11-08-2021, 03:37 PM
(11-08-2021, 03:23 PM)burekemde Wrote: Kammrath, It appeared to me that you were interpreting the +/- due to mainly poor play by Luka, and like a fact statement. I was trying to discuss this, because as ML writes, that stat is quiet noisy, and it is hard to interpret a players contribution for that single number, since 4 other players are on the court. Even if substituted by others at times. That makes it little less noisy yes, but still too noisy. It depends also on those other players again. Another factor is the scheme. I think there is no substantial evidence in that single stat, that this is Lukas fault. But it may contain it if analysed further. I think by combining many different stats, more correct interpretations can be made, as single stats are often noisy. Although even in this case with combined statistics, there will always be an unaccounted factor that might bring serious uncertainty to the interpretations.
I was also not trying to state the opposite as a real fact: that Luka is not at fault for this. He very well may be, as he is indeed involved in those lineups. He is a real suspect here. I wrote indeed that Luka may be fault at this. It's important to look at it from both sides and discuss what factors are/may be contributing to this and maybe we could figure more about it.
I think for every stat to understand it, it's important to dig more in and bring other stats up that may explain it further. For me, it is that we get so many open shots, almost leading the league. If Luka is playing so bad, how can we get that many open shots? I think this also factors in the +/- number. What would Lukas +/- even if make those open shots even at an average NBA rate? He would have several more assists, better +/-, the team would have more wins perhaps. Another thing is the scheme where the spacing seems very off. It may suit some other PG, but not another PG, that plays differently. To me it's clear that the movements on offense are different, but I don't have a stat to highlight this with, it's just by watching that my intuition is that some timing is off. I could be wrong, just my view. I'm trying to understand that stat you bring up, and all factors that contribute to it. A third thing is that Luka is doubled like crazy. He might be the most doubled player in the NBA, I don't follow other teams much, but I do know that Luka is doubled almost every play. And if the hypothesis proposed here is that is playing so bad, then why do opponents keep doubling him? Is there even slight possibility perhaps that those lineups with Luka do not work because the scheme of the team is not adequate to deal with those situations of doubling Luka? In order to break the double team, the spacing, timing of the other 4 players on the court, must be great, it's a challenging situation, and you need to be prepared for it, and they must adapt to the doubling strategy of the opponent. When the double team comes, the other 4 need to move to different spots, in order to take advantage of the double team. If this is not done, by all 4, then the double team will work well, with the outcome that we don't score the points when Luka is in the game and his +/- decreasing. You can substitute other players in and play with Luka, same will happen,. You can get Luka off to bench, Brunson or Frank will come in. Totally new scheme set by the opponents. No doubling on Frank or Brunson as the risk/reward estimation is not enough to double. Dallas plays then another scheme (standard one), and so do opponents defense . Different scheme and spacing and maybe more efficient offense that then lead to non-Luka lineups producing better? Could this be the explanation, or just a part of the explanation together with the other parameters above (bad shooting on opens shots)?
And for my analogy with med playing with MJ, Kobe, Robinson and Shaq. For Luka there are also players he plays the most with, that number is not 4 but maybe 6, 7, or 8. What if they all are missing their open shots? What if they are also not adapting to the double teams to Luka well enough? What if they all are moving wrong as the plays are not set in yet properly to deal with double teaming? I'm just trying to picture that this +/- is due to multitide of players on the court playing together. If the team is winning, that number will be positive.
My personal view is that this is the strongest, most fit Luka to date and I followed him for long time. To me this looks like a new offense being installed and there are substantial number of plays in every game where some timing and spacing is just off. The doubling on Luka actually works. It works so well, that they keep doubling him. The team cant take advantage of that. Well, at least until the Celtics game. We have seen open shots by Bullock and DFS started to go in against Boston. We have seen what that resulted in. We have seen after those open shots were made that Celtics did give some single matchups to Luka, that he did take advantage of. If in future Luka starts to get single matchups all the way the 3 to the basket, and all other 4 positions denied open shots, and if we then would be losing in those lineups - this situation would get me far far more worried. This would more indicate that Luka is at fault.
It's like a Chess match, and since this game is so complex, I like to try look at all factors involved. If this problem persists deep into the season, I would be more worried. Because if the scheme doesn't work, it is to some degree also up to Luka as a leader with time to adapt that with Kidd over time and adjust. But we will never know for sure. It's just fun to think about it and discuss.
This is a good post and I agree with a lot of it.
A few thoughts:
1) I have repeatedly stated that Luka's teammates missing wide open shots is a HUGE talking point. I have pointed this out a LOT this season. This is not Luka's fault at all. In fact I would go so far as to say that the only reason Luka's on/off offensive rating is -1.0 and not something like +8.0 or more is because his teammates are missing open threes at an absurd rate. His teammates need to shoot better and he needs better offensive teammates.
2) My issue with Luka's on/off rating is by far on the defensive end. He is a hard-to-conceptualize -23.3 on/off defensively (next closest is THJ at -16.9). When Luka has played the Mavs team defense has given up 113.1 pts, which would be 29th in the league, only better than CHA at 113.4. When Luka has sat the Mavs team defense has given up 89.9 pts, which would be 1st in the league by 7.1 pts over GSW (who is at 97.0). In other words the team defense for the Mavs when Luka has sat has been incredibly elite and when he has played the team defense has been functionally the worst in the NBA. Note I keep saying team defense. I am not saying this is 100% on Luka, but this is incredibly concerning AND my own eyes tell me that on-the-ball Luka has been good this year, but off-the-ball he has been a horrible defender (lazy getting back, distracted on rotations, and moving slowly and without the energy he needs).
3) Most of all you and I just do not see eye to eye on Luka's body and conditioning. I think he is in the second worst shape of his life (next only to the beginning of last season). I think he is moving as poor as he has in his career. I think he is carrying as much fat as he ever has. I just don't understand how you think he is in good shape. But alas, that is a subjective thing largely so we will just have to disagree.