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A Few Thoughts on Mavs 109, Spurs 119
#1
Mavs Collapse Again

Aargh. I'm having trouble coming up with an upbeat angle for this one. The Mavericks surrendered a 13-point lead in the third quarter to end the game with a 10-point deficit in San Antonio. Such a bummer. 


Game Story

The Mavericks were really banged up entering this one, with Curry (ankle), WCS (illness), MKG (illness) on the injured list, along with Brunson and Powell. Luka played with both hands braced, due to a sprained left thumb and a sprained right wrist. DFS was listed as questionable, but suited up. No word on KP's ankle. Poetl and Murray were out for the Spurs. The starting lineup consisted of Luka/THJ/DFS/KP/Lee. 

Dallas had a small lead at the end of the first two quarters (29-27, 59-54). At 9:51 in the third period, they had built a 13-point advantage. A combination of Mavs turnovers and Spurs threes got San Antonio back in the game. The visitors amassed a 9-point lead at 3:07, when the Spurs went on a 12-5 run to leave our boys with an 85-83 edge going into the fourth. 

The fourth started with an unusual lineup of Luka/Wright/THJ/Maxi/Boban. Rick put the starters back in at 8:40, with the Mavs down by 8. At 4:07, our men were within 3. Then the wheels came off. 

The remaining possessions included a missed KP 31' three, a missed Luka 30' three, a missed Luka 27' three, KP loose ball foul, KP bad pass turnover, two intentional fouls (resulting in 4 Spurs points), and a KP kicked ball. The Spurs went on a 12-5 run, and the game was mercifully over. 


Analytics

The Mavs put up 12 more 3PTAs than the Spurs, but shot 39% from long range, compared to their opponent's 47%. At the end of the day, the Mavs were +6 on points from threes, -4 on made free throws, and -12 on points from twos. The refs didn't call many fouls, and the two teams combined for only 26 free throw attempts. Dallas gave up 24 points off turnovers, and surrendered 20 fast break points. They also allowed 10 blocks against them, and had only 23 assisted baskets (55%), while the Spurs had 32 (70%). Neither side had many PIP (Mavs 38, Spurs 34), with the Mavs relying heavily on threes, and the home team feasting on midrange shots. 


Players

Porzingis (38 min) had his second terrible game in a row. He scored 9 points, going 4-15 from the field, and 1-8 from three. Ai-yi-yi. He had 12 boards and a couple of blocks, but seemed to be in a low-energy mode throughout the game. Probably the nadir was a play where, in order to avoid a turnover, he threw the ball off a Spurs player. As the ball rolled toward the basket, KP made a lackadaisical effort to run it down, and a Spurs player stole it out from under him. It is possible that his ankle is bothering him. He has also played very long minutes in consecutive games, and maybe there was a fatigue factor involved. What is apparent is that this team cannot survive such poor nights from KP, certainly not without more help from the other players. I don't know what to tell you. He had been playing so well. 

DFS (38 min) was a welcome sight on the court, returning from his hip flexor injury. He continued his trend of making an offensive contribution, with 15 points, including 3 triples. He made an effort to guard the perimeter, but that's just not a one-man job. 

Hardaway (37 min) had another great game, albeit in another loss. He put up 20 points, including 4 threes, and had 7 boards and a couple of steals. He missed both free throws in a fourth quarter trip to the line, but that didn't turn out to make much of a difference. He led the team in +/-, at 0. Yikes. At any rate, a bright spot in the game. 

Luka (36 min) stuffed the stat sheet, earning 38 points, including 6 treys, and adding 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and two steals to his line. I thought it was a positive development that the team got him some catch-and-shoot attempts, and would like to see a little more of that. The local podcasters have been analyzing team statistics in clutch situations. They're pretty horrendous. Luka has a terrible three-point percentage in the clutch (18%). He and KP are in the habit of taking these very long threes that usually don't go in. It's exciting when they do, but maybe they could work out some higher-percentage attempts for the two stars. 

Maxi (31 min) had 12 points and 5 boards, but I thought he faded as the game went on. He had only 4 points in the second half, and seemed to struggle to have an impact defensively in the last 24. He anchored the team in +/-, at -16. Carlisle has said before that he likes to keep Maxi's minutes under 20, and he has been exceeding 30 for a while now, with all the injuries. I wonder if he might be getting worn down. 

Lee (22 min) had two steals and a block, and made both of his free throws after drawing a clear path foul in the fourth. However, he took only one shot the entire game. I am wondering if he is intended to be out there only for defensive purposes, as he rarely gets many shots or touches. If so, that may be somewhat of a waste of a two-way player, but maybe he's only a temporary fill-in and they don't feel a need to fit him into the offense. Who knows?

Wright (19 min) was 7-4-4 off the bench, and did a decent job in his reserve role. Jackson (10 min) was 2-2-2 in short minutes. Boban (9 min) had a few minutes at the end of the first, beginning of the second, and beginning of the fourth. He was 2-6 from the floor, and had 4 points, 1 rebound, and 2 fouls. Carlisle took him out after a couple of minutes in the fourth quarter, after he was stripped a couple of times by LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge arguably should have been called for fouls on those plays, but Bobi didn't get those calls. 

Spurs. San Antonio had 7 guys in double figures. Several of them did a number on us. The Mavs' defensive scheme tends to concentrate on the paint and the three-point line, giving up midrange shots if necessary. The Spurs took appropriate advantage. 


Remarks

The MMB After Dark podcast observed that the Mavs looked like a shorthanded, tired, frustrated, injured team. I would agree with that point of view. The podcasters noted the mistakes, sloppiness, and lack of effort in a rivalry game, but thought Dallas would have won if KP had had a decent outing. Locked on Mavericks had a take that the Mavs should sit Luka and KP on the second night of the back-to-back, or longer, if that is what it takes. They're pretty well locked into the 7th seed, and the thought was that it might give them a needed rest without costing anything in the way of standings slippage. 

One has to acknowledge the numerous injuries in assigning reasons for this disappointing loss. The team especially misses Seth, who is a more important player than some would think. In addition to their customary crumbling in the last minutes, I thought they appeared to just run out of gas in the second half. They had had a day without a game, but the extra-long minutes they have had to play for a good while now may be taking their toll. Whatever is ailing Porzee, they need to figure it out pronto. 

Well, as those great philosophers Orphan Annie and Scarlett O'Hara said, there's always tomorrow. 


Next. The Mavs face Denver on the SEGABABA. Might be a tough one. 

Hang in there, MFFLs.
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#2
(03-11-2020, 03:05 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: Mavs Collapse Again

Aargh. I'm having trouble coming up with an upbeat angle for this one. The Mavericks surrendered a 13-point lead in the third quarter to end the game with a 10-point deficit in San Antonio. Such a bummer. 


One has to acknowledge the numerous injuries in assigning reasons for this disappointing loss. The team especially misses Seth, who is a more important player than some would think.  

As always, great stuff.  I'd argue this team hasn't been the same since Brunson went down.  Curry was absolutely on fire, but for the season the team is a -4 when he's in the game versus a +2.9 for Brunson.  That's actually kind of amazing when  you consider most of those minutes happen while Luka is sitting.

JB isn't as flashy on O, but the team plays much better D when he's on the floor compared to when Curry is on the floor.  It is a 5.5 pp100 difference on D, but only a 1 pp100 difference on O.
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#3
Mavs have trouble closing and could be a quick out in the playoffs but I still like this team headed into the summer. 

Our top 8 guys that are unlikely to go anywhere:
Luka, KP, DFS, THJ, Maxi, Curry, Brunson, Powell

This core team is going to get better playing with each other and Luka/KP our young stars will improve as well. Injuries have been a problem lately, hopefully we can get healthy for the playoffs to at least give the Mavs a fighting chance.

I agree that Brunson being out has hurt this team. He is a good 4th quarter player altho has also struggled at times being a young player. Mavs will have more frustrating losses like this but hopefully can keep the wheels on for the playoffs. 

Mavs need to upgrade Wright, Jackson for better players. All of the bench outside of our top 8 guys are disposable this summer.
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#4
Luka throwing the ball away in the last 2 minutes was the nail in the coffin. Mavs played uninspired for about 18 minutes of play beginning in the middle of the 3rd when they got up by 13.

To be as bad as we are in the clutch and still have a winning record like we do is incredible. It shows the potential of this team but also points out just how young we are. 

Luka can drop 38 points, but still make game losing mistakes. I hope Luka gets it together come playoff time and turns into the wonderboy like he did in the Euroloeague playoffs. 

Also KP with another stinker. It was bound to happen. I'm not worried about that. What I am worried about is that we can't get Luka and KP to go off consistently. We saw their potential against NOP last week. If we get that every game there are few, if any, teams that can stop them.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#5
(03-11-2020, 10:57 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Our top 8 guys that are unlikely to go anywhere:
Luka, KP, DFS, THJ, Maxi, Curry, Brunson, Powell
I don't mind keeping these guys, but who we get needs to supplant them, not play behind them. I think it will probably take at least a couple of those guys to get who we need, which means we need to find replacements for who we use as well.
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#6
(03-11-2020, 11:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I don't mind keeping these guys, but who we get needs to supplant them, not play behind them. I think it will probably take at least a couple of those guys to get who we need, which means we need to find replacements for who we use as well.


Out of all those guys, Powell should be number 1 on the list to be replaced. We've seen how KP looks when he plays the position of Powell. KP works and flourishes in that role. Furthermore with his achilies injury, we just don't know if Powell will ever be the same. His entire game is based around his athleticism. The only issue is I don't even know how the Mavs try to get off of Powell's money. To me Powell's contract is a dead 10 mill a year and that's tough.

2nd guy to replace would be DFS. If we can't move KP from his spot, that means we need to find a wing that can score consistently every single night at least 6-8 points and defend well. It shouldn't be that hard, and I thought DFS is that, but given his history of falling off hard midway through the season, and how he is currently falling off hard. His 3pt% has plummeted from 37% to 31.8%. Mavs are 20-9 (might not be up to date on that stat) when DFS scores 10+. It goes to show how just having ONE more guy in the starting lineup who can score would help this team.

3rd guy who I'd look to replace is THJ. I know... THJ right now is doing everything right. He looks to be a bonafide 3rd option on a contender, which is saying something. But his biggest weakness has and always will be his decision making. THJ can get hotter than almost anyone in the league, but the dude can also just bury his head down and force shots over and over again. Sometimes these go in, sometimes they don't. But what happens is that the offense becomes so stagnated where if THJ touches the ball, he'll shoot it, regardless of whether or not it's a good shot. This is further amplified if KP or Luka is having an off night. THJ's value has never been higher. Trying to flip him for a higher tier player this offseason should be looked at. 

Only locks to me on this team should be Luka, KP, Maxi, and Seth.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#7
(03-11-2020, 12:10 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: We've seen how KP looks when he plays the position of Powell.


Didn't really follow them than, but KP was worse then 3-17 and 4-15 in those games? Wow, he really sucked Smile Blaiming Powell for KP inability to score is a bit far fetched imho.


(03-11-2020, 12:10 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: wing that can score consistently every single night at least 6-8 points and defend well


Why are you looking for a worse player? DFS average this season is 9,3 PPG.


(03-11-2020, 12:10 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Maxi


I don't really get this Maxi worshipping. He is a nice player, can defend some, had some good offensive games. However, he is extremely limited offensively, mainly scoring by shooting decent percentage from wide open threes - unfortunately there are not many of these shots to go around. His production is not really improving when given the starter role, so I don't really see him as more as a bench guy. Decent contract for a bench guy but far from untouchable imho, if a better player would be discussed.
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#8
Biggest weakness remains perimeter defense. Spurs penetrated at will and moved the ball really well. Mavs were in scramble mode all game long and San Antonio patiently waited for the breakdown. Missed rotation, overplayed help defense. Drive, kickout, one more swing pass, open jump shot And it wasn´t even about Aldridge and DeRozan. Both had mediocre or even bad games on offense. Mavs never figured out a way to stop it.
It´s not like the Mavs offense was bad. Wasn´t great but still above league average. 109pts / 56.3% TS, 14 tov.
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#9
(03-11-2020, 11:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote:
(03-11-2020, 10:57 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Our top 8 guys that are unlikely to go anywhere:
Luka, KP, DFS, THJ, Maxi, Curry, Brunson, Powell
I don't mind keeping these guys, but who we get needs to supplant them, not play behind them. I think it will probably take at least a couple of those guys to get who we need, which means we need to find replacements for who we use as well.

So I get what you are saying but I still think it's unlikely any of these 8 guys get moved. That being said there is plenty of room for improvement on the roster. It's possible Mavs could add 1-2 impact players that break into the top 8 rotation. For example I don't think we have settled on the 5th starter just yet. We know Powell won't be it. I could see some kind of move that brings in that athletic, defensive wing we've been hoping for (we will see).
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#10
Re: "3rd guy who I'd look to replace is THJ. I know... THJ right now is doing everything right. He looks to be a bonafide 3rd option on a contender, which is saying something. But his biggest weakness has and always will be his decision making. THJ can get hotter than almost anyone in the league, but the dude can also just bury his head down and force shots over and over again. Sometimes these go in, sometimes they don't. But what happens is that the offense becomes so stagnated where if THJ touches the ball, he'll shoot it, regardless of whether or not it's a good shot. This is further amplified if KP or Luka is having an off night. THJ's value has never been higher. Trying to flip him for a higher tier player this offseason should be looked at. "

I like THJ as our 3rd guy offensively. I don't disagree if you could upgrade him for someone else you should pull the trigger though. I like his shooting, intensity, defense has been solid and he can get off his own shot which is important. You need someone who can be aggressive because sometimes the offense breaks down and you just need a guy to get off a shot.

I really like this team over all I think we will look so much better with a true wing defender-type like Jerami Grant in there. Mavs already have two stars which is the foundation + many solid complimentary parts. I don't think we *have* to get another star to get to the next level. Get a guy who is a clutch defender in the mix and this could be a contender along with the natural growth from the other guys.

Remember the Mavs have changed their roster over a million times since 2011. How many consecutive years did the Mavs bring back the same guys? I have a hard time remembering, maybe the 2 years Dirk/Ellis played together they had some semblance of continuity? I like the idea of Rick going into next season with largely the same core players (with a couple of exceptions perhaps) and really building on the success from this season.
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#11
We have a bright future, but we just aren't there yet. We will most likely go out in 5 or 6 games in round 1. It is what it is. Our roster has some glaring holes, but the most important players are in position already so that's the hardest part. Let's enjoy seeing the Mavs back in the playoffs and hopefully it will be a good learning lesson for the players and for the front office about what the team really needs. Other than early in the season, this team has pretty much been a 7 seed playing wise all season. There's no reason to be mad at that. Hardly anyone picked us for the playoffs.
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#12
If Mavs made it to 6 games is be thrilled. We should hope to avoid a sweep. The biggest thing right now is Heath. I wish we'd sit Doncic until his hands/wrists whatever get healed and maybe rest all our core players the last couple of games before the playoffs once we have clinched a playoff spot. Our best bet against any opponent is to be at full strength. You never know what could happen. What if Mavs play either LA team and one of their stats gets hurt? Could definitely happen. Mavs gotta get healthy.
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#13
(03-11-2020, 12:36 PM)omahen Wrote: Didn't really follow them than, but KP was worse then 3-17 and 4-15 in those games? Wow, he really sucked Smile Blaiming Powell for KP inability to score is a bit far fetched imho.


I don't understand what you're saying. I'm not blaming Powell for KP's 2  bad games, but its without question that KP has performed significantly better playing the 5, which is Powell's position. Powell has nothing to do with anything regarding KP other than unfortunately playing the position where KP is exceeding so far, and because of that, coupled with his achillies injury, makes him the number 1 candidate to be moved for me.


(03-11-2020, 12:36 PM)omahen Wrote: Why are you looking for a worse player? DFS average this season is 9,3 PPG.


Because while DFS is averaging 9.3 ppg, that doesn't tell you anything about how consistently DFS actually scores in a game. DFS could have scored 595 points in game 1 of the season (which would've been quite the sight), and not have scored a single point in the other 63 games the rest of the year till now and his average would be 9.3ppg. Does that mean DFS gives you around 9 points a night? No obviously not. Mean is very susceptible for skews. 

Here are the box scores DFS has put up since the all star break. 5,5 6,8,14,3,9,18,2,15 
He's averaged 8.5ppg during that time but you can see how wildly inconsistent it is. His splits are 51/32/71 as well. So his 3pt% has drastically fallen, which is historically expected from him on top of his inconsistent scoring. I love DFS and think he's a valued player, but he isn't untouchable and the Mavs should try to find someone who can replicate his above average defense with more consistent offense.


(03-11-2020, 12:36 PM)omahen Wrote: I don't really get this Maxi worshipping. He is a nice player, can defend some, had some good offensive games. However, he is extremely limited offensively, mainly scoring by shooting decent percentage from wide open threes - unfortunately there are not many of these shots to go around. His production is not really improving when given the starter role, so I don't really see him as more as a bench guy. Decent contract for a bench guy but far from untouchable imho, if a better player would be discussed.


I believe Maxi is our 4th, arguably 3rd, most important player. The defense he brings every night is a game changer. Maxi is one of the best defenders in the league and he has an above average shot with his size. It's a rare combo, and when combined with someone like KP, makes lineups with the both of them incredibly difficult to guard. He fits perfectly on any team, and any team would want him on this contract. Now if a hypothetical trade for a superstar came about and we'd need to throw Maxi in there, would I be against it? No. But we know how rare superstars are traded. And anything short of a superstar I wouldn't want to move Maxi at all. So he's as good as untouchable in my eyes. 

And it's not worshiping pointing out how valuable Maxi has been to this team. It's a fact. Our defense would be worlds different without him, and we already have a tough time defending.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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