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A Few Thoughts on Mavs 118, Heat 126
#1
Mavs Spanked in Miami

The Mavericks surrendered another lead in a winnable match where they played well in some respects. If enough things go wrong at the same time, it becomes a perfect storm, and that's more or less how the game was lost. 


Game Story

Dallas came into the game thin on healthy personnel. In addition to Powell's season-ending injury, Brunson was still nursing his shoulder. WCS continued to miss out for personal reasons. Luka came in with his wrist/thumb taped, and was clearly hampered by the injury, favoring the sore hand and looking uncomfortable all night. Seth was in the starting lineup again. Is this the season's starting unit now, or does Seth alternate with Maxi, depending on lineups? 

At any rate, the Mavs were tied 31-all after the first quarter, thanks in part to seven made threes and a hot start from Tim. The Heat went on a 10-0 run in the second, and our boys were not able to recover, going into halftime with a 55-63 deficit. Luka and KP had mediocre first halves by their standards, combining to go 4-16 for 16 total points. 

The Mavericks ultimately got it together in the third quarter, and after falling down by as much as 12 during the period, surprised with a dramatic 19-5 run in the last 3:36 that left them with a 93-88 advantage when the buzzer sounded. Luka, KP, and Seth all played the entire frame, and they combined for 33 of the team's 38 points. Back on track, eh?

Alas, the best laid plans of mice and men go aft agley -- sometimes in three minutes or so. A unit of Barea/Wright/Tim/DFS/Maxi was battered with a 0-13 Heat run in the first 3:16 of the fourth. Against a Heat bench lineup of Dragic/Iggy/Crowder/Robinson/Olynyk. Aargh. Perhaps it would be worth detailing this series of possessions. Scoring plays are bolded. 

-- Tim personal foul. Followed by Tim shooting foul. Dragic hits both free throws
-- Tim missed layup. Offensive rebound. Wright missed three. 
-- Barea kicked ball. Wright personal foul. (Third Mavs foul in less than a minute). Robinson three
-- DFS missed three. 
-- Olynyk missed hook shot. Offensive rebound. Olynyk three
-- Barea missed bank shot. 
-- Crowder three
-- Hardaway missed three. 
-- Olynyk offensive foul. 
-- Iggy personal foul. Barea missed fadeaway.
-- Iggy dunk

Make of it what you will. From +5 to -8 in 3:16. Life comes at you fast. 

Carlisle put KP, Luka and Seth back in at the 8:44 mark, and the starters (plus Maxi, who came in after Doe Doe was called for his fifth foul) played the Heat to a draw in the remaining minutes, and never came closer than a six-point deficit. 

For the period, the Mavericks missed 14 shots, gave up 15 free throw attempts, had a 6-11 deficit in rebounding, and had an 0-7 disadvantage in second-chance points. Meanwhile, the Heat were 10-17 from the field, 5-9 from deep, and 13-15 from the line. Yikes. 


Analytics

You know it's an unlucky night when you hit 21 threes and still lose. One factor would be a 19-36 differential in FTAs. As far as where the teams' relative scoring came from, the Mavs were +12 on points from threes (on 50 attempts), -10 on made free throws, and -10 on points from twos. Dallas was also on the wrong end of a 5-12 difference in second chance points, and a 5-13 difference in fast-break points. The Mavericks' shooting percentages were 48/42/89, while Miami racked up 52/49/75.

Despite a somewhat ignominious loss, some of the Mavs actually had a noteworthy game. 


Players

KP (39 min) ended up with a healthy line, showing 24 points and 13 boards. But that doesn't really tell the whole story. He had a difficult first half, with Bam pretty much staying in his face/head. I think he adjusted in the second half, and made an excellent showing in the third quarter. Kudos to him/the coaching staff for finding an approach that worked. He was a less-than-efficient 9-21 from the field, although he did hit six threes. The Heat got too many easy baskets at the rim, even with Porzingis on the court. Let's look on the bright side, and assume the second half represents the "real" Unicorn. 

Luka (38 minutes) looked fine in the box score (23-4-10), but didn't have one of his better games. He was 7-17 from the floor, and 0-6 from deep, although he did go 9-9 from the line. The scoresheet reflected 6 turnovers, but he would have had several more if it hadn't been for his teammates scrambling to recover lost or almost-lost balls, and making wild leaps to prevent errant passes from sailing astray. He seemed ill-at-ease and frustrated for much of the game, drawing a tech at one point for taunting the ref. I am tempted to point my finger at Luka's hand as the villain of this piece. It appeared to substantially affect his shooting, passing, and dribbling. He had it retaped at halftime, to little avail. He was listed as questionable before the game, but Rick said he wanted to play. 

Luka celebrated his 21st birthday, and the team reportedly partied after the match at a local nightclub. Dirk flew in for the event, and hopefully a good time was had by all. You're in pretty rarefied air when you are 21 years old, register 23 points and 10 assists, and are judged to have had a ho-hum game. Coach noted that he didn't get some calls that arguably could have gone his way, and complimented him for continuing to attack. 

Tim (37 min) dependably contributed 15 points. 

Seth (36 min) put on a dazzling display of offensive firepower, and I think we need to celebrate it, even though it was sadly wasted in a loss. He had a career-high 37 points, going 13-15 from the floor and 8-9 from three. Are you kidding me?! The TV crew informed us that he has the second-highest career three-point percentage (.44) of any player in NBA history. He was bombing away with pinpoint accuracy, demoralizing his defenders, and striking Peja-like terror from the arc. He was coming off screens, stepping back, attacking the basket, disregarding hands in his face, passing out of double teams, creating shots, doing a decent defensive job, everything. What a weapon! Rick called his performance "phenomenal." If not for him, this would have been an embarrassing blowout. You did us proud, little Curry!

Bench. Sigh. The depleted reserves totaled 16 points on the night. This unit has been decimated. Seth moved to the starting unit. Brunson and WCS out. That left Maxi (29 min), Wright (17 min), Barea (12 min), and MKG and Boban for brief appearances. Feels like Rick may have some more tinkering to do. The continuing injuries are like a game of whack-a-mole. One guy comes back, and another goes out. I'm scratching my head over whether there is a high-impact fix for this group. 

Heat. Jimmy Butler was a little much for the likes of the Mavs defenders, and he put 26 points up and earned 12 FTAs. Duncan Robinson absolutely torched Dallas with 24 points on 8-11 shooting, including 6 threes. Bam Adebayo took on KP, and recorded 14 points and 11 boards. What a name. Bam. Sounds peppy! This is a very good Miami team. I don't know if they are better than the Mavs on the whole, but they were the better team on the night. 


Remarks

Rick was disappointed with the performance, while admitting that the team did some good things. He thought they didn't establish much traction on either end of the court, and fell short in some fundamental areas like fouling too much, giving up too many threes, and failing to rebound adequately. The Heat made extensive use of the zone defense, and Rick felt the team responded too passively, acknowledging that he should have had them better prepared. Considering how well the Mavs shoot threes, you would think they wouldn't see a lot in the way of zone defenses, and maybe they just need a little more familiarity. 

The third quarter run is an illustration of the Mavs' ability to score on opponents very quickly. That is a positive. The defensive end was a huge problem in this contest, from all areas of the court, and that is a tougher nut to crack. I don't think the roster "as is" will turn into any kind of defensive juggernaut this season, but I know they can do better than this.


A relatively more fixable issue might relate to game management, combined with sharpening up their attack on zone defenses. Miami forced Dallas into a lot of long possessions, with late-clock shot attempts. As time grew short, the Mavericks really needed to pick up the tempo, and they somehow failed to do that, either at all, or effectively. A lot of that had to do with the Heat, but the Mavs were also dribbling the air out of the ball, making a lot of extra passes, and taking their time, when the point had come to go for quick scores in order to survive. That is probably also a coaching thing, and something I think they can become more attentive to. 

This was an entertaining spectacle, and watching Seth's amazing night was a thrill. It was disappointing in the sense that it felt like they let another one slip away. One does have to give credit to the Heat, though. They made it tough on their home floor, and they should be a formidable opponent in the East. The Mavs felt like a work in progress, which after all, is as it should be. Miami was a worthy foe, and hopefully our team will have gotten some valuable experience out of the effort. 


Next. The Mavs face Minnesota in a Sunday matinee. 
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#2
No answer for Point Olynyk.  He just stood at the top of the key and picked us apart at times...especially in the early 4th.  Nine assists in under 19 minutes.

That team can really clamp down when they want.  Dragic and Herro are probably their only truly bad defenders, but they can platoon them largely and mix in some combo of Bam, Butler, Crowder, Jones and Iggy and be pretty good.  That zone they ran in the fourth was frightening.

Dragic and Crowder played starter minutes.  In fact, had Herro cut into some of Robinson's minutes, they would have had more minutes than anyone other than Butler.  Without Leonard, Miami platooned Bam and Olynyk and surrounded their single big with wings.  Derrick Jones Jr. and Crowder are considered their PF's.  At the most they are Power Wings, but probably more wing than power.  Both, along with Dragic and Leonard are free this summer.
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#3
(02-29-2020, 04:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: Derrick Jones Jr.


He played some excellent defense yesterday. Unfortunately, he is pretty much MKG on offense.

(02-29-2020, 03:19 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: doing a decent defensive job

Sorry, but Seth was by far the worst defensive liability among starters.
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#4
(02-29-2020, 04:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: That team can really clamp down when they want.


Yep. If they get their chemistry together they can make a run at the Bucks in a playoff series.
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#5
(02-29-2020, 03:19 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: -- Tim personal foul. Followed by Tim shooting foul. Dragic hits both free throws
-- Tim missed layup. Offensive rebound. Wright missed three. 
-- Barea kicked ball. Wright personal foul. (Third Mavs foul in less than a minute). Robinson three
-- DFS missed three. 
-- Olynyk missed hook shot. Offensive rebound. Olynyk three
-- Barea missed bank shot. 
-- Crowder three
-- Hardaway missed three. 
-- Olynyk offensive foul. 
-- Iggy personal foul. Barea missed fadeaway.
-- Iggy dunk

Make of it what you will. From +5 to -8 in 3:16. Life comes at you fast. 
[Image: giphy.gif]
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#6
(02-29-2020, 07:44 AM)Kammrath Wrote:
(02-29-2020, 04:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: That team can really clamp down when they want.


Yep. If they get their chemistry together they can make a run at the Bucks in a playoff series.

Celts and Mia are legit threats to come out of the East.   Both teams at full strength are very entertaining to watch. 

Watching the top teams the Mavs even at full strength have a size and athleticism issue. This roster is good but we need a couple of extremely athletic guys in the starting lineup and one off the bench.  I am not even asking for a 3rd Star.
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#7
We don´t need much, but we need to add quality over quantity, and making quantity i.e. (high-end) roleplayers out of perceived bums has always been more of the Mavs strength.
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#8
JJB just can’t be in the rotation.  It’s like he’s not even on the floor when the Mavs are on defense.  Lee is the better option.  Size matters.  Especially when you’re also old and slow.
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#9
Post-game notes from MMB After Dark

Kirk Henderson, normally something of a ranter after frustrating losses, sounded more resigned than angry in the post-game pod --


The team played terrible defense throughout. With all the injury concerns, the lack of depth is catching up with them at this point in the season. 

The Mavs were able to score in the first quarter, but gave up all kinds of points in the paint. Their run in the third was enabled by the Heat bench coming in and moving away from their zone defense. A Dallas bench unit's surrender of all of the third-quarter gains in three minutes was inexcusable. 

It is puzzling to consider what Rick's options are to "fix" what ails this group. Defense was always going to be their Achilles heel. They had no great 1 v 1 defenders out there -- Maxi is probably the best they have on offer. Wright is a sneaky offball defender but was roasted man to man. DFS was in over his head.


Carlisle played the starters long minutes, and there is not much further to stretch that avenue. There were only so many effective warm bodies available on the night. There doesn't seem to be much of a solution, other than trying to score even more. In that regard, the offense during the bench debacle was a reversion to the old days. Barea doing nothing but dribbling, driving the lane, shooting, or passing to a roller. Brunson wasn't available, but when he is, he is at least willing to run an offense, rather than trying to be a mini-Luka and do it all.  Without the ability to stop anyone, the Mavs have to mix it up.

Another ho-hum performance against a better team. Some of the problems were inexcusable from a coaching perspective, although Rick had limited options against a very good Miami defense and was undoubtedly just as dismayed as we were. 
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#10
To me this loss indicates that there can´t be minutes with both KP and Luka on the floor. They got dismantled in both halves, when both sat. Also Luka has to do a better job dealing with good defense. He struggled mightily against DJJr and Crowder.
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#11
(02-29-2020, 07:44 AM)Kammrath Wrote:
(02-29-2020, 04:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: That team can really clamp down when they want.


Yep. If they get their chemistry together they can make a run at the Bucks in a playoff series.


Well..we get a preview on Monday. Bucks at Heat.
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#12
Honestly I think Luka's hand was what lost us the game. It seemed like the entire time he could never get comfortable and was in constant pain, which affected how he moved on offense. Despite that, him with Curry/KP/Kleber was a lethal lineup that seemed like the only thing that worked tonight.

It's only fitting that another Luka injury happened on a play that wasn't called a foul. Luka gets hit more than any other star player in the league. 

Curry was a monster. Without him we would've gotten blown out. Speaking of monsters, this dude Duncan Robinson is the real deal. He is one of the only players for me that reminds me of Steph Curry from range. Just can pull up from anywhere, anytime, and it has a good chance of going in. 

The bench let us down again, and we're really feeling the lack of depth. I feel like DFS has disappeared on the offensive side of the court recently. He hasn't been making shots and he hasn't been getting many opportunities. MKG put up another foreboding performance on the offensive side of the court in his limited minutes. He had 2 great defensive possessions followed with a puzzling travel and a whole bunch of nothing on the other side of the court.  

On the flip side Iggy, a player that the Mavs were rumored to get that would've filled MKG's role, put up 4 points on 2/4 FG's, 3 rebounds, with some great defense and was +13 on the court. Ouch.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#13
(02-29-2020, 12:50 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: no great 1 v 1 defenders out there -- Maxi is probably the best they have on offer. Wright is a sneaky offball defender but was roasted man to man. DFS was in over his head.


This is spot on. This is why MKG making his way into the lineup is essential IMO. DFS is vastly overrated as a defender (though has brilliant moments and you have to love him as a player). The Mavs need MKG to take DFS's role OR they need to find someone else who can. By no means does that mean DFS has no place (he does) but he is way over his head with the responsibilities he is given defensively. 

DFS's on/off defensive rating is -3.5 this year but he is given HARD matchups.....his RAPTOR defensive rating is -0.1 this year, meaning he is just an average defender (I think this is pretty accurate of an evaluation). 

Here are the defensive RAPTOR ratings for most of the team:

MKG: +2.1
Delon: -0.1
Maxi: +1.8
KP: +1.7
Luka: -0.9
Jalen: +0.8
THJ: +0.6
Seth: -2.2
Justin: -3.2
WCS: +4.8
Boban: -2.0
JJB: +0.3

As you can see this is a very solid rating system that passes the sniff-test really well in most cases.
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#14
As far as yesterday goes, we have to admit Miami just had a really hot shooting night. They were hitting shots from all over the floor. Also, despite not a stellar Luka night, starters were just fine. They might not be a great defensive unit, but they are one of the best offensive ones. Three starters had a positive +-, while THJ and DFS had a negative one mostly because they were part of that miserable 4th quarter unit. The problems occured when bench guys were on the floor without Luka and KP. Biggest dissapointment was their bad defense, especially Wright, who was just killed by Dragic. Barea was also really bad playmaker in this stretch, but Mavs basically don't have any other option with Brunson out.

I am not really sure throwing MKG in the starting unit instead of Curry would solve problems of the bench. Afterall, THJ was playing in that unit. Sure, I would give it a go. Perhaps Brunson and WCS will bring enough on the table for the bench.

While DFS might not be best option, we have to be aware that an upgrade will be very difficult to get. On most nights he is giving his best on defense while being solid on offense.
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#15
Absolutely agree on the DFS is overrated on defense part. He is an elite rebounder and great shot-blocker, but he lacks strength to keep forwards and quickness to keep guards in front of him. That narrative has to change. He can´t guard the best players. DeRozan ate him alive in the last game against SAS
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#16
(02-29-2020, 02:40 PM)Thukydides Wrote: DeRozan ate him alive in the last game against SAS


I think you are being unfair. DeRozan scored 27, which is just 5 points over his average and Curry was switched on him often. Still, he had a negative +- as whole starting unit. It was SAS bench that kept them in the game.
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#17
(02-29-2020, 11:10 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: JJB just can’t be in the rotation.  It’s like he’s not even on the floor when the Mavs are on defense.  Lee is the better option.  Size matters.  Especially when you’re also old and slow.
You think Courtney Lee would make them younger and speedier?
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#18
I guess my reaction is...... while I was disappointed that we lost after that great comeback, I wasn't as disappointed as I was after the ATL loss. Back before the AS break I looked at the next 10-game segment I thought we should go 7-3. This MIA game was one that I suspected we would lose (but. certainly, the ATL game was not!) So....expectations!

I agree with most of the posts/comments.... (1) MIA is really good on defense....our guys had a hand in their face (or a tug on their elbow) all night. (2) our Bench is really decimated. (3) Luka's hand is hurt, and that throws him out of kilter, which in turn hinders the meshing of our offense. (4) Damn! Curry is hot....must get that lad more OPEN shots.
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#19
(02-29-2020, 03:43 PM)duboh7 Wrote: (3) Luka's hand is hurt, and that throws him out of kilter, which in turn hinders the meshing of our offense.   

https://theathletic.com/1639718/2020/02/28/how-finished-product-luka-doncic-has-improved-more-than-any-2018-draftee/


Really good article from Hollinger on the ways Luka has improved since being drafted.  Development of his left hand is arguably the most impactful of several factors.  Here is the text from that section.  Several videos are included in this section of the story that I didn't link plus there are four of five other improvement factors he goes through.




[b]LEFT HAND[/b]
OK, now we get to the biggest part. Toggling back and forth between Luka games from 2018 and his games this season, the one improvement that jumps out is his left hand. In Europe, he didn’t really have one. Oh sure, he dribbled with the left at times, but nearly all of his pick-and-roll effectiveness came with the ball on his right hand. Going left he was a one-trick pony, and the trick was going backward — a step-back jumper for a 3. He was often awkward getting into it, and there was no legitimate drive threat to move a defender away first.
For instance, here’s a clip from the Euroleague Final 4 against CSKA; watch how he has a clear driving lane with his left hand but chooses not to exploit it, and forces a floater with the right instead. (Also, referring back to athleticism above, notice what a piddly leap he musters into the floater).

At least he hung onto the ball in that clip. There aren’t many clips of Luka driving left at all, and the ones that do exist tend to end badly. Here, for instance, he tries to drive left after an initial move to his right was deflected; his dribble goes high and he ends up losing it out of bounds. He’s working against a big on a switch here, too.[b] [/b]

More typical are examples like the play below, where you expect him to roll the ball in with his left hand off the glass and instead he uses the right hand to finish. He still got a bucket on the clip below, but an NBA big would have swatted this thing into the mezzanine section.

If you want to see how sharp the contrast is between that and his current left-hand capabilities, here’s the first play of Dallas’s game against Minnesota that I attended on Monday. Josh Okogie lifts up out of his stance for a split second and is immediately toast.

I would argue that this is the biggest and most underrated reason Doncic has elevated his game so sharply, so quickly. (Another point of reference is the Fournier clip above). While he could always get to a stepback going to his left as a late-clock bailout, that hasn’t been a threatening proposition for opposing defenses relative to other outcomes when Luka has the ball on his right hand. Now, he can get easy baskets going either way. The whole floor is open.
I’ll add that this reflects pretty hugely on Doncic as well. Improving your weak hand is difficult work; despite the virtually unprecedented plaudits he received at such a young age, Doncic understood he needed to put in the time to improve here, despite all the early success he had.
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#20
Every team would love quality over quantity. Not easy to find. However even in terms of quantity we are lacking on the size/athleticism front. Against the top teams we are going in conceding that.

I love what JJB did for this franchise. He will still have some good games. However just like with Witten and Dez, it’s time to move on.

Both of the above are on Donnie. I think he has done a great job getting 2 studs in here. Onto the next phase of rebuilding.
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