 96.1
LeBron James 2014-15 95.9
LeBron James 2016-17 95.8
LeBron James 2015-16 94.8
Kobe Bryant 2004-05 94.8
James Harden 2016-17 94.5
As I noted last year, LeBron James' current production is easily the best match for Doncic. Although these stats are all standardized for league averages, the evolution of a modern "heliocentric" style of play with everything running through a star capable of creating shots for himself and others means that there's a strong recency effect. You have to go down to No. 11 (Grant Hill) to find a season from the 1990s and all the way back to No. 20 (Larry Bird, just ahead of Magic Johnson) to find one from the 1980s.
OK, so now let's run the same exercise using WNBA seasons standardized for those league averages:
PLAYER SEASON SIMSCORE
Diana Taurasi 2013 93.8
Diana Taurasi 2004 92.8
Candace Parker 2018 92.6
Candace Parker 2016 92.4
Diana Taurasi 2005 92.1
Diana Taurasi 2010 91.1
Diana Taurasi 2014 90.5
Undoubtedly, Taurasi is the closest match for Doncic the WNBA has seen, with Candace Parker recording the two other seasons exceeding a similarity score of 90. (It's also evident from the years involved that the WNBA hasn't made the same kind of move toward heliocentrism.) Still, the Taurasi comparison doesn't seem quite as apt statistically as the one to James for a couple of reasons.
First, while Taurasi is tall for a WNBA point guard at 6-foot, she's still shorter than the average player in the league. At 6-foot-7, 230, Doncic is bigger than the average NBA player. Doncic is also more of a triple-double threat than Taurasi, who has only one season (2009) rebounding at better than a league-average rate. Conversely, Taurasi's career-high 55% 2-point shooting in 2013 was relatively more impressive than Doncic's 57% mark this season because the league average mark was so much lower in the WNBA at the time.
Ultimately, Taurasi isn't considered the WNBA's GOAT (rightly or wrongly) primarily because of her statistical production. That's more a testament to Taurasi's history of big performances on the biggest stages, including three national championships at UConn and three WNBA titles with the Phoenix Mercury. Despite his impressive track record of big shots by age 22, Doncic has a long way to match that.
"Is Diana Taurasi a good comparison for what we've seen from Luka Doncic as a rising star in the NBA?"
-- David, Park City
Comparisons for Doncic have been such a popular pastime that my colleague Tim MacMahon and I teamed up to write a story about them during the 2020 playoffs, but the leading scorer in WNBA history is a fun new one.
As a starting point to quantify this idea, let's look at an updated list of most the similar seasons based on a modified version of my SCHOENE projection system, which looks at several key statistical indicators, height and weight. (The full SCHOENE projections incorporate weighted performance over three seasons; this version uses only a single season.)
Most Seasons Similar To Luka In 2020-21
PLAYER SEASON SIMSCORE
LeBron James 2020-21 97.9
LeBron James 2019-20 97.1
LeBron James 2018-19 96.9
James Harden 2020-21 96.9
LeBron James 2017-18 96.1
LeBron James 2014-15 95.9
LeBron James 2016-17 95.8
LeBron James 2015-16 94.8
Kobe Bryant 2004-05 94.8
James Harden 2016-17 94.5
As I noted last year, LeBron James' current production is easily the best match for Doncic. Although these stats are all standardized for league averages, the evolution of a modern "heliocentric" style of play with everything running through a star capable of creating shots for himself and others means that there's a strong recency effect. You have to go down to No. 11 (Grant Hill) to find a season from the 1990s and all the way back to No. 20 (Larry Bird, just ahead of Magic Johnson) to find one from the 1980s.
OK, so now let's run the same exercise using WNBA seasons standardized for those league averages:
WNBA Seasons Similar To Luka In 2020-21
PLAYER SEASON SIMSCORE
Diana Taurasi 2013 93.8
Diana Taurasi 2004 92.8
Candace Parker 2018 92.6
Candace Parker 2016 92.4
Diana Taurasi 2005 92.1
Diana Taurasi 2010 91.1
Diana Taurasi 2014 90.5
Undoubtedly, Taurasi is the closest match for Doncic the WNBA has seen, with Candace Parker recording the two other seasons exceeding a similarity score of 90. (It's also evident from the years involved that the WNBA hasn't made the same kind of move toward heliocentrism.) Still, the Taurasi comparison doesn't seem quite as apt statistically as the one to James for a couple of reasons.
First, while Taurasi is tall for a WNBA point guard at 6-foot, she's still shorter than the average player in the league. At 6-foot-7, 230, Doncic is bigger than the average NBA player. Doncic is also more of a triple-double threat than Taurasi, who has only one season (2009) rebounding at better than a league-average rate. Conversely, Taurasi's career-high 55% 2-point shooting in 2013 was relatively more impressive than Doncic's 57% mark this season because the league average mark was so much lower in the WNBA at the time.
Ultimately, Taurasi isn't considered the WNBA's GOAT (rightly or wrongly) primarily because of her statistical production. That's more a testament to Taurasi's history of big performances on the biggest stages, including three national championships at UConn and three WNBA titles with the Phoenix Mercury. Despite his impressive track record of big shots by age 22, Doncic has a long way to match that.