What we have

[DanSchwartzgan]

Before I start thinking about draft picks, trades and FA's, I wanted to spend some time on what we actually have.  There is no single stat that perfectly summarizes player value.  So, I put three compilation stats together to form a compilation of the compilations.  I wanted to see where players rank league-wide.   I decided to use RPM, the Simple Rating from 82games.com and 538.com's RAPTOR.  Combining three imperfect numbers probably isn't great methodology, but it probably beats relying on any one of them.  The thing I like about all three of these is they attempt to combine productivity with on-court impact.

There are 150 starters in the NBA.  Arguably, every 30 players (one per team) creates a tier.  For instance, players 121-150 are "5th starters" and 151-180 are 6th man types.  It is obviously more complex than this, but one way to look at teams is to look at your top 9 players like a golf score.  The lower the number (minutes weighted), the better the team (theoretically).  All positions don't have an even distribution of talent, so I used positional ranks in addition to league-wide ranks.

Here are the numbers:


  Mav stats.pdf (Size: 7.92 KB / Downloads: 39)

So, Luka is obviously a very good first team guy by both measures.   KP is a top to middle second best player guy.  This is encouraging since he wasn't good at all the first couple months.  If you take only the back half of the season for KP, he's easily a #1.  THJ surprised me.  He's a middle of the pack to back of the pack second man.  Many believe we need someone to come in and bump him to our 4th best player.  Great, but according to these three stat sets, it will take quite an acquisition to do that.    

The real hole here is at 4th/5th man.  We don't really have a one.  Yes, Brunson ranks between 4th and 5th best on the Mav's.  But he and Luka haven't been productive together.  Unless he can play with Luka, minutes will be limited.  So, the best you can say about Brunson is he's an EXCELLENT 6th man.  DFS, Curry and Powell are also very good 6th men. Maxi is a 7th man.  That level of talent is unbelievable if they are on your bench.  But two of them have to start.  That definitely hurts your golf score.

The nice thing about filling holes on this roster is Luka, KP and THJ are all multi-positional.  You can plug in a 3&D PG (why they pursued Beverly) or a 3&D Wing (why they liked Green).  They showed interest in Derrick Jones Jr., TJ Warren, Gallinari and Covington at various times in the last year.  All are SF/PF or PF/SF types (I call them Power Wings).  I think those guys will continue to be the prototype for what we pursue.  Given Curry's age (almost 30) and injury history and THJ's uncertain contract past next season, It wouldn't surprise me to see them draft another guard (PG or Wing) who can shoot.  We don't need an immediate contribution, so we can develop this player.  We are a little thinner at Power Wing and no one currently on the team is really a starter level guy.  I think this need is more immediate and probably gets attacked through trade or free agency.  As always, the overriding question is whether they will commit longer term money in 20/21 or go after someone on an expiring deal to preserve room for a 2021 FA chase.

[chaparral]

Before I start thinking about draft picks, trades and FA's, I wanted to spend some time on what we actually have.  There is no single stat that perfectly summarizes player value.  So, I put three compilation stats together to form a compilation of the compilations.  I wanted to see where players rank league-wide.   I decided to use RPM, the Simple Rating from 82games.com and 538.com's RAPTOR.  Combining three imperfect numbers probably isn't great methodology, but it probably beats relying on any one of them.  The thing I like about all three of these is they attempt to combine productivity with on-court impact.

There are 150 starters in the NBA.  Arguably, every 30 players (one per team) creates a tier.  For instance, players 121-150 are "5th starters" and 151-180 are 6th man types.  It is obviously more complex than this, but one way to look at teams is to look at your top 9 players like a golf score.  The lower the number (minutes weighted), the better the team (theoretically).  All positions don't have an even distribution of talent, so I used positional ranks in addition to league-wide ranks.

Here are the numbers:



So, Luka is obviously a very good first team guy by both measures.   KP is a top to middle second best player guy.  This is encouraging since he wasn't good at all the first couple months.  If you take only the back half of the season for KP, he's easily a #1.  THJ surprised me.  He's a middle of the pack to back of the pack second man.  Many believe we need someone to come in and bump him to our 4th best player.  Great, but according to these three stat sets, it will take quite an acquisition to do that.    

The real hole here is at 4th/5th man.  We don't really have a one.  Yes, Brunson ranks between 4th and 5th best on the Mav's.  But he and Luka haven't been productive together.  Unless he can play with Luka, minutes will be limited.  So, the best you can say about Brunson is he's an EXCELLENT 6th man.  DFS, Curry and Powell are also very good 6th men. Maxi is a 7th man.  That level of talent is unbelievable if they are on your bench.  But two of them have to start.  That definitely hurts your golf score.

The nice thing about filling holes on this roster is Luka, KP and THJ are all multi-positional.  You can plug in a 3&D PG (why they pursued Beverly) or a 3&D Wing (why they liked Green).  They showed interest in Derrick Jones Jr., TJ Warren, Gallinari and Covington at various times in the last year.  All are SF/PF or PF/SF types (I call them Power Wings).  I think those guys will continue to be the prototype for what we pursue.  Given Curry's age (almost 30) and injury history and THJ's uncertain contract past next season, It wouldn't surprise me to see them draft another guard (PG or Wing) who can shoot.  We don't need an immediate contribution, so we can develop this player.  We are a little thinner at Power Wing and no one currently on the team is really a starter level guy.  I think this need is more immediate and probably gets attacked through trade or free agency.  As always, the overriding question is whether they will commit longer term money in 20/21 or go after someone on an expiring deal to preserve room for a 2021 FA chase.

Since you mentioned him, where dose Derrick Jones rank on your chart?

[ItsGoTime]

I think if you keep THJ on the team that is plenty of points to go around on the starting unit, we need more defensive oriented, non-slouches-on-offense guys to finish out the starting 5. Guys like RoCo, OPJ, Shawn Marion being at the top of the heap prototypes. Jones Jr, might be a guy like that, I see him as a more defense then offense guy and worthy of playing time, but he might be best suited coming off the bench, which is what we have already in anyone after the top 3. I guess if you plug him and DFS in the starting 5 that gives you your defensive versatility that is greatly needed too.

I guess if we come away from the offseason with DJJ and 2 decent draft picks, it's not splashy in any way, but that should be the bare minimum IMO. Would really like to come away with 1 less PG (rather Wright than Brunson be the outgoing, but I think Wright could lead the second unit pretty well) and at least 1 high end, starting material defensive wing. If we get a defensive stopper wing, DFS can be your 5th starter IMO.

[omahen]

Great piece Dan. I wanted to do my own overview for a while. 

Luka has been absolutely great, not much to say here. System wise it is extremely important that he is surrounded by (at least passable as 2019/20 DFS and Kleber) shooters which maximizes his contribution. I think if we have a non shooter with Luka, he has to be a rim rolling guy. 

KP showed why he is worth the max in second half of the season. One thing I noticed was, that his play was affected a lot by confidence. He was excellent as alpha and often very bad as beta. After couple of excellent games with Luka he finished the season with two really bad ones (4-15 against San Antonio and 3-17 against Indiana). Let's hope he finds a way to have full confidence as a beta - I don't think Luka has any problem to take less shots if someone else is hot.

In the beginning of the season I said one of most crucial things for Mavs this season would be if THJ played according to his contract. And he did. There are not many players that are equally good or better at his wage level. Big question is, can this be sustainable. And from FO office perspective - should we sell high on him. Certainly I would only be moving him for a "kings ransom". Certainly, he gives us options - he is more than good enough for any contender and also young enough for some young developing teams looking to make a step forward. So while he is practically a perfect third man next to Luka and KP, there still might be a win-win package somewhere.

DFS had an excellent season and he certainly greatly outplayed his contract. However, we could use someone in the starting 5 who is either better defensively at DFS level of shooting or better offensive player at same level of defense.

Seth and Maxi are excellent role players, but each lack physical or technical skills to be a real contending starter. Luka-THJ-Curry is not a great defending backcourt and Maxi is not consistent enough to be a regular starter. However, both can be inserted in starting five when we need either offense or defense.

Brunson is definitely our second best PG. However, as Dan said, he is not great fit with Luka (Brunson would need to be a much better defender to be effective next to Luka) and a reserve pairing with Seth gives us a very small backcourt. Then Wright was added to this to make things even worse. However, he can be an excellent back up PG - I would certainly look for changes elsewhere if possible.

Powell is extremely valued by Mavs as a culture guy. However, his on court production might not be what we expect from a starter. He brings huge energy and is a top roll man, but is a non shooter which cloggs driving lanes for Luka. Still, his contract might be a bit of a burden moving forward, unless he gets back to at least preinjury level of production.

Lee, Barea and Bobi are ok vet min (or a bit over in case of Bobi) guys. Great guys, ready to give their best when called. I am fine if they fill end of bench and there is also nothing tragical if they leave (Lee), retire (Lee, Barea) or are traded (Bobi). WCS is a totally fine back up center but no worries if he rejects his option - plenty of centers will be available for vet min.

Wright was one of only two guys that gave less than it was expected. He had a couple of good games but not enough to really justify his salary and role imho. He was bad offensively and didn't prove himself as a PG, even when Luka was not on the floor. Defensively he is good, but certainly not at some Bev or Smart level, in which case we could forgive his offensive limitations. He might work better in a different system, but he is the one I would certainly look to move if I could bring positive value in (meaning - I wouldn't just try to get rid of his contract). 

Jackson is the second underperformer. I actually like the guy and I think he has some tools to make him at least a decent rotation player. Unfortunately, he had extremely bad season. His shooting totally left him. I think the problem might be in inconsistent minutes and more importaintly his role. He was "forced" to play PF, which he is certainly not capable to do. His weaknesses were exposed even more when Curry-Brunson and Wright were next to him and it was expected from his role to be the rebounder, lock down defender guy (which of course can't be). So, there still might be hope for him in a different situation somewhere else. However as a Mavs, I would definitely trade him, even for a second rounder. I doubt he can have a better season in the role he needs to play. 

Let me now move to our needs. I totally agree with Dan that we need two better starter types. One good defender who can also shoot on positions 1-3 and one good defender who can also shoot on positions 3-4. Secondary facilitator would also be nice. I can totally see the FO try to cover these holes with a pick and MLE while counting on internal development. Although to be honest - can we really expect Seth, Maxi and DFS to play even better as last season? They were really good. I am affraid one or more would actually regress a bit due to some injuries, worse shooting and similar. God forbid THJ returns to his pre Dallas production days. 

We can't really count for Wright and Jackson to really bring us anything great even if we add a pick or two to their contracts. Perhaps Wright for Snell type of trade - neither player is really great but the fit might be better for both sides.

I think this team also needs a veteran leader. Someone with better on court production (and minutes) that Barea and Lee were capable to give. A proven winner who would be respected by teammates. Remember how much guys like Gasol, Milsap or even Hill and Dragic are valuable for their teams. That's why I would really love a trade for Horford and Richardson, despite giving up THJ (plus Wright and JJ) in the process. Especially, if we could squeeze another asset for Horford contract (Philly #22 pick for example). Horford gives us a veteran winner and excellent PF defender, who can switch on smaller guys. I think his presence would go far beyond his stats. His contract is awful but he can still give a couple of decent seasons. Richardson replaces THJ - he is not as good shooter as THJ was last season, but he is excellent defender (not that THJ was bad, only Richardson is better) and he is also a better facilitator. This leaves us with MLE and rookie to try to find a good guard/wing shooter. Even if not, Curry might fit perfectly with Luka, Richardson, Horford and KP.

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Jones Jr, might be a guy like that, I see him as a more defense then offense guy and worthy of playing time, but he might be best suited coming off the bench

Totally agree. He can be starter, if he can get his shooting to DFS level. He is certainly excellent defender and better defender than DFS. 

What do you think about possibilities to snatch Caldwell Pope from Lakers. He had an excellent season. Full 4 year MLE might be something that he considers. And it would certainly hurt the Lakers

[ItsGoTime]

What do you think about possibilities to snatch Caldwell Pope from Lakers. He had an excellent season. Full 4 year MLE might be something that he considers. And it would certainly hurt the Lakers

First, I pretty much agree with everything you wrote above, good stuff. I'll answer this question above then give some extra thoughts to a few things said in your post.

I've been pretty high on KCP since his Det days and wanted him here every time he seemed or was available, so yes, I think he'd be pretty dang good here. I think the benefits to both him and us even if he stayed at this year's production would be great (although if he proved to be just another bench quality player, that is WAAAAY too many smaller guys for RC to tinker with). I see him as that Corey Brewer type, but with better potential to break out. I've been focused on a secondary ball handler to replace THJ (if we were to trade him) of the likes of Bogdanovic or Satoransky, but I think KCP would be a great addition to the team.

Now on to the rest of your post. Just a couple thoughts:

I keep thinking of a THJ regression and how much that would really hurt our progression as a team if it did happen. That is why I would welcome a sell high trade. Not that I fully want to trade him, but he is certainly available for the right price. I think Horford is a good target. I'd also like to see an OPJ/Satoransky trade for him and some ill-fitting pieces to get the 2 starters needed and "bring balance to the force" by putting starters in starting roles and bench players in bench roles (although we'd then need another starter with THJ outgoing, but DFS can still fill that role IMO with those two in the mix)

Really like your DFS thoughts a ton. I'm in total agreement.

On Wright, I think he was put in a difficult position when he was signed and seemingly told he was going to be a starter and help run the offense and then when that didn't work out for the first 3 games he was put in with the be-ready-boys crew. In that same crew there are 2 ball dominant players in JB and JJB as well as a capable ball handler in Curry. I really think he's a better for you than he is for us type trade piece, esp with that declining contract. That is unless the other team wants to pay a hefty price for JB, in which case, I think balance would ensue in his life as a very capable leader of the bench mob.

Also, great work on the OP Dan, sorry I hadn't said that earlier.

[aguiar95]

Here are some guys I've seen that thrive on those stats:

- Bertans (UFA) would be an great get. He's not starting for WAS, and I doubt they will throw more than 15M/y to him. If Bertans cares about winning and playing with his country mate KP, throw the 4y Full MLE at him. Even though we might need defense, imagine this high volume, high % shooter in our system with Doncic.

- Favors (UFA), even though is not a shooter and had injury problems last year, his numbers are very, VERY good.

- DJJ (UFA) and Boucher (UFA), while not shooting well the 3-ball, have excellent stats and should be obtainable. Boucher could be Powell 2.0, but with on-ball defense. Both at least try to shoot the 3-ball (28% on almost 2 attempts). I just feel we can draft someone of those guys with our 18th pick.

Since we probably don't have assets to trade for a major guy, we should just go with:

Doncic/THJ/DFS (I'm cooler with him being our 5th starter more than Maxi)/MLE/KP
Brunson/Curry/#18/Kleber/Powell
#31/Boban/minimun guys

Jackson and Wright are the guys that I agree should be traded (I would take back both 2nds we paid for Delon).

[Jommybone]

Like the thinking. But I’m not with you all on DFS and Maxi. 2 years ago they both sucked. If you assess their trajectories rather than current stats, it’s a much rosier picture. And I’m just waiting for the off-season (some off-season) when they hit the weight room hard enough to add some physical intimidation to their skill sets.

As long as THJ is willing and able to chase PGs on the defensive end, I think this starting unit has real potential. (I also think Mr. Brunson will adapt to playing with Luka and keep getting better.)

[ClutchDirk]

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/...ps?on=4432&on=2955&on=1486#tab-four_factors

[Reunion Mav Old]

This brings back memories of the Chairman of the Boards poster from the Tarpley, Donaldson, Perkins rebounding dominance days. Anyone else remember that poster?

[michaeltex]

Question...

Who compiles this data? Is there a stat nerd within the organization that reviews every possession for who was on court and who shot/scored/rebounded? Do some of the staff do it real time? 

Just wondering about the process.

[Mavericknyc1980]

DJJ and Bertrand would be great gets. Could we get both?

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DJJ and Bertans would be great gets. Can we get both this offseason?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thinking about Delon Wright this morning.  With Brunson out, Wright will have to take on a bigger role in the offense.  In fact, as one of only seven core guys left, I believe how Wright steps up (or doesn't) will be a huge swing factor in how well we do in the final 8 games and the playoffs.

I tried to find some data that would help me decide if I thought he had a chance at succeeding or not.  The first thing was to see if I was romanticizing Wright's past (remember those triple doubles in Memphis last year).  I have liked Wright for several years and have proposed trades to get him here in the past.  Turns out, his raw and advanced data here compare relatively well to his career.  He shot less here than in years past, but made more of his shots.  Anyone interested in a tall guard who hits .385 on 3's and gets 6.6 boards and 5.6 assists per 36.  BTW, his PER is 16 (4th among regulars) and his WS/48 is .148 (third among regulars).  His VORP is second on the team and the differential between his O-Rating of 121 and his D-Rating of 109...12 points...is tied with Maxi for second best on the team (behind Powell who always puts up a crazy differential).   

Why don't we like this guy?  Part of it lies in the fact that his lineups don't tend to work.  The team is six points per 100 better with Wright off the court.  If you look at his history, he's had really bad years and really good years at this metric.  The bad years tend to happen when he's pushed off the ball.  When he's classified with most of his time coming at the point, his lineups have tended to do well.  This may be a key to unlocking Wight in the "bubble".  He's going to have to handle the ball more given who we have left.  One other note on lineups, Wright paired with Maxi is awful.  But, go to Cleaning the Glass (thanks Clutch) and you will see that Wright lineups without Maxi are really good.

Looking at his game log this season, he's much better on the road than at home and much better in wins than losses.  I looked to see if I could find a pattern.  For instance, is he better in games with more minutes?  Mixed bag.  Some great games and some stinkers when he gets over 25 minutes.  What I discovered is Wright...and the team...tend to do better when Wright shoots the ball more.  Set the benchmark at 8 shots per game and you'll find that the team is 15/5 in the 20 games that meet this criteria.  Wins have come against Denver (2), LAL, HOU, TOR, Phil, OKC and Indy among playoff teams.  Losses have come against LAL (2, but one was the infamous OT game), Utah, HOU (without Luka) and ATL (without Luka, KP and JB).  

I think this is encouraging.  Once the playoffs get here, I suspect we will largely play 7 players any meaningful minutes with Luka, Curry and Wright getting all the guard minutes.  THJ will start and get his minutes at SF.  DFS, Maxi and KP will soak up the 4/5 minutes with DFS getting minutes at SF when Hardaway sits.  7 guys playing 35 minutes each basically.  It won't work that way exactly as some PG, Boban and Jackson will play some.  But Wright is going to see about a 50% jump in minutes.  It will likely be the biggest jump in role and minutes of anyone.  How well he does with those minutes will go a long way in determining our playoff fate.