Mastering the End of Game Dynamics/Game 4

[Reunion Mav Old]

This Rockets game gut punch (for the 17th time of only 28 losses) reinforces the number one dynamic the Mavs need to master. We are and should be very proud, hopeful and full of enjoyment about our future. We not only can compete with every single team, even the Clippers. For large portions of most every game, we don't just compete, we are the better team. We are also an easier team to root for than most other teams. Luka and the Mavs are fun and all of our guys are easy to root for. 

The Mavericks simply must master the End of the game dynamics. 
1. The end of the game is different. The start of the third Quarter is different. The fourth quarter has it's own thing. The last few minutes has it's own completely different dynamics that we are still pretty poor at even though we have improved some things and did win a few close games in February and March. 

2. The Mavericks offense is awesome and cannot be stopped without extreme effort on defense and some truly wise defensive plays. These two things are the biggest difference because it is precisely what the Rockets didn't and couldn't do until the last 5 minutes or so. The Rockets, like other experienced teams, including the 2011 Mavericks, generated the extreme defensive effort AND made the wise defensive plays. (I do want to point out that others have pointed out...we got plenty of stops late too. We have gotten better at that.) 

3. To expand on my main point, we need an effective offensive response when the opponent does muster the effort to stop great ball movement and shot making. This only happens at the end of the game (most nights) or when a team gets down double digits (which also happened last night). We need the guy or guys who can score when the offense breaks down and the others continue to play off of them. I agree that KP is potentially the best guy and they did go to him some but it should have been more. 

4. KP is not nearly good enough at scoring when the offense has been stopped like Dirk, Harden and a very few others. He flails in desperation due to lack of trust in his offensive moves way to often. He fails to defeat good defense way to often. I believe he has the physical skills and physical advantages where he could become that guy. Indeed, he is clearly making progress with that increasing deadly bank shot over the top and offensive put backs and fearless threes. I agree that the Luka and KP pick and roll development is a great place to look to help us solve the end of game offensive dynamic (ie. Winning Time). 

5. Defense is also extremely important on the winning possessions of course. I give the Rockets credit. For the end of the game, they have 5 skilled defensive wing types who are strong, wily and able to generate a kind of defense that our current team simply cannot. But, we did generate several misses and some turnovers. We did get enough stops. We did generate the extreme defensive effort.

6. I don't think our current historically great offensive team has as much room for improvement on defense. That would take player additions that somehow did not destroy the offense. We have to win with offense and we really did manage to play enough defense and enough offense last night to win....until we blew it. My point, we win the End of Game Dynamic with the best defense we can muster AND more importantly, an impossible to stop closing offense. This team can do that but they have not done it yet. 

7. When great ball movement fails, the ball must end with the unstoppable players with enough time to score the game winning shots with a much higher percentage. Another way to say this, our scorers must incredibly frustrate the other teams great defense by scoring anyway, like Dirk and Harden. I nominate Luka and KP with THJ being the highly integrated third option who can score like Jet. 

8. It might look like this, with all due credit to several others who have mentioned some of these points:
    A. Initiate with any play, pick and roll or otherwise and move the ball for potential open shots. This runs the clock unless we do create the open shot, which often will not happen but the clock did run. 
    B. With 12-15 seconds, get the ball to Luka or KP. Go to the trusted scoring move/play with time to execute with confidence (with the defense already scrambling from the ball movement instead of the time waste. 
    C. With 5-6 seconds, give the scorer with the ball, either Luka or KP the chance to make the not so desperate scoring play which can include a late pass out only if THJ or others is now open due to a late double team. Otherwise, frustrate the good defense by scoring anyway or getting fouled a la Dirk. 

Ok, that is my best thinking on a sad Maverick morning.  How do we solve the End of Game Dynamic. Discuss.

[omahen]

One of the problems, I think, is that our offense is extremely static, especially in crunch. 4 guys out standing and looking at Luka driblling the ball. KP is not able to be really effective one on one, but he is very effective when he gets half a step advantage with off ball movement. Perfect example when Luka was posting up and KP cut in. It took him a couple of seconds to realize he can do that, not just watch Luka

[ItsGoTime]

I think the end of game dynamic should include Luka, KP and Curry with our 2 best defenders during that particular game. This will mean that most of the time THJ is not in the game and to me a big reason that we need a defensive replacement like OPJ (wish we went harder after RoCo). 

I agree KP and Luka should be the focal points on offense where the other 3 are kick out options when the defense collapses on those 2.

That to me is the way to get those 2 with the experience they need to overcome the ratcheted up defense because that is to me what is missing.

[bartlettbear]

Luka in the post at then end of the game is the answer have him post up and through the ball into him, especially with a 4 point lead and 30 seconds left. The closer you are to the basket the easier it is too score.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Another shot creator is needed.  The Rockets D basically looked like it was lining up for free throws when Luka had the ball at the end.  With the lane that crowded, Luka’s greatest strength...getting to the basket...is negated.  They are basically saying “you are welcome to jack up a long 3 or drive and dish and let Maxi/DFS/THJ or Seth beat us.  We are happy to take our chances on that one.

Seth is a very valuable sixth man type.  Maxi can play the 4 or 5 off the bench.  DFS would be a fantastic Swiss Army knife off the bench.  Unfortunately, none of those guys are 4th starters as they are being asked to be currently.  We are two players away depending on who the two players are.  One has to be a lock down defender and one has to be able to create their own shot.  

Off topic, but worth keeping an eye on.  The KP + Luka minutes were about the same as the minutes they played without the other (one was on the floor at all times).  The KP + Luka minutes were neutral.  The Luka w/o KP minutes were a plus and the KP w/o Luka minutes were a minus (KP was -11 on the night).  That last lineup misses Brunson as KP and Brunson and KP and Curry work well together.

[FunkBoreland]

I'm almost consider Luka the one to lose this game but it was different factors. 

Rockets game we had about 4 players with 20+ points, tonight it was just 2 players (KP, Luka) with double digit scores, the rest were scoring single digits, mostly by relying on the 3pointer. Carlisle had this weird rotation of subbing out plenty of times in the first half (with Boban ,Cleveland, Burke and back and forth with the starters), but got away with that and stick with Luka and KP for way tooo long in the second half. 

THJ has been for most of the season a 3D guy, but tonight just D. On 3PT's he was 0-8, almost a 1/3 of the teams missed threes were cause by THJ. He could of gone to his mid range shot or go to the basket. But he got too comfy sitting outside the 3pointer.

Next game adjustment, expect Carlisle to find THJ and make his shots early in the game.

[dirkfansince1998]

I'm almost consider Luka the one to lose this game but it was different factors. 

Rockets game we had about 4 players with 20+ points, tonight it was just 2 players (KP, Luka) with double digit scores, the rest were scoring single digits, mostly by relying on the 3pointer. Carlisle had this weird rotation of subbing out plenty of times in the first half (with Boban ,Cleveland, Burke and back and forth with the starters), but got away with that and stick with Luka and KP for way tooo long in the second half. 

THJ has been for most of the season a 3D guy, but tonight just D. On 3PT's he was 0-8, almost a 1/3 of the teams missed threes were cause by THJ. He could of gone to his mid range shot or go to the basket. But he got too comfy sitting outside the 3pointer.

Next game adjustment, expect Carlisle to find THJ and make his shots early in the game.

Neither THJ or DFS played any kind of useful defense tonight and I think that´s the biggest problem. The really good teams. Even undersized ones like the Rockets can step it up on defense when it matters most. Mavs are happily exchanging baskets and taking the lead with superior fire power but once the opponents increases the intensity and physicality they cannot match it.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm almost consider Luka the one to lose this game but it was different factors.

Rockets game we had about 4 players with 20+ points, tonight it was just 2 players (KP, Luka) with double digit scores, the rest were scoring single digits, mostly by relying on the 3pointer. Carlisle had this weird rotation of subbing out plenty of times in the first half (with Boban ,Cleveland, Burke and back and forth with the starters), but got away with that and stick with Luka and KP for way tooo long in the second half.

THJ has been for most of the season a 3D guy, but tonight just D. On 3PT's he was 0-8, almost a 1/3 of the teams missed threes were cause by THJ. He could of gone to his mid range shot or go to the basket. But he got too comfy sitting outside the 3pointer.

Next game adjustment, expect Carlisle to find THJ and make his shots early in the game.

Neither THJ or DFS played any kind of useful defense tonight and I think that´s the biggest problem. The really good teams. Even undersized ones like the Rockets can step it up on defense when it matters most. Mavs are happily exchanging baskets and taking the lead with superior fire power but once the opponents increases the intensity and physicality they cannot match it.

I don't see a path to improving on both THJ and DFS this off-season. Tough wings are hard to come by. I'd settle for Favors as the DFS replacement (although he isn't a wing), but I'm still not sure how we obtain a high quality wing to replace THJ.

[ItsGoTime]

I'm almost consider Luka the one to lose this game but it was different factors.

Rockets game we had about 4 players with 20+ points, tonight it was just 2 players (KP, Luka) with double digit scores, the rest were scoring single digits, mostly by relying on the 3pointer. Carlisle had this weird rotation of subbing out plenty of times in the first half (with Boban ,Cleveland, Burke and back and forth with the starters), but got away with that and stick with Luka and KP for way tooo long in the second half.

THJ has been for most of the season a 3D guy, but tonight just D. On 3PT's he was 0-8, almost a 1/3 of the teams missed threes were cause by THJ. He could of gone to his mid range shot or go to the basket. But he got too comfy sitting outside the 3pointer.

Next game adjustment, expect Carlisle to find THJ and make his shots early in the game.

Neither THJ or DFS played any kind of useful defense tonight and I think that´s the biggest problem. The really good teams. Even undersized ones like the Rockets can step it up on defense when it matters most. Mavs are happily exchanging baskets and taking the lead with superior fire power but once the opponents increases the intensity and physicality they cannot match it.

I don't see a path to improving on both THJ and DFS this off-season. Tough wings are hard to come by. I'd settle for Favors as the DFS replacement (although he isn't a wing), but I'm still not sure how we obtain a high quality wing to replace THJ.

OPJ is my solution.

[omahen]

OPJ is my solution.

That ship has sailed. We don't have contracts for him, unless you are willing to trade half a team or you think Chicago would take Powell, Wright and Jackson.

[dirkfansince1998]

I'm almost consider Luka the one to lose this game but it was different factors.

Rockets game we had about 4 players with 20+ points, tonight it was just 2 players (KP, Luka) with double digit scores, the rest were scoring single digits, mostly by relying on the 3pointer. Carlisle had this weird rotation of subbing out plenty of times in the first half (with Boban ,Cleveland, Burke and back and forth with the starters), but got away with that and stick with Luka and KP for way tooo long in the second half.

THJ has been for most of the season a 3D guy, but tonight just D. On 3PT's he was 0-8, almost a 1/3 of the teams missed threes were cause by THJ. He could of gone to his mid range shot or go to the basket. But he got too comfy sitting outside the 3pointer.

Next game adjustment, expect Carlisle to find THJ and make his shots early in the game.

Neither THJ or DFS played any kind of useful defense tonight and I think that´s the biggest problem. The really good teams. Even undersized ones like the Rockets can step it up on defense when it matters most. Mavs are happily exchanging baskets and taking the lead with superior fire power but once the opponents increases the intensity and physicality they cannot match it.

I don't see a path to improving on both THJ and DFS this off-season. Tough wings are hard to come by. I'd settle for Favors as the DFS replacement (although he isn't a wing), but I'm still not sure how we obtain a high quality wing to replace THJ.

OPJ is my solution.

There is no single player that can solve the problems. Even adding multiple good defenders probably wouldn´t solve it. Hustle and energy aren´t related to skill. A defensive scheme goes beyond single player impact.
Right now the Mavs lack both. Getting badly outhustled and giving up crucial second chance points or losing possession because of it. Against the Rockets RW gets crucial offensive rebounds over a ball watching Luka and RoCo easily beats a sleeping Maxi for the tip with 3s left on the clock. Against the Suns 6`3 Ricky Rubio gets two offensive rebounds in a row in the clutch.

The Mavs have the worst transition defense in the league and the really bad  part is that even a succesful offensive possession can lead to a fastbreak on the other end because no one is getting back. How can a team that ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed of TOV rank dead last in allowed fastbreak points. Answer is easy.
Terrible coaching combined with zero effort. I already mentioned it in another topic but the loss of talent in the coaching staff has been a big problem. Casey was a defensive master mind.  His replacements in the last few years never came close. I would be really happy if the rumors around Mosleys departure are true. Mavs need a better defensive coordinator.

That´s the coaching part. Next thing is mentaliity. Watching the Mavs I never feel like the individual players take any pride in being a good defender or getting a stop. The entire team is going through the motions on defense. No one is willing to invest the extra 10% that are necessary for a team that wants to be a contender.
We do not have a leader or an identity on the defensive end. I watched a lot of basketball in the last few days and it is easy to see why teams like the Raptors, Celtics or even the Rockets can win games on the defensive end. They have leadership (Kyle Lowry, Marcus Smart, RoCo) and even their stars (including Harden who really improved on the defensive end) are willing to go all out on defense when it matters most.

[Reunion Mav Old]

First I want to thank mavsluvr for the few points threads. They are great and also helpful for analyzing any progress on the end of game dynamic. The posts breaking down the last few minutes is particularly helpful.

2. We need to console ourselves. Though it is absolutely brutal to the players and to us to keep experiencing these painful losses, they are apparently still needed opportunities for our team to learn how to win. As I posted earlier, youth has never been served in the NBA and the need to go thru the process is a huge part of why that is. 

3. To help in our consolation, I am observing a relatively fast learning curve for this team. There were numerous examples last night where we did some different and better things than we did in previous games. The ball ran thru BOTH Luka and KP with Seth serving as the primary 3rd ball handler. In addition, we did not get locked against the shot clock as often.

4. There will never be a cure for missing key shots. We have good shooters but when they miss...losses happen. I did observe us to go to the basket, Luka and go to the post, KP to try to get better shots. We did offensive rebound down the stretch. These are good things we have learned to do. 

5. Our free throw attempts and makes were both really good. That is an improvement!

6. Our defense, in spite of our complaints, has indeed gotten plenty of late stops both of these 2 games. There is improvement there as well (with plenty of room for more improvement both on the team and in need for wing defenders). 

7. I watched the Rockets last night as well. They locked down Antetokoumpo (sp?) even better than they did Luka down the stretch. We scored better than Milwaukee did. 

8. Yes, we did get hit with our own bench medicine and boy were the Phoenix bench players ready.

[ballsrchr]

I have to go with coaching that doesn't respond to the dynamics of the game...but the players are also responsible.  The Mavericks are a great offensive team...with a fairly good defense.  They tend to romp around, having fun, get up 10 or 11 points...then let off the throttle a bit.  They stay 10 points ahead, but never pull away.  The other team picks it up, steps on the throttle a bit.  Suddenly the Mavs are in a dog fight of their own making.  They forget what makes them a great offensive team and start chucking away from the three point line. And slowly give the game to the opposing team.

What should they do?  Play full throttle for 48 (or more) minutes.  Quit giving the games away.  The players are too happy to romp around and cruise at 60% throttle...so they are responsible.  But...where's the coaching?  Who should be asking them to play at full throttle till the game's over?  The coaching staff.  Who should be telling them that the inside game sets up the three point shots?...not the other way around.  I could say more...but I'm a little bit disgusted.  

Waiting for the next game.  Mavs forever.

[Reunion Mav Old]

I have to go with coaching that doesn't respond to the dynamics of the game...but the players are also responsible.  The Mavericks are a great offensive team...with a fairly good defense.  They tend to romp around, having fun, get up 10 or 11 points...then let off the throttle a bit.  They stay 10 points ahead, but never pull away.  The other team picks it up, steps on the throttle a bit.  Suddenly the Mavs are in a dog fight of their own making.  They forget what makes them a great offensive team and start chucking away from the three point line. And slowly give the game to the opposing team.

What should they do?  Play full throttle for 48 (or more) minutes.  Quit giving the games away.  The players are too happy to romp around and cruise at 60% throttle...so they are responsible.  But...where's the coaching?  Who should be asking them to play at full throttle till the game's over?  The coaching staff.  Who should be telling them that the inside game sets up the three point shots?...not the other way around.  I could say more...but I'm a little bit disgusted.  

Waiting for the next game.  Mavs forever.

One of the dynamics I've described is that the end of the game is different as the other team really picks it up. The other time this happens is when a team gets down double digits. A key to maturity needed to expand the lead is to understand is that an increase in intensity is required because now you will get the other teams very best. That is why most double digit leads in the NBA shrink. When we lose leads, it is because the other team is more likely to maximize effort as the unhappy team than we are as the happy team.

To the Mavs credit, we get right back into the game when we get behind too. With our offense, we may do that as well or better than anyone. We pick up the offense and give the effort needed to get 2-3 stops. So....doing better at building leads is a very similar dynamic to the end of game dynamic.

---

Post Kings game update: I continue to see progress.

1. We did win and overcome some pretty unfortunate bounces and the foul call on KP.
2. Trey Burke made both free throws with a 2 point lead though Luka and Maxi did miss free throws.
3. We won this games by getting lots of stops and playing improved defense. We have gotten enough stops all three games in the bubble. This has put us in good position to win all three games. 
4. Luka did not ever get stuck against the clock. We got ourselves decent to good shots. 
5. The Clippers play great defense down the stretch. That will be a challenge I hope we meet. 
6. We really only had Luka to create shots when KP fouled out and he did not rely on the normal Maverick move the ball around offense. Instead, he just did a very nice job of dominating and creating shots, too many of which we did not make.
7. What saved us was another really good end of game dynamic, we really rebounded.
8. Getting 50 free throws has to get a mention here. Making 78%, including the 2 games clinchers, is not too bad.

[FunkBoreland]

If you want to watch a team that's been having great end game mechanics, watch the Suns. Not only the players but Coach Monty Williams has been managing the team well with players we don't hear often.

[SwisherPrice]

Combination of your primary scorer/creator lacking experience + a supporting cast that just isn't very good. It's hard for a 2nd year player to be expected to fully understand the game to make up for the weaknesses of the 3rd-5th players on the court.

Let's face it, in the Bubble, the Mavs have one of the best 1-2 punches in the West. But from #3 to the end of the rotation/bench, they are one of the weakest. Even some of the worse teams in the standings have more depth.

[Reunion Mav Old]

I was out of town for Milwaukee and Utah. We won two close games. I saw Luka's stats and some highlights. What did we do to show progress that resulted in two wins. 

It is all about progress: things the players have figured out how to do that they previously had not accomplished. I will watch and judge for myself but what did you wise Mav fans see?

PS. I know today was about a lot of bench play time, the return of Seth, Boban etc but improving our bench play is one of our very needed things to work on.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Update after Portland: The pain in my heart feels like a playoff loss. But...were you not proud of the Mavericks tonight? Did it not feel like we really should have won? This was as close to a playoff game as you can get because it was a play in game for Portland. If you want playoff prep and superb end of game practice, this was it. 

1. All hail to DFS. He made what could have been a big game winning shot!
2. We got a lot of free throws and for a long time made a high percentage, especially THJ. Luka made 7-9 but he missed a big one. KP made all but one so I have to give him an A- because he too missed one more than Lillard. We are improving...a lot. 
3. Defense: against Milwaukee we continued our trend of getting enough stops. Our effort and strategy were good. Against Portland, I thought we played hard and tried several good strategies but the defense only gets a C-. Too many fouls and bad one on one defeats. If we had gotten the level of stops we had been getting, we win decisively.
4. Offense: We have come an incredible way to even better offense, including down the stretch. We are getting and making open shots in so many different ways. The Clippers stopped us. No one else has since we learned from the Houston game. 
5. This game was an incredibly good practice. We did so many things right. We win this exact game 8 of 10 times. So many things went against us and we still had and made a very likely game winning shot. 
6. There have been potential discoveries: Has MKG found a playoff role? Has Trey Burke become a legitimate scoring defender option? Has Luka truly found a way to improve his defense? Can Boban be an option to clean the boards and keep the Clippers Harrell off the boards?

In the big scheme of things, internal improvement plays a huge role moving forward. This season, especially in the bubble, we have seen much improvement and that hopefully will result sooner than later in end of game mastery.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Some more answers have become apparent leading up to game 5 while still basking in the Luka Magic glow:

1. Yes! Luka has found a way to improve his defense and his offense....Wow! I find myself what kind of improvement will we see next year after his shocking improvement this year. 
2. We still did several things wrong down the stretch of game 4 and failed to win in regulation. We did win, twice now so all do credit to the wins! However, we did not really execute that well, missed a few free throws though not as many, we made some critical mistakes and failures to complete fast breaks. 
3. We did make game winning shots recently including a playoff highlight forever!
4. We have showed absolutely incredible resiliency even in our losses. It is my favorite thing about this team and it was my favorite thing about the championship run. I have noticed almost all of the other losing teams melt down in a sorry puddle. 
5. Yes, Boban has been able to give Harrell some trouble. Trey Burke has given us another shot creator! 
6. Turns out our playoff defense is way better than we ever dreamed it could be. 
7. We still have Rick at the end of games and Yes, Rick designed that pick very creative pick of Leonard that got Luka open to be the forever hero. 

Our end of game execution is still a work in progress with much more progress to be made but the playoff grade first 4 games is a solid B from my tough grading. Given their average had been a D-.....not so bad.