HALLELUKA: Luka Clinches All-NBA 1st team. 4th in 5 years

[burekemde]

For the record:

I do not think there is only one way to interpret the data of Luka's lineups being outscored and the non-Luka lineups succeeding. I think it is a concerning fact and IMO it points to some poor play by Luka (but that is my interpretation of something that is disputable). It may not persist and I sure hope it doesn't. I think if it persists the Mavs record will eventually tank, I don't think Luka lineups can consistently get outscored while the Mavs win games. But I might be wrong.

Kammrath, It appeared to me that you were interpreting Luka's +/- due to as a poor play by Luka, and like a fact statement. I was trying to discuss this, because as ML writes, that stat is quiet noisy, and it is hard to interpret a players contribution to that single number, since 4 other players are also on the court. Even if substituted by others at times. That makes it little less noisy yes, but still too noisy. It depends also on those other players again that come in. Another factor is the scheme. I think there is no substantial evidence in that single stat, that this is Lukas fault. But it may contain it - if analysed further. I think that by combining many different stats, more correct interpretations can often be made, as single stats are in isolation often noisy. Although even in this case with combined statistics, there will always be an unaccounted factor that might bring serious uncertainty to the interpretations.

I was also not trying to state the opposite as a real fact: that Luka is not at fault for this. He very well may be, as he is indeed involved in those lineups. He is indeed a real suspect here. I wrote indeed that Luka may be fault at this. It's important to look at it from both sides and discuss what factors are/may be contributing to this and maybe we could figure more about it. 

I think for every stat to understand it, it's important to dig more in and bring other stats up that may explain it further. For me, it is that we get so many open shots, almost leading the league. If Luka is playing so bad, how can we get that many open shots? I think this also factors in the +/- number. What would Lukas +/- be even if make those open shots even at an average NBA rate? He would then have several more assists, better +/-, the team would have more wins perhaps. Another thing is the scheme where the spacing seems very off. It may suit one type of PG, but not another PG, that plays differently. To me it's clear that the movements on offense are different, but I don't have a stat to highlight this with, it's just by watching that my intuition is that some timing is off.  I could be wrong, just my view. I'm trying to understand that stat you bring up, and all factors that contribute to it. A third thing is that Luka is doubled like crazy. He might be the most doubled player in the NBA, I don't follow other teams much, but I do know that Luka is doubled almost every play. And if the hypothesis proposed here is that is playing so bad, then why do opponents keep doubling him? Is there even slight possibility perhaps that those lineups with Luka do not work because the scheme of the team is not adequate to deal with those situations of doubling Luka? In order to break the double team, the spacing, timing of the other 4 players on the court, must be great - it's a challenging situation, and you need to be prepared for it as a team and not as individual, and everyone must adapt to the doubling strategy of the opponent. When the double team comes, the other 4 need to move to different spots, in order to take advantage of the double team. If this is not done, by all 4, then the double team will work well, with the outcome that we don't score the points when Luka is in the game and his +/- decreasing. You can substitute other players in and play with Luka, same will happen. You can get Luka off to the bench, and Brunson or Frank will come in and lead the offense. Totally new scheme set by the opponents then. No doubling on Frank or Brunson as the risk/reward estimation is not enough to double. Dallas plays then another scheme (standard one), and so does the opponents defense. Different scheme and spacing and maybe more efficient offense that then lead to non-Luka lineups producing better? Could this be the explanation, or just a part of the explanation together with the other parameters above (bad shooting on opens shots)? 

And for my analogy with me playing with MJ, Kobe, Robinson and Shaq. For Luka there are also players he plays most with, that number is not 4 but maybe 6, 7, or 8. What if they all are missing their open shots? What if they are also not adapting to the double teams to Luka well enough, what if this is a team issue of dealing with this? What if they all are moving wrong as the plays are not set in yet properly to deal with double teaming? I'm just trying to picture that this +/- is due to multitide of players on the court playing together. If the team is winning, that number will be positive.

My personal view is that this is the strongest, most fit Luka to date and I followed him for long time. To me this looks like a new offense being installed and there are substantial number of plays in every game where some timing and spacing is just off. The doubling on Luka actually works well. It works so well, that they keep doubling him. The team cant take advantage of that. Well, at least until the Celtics game. We have seen open shots by Bullock and DFS started to go in against Boston. We have seen what that resulted in. We have seen after those open shots were made that Celtics did give some single matchups to Luka, that he did take advantage of. If ine th future Luka starts to get single matchups all the way from the 3 all the way to the basket, and there is nobody else in the paint helping out and doubling, and all other 4 positions spread out and denied open shots, and if then we then would be losing in those lineups - this situation would get me far far more worried. This would more indicate that Luka is at fault than the current situation.

It's like a Chess match, and since this game is so complex, I like to try look at all factors involved. If this problem persists deep into the season, I would be more worried. Because if the scheme doesn't work, it is to some degree also up to Luka as a leader with time to adapt that with Kidd over time and adjust. But we will never know for sure. It's just fun to think about it and discuss.