What is going on with the Mavs?

[SwisherPrice]

Last season they had good 3-pt shooting, particularly career high percentages from THJ and DFS. So far, they are one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the league. Luka, JRich, and DFS are 2, 3, and 4 in attempts and are all shooting poorly. THJ shot 39% from 3 last year but now will probably go back to earth closer to his 35% career average. 

I'm not so sure that will be fixable this season...even if KP returns. They may end up getting more open looks but if they can't knock them down then it doesn't matter.

You also lost Seth, one of the best pure shooters in the league who isn't streaky, unlike THJ.

[ClutchDirk]

Last season they had good 3-pt shooting, particularly career high percentages from THJ and DFS. So far, they are one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the league. Luka, JRich, and DFS are 2, 3, and 4 in attempts and are all shooting poorly. THJ shot 39% from 3 last year but now will probably go back to earth closer to his 35% career average. 

I'm not so sure that will be fixable this season...even if KP returns. They may end up getting more open looks but if they can't knock them down then it doesn't matter.

You also lost Seth, one of the best pure shooters in the league who isn't streaky, unlike THJ.

Seth was also streaky...1 night 15 points...next 2 nights 7 points total...

[ThisIStheYear]

The Mavs play like an established team with a history of winning with nothing to prove that dials it up at times but is mostly coasting. It’s funny, because they’ve yet to accomplish anything really meaningful. No 50 win seasons, no deep playoff runs, not even a victorious playoff series. There’s just no urgency at all. You’d think they’d play hungry. Even coach usually is more aggressive with lineups and approaches early in the year, but this year, other than Luka’s load management tonight, it’s kind of the same looks over and over — uncharacteristically passive coaching to go with the passive play, IMO. The effort and attention to detail, or lack thereof, shows up especially in the rebounding, where the Mavs got beat again tonight. Maybe I should take the early season nonchalance as a sign of confidence, but given the lack of skins on the wall for this group, that’s difficult. Tomorrow’s game looks like another loss, but they better get turned around soon after that. They’re going to need a big winning streak to make sure they finish in the top six. Anything lower than six is a failed regular season.

[SwisherPrice]

Seth was also streaky...1 night 15 points...next 2 nights 7 points total...

But more often than not, he was still going to make his threes at a high percentage. He shot 45% from three last year...as a role player/4th option, that efficiency is important. 

And because he had that reputation of being a respected shooter, defenses couldn't just leave him open. Right now, there is no player on this roster who commands that respect.

[Kammrath]

If the season ended today the Mavs would have the 4th best lottery odds......

[KillerLeft]

If the season ended today the Mavs would have the 4th best lottery odds......

You mean NY would, so that’s a double Ferris gif

[Mavs2019]

You mean NY would, so that’s a double Ferris gif

But the Knicks would be in the play-offs, so we can pretend it´s more like a pick swap.

Btw what are the rules regarding the wildcard spots and the lottery? Say you finish 10th, but qualify for the play-offs  via wildcard games. Do you stay in the lottery for draft purposes? That´s a pretty big deal imho.

[KillerLeft]

Say you finish 10th, but qualify for the play-offs  via wildcard games. Do you stay in the lottery for draft purposes? That´s a pretty big deal imho.

Great question.

[Dahlsim]

Something else (note it below).

All of the above, a fat Wonderboy, a wounded Unicorn and I throw in a wasted Giant Bobi on the bench.

[khaled1987]

But the Knicks would be in the play-offs, so we can pretend it´s more like a pick swap.

Btw what are the rules regarding the wildcard spots and the lottery? Say you finish 10th, but qualify for the play-offs  via wildcard games. Do you stay in the lottery for draft purposes? That´s a pretty big deal imho.

I think if you made the playoff, you aren't a lottery team even if you are 10th. Team immediately qualify as 8th best

[ThisIStheYear]

Right on cue, Coach finally mixes up some lineups, and gets a very good performance from his team.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...1572225031

[WillE]

Someone posted a seemingly thoughtful article about Luka's last years late game struggles and with the tenor was too much shooting, too many step backs, too predictable, not enough driving to the cup.

While this all ain't wrong, it's entirely missing another decisive factor: decision making.

MacMahon points it out though:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3066...cks-ot-win

"According to NBA.com/stats, Doncic led the league in field goals attempted in the final 30 seconds of one-possession games during the regular season, going 4-of-15 from the field and 1-of-10 from 3-point range. He had no assists in those situations despite being one of the league's best passers."

NO ASSISTS - which can be translated to no or only one decision and that is hero ball. Try to win it alone.

Versus Denver he showed some change in that regard and I'm convinced, he'll keep on learning and trusting his team mates, so I'm pretty sure we won't talk about late game struggles much longer.

[omahen]

NO ASSISTS - which can be translated to no or only one decision and that is hero ball. Try to win it alone.

When he did pass to an open teammate and he missed, it was also not good enough for media. I don't remember Doncic taking tough shots while teammates were wide open or if there was literally never a situation with Doncic passing (but teammate missed - no assist for Doncic). Perhaps the media guys should check the whole picture before making judgements. If the focus would be on Luka settling for step backs instead of something else, I would be ok. 

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...other-way/

https://apnews.com/article/76a45e599f604...d737d20dd0

[fifteenth]

When he did pass to an open teammate and he missed, it was also not good enough for media. I don't remember Doncic taking tough shots while teammates were wide open or if there was literally never a situation with Doncic passing (but teammate missed - no assist for Doncic). Perhaps the media guys should check the whole picture before making judgements. If the focus would be on Luka settling for step backs instead of something else, I would be ok. 

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...other-way/

https://apnews.com/article/76a45e599f604...d737d20dd0

We all love Luka. We know he may end up actually being on of the greatest NBA players of all time. But he's young, and all great players grow, they aren't finished products at 21 years old. 

And, we all watched the games. You're right in saying teammates missed shots. But it's also true that Luka was less multidimensional in late game scenarios. He walked the ball up more, took more step backs, and took more of them without initiating any other offense. He's young and he's learning. We can all see it. I think Timmy Mac is seeing something real. And I don't think the stats he quoted were just "teammates missed shotes". 

Ultimately the point of this article is to notice Luka's growth, which is something that Luka and Rick are talking about as well.

[omahen]

We all love Luka. We know he may end up actually being on of the greatest NBA players of all time. But he's young, and all great players grow, they aren't finished products at 21 years old. 

And, we all watched the games. You're right in saying teammates missed shots. But it's also true that Luka was less multidimensional in late game scenarios. He walked the ball up more, took more step backs, and took more of them without initiating any other offense. He's young and he's learning. We can all see it. I think Timmy Mac is seeing something real. And I don't think the stats he quoted were just "teammates missed shotes". 

Ultimately the point of this article is to notice Luka's growth, which is something that Luka and Rick are talking about as well.

Perhaps I jumped too much on the piece as it was positive in its tone. I first read only the short summary from WillE which got me going. The notion that Luka didn't pass (because he was "selfish" as one could understand it) made me respond. Not the fact he was inefficient or took bad shots, totally agree with that. Only the "didn't pass" part. 

Still, as I don't wish to be missunderstood. While I did mention it, the "teammates missed shots" part was far from main emphasis in my argument.

[fifteenth]

The notion that Luka didn't pass (because he was "selfish" as one could understand it) made me respond.

Well, yes, that's just silly. Luka takes shots, passes, gets into the paint, grabs rebounds, etc. because of the love of the game, and because he's a competitor. He believes he can make the shot, make the pass, get the ball, win the game. That's who he is. 

We've seen selfish players, and Luka is not that.

[WillE]

The notion that Luka didn't pass (because he was "selfish" as one could understand it) made me respond. Not the fact he was inefficient or took bad shots, totally agree with that. Only the "didn't pass" part.

Just for the record: the quote reads "NO ASSISTS".

Not no passes, but no assists. This means no made baskets after a pass, but not necessarily no passes at all - just no field goal after a pass.

And that's what I wanted to point out: that the whole group, led by Luka, is developing and getting better.

[F Gump]

I think the most insightful article explaining the Mavs end game issues is this one:
https://mikeprada.substack.com/p/luka-do...ch-offense

Mavs end games failures were from too much hero ball. But that happened because the regular offense used a whole series of probing attacks and resets until something would open up. However, during the end games last season, Luka would dribble down the shot clock before starting the offense, only leaving time to try one thing and then hoist it, often a low percentage shot.

The solution? Start the offense sooner.

I think there were other significant issues (such as bad free throw shooting, and inability to get stops) that led to collapses, but this one is certainly a big part of the puzzle and helps explain why a record-setting offense would inexplicably tend to short out late in close games.

[WillE]

I think the most insightful article explaining the Mavs end game issues is this one:
https://mikeprada.substack.com/p/luka-do...ch-offense

Mavs end games failures were from too much hero ball. But that happened because the regular offense used a whole series of probing attacks and resets until something would open up. However, during the end games last season, Luka would dribble down the shot clock before starting the offense, only leaving time to try one thing and then hoist it, often a low percentage shot.

The solution? Start the offense sooner.

I think there were other significant issues (such as bad free throw shooting, and inability to get stops) that led to collapses, but this one is certainly a big part of the puzzle and helps explain why a record-setting offense would inexplicably tend to short out late in close games.

That is exactly the article I meant - thanks!

Agaim: while starting the offense earlier is one solution, passing and trusting his team mates is just as important.