Pelton did the math:
Quote:Can Miami still sign Giannis as a free agent?
Yes, but it's a lot more complicated, based on current salary-cap estimates.
The first important issue for the Heat is whether Adebayo achieves the criteria necessary to boost his salary in the first year of the extension from 25% of the salary cap (a projected $28.1 million) to 30% of the cap ($33.7 million) by either making an All-NBA team or winning Defensive Player of the Year. Adebayo finished fifth in the All-NBA voting for the three center spots last season and also finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, so both are reasonable possibilities.
If Adebayo is at the 25% max, Miami could potentially clear sufficient room to offer Antetokounmpo a max contract (starting at that same $33.7 million) by stripping down the roster to just All-Stars Adebayo and Jimmy Butler ($36 million). That would be painful, forcing the Heat to trade rising star Tyler Herro (as well as 2020 first-round pick Precious Achiuwa) and renounce the rights to restricted free agent Duncan Robinson.
Still, just having a path to signing Giannis outright would be important for Miami in getting the Bucks to the negotiating table next year for a sign-and-trade that would allow them to retain additional players. The Heat could send back some of their own free agents in a double sign-and-trade to match salaries while offering future first-round picks to make it worth Milwaukee's participation.
Should Adebayo make All-NBA or win Defensive Player of the Year and boost his salary north of 25% of the cap, the math gets even more difficult for Miami. In that scenario, the Heat would have to trade either Adebayo or Butler in order to create max cap space.