Let's be real about what we had with Starter Powell

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thank you for the explanation about your thinking on KP and WCS.

However, I don't see any value in the data you are using. We actually have ZERO track record for how the pairing of KP works alongside this version of Powell with his diminished athleticism (which has made a huge difference in his contribution). Nor do we have any data for KP paired with this 2021 version of WCS after more experience in Carlisle's system.

Powell has not been very good this year. WCS has been the polar opposite, and even more when starting alongside another big. I don't expect that productiveness to suddenly vanish in the next game or two (although I guess you never know what will happen). Nor do I think that Powell will suddenly be 100% - it may be another year before that happens, and maybe longer.

Powell can still think the game. But so can Dirk. You also have to be able to do what you know, and do it at an athletic level that works. Right now, Powell is too diminished.

So when KP returns, I expect Carlisle is going with WCS alongside, not Powell or Maxi. And while Powell may heal over time, WCS may improve with experience over that same time, so I'm thinking it may not be temporary.

Time will tell.  A couple of responses...

We also don't have much data on Powell playing with another big this season.  My memory from examining lineup data each game is when Powell is next to Maxi, Johnson or WCS the numbers are very positive.   It was just ridiculous to throw him out there as a single big.  Carlisle hasn't done that with WCS or Maxi.  They nearly always have the cover of another big alongside them.  I have very high hopes for WCS.  But, it wasn't that many weeks ago the team was trying to sign Gasol instead of Willie.  As much of a feel good story as the last two games have been, I have a hard time getting past the fact the team's actions say they believe he's a totally fungible backup C in their minds.  I would love for THE TEAM to be proven wrong and I'm very pleased we have Willie cheap for another season and his Bird rights after that (as I've pointed out in the past).

So, I heard about this big on another team who came back from Achilles surgery about as quickly as any NBA player ever.  He's now got a TS% over 60%, a WS/48 of .144 and the second best D-Rating on his team at 103.  Fans are frustrated because it has taken some time for his O to return to his normal level (as evidenced by an Offensive W/S of 0.2 compared to his five year average of 3.5).  But, his team is really struggling to hit outside shots, so the lane, where this guy thrives, has been pretty crowded.  There is a chance this guy will look dramatically better when the teams superstar big returns from injury.  The two of them have a fantastic history when paired and the superstar big will dramatically improve the spacing the injured guy has to work with.  Should we be interested in that guy?

Carlisle has all sorts of mix and match opportunities.  I'm glad the board has come around largely to the idea that five-out may not be the only way for this thing to go once KP returns.  The absolute worst pairing of bigs in my mind is Powell and Willie.  After that, almost any pairing can work.  I imagine Carlisle will experiment with all of the combinations.  I also imagine Maxi will finish games.  I think Powell with KP will be given a chance.  Who knows what Carlisle will do.  I think it is probably short sighted to write Powell off based on a few games where everyone was rusty and Powell was asked to do something that healthy Powell (nor Maxi or Willie) stood no chance at being successful at.

Edit:  Something missing from this conversation is Johnson.  Interestingly, anytime he's been on the floor with Maxi or Powell, the net rating is horrible.  But Johnson with Willie works to the tune of a +22 (small sample size alert).

[F Gump]

So, I heard about this big on another team who came back from Achilles surgery about as quickly as any NBA player ever.  He's now got a TS% over 60%, a WS/48 of .144 and the second best D-Rating on his team at 103.  Fans are frustrated because it has taken some time for his O to return to his normal level (as evidenced by an Offensive W/S of 0.2 compared to his five year average of 3.5).  But, his team is really struggling to hit outside shots, so the lane, where this guy thrives, has been pretty crowded.  There is a chance this guy will look dramatically better when the teams superstar big returns from injury.  The two of them have a fantastic history when paired and the superstar big will dramatically improve the spacing the injured guy has to work with.  Should we be interested in that guy?

I wouldn't be interested unless he's a minimum salary guy (or close to it). Maybe not even then. Backup bigs are a dime a dozen, and I'd rather invest a roster spot in one who hasn't been injured so significantly. A big who loses some of his ability to elevate (like an Achilles injury will do) just won't be the same guy, even if we can find some of the stats for a few games to still look decent. If he's using an excuse that the shooters are missing, that's just a deflection, because if you can't elevate, then more made shots still won't restore your ability to finish.

I remember how Wes M came back early and immediately was "almost back to normal" except he NEVER really regained that lost step. Waited for years. Stayed mediocre.

As for Powell, before the injury he had one good trick - going up and finishing the pick and roll - which is now gone. His shooting, defense, and rebounding were certainly not strengths even before he lost some ability. I know RC is loyal, and Powell has knowledge to be in the right place (even if he can't do much once there), but I think the Mavs have much better options now.

You seem to be his best fan and determined to see him start. I think that's nice, but I would rather see the best player play with the highest ceiling, and I don't think Powell is any of that.

[StepBackJay]

I think Powell looks fine to me, especially now off the bench. He isn't 100% but based on what I see now I expect him to look pretty close to that next season. You see that KD and Wall (both very athletic) look great 2 years removed from their achilles injuries. My issue with Powell is that he's not a starter and finally Rick has him in the spot he should have always been in, off the bench. Ya he gets paid too much but its not a big deal.

The lineup when everyone is back is a contending lineup:

Luka, Rich, DFS, Maxi, KP. I wanted Maxi so bad last year to play next to KP and now I think that's likely to finally happen.

That means your main subs are Brunson, Burke, THJ, Powell, Johnson, & WCS. I am great with that. The 3 bench bigs will have to fight for minutes. I think there's a good chance Johnson and/or THJ are moved at the TDL for something (but who knows?).

This is a team that if healthy (and w/Covid that's a major ?) can contend for a top 4 spot and get past the first round.

[StepBackJay]

The beauty of Luka, Rich, DFS, Maxi, KP is you finally have a good defensive team. You have a starting and closing lineup for 4 good defenders plus Luka who won't kill you on D especially when he is surrounded by good defenders. I loved Luka in the free safety role last game just playing passing lanes. If he can do that and try to be in the right spot he's not going to kill you. He has size which helps and obv is an elite rebounder. This is why Luka can be a guy to take you all the way (among other reasons).

[loki]

The beauty of Luka, Rich, DFS, Maxi, KP is you finally have a good defensive team. You have a starting and closing lineup for 4 good defenders plus Luka who won't kill you on D especially when he is surrounded by good defenders. I loved Luka in the free safety role last game just playing passing lanes. If he can do that and try to be in the right spot he's not going to kill you. He has size which helps and obv is an elite rebounder. This is why Luka can be a guy to take you all the way (among other reasons).

I'm excited to see that lineup as well. Add some situational substitutions of THJ for offense and I think that's a group that can compete with anyone. My main concern heading into the year was starting PF, but Maxi has shot the ball so well that I'm pretty comfortable seeing him in the closing lineup.

[loki]

Powell actually made a few solid plays tonight defending the rim. Hopefully we see more of that. Vuc did have his way with him, although that's to be expected.

He's still like a magnet that repels defenders on offense, but perhaps that's not as big of a deal off the bench.

[SleepingHero]

Powell played his BEST quarter so far this season tonight in the 1st. He looked downright spectacular imo. Lots of athletic finishes. Great rim defending (I know wtf), and solid rotations all around. 

Sure he missed a rotation or got beat here or there, but that first quarter actually gave me hope the first time this year. The rest of the game was more of the same Powell we've seen so far this season, but wow that first quarter.

[StepBackJay]

Powell played his BEST quarter so far this season tonight in the 1st. He looked downright spectacular imo. Lots of athletic finishes. Great rim defending (I know wtf), and solid rotations all around. 

Sure he missed a rotation or got beat here or there, but that first quarter actually gave me hope the first time this year. The rest of the game was more of the same Powell we've seen so far this season, but wow that first quarter.

I am also very encouraged by what I have seen with Powell. He definitely looked like his old self tonight. Maybe he was just getting in game shape. I think he's totally fine as a player so long as he stays on the bench and Rick never tries to start him by DFS again.

[ItsGoTime]

Since the beginning I've been against Powell the starter and LOVED Powell the bench player. If he can regain a bit more explosiveness (I mean, that alley oop last night that the foul call was overturned he had such a small amount of lift that the ref called a foul thinking "he should be getting higher so there must be a foul") and be paired with someone other than Bobi or WCS off the bench, I want him as a Mav for the rest of his career (signing a more appropriate contract next time around)!

[MFFL OLD]

overall history has shown that KP can switch onto the perimeter very effectively as a defender.

https://www.postingandtoasting.com/2018/...-perimeter

Here's a Knicks article from 2018 about Porzingis defending the perimeter

[Jommybone]

Loved this thread and wanted to revisit it. My eyeballs say DP is making a comeback despite—or maybe because of—his reduced minutes. (Giving up on the 3 ball has maybe helped him too.) A quick look at his numbers by the month seems to confirm.

20-21 stats by month (excluding small sample December)

Minutes: 17.5 (Jan), 11.9 (Feb), 10.9 (Mar)

Points: 4.1, 4.3, 3.7

Points/min: .24, .36, .34 (compare .35 last season)

Rebounds: 3.6, 2.9, 3.3

Rebounds/min .21, .24, .30 (.28 career season high)

FG%: 41.7, 40.0, 60.0 (last year’s 63.8 only time in the 60’s)

FT%: 50, 86, 88 (never finished a season in the 80s)

Count me as one (perhaps the only) guy on this board who hopes we don’t sell low on DP. This time next year, his contract may be considered a value.

[KillerLeft]

I have noticed a few 2-3 minute stretches during which Powell has made a huge difference, recently. I even voted him for the Dirkie in a recent game, so generally, I agree.

However, to my eye, the progress hasn't been one, steady incline. It has sort of zigzagged up and down, I think. So, I don't know that planning for him to become dependable again is simply a matter of patience. 

All things considered, I think the best option, if possible, is to remove his money somehow. I never thought his deal was exorbitant for what he contributed before the injury - quite the opposite, actually. But now, he's just not a rotation player on most nights, and his price tag is RIDICULOUS under those circumstances.

[IamDougieFresh]

I heard Dwight loves Atlanta, Orlando and Cleveland. Who are we to deny such a great locker room guy his wishes?

[cow]

Count me as one (perhaps the only) guy on this board who hopes we don’t sell low on DP. This time next year, his contract may be considered a value.

With how good Durant and Wall have looked (relatively) and how long they sat, it does seem like 1.5-2 years is ideal recovery for that injury.  That's a longwinded way of saying I think Powell came back too quickly.  He could very well bounce back next season.

[michaeltex]

Maybe DP felt an opportunity to re-establish his role since KP was scheduled to be out the first month or so?

[cow]

Maybe DP felt an opportunity to re-establish his role since KP was scheduled to be out the first month or so?

I think like any athlete, he just missed playing the game and probably felt an obligation based on his contract.  Prior to KD and Wall, the only basketball player that came back at the same level as before the injury, was Dominique.  I'm just grasping at straws as to why KD and Wall have seemed to regain their athletic form.  Neither rushed back.

[StepBackJay]

Athletically Powell has looked fine lately. I think his role has been marginalized this year to an extent, especially with Rick going to basically playoff rotations for quite a while now. I would love to upgrade Powell's position and/or dump his money but as a player he has looked fine to me lately. It's just that KP being here + Maxi's emergence have limited DP's opportunities to make an impact.

[cow]

Athletically Powell has looked fine lately. I think his role has been marginalized this year to an extent, especially with Rick going to basically playoff rotations for quite a while now. I would love to upgrade Powell's position and/or dump his money but as a player he has looked fine to me lately. It's just that KP being here + Maxi's emergence have limited DP's opportunities to make an impact.

Not sure if the springs are back, at least not consistently.  Maybe it's a confidence thing?  He used to be good for a lob dunk a game and now it sticks out when this actually occurs.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Wow, some Powell love.  Who knew...

You are about to enter another dimension.  A dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind.  A journey into a wondrous land of imagination.

[cow]

Wow, some Powell love.  Who knew...

You are about to enter another dimension.  A dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind.  A journey into a wondrous land of imagination.