HALLELUKA: Luka Clinches All-NBA 1st team. 4th in 5 years

[burekemde]

people who have clearly already made up their minds.

I agree with this ML. It can be hard to get discussions going when definite statements are made, based on this statistic, such as: "this is the actual truth". Or: this player "is bad". We don't read many "might be" thoughts or questions to others. I do it also my self sometimes (the "is definitely" stuff). I guess it is indeed more inviting for discussions to make less definite statements and thus open up possibilities that we can change each others opinion and exchange knowledge. Otherwise, it does not lead to anything productive. It quickly becomes "you vs. me conversation".

For instance, in science and scientific publishing, that has evolved over centuries to develop a system to invite for discussions with others (in some ways similar to a forum, as it is exchange of ideas and interpretations of data - equivalent to data here in this case would be the games), and also to limit over-interpratation of data, it was developed to only make definite conclusions like those above ("it is"), when there is close to 100% definite evidence, and from multiple different independent experiments and methods to support the statement.

To say that LD is a bad defender based on a statistic with very small sample size and some stats that involve 5 other players on the team. We might want to be more cautious making such definite statements.

In this case if this was a scientific publication, and with such limited and inconclusive data, one would instead need to state that: these stats indicate that this player might have negative effect on defense, but due to small sample size and multiple unexplored parameters, further experiments need to be performed to evaluate the players effect on defense and as a defender. Basically this is an indication, but we don't know, and we are open for other views, until more evidence comes in.

In my personal opinion, every stat has serious flaws. These flaws are too big, to commit me for opinions for statistics in the NBA. Because its a team game. Maybe in single person sports such as tennis, i don't watch it, but i could imagine statistics work better or probably even really well.  But in a team game, no matter the stat, ( and maybe with the only exception being free throws as this particular part of the game is not a team performance), all the remaining stats are essentially combination of 5 players playing together and impacting each other. And in addition, it is also impacted by the quality of opposition, the coaching, scheme, how well the team and opponent is rested, home/away, the crowd, etc. etc. etc. If you play defense together and next to Powell, and your offensive scheme is new and players don't execute it well, the chances are big your are going to be a negative in -/+ and at very least at defense as well. If you play next Gobert, your stats might be different.

To add an observation, the angles that Luka takes to the basket to me seem identical to those in the past years, but the angles and spots for his teammates to me seem quiet different and even confusing (players standing in the lanes of defenders etc. and making it easier for defenses to cover). This all results in defenders clogging lanes for Luka. Also not only this above spatial difference, but also the temporal one. Different timing to the flow and movement of players. We have seen many times an ackward temporal execution of the offense to the weird (and to me even comical) point where Luka is forced to pass it to Powell or DFS on perimenter that are by the way well covered and they are asked to create something as if they were guards with ball skills. We have never ever seen that in previous seasons something strange as that. That alone might indicate a difference in the new scheme and that either these plays are bad, or that they are improperly executed at least at current stage.

I try to make my opinions based on what I see, and I rarely if ever look at stats. I see Luka as a considerably improved defender, he is becoming great and at times elite in man to man defense. He to me seems as in the best physical shape of his career, this is the strongest and most fit Luka I have seen to date. His stamina at this moment seems like the one he usually has mid-season or even late season in previous years. This is why I believe his one to one defense has been better.

In my view Luka was always understimated as defender in the previous years as well, but Luka seems to have taken the next step this season. The last game, with Maxi and KP out, I noticed that Luka was perhaps our best "big" - he in my view did better job protecting the paint and contesting the shots under basket more and better than even Powell and WCS. Not that this says much, but still, he does well to help there. With regards to team defense and switches:  He indeed does sometimes come late, more than one would like, but there might be a story behind these plays and it might not all be on Luka, that might be important to also look at to understand why these occur. The first switch to recover is easier than the second and third etc. Often, there is a switch before or even two or three, and the likelihood of recovery is harder and harder. As the distances to recovery might grow and it is more confusing where to run and cover. How tough were those switches to make? The explanation might again part of a scheme how players move. Its much harder to evaluate the team defense, by eye or by stats. It is on other hand more straightforward to evaluate a one to one defense. Although this also has many parameters that can impact it. That being said, there might be a point that he is the cause sometimes at least and comes too late. I would like to see these situations more in depth and try to understand.

Luka is (here I feel fine using "is" and not "might be") struggling with his 3 point shot and we could be a lot more critical there. Although we have seen it in the past, that he starts slow and the shot comes over the course of the season. I think the mid range and in the paint, his touch seems great as usual.

In general to me: This feels a lot of scheme being off on offense. Combined with really really bad inside presence on defense from Powell and WCS as well as Bobi. Maxi, KP are needed for that and then less help defense will be needed. If Maxi/KP are around the paint, they dont need the same help as does Powell, and with less help, less movement and switches and less complex movements will maybe needed from the others.