Let's be real about what we had with Starter Powell

[mvossman]

It's a great question. 

I'm not sure I have a strong opinion about it, but my first instinct is that Powell rarely rotates incorrectly. He rarely goes the wrong man. He doubles when he should. He recovers when he should. He seems to almost always UNDERSTAND the situation, and how Dallas is attempting to deal with it systemically. 

In short, he's a super smart player who makes very few errors. I'm not 100% sure this is the answer, but I wouldn't have any trouble believing this was the answer if Carlisle told us so. 

I really think the absence of error is much more of a goal for professionals like Carlisle (in any field) than the presence of great. When you think that way, a lot of decisions made by a lot of coaches start to make more sense, imo.

There is probably some truth to this.  I think a big part of it is that team defensive rating is heavily dependent on opponent 3 point percentage, which has a very high variance.  I think somebody already posted the wild differences in opponent 3 point percentage between our wins and losses.  The reality is that this is probably too small a sample to read much into the defensive rating.  With smaller samples, you need to look at more targeted stats (like giving up 85% at the rim) and the eye test.  Both of which suggest it was not a good idea to send Powell out there as the lone big.

[SkenfromLMF]

I am against the lone big approach as a whole, which is why I was all in on a pipe dream of Gobert. KP and small doses of Maxi should be the extent of one big lineups going forward from KP's return. Until then foul issues will probably dictate some single big lineups.

Maxi and WCS seem to be magnetic for whistles, but I will put that down as effort play... I am worried there will be a rough transition back to KP as the starter and how the rotation will look. By that I mean we could Maxi might look like a better fit with KP until he gets his game legs under him, at which point Powell might be the better fit.

I'd feel better if we could find a solid 4 that could work his way into starter status - looking at you Marvin Bagley.

[KillerLeft]

I don't know of a single person here who feels Powell should be the lone big. Literally, not one. 

I DO think it's possible that he will be the best choice to play WITH Porzingis (if Powell is playing like himself). I don't anticipate Kleber will remain in the starting lineup (at least regularly) when KP comes back. 

We should learn a lot more very soon, I suppose. I can't wait to see how much of an impact KP makes just by being out there. That's something we debated quite a bit over the off-season.

[ItsGoTime]

I don't know of a single person here who feels Powell should be the lone big.

RC did for 5 games.

[KillerLeft]

RC did for 5 games.

I really don’t know whether that’s true. It might be, but he might have just thought that the locker room, organization or even the owner felt that there was a group that comprised “the top group” on the roster. In other words, it might have been simply giving that group a chance to earn their role. When you think about it, this team has 6 people who, when healthy, consider themselves starting players in the NBA.

We can debate the wisdom of this, but even in normal seasons, it seems like Carlisle uses early games to test things. I think it’s possible that Carlisle used the first two weeks like “Ok, so you’re ‘starters’? Go prove it.”

[ItsGoTime]

I really don’t know whether that’s true.

No one does, even if he said it was true to a reporter in front of the camera. Can only go there based on the facts. The facts say he started Powell as the lone big for 5 games. The fact is he wants to win. Hence, the statement, while not factual, is based on the facts.

[KillerLeft]

No one does, even if he said it was true to a reporter in front of the camera. Can only go there based on the facts. The facts say he started Powell as the lone big for 5 games. The fact is he wants to win. Hence, the statement, while not factual, is based on the facts.

Right, but that's semantic. 

My point was that he might have had concerns that the lineup he was sending out there wouldn't work and STILL felt the need to send it out there. Speculation, though.

[Jommybone]

Will be hard to bring Maxi and THJ off the bench if they keep playing at a high level. They look like our second and third best players in the minutes I’ve watched this year.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't know of a single person here who feels Powell should be the lone big. Literally, not one. 

I DO think it's possible that he will be the best choice to play WITH Porzingis (if Powell is playing like himself). I don't anticipate Kleber will remain in the starting lineup (at least regularly) when KP comes back. 

We should learn a lot more very soon, I suppose. I can't wait to see how much of an impact KP makes just by being out there. That's something we debated quite a bit over the off-season.

Its a little early to be looking at lineup data, but what we have on Maxi is striking.  Play him with Powell...fantastic.  Play him with Willie...also fantastic.  The net ratings are off the charts for both pairings.  He's easily the most malleable big in terms of which other big he can play with.  Play him as the lone big...abysmal.    

It should be safe to assume Maxi could start with KP also.  But the history we have (the data from last season) says Powell/KP was the better pairing.  The main reason we'll probably see Powell/KP given a chance at some point is it is easier to construct rotations if you split up the outside shooting ability of KP and Maxi to where one is always on the floor.  You certainly could start out with KP and Maxi and that is very likely to be the finishing lineup many nights.  But starting Maxi makes the rotation pairings more difficult if you assume they want to avoid Powell/WCS playing together.

[ballsrchr]

Its a little early to be looking at lineup data, but what we have on Maxi is striking.  Play him with Powell...fantastic.  Play him with Willie...also fantastic.  The net ratings are off the charts for both pairings.  He's easily the most malleable big in terms of which other big he can play with.  Play him as the lone big...abysmal.    

It should be safe to assume Maxi could start with KP also.  But the history we have (the data from last season) says Powell/KP was the better pairing.  The main reason we'll probably see Powell/KP given a chance at some point is it is easier to construct rotations if you split up the outside shooting ability of KP and Maxi to where one is always on the floor.  You certainly could start out with KP and Maxi and that is very likely to be the finishing lineup many nights.  But starting Maxi makes the rotation pairings more difficult if you assume they want to avoid Powell/WCS playing together.

This.  I've always been high on Maxi.  Originally I expected his offense to develop most strongly, but, surprise, it was defense.  He still has work to do on offense...and I think he has room to grow in both areas.  One thing that many people fail to see is that Maxi is a "team" player.  But, as you say, when left as the lone big he struggles...tries to do too much.  Paired with another big he is stellar.

[mvossman]

Its a little early to be looking at lineup data, but what we have on Maxi is striking.  Play him with Powell...fantastic.  Play him with Willie...also fantastic.  The net ratings are off the charts for both pairings.  He's easily the most malleable big in terms of which other big he can play with.  Play him as the lone big...abysmal.    

It should be safe to assume Maxi could start with KP also.  But the history we have (the data from last season) says Powell/KP was the better pairing.  The main reason we'll probably see Powell/KP given a chance at some point is it is easier to construct rotations if you split up the outside shooting ability of KP and Maxi to where one is always on the floor.  You certainly could start out with KP and Maxi and that is very likely to be the finishing lineup many nights.  But starting Maxi makes the rotation pairings more difficult if you assume they want to avoid Powell/WCS playing together.

I'm a little skeptical of the data suggesting Powell is a better pairing with KP than Maxi.  For one, it was still a fairly small sample (roughly 30 games each) and it was at different points in time.  All of the Powell/KP minutes were at the beginning of the season when everyone was healthy and the team as a whole was clicking.  Most of the KP/Maxi minutes were second half of the season when we had a lot of injuries and depth issues and were not playing as well as a whole.  Plus, it just doesn't make any sense.  KP's offense exploded once he started playing in 5 out lineups and Maxi is our best defensive big.  My guess is that the numbers will look a lot better this year.

As for Powell, until he regains most of his athleticism (which may not be this year or ever) we can't really use data from last year.  He is a shell of his former self.  He has already lost his starting job to WCS, and my guess is if Rick wants to tinker with playing a center with KP, he will start with WCS.

[KillerLeft]

It should be safe to assume Maxi could start with KP also.  But the history we have (the data from last season) says Powell/KP was the better pairing.  The main reason we'll probably see Powell/KP given a chance at some point is it is easier to construct rotations if you split up the outside shooting ability of KP and Maxi to where one is always on the floor.  You certainly could start out with KP and Maxi and that is very likely to be the finishing lineup many nights.  But starting Maxi makes the rotation pairings more difficult if you assume they want to avoid Powell/WCS playing together.

Oh, sure. It's not that I think Kleber CAN'T play with KP, it's just that I think he's literally the only big who CAN play with WCS. Like you said, any combo of WCS/Powell/Johnson is much less than ideal, synergy wise.  It just seems like once KP is starting, it makes the most sense NOT to have the other shooter (Kleber) start with him, so that you can bring the shooting off of the bench and have it available for the whole game. 

I specifically like the WCS/Kleber paring, personally.

But, it's just a prediction. Carlisle might keep trying the play the guy 35+ minutes. We'll see.

[StepBackJay]

I specifically like the WCS/Kleber paring, personally.

But, it's just a prediction. Carlisle might keep trying the play the guy 35+ minutes. We'll see.

Man that would make Kamm happy. The thing ab WCS is he is more nimble than you think, kind of like Maxi. You would think WCS on paper is too big to play with KP but WCS similar to Maxi or Powell can actually rotate and switch and whatnot. WCS is growing on me.

And wow Powell only got 10 minutes last night. That's surprising but I guess not since Rick went with Boban more. Powell's usage lately is much better bc it's what it should be as a big off the bench playing with another big. Last game against the Rox Powell only got 15 min. These are strange times.

I don't mind off-the-bench Powell. Ya he makes too much by maybe 5 mil but if he isn't relied upon as a start he is totally fine. He does some good things out there. I am so glad Rick has seen the light, hopefully he never goes back to this crazy idea that Powell and DFS should be your starting frontcourt.

[F Gump]

 
It should be safe to assume Maxi could start with KP also.  But the history we have (the data from last season) says Powell/KP was the better pairing.  The main reason we'll probably see Powell/KP given a chance at some point is it is easier to construct rotations if you split up the outside shooting ability of KP and Maxi to where one is always on the floor.  You certainly could start out with KP and Maxi and that is very likely to be the finishing lineup many nights.  But starting Maxi makes the rotation pairings more difficult if you assume they want to avoid Powell/WCS playing together.

I don't understand why the conversation skips KP + WCS.

Your observation is that "Powell > Maxi" when paired with KP. He's apparently a better fit, due to the way the skills align.

Powell's decline in ability due to injury has made "WCS > Powell" at doing what Powell does. The difference in results is significant - plus minus differential is stunning.

So it feels like KP + WCS would be the best KP lineup of all of them, and perhaps by quite a lot.

[Kammrath]

So it feels like KP + WCS would be the best combo of all of them, and perhaps by quite a lot.

Everyone seems to be "scared" of the idea of two 7 footers....but I think WCS has shown the footwork to hang on the perimeter defensively as well as the other bigs on the team. I am with you that I would absolutely try KP+WCS and see how it works.

[StepBackJay]

Man that would be some good D. 

Luka, Rich, DFS, WCS, KP. So much length and size. Mavs could actually finish the season as a top 10 D. It's hard to say how well WCS would work with KP on offense. Powell often got in his way forcing KP to just stand behind the 3 point line. Maxi doesn't have that problem. Who knows maybe it could work. WCS is much more nimble on D than I thought so on defense it works.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't understand why the conversation skips KP + WCS.

Your observation is that "Powell > Maxi" when paired with KP. He's apparently a better fit, due to the way the skills align.

Powell's decline in ability due to injury has made "WCS > Powell" at doing what Powell does. The difference in results is significant - plus minus differential is stunning.

So it feels like KP + WCS would be the best KP lineup of all of them, and perhaps by quite a lot.

It is more than just “better fit” as it relates to Powell.  We have some history of Powell playing alongside a still rusty KP and the pairing was incredibly effective.  If one believes Powell will never get back to some semblance of normal, then they wouldn’t have Powell in the rotation at all.  I just don’t believe that.  He’s way ahead of schedule.

To your bigger point, they absolutely will play KP and WCS together some.  It happened in most of the games where KP and WCS both played last season.  It was a total of 16 minutes over six games.  It was basically an overlap that averaged about 3 minutes as one of them subbed in and played with the other before the other subbed out.  SUPER SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT.  The D-Rating for those 16 minutes was 129 with a massively negative net rating.  It would be ridiculous to try to use that sample size to prove anything.  But, I look at the current success of WCS + Maxi, the historical success of Maxi and Powell and KP and Powell and I have to think the least likely pairing as a starting unit is KP and WCS.  I’m not opposed to trying it.  I’m writing more about what I think they will do.

[KillerLeft]

But, I look at the current success of WCS + Maxi, the historical success of Maxi and Powell and KP and Powell and I have to think the least likely pairing as a starting unit is KP and WCS.

Totally agree.

[SleepingHero]

I just don’t believe that.  He’s way ahead of schedule.

Sorry Dan, but what schedule do you have? Powell has looked overall a steaming pile of you know what to me. 

He's had a play here and there sure. I've really tried to be a glass half-full kinda guy, especially after our deep dive on Powell in the preseason. But I haven't seen him play an entire quarter where I felt he was even half of what he was, let alone saying he's ahead of schedule. Powell played just a hair over 10 minutes against Denver and I never thought at any point in the game "We should play Powell more". 

Lets compare him to another athlete who I felt his career was over this season and that also had the same injury as Powell in John Wall. Now him? He's ahead of schedule. His explosiveness is still there. His lateral movement has definitely waned, and he doesn't jump as high as before, but he can still accelerate past almost anyone so far. 

So I just gotta ask, what is Powell doing right now that you think is making him ahead of schedule? Is the bar that low? Or am I just not seeing something big that you're seeing?

[F Gump]

Thank you for the explanation about your thinking on KP and WCS.

However, I don't see any value in the data you are using. We actually have ZERO track record for how the pairing of KP works alongside this version of Powell with his diminished athleticism (which has made a huge difference in his contribution). Nor do we have any data for KP paired with this 2021 version of WCS after more experience in Carlisle's system.

Powell has not been very good this year. WCS has been the polar opposite, and even more when starting alongside another big. I don't expect that productiveness to suddenly vanish in the next game or two (although I guess you never know what will happen). Nor do I think that Powell will suddenly be 100% - it may be another year before that happens, and maybe longer.

Powell can still think the game. But so can Dirk. You also have to be able to do what you know, and do it at an athletic level that works. Right now, Powell is too diminished.

So when KP returns, I expect Carlisle is going with WCS alongside, not Powell or Maxi. And while Powell may heal over time, WCS may improve with experience over that same time, so I'm thinking it may not be temporary.