12-21-2020, 09:09 PM
From ESPN:
The remaining players who didn't sign extensions this year will enter a 2021 free-agency market in which nine teams are projected to have at least $20 million in cap space, led by the New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder -- all of whom could be at least $50 million under the cap.
The six other teams with significant space will be the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers (assuming Andre Drummond isn't re-signed), Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors.
Since 2016, there have been seven restricted free agents who have signed an offer sheet with another team. Five of them (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Tyus Jones, Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kyle Anderson) were not matched, allowing those players to change teams after their rookie contract was up.
So who could join that group in 2021?
John Collins
Collins had been open about saying he deserved a max extension this offseason.
"I just feel like the work I put in speaks for itself," Collins told reporters in June when asked about a potential max offer. "The other players who are doing what I'm doing are in contention for those things. It's something hopefully we can come to an agreement this summer because I feel like I'm definitely putting in a lot of work, showing my value, my worth."
If the Hawks were willing to commit a max extension to Collins, the forward would have received one at the start of free agency, similar to Adebayo, Fox, Mitchell and Tatum.
I had Collins pegged in the four-year $110 million range, comparable to the Celtics' Jaylen Brown. The $24.5 million contract would have been $3.5 million less than the max but would have guaranteed Collins more than $100 million in the next four years.
Because the Hawks committed money that stretches into 2020-21 on Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn, Collins' $12.4 million free-agent hold is less valuable, so Atlanta could have taken a more aggressive approach on a long-term contract this offseason. The Hawks were not projected to have cap space with or without a Collins extension.
The non-extension for Collins does not signal that the forward is not part of the future even with the Gallinari signing. However, as we saw with the max contract on Brandon Ingram in New Orleans, the cost of a new contract will likely increase if Collins has an All-Star type season.
Jarrett Allen
Allen could have followed teammates LeVert (three years, $52.5 million) and Spencer Dinwiddie (three years, $34 million) and signed a team-friendly contract at a lesser number (think Jakob Poeltl at $9-10 million per year).
The contract would have secured him guaranteed money (and also likely would have gotten his agent fired) but at an annual value below the midlevel exception.
Although his minutes and production might drop this season with DeAndre Jordan now starting, Allen has enough of a body of work his first three seasons to secure a contract in the $14-16 million range with Brooklyn or with a team on an offer sheet.
In the six seeding games he played before the postseason began, the center averaged 15.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.2 blocks.
He ranks as the second-best center in free agency, behind Drummond.
For Brooklyn, pausing on an extension allows the team to get its finances in order for 2021-22.
Including the $12.2 million Dinwiddie player option, the Nets have $140 million in guaranteed salary and are projected once again to be in the luxury tax.
Lonzo Ball and Lauri Markkanen
This duo represents the classic example of their respective teams being hesitant on buying stock into the future without more of a body of work.
After two injury-plagued seasons to begin his career, Ball missed only eight games in 2019-20, but was unable to agree with the Pelicans on an extension.
From mid-January to the season postponement in March, the guard played his best ball, often alongside Zion Williamson, averaging 13 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds and almost 2 steals. He was especially productive just before the season was stopped.
If Ball stays healthy and plays at a high level this season, a new contract should start in the $16-18 million range next offseason, similar to the Hornets' Terry Rozier and Spurs' Dejounte Murray (keep in mind that the $16.8 million salary this season of teammate Eric Bledsoe ranks no. 22 among all point guards). The high end for Ball would be the four-year, $80 million contract that Malcolm Brogdon signed with the Indiana Pacers in 2019.
Markkanen was hurt not only by an inconsistent preseason (shot 38% from the field and 31% from 3) but also by a short preseason for the new Bulls front office and coaching staff to evaluate.
Markkanen shot a career-worst 33.1% in November 2019 while averaging 12.0 points. There were nagging injuries, an oblique issue in the early part of the season and a sprained ankle in early January. He later missed 15 games with a stress reaction in his right pelvis. He returned for four games in March before the season was suspended.
A year ago, a four-year, $70 million new contract (similar to Myles Turner's) would have been seen as a bargain. Now that same number is considered an overpay.
Markkanen has a $20.7 million free-agent cap hold, and the Bulls have a full season to evaluate him.
If he plays like his sophomore season, when he ranked No. 13 on the ESPN 25-under-25 list, a new contract should project in the four-year $80 million range.
Other players not extended: Malik Monk (Charlotte), D.J. Wilson (Milwaukee), Josh Hart (New Orleans), Dennis Smith Jr. (New York), Frank Ntilikina (New York), Zach Collins (Portland), Justin Jackson (Oklahoma City), Terrance Ferguson (Philadelphia) and Tony Bradley (Philadelphia).
![[Image: greyline.png]](https://a.espncdn.com/i/mlb/infographics/greyline.png)
Veteran extension candidates
James, Antetokounmpo, George, Gobert, Steven Adams and Monte Morris all signed extensions this month, receiving more than $750 million combined in new money. Antetokounmpo's deal is the largest in NBA history; Gobert's ranks third.
While there was a Dec. 21 deadline for players who have two years left on their contract like Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid to sign an extension, extension-eligible veterans who are on the final year of their contract can sign an extension any time up until the start of the 2021 offseason.
Two players in particular could be candidates to get a deal done at some point before July.
Jrue Holiday
There is no player with more leverage in the NBA than the new Milwaukee Bucks point guard.
Not only did Milwaukee have to surrender three first-round picks and two first-round swaps to acquire him from New Orleans but the recent Antetokounmpo supermax extension has the Bucks' payroll hamstrung for the foreseeable.
Holiday has a $26.0 million player option that he will likely decline, and Milwaukee runs the risk of losing him for nothing if it draws a line in the sand on his next contract.
The Bucks are already over the salary cap next season, with or without Holiday, and would have only the $9.5 million midlevel exception and backup point guard D.J. Augustin to replace him if he left.
Although he is eligible to sign an extension now, Holiday has a trade restriction limiting the Bucks in the amount of years they can offer (two and not four) and total money ($54 million compared with $134 million). The salary in the first year is also only $366K more than his player option.
The trade restriction gets lifted Feb. 26. Expect Holiday to receive a lucrative offer when it is.
Will the contract be for the maximum amount allowed of four years, $135 million (there can be an additional $5 million of bonuses per season) with a starting salary of $30.1 million in 2021-22?
That is still to be determined, but considering that the Raptors' Kyle Lowry signed a three-year, $93 million contract in 2017 and then tacked on an extension for $30.5 million in October 2019, expect the annual average value for Holiday to be close to $30 million.
P.J. Tucker
In the three years since he signed a four-year, $32 million contract, Tucker has yet to miss a game, and he has played every position he's been asked to play, including center in small-ball lineups.
However, the Houston Rockets have a new front-office and coaching staff and there has been no indication that a new contract for Tucker is on the horizon.
Because of the over-38 rule (Tucker turns 36 in March), Houston can offer only a two-year extension (it normally would be four seasons). The maximum allowed in total salary is $25 million, and that would trigger a restriction that would prevent Houston from trading Tucker until the offseason.
However, if the Rockets start the contract at $8.4 million (a 5% increase on his 2020-21 salary), Tucker would be allowed to be traded before the March trade deadline.
The Rockets have $125 million in guaranteed salary for this season, and a Tucker extension will put Houston in the luxury tax for a second consecutive season. That could change if James Harden is traded and Houston takes back less money in the deal.
2018 second-round picks
In the past, we have seen second-round picks Josh Richardson, Norman Powell and Dillon Brooks take advantage of a change in the 2017 CBA that made players eligible to sign an extension on the second anniversary of their contract with a larger salary percentage increase in Year 1.
Monte Morris signed such a deal this offseason, inking a three-year $27 million extension with the Nuggets, who had selected him with the No. 51 pick in 2018.
There are four other players from the 2018 second-round draft class who have outplayed their current $1.7 million contracts and are eligible to sign up to a four-year $53 million extension: Mitchell Robinson (Knicks), Devonte' Graham (Hornets), Gary Trent Jr. (Trail Blazers) and Svi Mykhailiuk (Pistons).
The benefit of rewarding a player now comes at the cost of financial flexibility for the team in the future.
For example, extending Robinson at a starting salary of $12 million would cost the Knicks $10 million of cap space in 2021.
What the Knicks and Robinson's representatives can do is forgo an extension now and wait until the summer of 2021, when the team could decline Robinson's $1.8 million team option, making him a restricted free agent. The Knicks could then take advantage of Robinson's small $1.9 million cap hold, using their cap space before coming back around to sign Robinson to a new deal. However, that comes at the risk of losing Robinson to another team -- which is what happened to the Rockets when the Mavericks outpriced them on Chandler Parsons in 2014. The same logic above holds true for the Miami Heat and Duncan Robinson.
The undrafted forward is extension eligible now, but Miami would see its cap flexibility in 2021 shrink from $27 million in room to $17 million.
The remaining players who didn't sign extensions this year will enter a 2021 free-agency market in which nine teams are projected to have at least $20 million in cap space, led by the New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder -- all of whom could be at least $50 million under the cap.
The six other teams with significant space will be the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers (assuming Andre Drummond isn't re-signed), Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors.
Since 2016, there have been seven restricted free agents who have signed an offer sheet with another team. Five of them (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Tyus Jones, Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kyle Anderson) were not matched, allowing those players to change teams after their rookie contract was up.
So who could join that group in 2021?
John Collins
Collins had been open about saying he deserved a max extension this offseason.
"I just feel like the work I put in speaks for itself," Collins told reporters in June when asked about a potential max offer. "The other players who are doing what I'm doing are in contention for those things. It's something hopefully we can come to an agreement this summer because I feel like I'm definitely putting in a lot of work, showing my value, my worth."
If the Hawks were willing to commit a max extension to Collins, the forward would have received one at the start of free agency, similar to Adebayo, Fox, Mitchell and Tatum.
I had Collins pegged in the four-year $110 million range, comparable to the Celtics' Jaylen Brown. The $24.5 million contract would have been $3.5 million less than the max but would have guaranteed Collins more than $100 million in the next four years.
Because the Hawks committed money that stretches into 2020-21 on Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn, Collins' $12.4 million free-agent hold is less valuable, so Atlanta could have taken a more aggressive approach on a long-term contract this offseason. The Hawks were not projected to have cap space with or without a Collins extension.
The non-extension for Collins does not signal that the forward is not part of the future even with the Gallinari signing. However, as we saw with the max contract on Brandon Ingram in New Orleans, the cost of a new contract will likely increase if Collins has an All-Star type season.
Jarrett Allen
Allen could have followed teammates LeVert (three years, $52.5 million) and Spencer Dinwiddie (three years, $34 million) and signed a team-friendly contract at a lesser number (think Jakob Poeltl at $9-10 million per year).
The contract would have secured him guaranteed money (and also likely would have gotten his agent fired) but at an annual value below the midlevel exception.
Although his minutes and production might drop this season with DeAndre Jordan now starting, Allen has enough of a body of work his first three seasons to secure a contract in the $14-16 million range with Brooklyn or with a team on an offer sheet.
In the six seeding games he played before the postseason began, the center averaged 15.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.2 blocks.
He ranks as the second-best center in free agency, behind Drummond.
For Brooklyn, pausing on an extension allows the team to get its finances in order for 2021-22.
Including the $12.2 million Dinwiddie player option, the Nets have $140 million in guaranteed salary and are projected once again to be in the luxury tax.
Lonzo Ball and Lauri Markkanen
This duo represents the classic example of their respective teams being hesitant on buying stock into the future without more of a body of work.
After two injury-plagued seasons to begin his career, Ball missed only eight games in 2019-20, but was unable to agree with the Pelicans on an extension.
From mid-January to the season postponement in March, the guard played his best ball, often alongside Zion Williamson, averaging 13 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds and almost 2 steals. He was especially productive just before the season was stopped.
If Ball stays healthy and plays at a high level this season, a new contract should start in the $16-18 million range next offseason, similar to the Hornets' Terry Rozier and Spurs' Dejounte Murray (keep in mind that the $16.8 million salary this season of teammate Eric Bledsoe ranks no. 22 among all point guards). The high end for Ball would be the four-year, $80 million contract that Malcolm Brogdon signed with the Indiana Pacers in 2019.
Markkanen was hurt not only by an inconsistent preseason (shot 38% from the field and 31% from 3) but also by a short preseason for the new Bulls front office and coaching staff to evaluate.
Markkanen shot a career-worst 33.1% in November 2019 while averaging 12.0 points. There were nagging injuries, an oblique issue in the early part of the season and a sprained ankle in early January. He later missed 15 games with a stress reaction in his right pelvis. He returned for four games in March before the season was suspended.
A year ago, a four-year, $70 million new contract (similar to Myles Turner's) would have been seen as a bargain. Now that same number is considered an overpay.
Markkanen has a $20.7 million free-agent cap hold, and the Bulls have a full season to evaluate him.
If he plays like his sophomore season, when he ranked No. 13 on the ESPN 25-under-25 list, a new contract should project in the four-year $80 million range.
Other players not extended: Malik Monk (Charlotte), D.J. Wilson (Milwaukee), Josh Hart (New Orleans), Dennis Smith Jr. (New York), Frank Ntilikina (New York), Zach Collins (Portland), Justin Jackson (Oklahoma City), Terrance Ferguson (Philadelphia) and Tony Bradley (Philadelphia).
Veteran extension candidatesJames, Antetokounmpo, George, Gobert, Steven Adams and Monte Morris all signed extensions this month, receiving more than $750 million combined in new money. Antetokounmpo's deal is the largest in NBA history; Gobert's ranks third.
While there was a Dec. 21 deadline for players who have two years left on their contract like Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid to sign an extension, extension-eligible veterans who are on the final year of their contract can sign an extension any time up until the start of the 2021 offseason.
Two players in particular could be candidates to get a deal done at some point before July.
Jrue Holiday
There is no player with more leverage in the NBA than the new Milwaukee Bucks point guard.
Not only did Milwaukee have to surrender three first-round picks and two first-round swaps to acquire him from New Orleans but the recent Antetokounmpo supermax extension has the Bucks' payroll hamstrung for the foreseeable.
Holiday has a $26.0 million player option that he will likely decline, and Milwaukee runs the risk of losing him for nothing if it draws a line in the sand on his next contract.
The Bucks are already over the salary cap next season, with or without Holiday, and would have only the $9.5 million midlevel exception and backup point guard D.J. Augustin to replace him if he left.
Although he is eligible to sign an extension now, Holiday has a trade restriction limiting the Bucks in the amount of years they can offer (two and not four) and total money ($54 million compared with $134 million). The salary in the first year is also only $366K more than his player option.
The trade restriction gets lifted Feb. 26. Expect Holiday to receive a lucrative offer when it is.
Will the contract be for the maximum amount allowed of four years, $135 million (there can be an additional $5 million of bonuses per season) with a starting salary of $30.1 million in 2021-22?
That is still to be determined, but considering that the Raptors' Kyle Lowry signed a three-year, $93 million contract in 2017 and then tacked on an extension for $30.5 million in October 2019, expect the annual average value for Holiday to be close to $30 million.
P.J. Tucker
In the three years since he signed a four-year, $32 million contract, Tucker has yet to miss a game, and he has played every position he's been asked to play, including center in small-ball lineups.
However, the Houston Rockets have a new front-office and coaching staff and there has been no indication that a new contract for Tucker is on the horizon.
Because of the over-38 rule (Tucker turns 36 in March), Houston can offer only a two-year extension (it normally would be four seasons). The maximum allowed in total salary is $25 million, and that would trigger a restriction that would prevent Houston from trading Tucker until the offseason.
However, if the Rockets start the contract at $8.4 million (a 5% increase on his 2020-21 salary), Tucker would be allowed to be traded before the March trade deadline.
The Rockets have $125 million in guaranteed salary for this season, and a Tucker extension will put Houston in the luxury tax for a second consecutive season. That could change if James Harden is traded and Houston takes back less money in the deal.
2018 second-round picksIn the past, we have seen second-round picks Josh Richardson, Norman Powell and Dillon Brooks take advantage of a change in the 2017 CBA that made players eligible to sign an extension on the second anniversary of their contract with a larger salary percentage increase in Year 1.
Monte Morris signed such a deal this offseason, inking a three-year $27 million extension with the Nuggets, who had selected him with the No. 51 pick in 2018.
There are four other players from the 2018 second-round draft class who have outplayed their current $1.7 million contracts and are eligible to sign up to a four-year $53 million extension: Mitchell Robinson (Knicks), Devonte' Graham (Hornets), Gary Trent Jr. (Trail Blazers) and Svi Mykhailiuk (Pistons).
The benefit of rewarding a player now comes at the cost of financial flexibility for the team in the future.
For example, extending Robinson at a starting salary of $12 million would cost the Knicks $10 million of cap space in 2021.
What the Knicks and Robinson's representatives can do is forgo an extension now and wait until the summer of 2021, when the team could decline Robinson's $1.8 million team option, making him a restricted free agent. The Knicks could then take advantage of Robinson's small $1.9 million cap hold, using their cap space before coming back around to sign Robinson to a new deal. However, that comes at the risk of losing Robinson to another team -- which is what happened to the Rockets when the Mavericks outpriced them on Chandler Parsons in 2014. The same logic above holds true for the Miami Heat and Duncan Robinson.
The undrafted forward is extension eligible now, but Miami would see its cap flexibility in 2021 shrink from $27 million in room to $17 million.