What is going on with the Mavs?

[JamesConway]

Problem is you just can't single out players. Everyone played like crap. WCS, the idolized Mavs center got 4 fouls in 9 minutes. Kleber is awful defensively this season. DFS is below 30 % from three in the season start. They looked real solid in the preseason but somehow it all just went away. Doesn't matter, its a long season and it is obvious it will be s strange one. For everyone.

The starters didn’t look solid in preseason, they were bad back then as well. The bench mob was killing it though and lifted up the team before the rookie lineups squared up.

DP had a worse +/- than WCS every regular season game so far. What is the appropriate time frame for you to talk about this? I‘d agree in general that four games + a shitty preseason would not be enough to take out a former starter but context matters here (achilles rehab).

I think this all was preventable. Expecting Dwight to just come in and not be a liability less than 12 months after tearing his achilles was the irrational part. So far everything went as expected.

I just wonder at what point the poor returns force a change. Why we’re not taking some pressure off the starters by bringing DP off the bench to find his rhythm......I don’t know. If the goal is to get him healthy and back into shape then that’s where that should happen against lesser competition.

[JamesConway]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...neups/2021

Starters after 4 games: 41 minutes together, -16.5 points per 100 possessions.

Last night:

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1344...61186?s=21

[omahen]

Starters after 4 games: 41 minutes together, -16.5 points per 100 possessions.

Last night:

You are still on extremely small sample. There are many extremely negative lineups that don't include Powell and couple of positive ones that include him. I am certain Mavs know about basketball more than we do and there is a reason for every lineup. We need to be patient

[JamesConway]

2 man lineups where you combine Luka and a big:

Luka and Maxi: +1.1 point per 100 possessions in 62 minutes

Luka and WCS: +46 points per 100 possessions in 27 minutes

Luka and Powell: -20 points per 100 possessions in 66 minutes

[ItsGoTime]

I am glad I approach the beginning of the season with a fresh perspective and just want to watch and see how I think the offseason acquisitions work. There is absolutely something to the bench Powell stuff (RC should be tinkering with that decision VERY soon!), but other than that, I'm reserving major judgement till we have about 20 games under our belt.

[dirkfansince1998]

I already mentioned it in another thread but maybe it makes more sense in this thread. Maxi hasn´t attempted a single dunk or layup this season. 16 3s, one midrange jumper. Same story in the preseason. 16 FGA / 15 3s.
Not sure why he isn´t even trying to roll to the rim or cut at least once or twice a game. Probably by design but it´s another small piece that stands out right now.

[StepBackJay]

2 man lineups where you combine Luka and a big:

Luka and Maxi: +1.1 point per 100 possessions in 62 minutes

Luka and WCS: +46 points per 100 possessions in 27 minutes

Luka and Powell: -20 points per 100 possessions in 66 minutes

Looking at https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanc...on=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612742

The starting lineup is tanking now. The Luka, Burke, Rich, Kleber, WCS lineup is performing really well in limited action. I can see why that lineup would work well. Defense, rim protection with playmaking and outside shooting. I wish Rick would mix up the starting lineup rather than running the same starting unit out there that's gotten us 1 win so far.

[omahen]

A couple of good points Cato made besides the obvious Powell and Doncic takes

https://theathletic.com/2294231/2020/12/...oncic-nba/

The nature of a four-game sample is that nothing means anything. More specifically, it means that any trend or stat outside of what you would reasonably expect to be the case shouldn’t be assumed to be correct. For example, the Mavericks have hit 31.6 percent of their 3s this season, just 26th in the league. Last season, they cracked the league’s top 10 with a 36.7 percent conversion rate.

Opponents have also recorded a 55.3 effective field goal percentage against Dallas through these first four games, which is 24th in the league. According to Second Spectrum data obtained by The Athletic, though, those opponents are outperforming their expected shot valuations by more than six percent, which is easily the league’s largest disparity. Basically, teams are hitting a ton of difficult shots against the Mavericks, and Second Spectrum’s tracking analysis says they’re doing so at abnormally high rates. The data company comes to this conclusion by analyzing shot type, shot distance and nearby opponents, and it compares those factors to hundreds of thousands of shots in its NBA database to find averages. (If you’re familiar with soccer analytics, its concept is similar to xG.)

[burekemde]

Powell is horrible. On both ends of the floor. That is what is wrong. 

Besides that some players are slightly out of shape, and just need bit more games to really get started.

[SleepingHero]

"Basically, teams are hitting a ton of difficult shots against the Mavericks, and Second Spectrum’s tracking analysis says they’re doing so at abnormally high rates. The data company comes to this conclusion by analyzing shot type, shot distance and nearby opponents, and it compares those factors to hundreds of thousands of shots in its NBA database to find averages. (If you’re familiar with soccer analytics, its concept is similar to xG.)"

My question though is WHY. There is a reason why 4 teams have waltzed in and have nailed these difficult shots. Is it poor defensive effort? Who are nailing the shots? Big men? Guards? A mix? Is it our lack of size in lineups? Or is it actually just prayers that have for some reason gone in? A 6% increase is significant. If it was 1-2% higher, I can say "okay yeah the Mavs are just getting unlucky". But 6% is pointing to a more systemic issue to me. I don't think it's just random chance that teams have found it easy to score on the Mavs, even the tough ones. 

It's an easy cop-out by Cato to say, "Hey look its only 4 games and you can't use stats you normally use to draw conclusions due to a low sample size and also the Mavs are getting supremely unlucky where their opponents are just hitting tough shots!" 

So far the Mavs defensive effort besides the Clippers has been atrocious. And there are a lot of players to blame.

[KillerLeft]

Maybe he can regain his form,

My guess is that this thinking is involved with running him out there right now, at least in part. They are hoping that he can play himself into rhythm after a long period of being out. 

When you think about it, it’s not crazy. KP was rough for like the first half of the season last year and nobody called for him to be benched. 

So, it seems to me that those super upset about Powell getting these chances are thinking differently because A) the Mavs have raised our expectations for what they should accomplish since the beginning of last season and B) they don’t believe Powell is WORTH trying to work back into the fold, and that the idea of a healthy, successful Powell won’t help the team much, anyway. 

We KNOW the Mavs disagree with B, and they might be willing to lose some early games (germane because A) to get him where they THINK they can get him. 

I’m just playing devil’s advocate here - my confidence in Powell is wavering, for sure. I DO trust the Mavs, however. This isn’t just because “they like him.” They’re doing SOMETHING.

[omahen]

My question though is WHY. There is a reason why 4 teams have waltzed in and have nailed these difficult shots. Is it poor defensive effort? Who are nailing the shots? Big men? Guards? A mix? Is it our lack of size in lineups? Or is it actually just prayers that have for some reason gone in? A 6% increase is significant. If it was 1-2% higher, I can say "okay yeah the Mavs are just getting unlucky". But 6% is pointing to a more systemic issue to me.

What you are describing is basically an exact definition of a small sample. Pure bad luck and Mavs countered two hot teams. You need a bigger sample to judge it systemic. I know Lakers hit above average and it was not just our bad defense. Same yesterday. A lot of things went in for Charlotte while Dallas was missing open shots.

[ClutchDirk]

The Cavs are tied for 2nd in the East while the Bucks are 11th and Raps are 13th...

Way too early to get upset or in some cases grab a pitchfork...

[omahen]

We also have same score as WC finalists and better score than a team that went to second round last season

[RDB]

I had some free time today and thought I would test a thought.  The thought is that the Mavs are lacking guys that can create their own shot and rely too much on Luka.  While I don’t know that the numbers below answer my question, I thought I would share.  I compiled numbers from the shot charts for the first 4 games on NBA.com and the chart below shows the numbers and percentages from various ranges.

Player.        Tot shots.      3 Pt.       Mid range.       Paint.        Paint made
Kleber.            17.            16.               1.               0.                 0
                                       94%.           6%.            0%.              0%
Powell.            14.             2.                0.              12.                7
                                       14%.           0%.            86%.            56%
Stein.              11.             1.                1.               9.                 5
                                        9%.            9%.            82%.            56%
Johnson.          14.             5.                0.               9.                 4
                                        36%.          0%.            64%.             44%
Finley-Smith.    32.            22.               1.               9.                 5
                                        69%.          3%.            28%.             55%
Hardaway.        46.            27.               5.              14.                9
                                        59%.          11%.          30%.             64%
Richardson.      46.            24.               3.               19.               10
                                        52%.           7%.           41%.             53%
Luka.               73.            21                4                48.               28
                                        29%.           5%.           66%.             58%
Brunson.          32.            11.               2.               19.               11
                                        34%.           6%.           60%.             58%

Totals.             285.           132.            17.              139.              79
                                        46%.           6%.           48%.             57%

It’s interesting that 94% of the shots came from 3pt or the paint but I don’t know how that compares to other teams.  I would also be curious how many other teams have so few shots in the paint from their bigs.  I know it’s a small sample but I thought it was interesting.

[ClutchDirk]

That is historically bad mid range shooting...

[Kammrath]

That is historically bad mid range shooting...

I think that is percentage of total shots....not percentage of makes.

[ClutchDirk]

I think that is percentage of total shoots....not percentage of makes.

https://media.giphy.com/media/8WdsK61D9YOOc/giphy.gif

[RDB]

I think that is percentage of total shoots....not percentage of makes.

That’s correct.  It’s the percentage of shots taken from various ranges.  The only shooting percentage is the paint made column.  Sorry for the confusion.

[mavsluvr]

It’s interesting that 94% of the shots came from 3pt or the paint but I don’t know how that compares to other teams.  I would also be curious how many other teams have so few shots in the paint from their bigs.  I know it’s a small sample but I thought it was interesting.

Thanks for the work!


The ones that really stand out to me are Maxi (almost all threes, no shots in the paint), and DFS (69% threes). (Hardaway plays like a guard, even if he is nominally a SF, so I don't include his 59% threes as an aberration.)

Any conclusion as to whether this is a directed strategy, a result of opposing defenses, or just random?