Record Prediction Thread! Where Will Mavs Rank After First Month?

[SleepingHero]

Alrighty folks, with the season less than 10 days away, I figured we could get a prediction thread for the first 16 games.

I'd love to post a poll, but since it only allows 10 options I can't really do it.

Here's the schedule and what I think the Mavs will be by November 24th. 

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---W
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---W
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L

Mavs have to me 7 easy must wins in the first 16 games, versing teams like NYK twice, the Cavs twice, and Memphis. If the Mavs want to make the playoffs, these have to be easy wins. There is a good mix of strong teams as well, and I think how good we'll be this year will depend on how we look against teams in the upper echelon of the standings like Denver and Houston. Another team I think that will be the litmus test for the Mavs will be the Spurs, as many mocks has them fighting for a similar position as us in the standings. 

I have us at 11-5 in the first month, which is a .68 win percentage which is much higher than a 50 win pace, but given how many easy teams we're facing I think that's about right.

[omahen]

Alrighty folks, with the season less than 10 days away, I figured we could get a prediction thread for the first 16 games.

I'd love to post a poll, but since it only allows 10 options I can't really do it.

Here's the schedule and what I think the Mavs will be by November 24th. 

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---W
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---W
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L

Mavs have to me 7 easy must wins in the first 16 games, versing teams like NYK twice, the Cavs twice, and Memphis. If the Mavs want to make the playoffs, these have to be easy wins. There is a good mix of strong teams as well, and I think how good we'll be this year will depend on how we look against teams in the upper echelon of the standings like Denver and Houston. Another team I think that will be the litmus test for the Mavs will be the Spurs, as many mocks has them fighting for a similar position as us in the standings. 

I have us at 11-5 in the first month, which is a .68 win percentage which is much higher than a 50 win pace, but given how many easy teams we're facing I think that's about right.

This first stretch will be extremely important, as they have lots of easy games, at least on the paper. If they don't start well, it will be that much more difficult to catch up.

Let me break it up like this:
- WAS, CLE2, NYK2 and MEM are a must (these are probably 4 out 5 worse teams - Charlotte the one missing) - 7 games. Let's say they lose once, so 6 victories in total.
- ORL, POR, PEL, TOR, HOU, BOS and SAS - I would put them at 50 %, so 3 wins
- LAL (if healthy), DEN and GSW might be too strong

All together, 9 victories would be a minimum for me, anything less is a very bad start and not a good indicator for the season. 
Up to 11 victories is good, above is excellent.

[SleepingHero]

Alrighty folks, with the season less than 10 days away, I figured we could get a prediction thread for the first 16 games.

I'd love to post a poll, but since it only allows 10 options I can't really do it.

Here's the schedule and what I think the Mavs will be by November 24th. 

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---W
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---W
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L

Mavs have to me 7 easy must wins in the first 16 games, versing teams like NYK twice, the Cavs twice, and Memphis. If the Mavs want to make the playoffs, these have to be easy wins. There is a good mix of strong teams as well, and I think how good we'll be this year will depend on how we look against teams in the upper echelon of the standings like Denver and Houston. Another team I think that will be the litmus test for the Mavs will be the Spurs, as many mocks has them fighting for a similar position as us in the standings. 

I have us at 11-5 in the first month, which is a .68 win percentage which is much higher than a 50 win pace, but given how many easy teams we're facing I think that's about right.

This first stretch will be extremely important, as they have lots of easy games, at least on the paper. If they don't start well, it will be that much more difficult to catch up.

Let me break it up like this:
- WAS, CLE2, NYK2 and MEM are a must (these are probably 4 out 5 worse teams - Charlotte the one missing) - 7 games. Let's say they lose once, so 6 victories in total.
- ORL, POR, PEL, TOR, HOU, BOS and SAS - I would put them at 50 %, so 3 wins
- LAL (if healthy), DEN and GSW might be too strong

All together, 9 victories would be a minimum for me, anything less is a very bad start and not a good indicator for the season. 
Up to 11 victories is good, above is excellent.

9-7 isn't a bad start at all,  that's a 56 win%, which puts them on pace to be just below 50-32. I'm surprised you have LAL over HOU in terms of strength.

I think outside Lebron or AD, Lakers are really weak imo, while Houston has a strong supporting cast around Harden/WB.

[omahen]

Alrighty folks, with the season less than 10 days away, I figured we could get a prediction thread for the first 16 games.

I'd love to post a poll, but since it only allows 10 options I can't really do it.

Here's the schedule and what I think the Mavs will be by November 24th. 

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---W
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---W
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L

Mavs have to me 7 easy must wins in the first 16 games, versing teams like NYK twice, the Cavs twice, and Memphis. If the Mavs want to make the playoffs, these have to be easy wins. There is a good mix of strong teams as well, and I think how good we'll be this year will depend on how we look against teams in the upper echelon of the standings like Denver and Houston. Another team I think that will be the litmus test for the Mavs will be the Spurs, as many mocks has them fighting for a similar position as us in the standings. 

I have us at 11-5 in the first month, which is a .68 win percentage which is much higher than a 50 win pace, but given how many easy teams we're facing I think that's about right.

This first stretch will be extremely important, as they have lots of easy games, at least on the paper. If they don't start well, it will be that much more difficult to catch up.

Let me break it up like this:
- WAS, CLE2, NYK2 and MEM are a must (these are probably 4 out 5 worse teams - Charlotte the one missing) - 7 games. Let's say they lose once, so 6 victories in total.
- ORL, POR, PEL, TOR, HOU, BOS and SAS - I would put them at 50 %, so 3 wins
- LAL (if healthy), DEN and GSW might be too strong

All together, 9 victories would be a minimum for me, anything less is a very bad start and not a good indicator for the season. 
Up to 11 victories is good, above is excellent.

9-7 isn't a bad start at all,  that's a 56 win%, which puts them on pace to be just below 50-32. I'm surprised you have LAL over HOU in terms of strength.

I think outside Lebron or AD, Lakers are really weak imo, while Houston has a strong supporting cast around Harden/WB.

Considering how weak opponents they have in this stretch, 9 wins are a minimum for me to make it a decent start. If we consider ourselves to be a playoff contender

Houston has 5 good players, the rest are very questionable and I just can't see Harden-WB match up working. Well, perhaps in the regular season. Davis-James should work excellent and they still have decent back-ups.

[Lucky Luciano]

Let me take a shot at this real quick....


WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---W
DEN---L
LAL---L
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---W
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---L
GSW---W
CLE---W
HOU---L


I can see us doing a 12-4 here. I gave a grown up evaluation of the better teams imo but just expecting us to win all the easy games is easy to do but it's definitely not likely. So say we drop 1 or 2 of the easy games we'd likely be around 10-6 or 11-5 after this stretch.

I have us winning against Boston and Portland yet losing to LAL and SAS all based on a feel. So very similar predictions wise with those 4 games going a little different. Oh yeah and I think we can win a early season game against Golden State for sure as in I expect it. Too many changes and too little chemistry and rotation changes to give them the full respect they will be getting by late season if Curry goes into out of his mind mode...

[LifeAquatic]

9 - 7

[mavsman]

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---L
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---L
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L


I have 9-7 as well.

[Hypermav]

https://nypost.com/2019/10/18/bettors-ca...advantage/

Hype? What hype?

[SleepingHero]

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---L
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---L
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L


I have 9-7 as well.

Interesting you have GSW winning as well. Any particular reason why? I think GSW is going to take a massive step back this year considering they've lost their superteam. Klay is out till March, Durant is gone, and they've lost quite literally all that was left of their depth when Iggy was traded and Livingston retired. 

They have no big men at all besides Loony who they hope will be ready by season opener. Omari Spellman hurt his back. GSW will be totally reliant on Curry and Russell, who's fit is questionable at best. 

I think early in the season will be the most perfect time to play the Warriors, when they haven't meshed and have no size.

[ThunderMav]

I say 13-3, 12-4 possibly all depending on that last game vs Rox.  I think Rox will struggle for many reasons so win that game and its 13-3.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Thunder Mav, I enjoy the positive prediction! Given I hope we can get to plus 16 and a 48-32 record, getting to plus 10 early would really help. Given the schedule, t is possible.

[ThunderMav]

Posted this in generic thread but I think Rox will struggle this year.  By struggle I don’t mean miss playoffs but not top of heap.  This is first time Russ is walking into someone elses system and its a huge change.  He had a bad shooting year last year too.  Teams will still work to stop Harden and I think their depth is less good this year.  

And why would you have your key starters in a meaningless PS game 4th qtr?

https://twitter.com/gifdsports/status/11...3203553285

[ClutchDirk]

From Zach Lowe:

[b]20. Dallas makes the playoffs, along with the Clippers, Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Rockets, Blazers, and Spurs. Golden State finishes 9th[/b]

Gulp.

The easiest prediction -- the most likely outcome -- is to take last season's field and replace Oklahoma City with the Lakers. This column is for the wild ideas -- the gut feelings that scare you, but don't go away.

Doncic and Porzingis complement each other on both ends. The supporting cast complements them. Rick Carlisle will get the most out of this team. Some interloper is going to surprise. It might be the Pelicans; if Zion Williamson is a star from day one, he is going to dunk on every postseason projection that excludes New Orleans. It might be the Kings. I'm taking Dallas.

[MrGoat]

I say 9-7, maybe 10-6. I won't go game by game because there will likely be some surprises, we'll beat someone or two we don't expect to beat and we'll probably blow at least one of those four games against New York and Cleveland. How well we shoot on a given night will be important because I still don't trust our defense even after those last two preseason games

[IamDougieFresh]

I'm going to go with 11-5 just so I can have bragging rights because no one has said that yet =)

Also everyone in media predicting the Pelicans and Thunder to be ahead of the Mavs should be fired!

[Mavs2019]

Let me add the H/A and B2B, since I guess that matter a little...

vs. WAS: Win
@ NOP: Loss
vs. Por: Win
@ Den: Loss
vs. LAL: Loss
@ Cle: Win
vs. Orl: Win
vs. NYK: Win
@ Mem (B2B): Loss
@Bos: Loss
@NYK: Win
vs. Tor: Win
vs. SAS: Win
vs. GSW: Win
vs. Cle: Win
@ Hou: Loss
@LAC: Loss
@Phx: Loss

10-8

[Luka_Magic]

Let me add the H/A and B2B, since I guess that matter a little...

vs. WAS: Win
@ NOP: Loss
vs. Por: Win
@ Den: Loss
vs. LAL: Loss
@ Cle: Win
vs. Orl: Win
vs. NYK: Win
@ Mem (B2B): Loss
@Bos: Loss
@NYK: Win
vs. Tor: Win
vs. SAS: Win
vs. GSW: Win
vs. Cle: Win
@ Hou: Loss
@LAC: Loss
@Phx: Loss

10-8

You've got to figure KP is going to sit either the NYK or MEM game. It's doubly unfortunate scheduling as I'm sure he's itching to play against the Knicks but it would probably be better for the Mavs to sit Porzingis in that game as he'll be needed more against the Grizz.

As for the earlier tilt against New Orleans you have to figure with Zion going down we can be installed as favorites in that matchup.

[dirkfansince1998]

The Mavs need to avoid loses against the weaker teams. They cannot afford to lose against teams like the Suns or Hawks like they did last year.
Nevertheless I expect them to lose at least one of the game against the Cavalers, Suns, Knicks, Grizzlies, Magic or Wizards.

I also think that the Mavs win at least two of the home games against the Spurs, GS, Raptors, LA and Portland. Road games will be tough.
Overall I go with 8-10 wins.

[SportPsychMav]

13:3

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---W
DEN---L
LAL---L
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---W
NYK---W
TOR---L
SAS---W
GSW---W
CLE---W
HOU---W

[mavsman]

WAS--W
PEL---W
POR---L
DEN---L
LAL---L
CLE---W
ORL---W
NYK---W
MEM--W
BOS---L
NYK---W
TOR---W
SAS---L
GSW---L
CLE---W
HOU---L


I have 9-7 as well.

Interesting you have GSW winning as well. Any particular reason why? I think GSW is going to take a massive step back this year considering they've lost their superteam. Klay is out till March, Durant is gone, and they've lost quite literally all that was left of their depth when Iggy was traded and Livingston retired. 

They have no big men at all besides Loony who they hope will be ready by season opener. Omari Spellman hurt his back. GSW will be totally reliant on Curry and Russell, who's fit is questionable at best. 

I think early in the season will be the most perfect time to play the Warriors, when they haven't meshed and have no size.

They have Curry and Draymond and we are going to be working on our Chemistry. Its mostly because of our issues than theirs. I think if we play them later during the year I pick us.