07-07-2021, 08:38 PM
(07-07-2021, 06:54 PM)Tyler Wrote: Interesting.
A few thoughts:
- Conley seems like a prime candidate for our big FA acquisition. He fits both a need (veteran secondary playmaker who also plays defense) and a pattern (previous big-name Mavs FA target where they finish 2nd but land him later after the contract ages). So I can totally see it.
- If operating over the cap, JRich+Maxi can get Conley to $25mm in the first year. Which seems right. So taking your trade suggestion at face value, that makes me want to make other moves first to maximize the use of our cap space.
- If Dallas lets THJ go, that leaves about $20mm in cap space. Interestingly, this is exactly what Oubre is rumored to want. So maybe there really is something going on there where Oubre's agent is publicly signaling his client's FA preference.
- I don't think Oubre is worth $20mm. And I also don't think he's worth losing THJ for.
So I can believe that something is going on with those two guys. But for it to make the most sense to me, one of two things would push it over the top:
1. Split the $20mm between Oubre and another player before trading for Conley. Oubre and that other player would need to be more valuable than THJ + a MLE free agent. For example, (and knowing that Maxi is traded) dividing that money between Oubre and Markkanen could be interesting. Having both on deals just over the MLE could be good options for them and good values for Dallas. Maybe they also let WCS go to free up a few more million to seal the deal.
2. Operate over the cap. Keep THJ, sign Oubre to the MLE, and trade for Conley.
Surveying the FA options, I think either outcome could be a pretty effective offseason. The most important thing is to just add talent.
I guess I picked a good day to initiate the “Kelly Oubre Jr. Day” conversation.
I went the opposite in my assumptions. I think you use space on Conley. Utah isn’t going to want JRich. They need to spend their exception on a facilitator if Conley leaves…I’ve heard it said that JRich doesn’t do that well. I have difficulty seeing them going into the tax unless they are doing it for a star. If Oubre is the secondary target, you use the rest of your room (if JRich opts out) or you trade JRich to GS (who I think would be much more likely to spend LT money on a backup guard). JRich can trade match a pretty wide variety of salary levels.
If you go through the list of 2021 FA’s, there really aren’t many athletic 3/4 types on the list. We need some athleticism and some force and it is hard to find. If I’m looking for a comp, DJJ got $9.7mm last summer. But, Oubre is a year removed from scoring 18 PPG instead of the 8.5 Jones put up before his deal. Beasley got $15mm and put up 20 per game with better three point shooting and worse D.