2020-2021 AROUND the NBA: Archived

[SleepingHero]

If by "outlier" you mean his best shooting season, I agree. But, it wasn't random, based on "all accounts" that you're ignoring, accounts made by several people around here. His role changed. The quality of his teammates, coaching and offensive system changed.

I never meant to convey that I thought the results of THJ's season last year was random. But rather, my main point is that I felt the replicability of those kinds of results this season were low. I cannot disagree with you at all on most of your points. I think the quality of teammates, coaching, and system has all helped THJ. Proof's in the pudding. However, it's just as valid to recognize the archetype of player THJ is and acknowledge his pitfalls.

THJ IS a microwave player (and I know you aren't arguing against that). He can go through stretches where he's barely cracking 30% for 10 games, then turn right around and average nearly 20ppg on 60% shooting. That's who he is and has always been. He takes very difficult shots that sometimes go in and other times we're left bewildered at the TV wondering why he took that with 15s left on the shot clock. So the question is how can we predict the true impact of all these assumed positive factors in leading to another career year for a player that's historically so volatile? To be fair, I don't think there's an easy way, if there is even a way to begin with. And it really all rests on THJ and his mental and the human psyche is a conundrum that can often never be predicted reliably. 

If I could put a confidence interval on THJ shooting 40% from 3 this season, I'd put it at 80%. Meaning if this were to happen again, it'd be a 20% random chance of it happening. So in other words I'm not very confident that he can replicate that kind of performance. I mainly say this because historically THJ as a shooter he's been below league average every year besides the one in Dallas. And when the going got tough, THJ reverted to his career averages. Because of this, I don't view him nearly as irreplaceable as you're making him out to be. I believe if THJ puts up another terrible playoff series, the Mavs will probably not even give him a call on July 1st and look elsewhere. Like they've done many times before. 

Also, I don't think I've used THJ as a scapegoat for every and any problem the Mavs face. If I've had it's news to me and my bad. I do often, and I believe rightly, point out when THJ invokes the power of the Henny god himself JR Smith and takes low% long 2's while triple teamed and there's 19s on the shot clock. But with Luka+KP on the floor, those are coming fewer and farther between. I also totally 100% agree that THJ is a good professional, fantastic teammate, and his desire to be in Dallas are all amazing positive points that should not be taken for granted. There is a lot of good with THJ. He brings a kind of shot making at the 2 that I don't think the Mavs have had since 2009 Jason Terry.  I also feel it's really easy to like him when he's going through a hotstreak like he's in right now, and it's also much easier to move on from him when he's going through a cold streak that reminds you of all his weaknesses (like he did in the bubble/playoffs). It's very possible that the bubble environment affected THJ. It's very possible playoff nerves got the best of him. I guess we'll see how he performs this postseason if the Mavs keep the pace. 

With all that said, I don't think there's a clear cut deal right now today that justifies moving THJ. I think Buddy would be close, but Kings are probably looking for a ransom and given THJ's professionalism and general chemistry I've started to cool from that avenue. Beal is the pipedream and would obviously be the KP-like deal we're all lobbying for. So if the Mavs we're to make a trade, THJ wouldn't be on my shortlist initially (contract matching may force it). I see Powell, Brunson, Burke, WCS, Johnson, all much more expendable and available in a trade than THJ. He has made himself at the end of the day a core rotational piece, and a pretty darn good one at that.