Josh’s D

[Jommybone]

Yep. It was an atrocious offensive game for Josh. I am not defending his O. If it doesn’t improve, they will cut the cord.

[cow]

Yep. It was an atrocious offensive game for Josh. I am not defending his O. If it doesn’t improve, they will cut the cord.

Unless he opts in. 

[embellisher]

Unless he opts in. 

Well, at least if he opts in he'll be relatively cheap.

[FunkBoreland]

Was his D passable against Boston? His O and T.O. almost helped Boston take the game away.

[HAguiar95]

Was his D passable against Boston? His O and T.O. almost helped Boston take the game away.

His D was decent, I liked DFS better. But there's at least three people ahead of him to blame for our collapse in the 4th. Carlisle, Doncic, Hardaway. Doesn't help him (an others) that we started our offense with 6s on the clock on a LOT of possesions.

[ItsGoTime]

His D was decent, I liked DFS better. But there's at least three people ahead of him to blame for our collapse in the 4th. Carlisle, Doncic, Hardaway. Doesn't help him (an others) that we started our offense with 6s on the clock on a LOT of possesions.

And it takes Luka 3 of those seconds to get around the double team.

[MFFL]

Unless he opts in. 

He's going to opt out

Richardson is only making a little over $11.6m next year. Crowder signed a 3 year / $29m contract and that's the WORST that Richardson could do. Nobody is turning down $18m guaranteed

[cow]

He's going to opt out

Richardson is only making a little over $11.6m next year. Crowder signed a 3 year / $29m contract and that's the WORST that Richardson could do. Nobody is turning down $18m guaranteed

I wish him good luck with his next team. 

[ThisIStheYear]

It’s unbelievable how many games Josh has like this where he bricks shot after shot after shot after shot. My gosh, he’s a 90% free throw shooter. How on earth can he be so bad from the floor so often.

[Kammrath]

And his D is still inconsistent and mostly average to below average.

[soog]

Let's look at the on/off stats again for defense....

All season
On: 113.7 (1056 mins)
Off: 107.7 (965 mins)
Net: -6.0 (3rd worst on the team behind Luka and KP who is the worst by far)

His rating with Luka is 114.4, with KP is 116.3....so him playing with those guys has brought down his numbers some.



But let's look at the more recent stretch where the team is playing better D overall. Has JR's impact improved? 


Last 15 games
On: 109.1 (480 mins)
Off: 104.8 (240 mins)
Net: -4.3 (5th worst on team)

With Luka 108.8, with KP 107.4...so in the last 15 games his rating with Luka/KP has been better, so they haven't been bringing him down.


Last 10 games
On: 110.0 (332 mins)
Off: 103.3 (148 mins)
Net: -6.7 (worst on the team)

With Luka 108.5, with KP 107.1...so again Luka/KP are NOT hurting his numbers in the last 10 either.


There might be some things I have not seen that could explain some of what is going on, but when a player is dead last on the whole team (or close to) you can conclude quite confidently that this player is hurting the team in that area in some form or fashion (or his mesh with certain teammates is hurting the team).


Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

Completely agree with this.  He’a better than the turnstile D we may be used to, and yes he puts out decent effort, but his defense is really pedestrian as is his offense.

He is replaceable

[HAguiar95]

Let's look at the on/off stats again for defense....

All season
On: 113.7 (1056 mins)
Off: 107.7 (965 mins)
Net: -6.0 (3rd worst on the team behind Luka and KP who is the worst by far)

His rating with Luka is 114.4, with KP is 116.3....so him playing with those guys has brought down his numbers some.



But let's look at the more recent stretch where the team is playing better D overall. Has JR's impact improved? 


Last 15 games
On: 109.1 (480 mins)
Off: 104.8 (240 mins)
Net: -4.3 (5th worst on team)

With Luka 108.8, with KP 107.4...so in the last 15 games his rating with Luka/KP has been better, so they haven't been bringing him down.


Last 10 games
On: 110.0 (332 mins)
Off: 103.3 (148 mins)
Net: -6.7 (worst on the team)

With Luka 108.5, with KP 107.1...so again Luka/KP are NOT hurting his numbers in the last 10 either.


There might be some things I have not seen that could explain some of what is going on, but when a player is dead last on the whole team (or close to) you can conclude quite confidently that this player is hurting the team in that area in some form or fashion (or his mesh with certain teammates is hurting the team).


Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

While I do agree with the point about J-Rich's defenstye and overall impact (I'll wait till the playoffs to really bash him), I can't ignore your final point. J-Rich has been a major disappointment, negative impacts on offense and defense. But Timothy has been by far our worst defender and I don't get the J-Rich hate/THJ love (maybe because he puts up points against bad teams or because he's a likeable guy celebrating Luka), especially when we had an entire year of the latter combined with his pathetic performance in the playoffs.

Using LEBRON, to me the best stat there is to rate a player's impact on his team (role, usage, deployment, scheme and fit), not his overall talent, it meets the eye test:



Obviously it doesn't take into account all the COVID stuff (Josh had it and THJ had to play with a deflated lineup) buth Josh and Timothy are our worst players in terms of impact and both will hit Free Agency. Use this money to find a starter player that fits this system (do your job FO), this is our last chance before Luka's big contract. I don't mind overpaying as long as the player has a positive impact. Be aggressive and don't fall in love with our boys in blue. They should be plan C or D this summer. People don't want to pay an old guy like Conley/Paul/Lowry/DeRozan (big parts of their team's success), but keep in mind that THJ is 29 and J-Rich is 28. It's not like they're a part of our core or something.

Overall: I'm on the keep NEITHER here camp this summer[b]. [/b](unless I'm proven wrong on the postseason)

[cow]

Overall: I'm on the keep NEITHER here camp this summer[b]. [/b](unless I'm proven wrong on the postseason)

Unless Timmy is on a sweetheart deal, I'm with you.  Neither > THJ > JRich

[ThisIStheYear]

It seems pretty safe to say now that Josh won’t be here next year, whether he opts in or not.  Maybe he’ll be open to a sign and trade.

[Jommybone]

Wish we had a defensive stat that measured (1) is he assignment correct and (2) did his assignment score? If we did, Josh would have a whole bunch of yes/no’s, even while defending all stars. But we don’t. So we get statistical analysis that fails to capture his contributions entirely. It’s like we have economists opining on Josh’s D making idiotic assumptions like, assuming all players will have roughly an equivalent amount of time, given a large enough sample, guarding the opposition’s best scorer.

[cow]

Wish we had a defensive stat that measured (1) is he assignment correct and (2) did his assignment score? If we did, Josh would have a whole bunch of yes/no’s, even while defending all stars. But we don’t. So we get statistical analysis that fails to capture his contributions entirely. It’s like we have economists opining on Josh’s D making idiotic assumptions like, assuming all players will have roughly an equivalent amount of time, given a large enough sample, guarding the opposition’s best scorer.

That's often the problem when analyzing a player only on stats and not with your eyes.  Unless the player is terrible, can you provide enough stats to support whatever narrative you are trying to push.

[Kammrath]

That's often the problem when analyzing a player only on stats and not with your eyes.  Unless the player is terrible, can you provide enough stats to support whatever narrative you are trying to push.

This is just 100% false.

It is the OPPOSITE. The "eye test" allows any damn narrative a person wants. Stats constrain our narratives and at least force us closer to the truth than if we ignored them.

[cow]

This is just 100% false.

It is the OPPOSITE. The "eye test" allows any damn narrative a person wants. Stats constrain our narratives and at least force us closer to the truth than if we ignored them.

Disagree.  I'm not advocating 100% "eye test", but it's equally silly to rely only on stats.  For example, I can rattle of stats that make THJ look great (offensive) or stats that make him look like a liability (defensive), it just depends on the narrative I want to paint.  Stats are a useful too, but they aren't the only tool.

[Kammrath]

I can rattle of stats that make THJ look great (offensive) or stats that make him look like a liability (defensive), it just depends on the narrative I want to paint.

But that IS the truth...THJ has been GOOD on O this year and BAD on D (especially recently). His O impact has slipped as well as of late. 

The stats tell you that even if you don't watch. But watching is VERY helpful to understanding full context.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

This is just 100% false.

It is the OPPOSITE. The "eye test" allows any damn narrative a person wants. Stats constrain our narratives and at least force us closer to the truth than if we ignored them.

Especially on defense.  People have an idea what a good defensive player is supposed to "look like", and work backward from the conclusion.   I honestly think Richardson has a lot of defensive cred because of the Halo Effect of building his reputation on his time with Riley/Spoelstra and "Heat Culture" while just being kinda long.    IMHO, he's just not a fast twitch explosive athlete to stay in front of really athletic ball handlers, and why he gets lit up even by players who have lost a step  like John Wall.