2020-2021 MAVS NEWS: Archived

[RDB]

I think it's mostly the first - the guards ability to finish at the rim this season - which then makes the spacing worse and the 3-ball is harder to make.

I see a Luka who is less explosive, and isn't able to get to the layup or dunk and finish it, and then that leads to him settling for the kickout way too easily. This could come from conditioning. But it could also comes from something like a slightly-sprained ankle that he's trying to keep from stressing.

But all the possibilities are synergistic -  all tied together.

If Luka can't make 3s, his defender can go under on the PNR. That removes the ability of the roll man from being a threat to attack the basket, and further clogs Luka and others from getting to the rim. (If I'm game-planning the Mavs, I'm sagging off Luka and going under every pick, daring him to shoot 3's, clogging everything else up, until there's a reason to do otherwise.)

If other shooters are missing 3s, the defense can sag on Luka and others when they drive, keeping them from finishing at the rim.

If Powell can't elevate like before, and other roll men aren't as good at PNR, then defenders don't have to stay at home on him when guards penetrate and head towards the basket.

If the pick isn't getting any action, the pick guy sets a lazier pick, or slips the pick, trying to get the pass, and it further clogs the lane.

Great analysis but I’m not sure the numbers support the Luka conclusions.  He is not and never will be an explosive player.  He actually has a higher shooting percentage on drives and on shots <10 ft this year v. last year and the passes from drives are almost exactly the same.  I think whatever the game shape issues are are mostly impacting his longer range shooting.  Tired legs typically lead to poorer longer range shooting.