2019-20 Around the NBA: Archived

[StepBackJay]

So Kamm I know you love stats but there's also the eye test and Powell never did enough for me there, at least consistently. Sometimes I would see a good defensive sequence but it was usually related to a team defensive effort rather than great individual play from Powell. I just think he's a mediocre defender overall. He can't bother or block shots in the interior and isn't a perimeter defender either. You just hope he can be in the right spot to help the team defense. Again I think he's going to look a lot better off the bench with that unit than where he was.

[Mavs2019]

I think his defensive contributions are greatly underappreciated. He is actually a positive defensive contributor whole carreer.

DRPM for Powell...
19-20: +0.57
18-19: -0.77
17-18: +1.76

Very clever.

+0.57 ranks 32nd amongst centers in DRPM.
- 0.77 ranks 55th amongst centers in DRPM.
+1.76 ranks 8th amonst centers in DRPM.

Just because there is a plus, doesn´t make it great.

[KillerLeft]

https://tenor.com/babH5.gif

[SleepingHero]

What the hell are we arguing about, then?!??

Stats do not paint an entire picture. You can almost always find a statistic that can back up an argument. For example, when the Mavs managed to get MKG off the waiver wire, Kamm found stats that supported MKG could be a sneaky good shooter and he'd be a positive impact player on the offensive end. I vehemently denied it. 

Well lo and behold once MKG actually played here, he averaged a whopping 0.9 ppg on 30% from the field, 0% from 3. He actually bumped up his production almost 2 fold in the playoffs, averaging 2.3ppg on 29% from the field. 

Just because there are advanced stats that paint Powell as a net positive defensive player, does not mean he is actually a good defender. He is consistently bullied out of the paint by any player larger than him. His rim defense is often times non-existent. His positioning is poor. He is too small to matchup against true 5's, and too slow to matchup against smaller 4's. He is an overall average team defender though. He makes the right rotation most of the time and he hustled whenever he was on the court. He is an average PnR defender, ranking in the 52nd percentile. Right next to our old pal Deandre Jordan and Clint Capela.  

Powell got his contract because he is a great dude, fantastic locker room presence, and was an ELITE roll man. He also was an intriguing option to play next to KP, where theoretically they both could fit. But so far no player has ever returned from an achilles injury and was ever the same. Dominique Wilkins is the only one that came close.  You can't plan for a career ending like injury, and Powell wasn't as bad as many paint him out to be. BUT we also cannot prop him up like he was an absolute essential part of this team. As soon as he went down his roll was filled better by KP. His injury allowed a much better defender and shooter in Maxi to get more minutes. And a lob threat was easily replaced on a minimum contract with WCS.

Mavs would be wise to dump Powell in any way possible while taking as little salary as they can back.

[Kammrath]

+0.57 ranks 32nd amongst centers in DRPM.
- 0.77 ranks 55th amongst centers in DRPM.
+1.76 ranks 8th amonst centers in DRPM.

DP is not asked to play defensive center on the Mavs very often, much more defensive PF. Ranking him for centers is not fair, that is KP. 

So ranked among PFs who played more than 20 games and 20+ mins/per (because RPM requires a significant data set to be reliable):

+0.57 ranks 17th 
-0.12 (I did a typo, this is the right number) ranks 21st  
+1.76 ranks 4th

So 17th, 21st, and 4th the last three years? 

1) NO ONE is saying he is a defensive anchor, but he is NOT hurting the defense generally speaking. 

2) Defense is played as a TEAM and so I will always continue to harp that individual defense is irrelevant either way, what matters is how you mesh with a team. And DP does that good enough to be a solid contributor.

[KillerLeft]

https://gfycat.com/easygoingarcticamericancrow

[Kammrath]

Kamm found stats that supported MKG could be a sneaky good shooter and he'd be a positive impact player on the offensive end.

I put forward that MKG shows enough statistically in different areas of his career to...

1) Be an ADEQUATE shooter if he makes small improvements and sticks to things like catch and shoot corner threes.

2) Not have such a negative impact on offense to make him unplayable. He has shown the ability to fit within a successful TEAM offense on the NBA level. 


These things are STILL true. But that does not (and I never said so) mean they WILL happen with the Mavs. He may not find a fit here. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have potential.

And to jump to a conclusion on MKG from either of our seats and his fit on the Mavs at this point is presumptuous at best and idiotic at worst. So let's not do that.

---

One last thing on DP:

A positive is all that matters for our discussions, because it means he doesn't HURT the team. And if DP is even a neutral or even slight negative on D, we ALL know his O impact outweighs that for this team.

My overall point:

DP and the extension was a GOOD get for the Mavs because of elite offense, solid defense, and great lockerroom/leadership/chemistry presence. 

The injury sucks but we cannot blame the Mavs for that. AND there is still a chance for him to live into his contract post injury. Achilles recoveries get better all the time and if anyone is going to do it, it will be DP with his work ethic. Let's give it a chance and realize the sky is not falling yet.

[SleepingHero]

These things are STILL true. But that does not (and I never said so) mean they WILL happen with the Mavs. He may not find a fit here. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have potential

I agree. MKG will finally realize his offensive potential when he plays for the Shanghai Sharks next year.

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DP and the extension was a GOOD get for the Mavs because of elite offense, solid defense, and great lockerroom/leadership/chemistry presence. 

And I disagree that the extension was good for the Mavs. Powell was an elite offensive player. He was a master at his craft. Maybe top 5 in being a roll man in the entire league. And I also agree he was and IS a fantastic lockerroom presence. But we diverge at the solid defense. At best he's average, at worst he's a turnstyle. 

Either way, there was still NO good reason for the Mavs extend Powell. Especially since they're putting so much of an importance on 2021 cap space, and Powell's deal runs right through that. I don't blame the Mavs or Powell for his unfortunate injury. It's not his fault. But it IS the Mavs fault for signing Powell to a deal to the same terms as his last one, in which he was already slightly overpaid for. And they continued that same pay scale for multiple years right through a free agency where they're prioritizing cap space. It was idiotic. Especially when they literally didn't have to do that at all.

[StepBackJay]

I love Powell discussions, might even warrant its own thread. One of the big things I wanted to figure out is how WCS compared to Powell. Now WCS didn't start much and he ended up only playing in 13 games. The sample size was much smaller than we thought it would be bc of Covid and WCS missing a lot of time. I am still curious how it compares to Powell. I doubt the sample size is large enough but I am of the mind that WCS gives you most of what Powell would over a full season for a fraction of the price. WCS also brings shot blocking which Powell doesn't have in his bag.

[Scott41theMavs]

My overall point:

DP and the extension was a GOOD get for the Mavs because of elite offense, solid defense, and great lockerroom/leadership/chemistry presence.

Then your overall point is an abominable one, because the Mavs were bidding against themselves. Zero of the other 29 teams in the league would have dumped that much money into Powell. That objectively means that he was a significant albatross the day that extension was signed. It was a binary error on the front offices part. In the NBA, you don't reward players based on past contributions (such as the offcourt stuff I believe you are overrating - that would be great if Powell were a worthy playoff rotation player. he is not, and you don't pay that kind of money for that stuff), but rather pay them market value or slightly more based on what you believe they can do moving forward. Powell is goshawful at the single greatest task of bigs - defending in the paint. He does okay on the perimeter, but can bother the shot of zero NBA players, even guards, at the rim. That's a problem that has to be worked around, and one that none of the other non-tanking teams in the NBA would put into the starting lineup. And before you throw KAT at me, he may not play any defense, but he can make shots at the rim more difficult by his size alone.

The MBT didn't need the Achilles tear for the extension to be one of the ten gravest errors in franchise history. And this is a franchise with a lot of errors.

[Kammrath]

Zero of the other 29 teams in the league would have dumped that much money into Powell.

1) This is complete and total, 100% speculation.

2) The Mavs would have had ACTUAL intel on what interest and offers DP would have had, while you and I have absolutely ZERO.

I do not think the MBT doesn't make mistakes....but I seriously do not understand how people with such LITTLE information (readers of a message board!) can seriously claim to have more insight and understanding than the people who have access to exponentially MORE information than we do.

[Scott41theMavs]

Zero of the other 29 teams in the league would have dumped that much money into Powell.

1) This is complete and total, 100% speculation.

2) The Mavs would have had ACTUAL intel on what interest and offers DP would have had, while you and I have absolutely ZERO.

I do not think the MBT doesn't make mistakes....but I seriously do not understand how people with such LITTLE information (readers of a message board!) can seriously claim to have more insight and understanding than the people who have access to exponentially MORE information than we do.

To me, it's simple easy-to-see common sense.

If there might have been any other team in the NBA willing to pay Powell that kind of money (insert hysterical laughter gif), then that's great for the Mavs if he comes back 90% or better, because it means he'll be easy to trade!

[Kammrath]

if he comes back 90% or better

If he comes back to that level, I would NOT want to trade him. Who else could we get to be a lob partner for Luka to that level?

DP is not nearly as good as Mak trolled, BUT DP is a very positive NBA player that has a good home in DAL. I do not understand how he has become the scapegoat when the data all point the other way.

[KillerLeft]

https://tenor.com/besji.gif

[Scott41theMavs]

if he comes back 90% or better

If he comes back to that level, I would NOT want to trade him. Who else could we get to be a lob partner for Luka to that level?

DP is not nearly as good as Mak trolled, BUT DP is a very positive NBA player that has a good home in DAL. I do not understand how he has become the scapegoat when the data all point the other way.

Because fans have eyes?

[Flipper]

My overall point:

DP and the extension was a GOOD get for the Mavs because of elite offense, solid defense, and great lockerroom/leadership/chemistry presence.

Then your overall point is an abominable one, because the Mavs were bidding against themselves. Zero of the other 29 teams in the league would have dumped that much money into Powell. That objectively means that he was a significant albatross the day that extension was signed. It was a binary error on the front offices part. In the NBA, you don't reward players based on past contributions (such as the offcourt stuff I believe you are overrating - that would be great if Powell were a worthy playoff rotation player. he is not, and you don't pay that kind of money for that stuff), but rather pay them market value or slightly more based on what you believe they can do moving forward. Powell is goshawful at the single greatest task of bigs - defending in the paint. He does okay on the perimeter, but can bother the shot of zero NBA players, even guards, at the rim. That's a problem that has to be worked around, and one that none of the other non-tanking teams in the NBA would put into the starting lineup. And before you throw KAT at me, he may not play any defense, but he can make shots at the rim more difficult by his size alone.

The MBT didn't need the Achilles tear for the extension to be one of the ten gravest errors in franchise history. And this is a franchise with a lot of errors.

The Nuggets night have been willing to pay Powell that much money considering Plumlee is getting 4 million more a year.

[KillerLeft]

Yeah, you can say that they shouldn't have given the guy the contract, but it seems ludicrous to say they were the only ones bidding and they just pulled that number out of thin air.

[Kammrath]

Because fans have eyes?

That just feels like derogatory, ad-hominem drivel. 

We all watch the games, please don't act like those with your opinions are the only ones who do. Come on. We can do better than that.

[dirkfansince1998]

Refs did everything to help the Lakers. Phantom offensive fouls against Jokic. Meanwhile LeBron is pushing off on every single drive. Obviously without a call. Howard and McGee are allowed to use some MMA moves against Jokic but the refs don´t care. On the other end Davis is getting soft calls all game long.

[KillerLeft]

Refs did everything to help the Lakers. Phantom offensive fouls against Jokic. Meanwhile LeBron is pushing off on every single drive. Obviously without a call. Howard and McGee are allowed to use some MMA moves against Jokic but the refs don´t care. On the other end Davis is getting soft calls all game long.

Agree that the reffing was one-sided, but I thought it was more about the Lakers creating a level of physicality that the Nuggets have never imagined possible, and for which they were completely unprepared. Sloppy passes, guards killing their dribble way too early...Nuggets players shrinking under the pressure all over the court. 

And, most notably, the Lakers size was a problem in this one, which is predictable in a slow game like this, but I don't think either Murray or Jokic played the way they'l need to in order to get this series off the ground. Both have to adjust to this new definition of "uncontested" and get more shots up, especially Jokic. The one thing I've observed about his offensive game that I don't like is that it's obvious he's looking to pass like 85% of the time. This works great when he has established himself enough to draw a second defender (like in game 7 of the Clippers series) but if Vogel's plan is to play him one on one with Howard (mostly), Davis, Morris and MacGee, then he has to understand that he has to beat them and score for Denver to win. 

We now know how Vogel is going to play the early games. It's up to Malone to make an adjustment. 

Easy to forget how young the Nuggets are. I don't think they'll have enough to get past the Lakers' vets, but hopefully they'll make it a series.

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And btw, it's so frustrating that Rondo is playing well all of a sudden, after taking like an 8 year siesta. These same Lakers fans singing his praises right now HATED him last year and all of this year until the last round. This is completely out of nowhere. 

But you gotta give it to him. He's playing really well, for now.