HALLELUKA: Luka Clinches All-NBA 1st team. 4th in 5 years

[Dundalis]

I'm curious about some analysis of Luka's shooting. Mechanics, form, everything. We all know improvement in his three point shooting and free throws will have a huge say in his development into what we expect him to become. To me his form is very good. Do we think it's just more repitition, a change in his form, a mental thing, or what, because I give his shooting stroke, I don't see why his percentages are where they are, even considering his lack of assisted shots.

The best I can tell, Luka's mechanics are just fine. Repetition of his current shot will improve the shots. He now fully understands the shots he will be getting in games. He is awesome at everything around the basket. 

Two important things: I think his free throw problems are a direct result of how hard he has to work in general and how much focus is on him doing everything. I think he should shoot free throws, 2-3 at a time, during intense workouts when he is nearly exhausted. He has already improved his conditioning to near excellence given all he is asked to do. Now he needs to get himself an automatic mode he goes into, like other clutch free throwers have, in the middle of an exhausting and pressure packed game. I don't think making 30 in a row when fresh really helps Luka because what he has to do is simply different from just about anyone else. 

Second, his shooting will improve when he gets better perimeter shots. That involves another shot creator or creators or ball movement that results in him getting more open shots without always having to create nearly all of the shots. When that happens, his better shots will get him to a higher percentage. He has already improved his percentage very effectively being unstoppable in going to the rim.

I understand the concept of conditioning and the part it plays. I also understand that he can do better with more assisted buckets and having another creator take the load off. But he might not get the luxury of the second thing for a while. As mentioned, he has plenty of games where he's clearly exhausted and shoots great from the line throughout the whole game (like game 1), and plenty of games where he shoots terrible right from the start with clearly plenty of energy. The conditioning argument for shooting FT's for a pro athlete just rings a bit hollow to me. Also in terms of the number of unassisted baskets, his shot percentage on assisted baskets was actually quite poor this season, although I get that the sample size is much smaller compared to his unassisted shots and that you expect a higher percentage on catch and shoot in the long run. I do kinda think these two things (conditioning and more assisted baskets) are a bit too easy of an answer that doesn't quite match up with what is happening in games, and I wonder if it's more of a pure mental issue. Haven't checked it out statistically, but it does seem to me that if he's cold early, he stays cold (not talking about his inside scoring which he can switch to to bump his overall scoring numbers, just the shooting only numbers), which speaks to mental over physical.

It really is his pretty ridiculous dominance at scoring around the basket for a below the rim player that has basically carried his scoring and pretty much all his efficiency. It's also probably helped him pick up the ankle knocks given he can't rely as much on his shooting, including the mid range, because if he wants to score when his 3's aren't dropping, he has to drive deep into the paint to actually be in scoring position. I get mid range shots are hated by analytics, but what seems to get missed in that narrative, is that in the clutch where the sample size is small but the importance is greatest, it's often not the highest value shots you need (3's and layups), but just the highest percentage shots in general, because you just want to keep adding points to stay in range and to avoid the team affecting emotional down brought on by a scoring draught. This is amplified even more in the playoffs. It's why Kawhi and his mid range game was so prevalent and effective for the Clippers particularly towards the end of games when no one else was scoring. It's a low value shot, but it's a higher percentage shot than a 3, and doesn't require getting deep paint position, which is more difficult and takes more energy. Hopefully the analytics drum doesn't erradicate this from his workout regime. It's also why I wouldn't have much of an issue if we went after someone like DeRozan, even though everything the team preaches would hate his skillset.