MKG

[fifteenth]

Despite MKG being good at it, Mavs as a team were still awful against Minny.

Team defense takes some time to build. MKG has played a total of 30 minutes. At the game live I saw individual and team defensive acumen on display.

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No it isn't. It is not foolish to suggest that he CAN be good on offense and that he HAS been good at fitting in to a team offense. 

Look, I will try one more time.

Basketball is a TEAM game. MKG may not be able to win one-on-one offensive matchups, but if he is really bad at team offense then his team will essentially be playing 4 on 5 and this WILL be reflected in the on/off numbers over the course of 1000s of minutes and hundreds of games. A player WILL have a on/off that is very negative over those sample sizes if they bring nothing to the table offensively and are simply a "liability." You cannot successfully hide for thousands of minutes over the course of years.  

The fact that he has three full seasons in the last five full seasons of being positive in offense from an on/off perspective means that he CAN be a solid to good TEAM offensive player (it is POSSIBLE). Meaning he is capable of taking advantage if a defense tries to ignore him. Meaning he is capable of not getting in the way of a team trying to execute its offense. 

Again, if you take a random dude off the street and stick him on an NBA team for five seasons and thousands of minutes he WILL have an on/off that is negative.

Good explanation. The question is "can good offensive units be constructed that include MKG?". I think it's fine to take some hope from past lineup stats. 

The other thing that has me interested in the MKG project is that Rick has shown the ability to find productive offensive roles for reclamation projects. 

I just want to see what Rick and MKG can do together. 

[omahen]

I just want to see what Rick and MKG can do together.

And I want Giannis to join Mavs :-) 

You and some others expressed enthusiasm, some expressed doubts. Nothing wrong with that.

[fifteenth]

Nothing wrong with that.

Of course

To be clear though, I've expressed enthusiasm over what I saw live of MKG's defense. I expressed patience and interest over whether Rick can carve out an offensive role for MKG based on Rick's history of doing so for others.

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Kam shared evidence that suggests that MKG can be a part of lineups that produce on offense.

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SleepingHero expressed excitement over what he saw on D and dissatisfaction over what he saw from MKG's lack of offense.

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You expressed, based on his 30 minutes with the team, that MKG's defense doesn't matter and that his offense is non-existent. Fair enough.

[SleepingHero]

Nothing wrong with that.

Of course

To be clear though, I've expressed enthusiasm over what I saw live of MKG's defense.  I expressed patience and interest over whether Rick can carve out an offensive role for MKG based on Rick's history of doing so for others.

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Kam shared evidence that suggests that MKG can be a part of lineups that produce on offense.

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SleepingHero expressed excitement over what he saw on D and dissatisfaction over what he saw from MKG's lack of offense.

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You expressed, based on his 30 minutes with the team, that MKG's defense doesn't matter and that his offense is non-existent. Fair enough.

I subscribe to Fifteenth's thread summaries.

[fifteenth]

I subscribe to Fifteenth's thread summaries.

LOL

VIP membership for a cup of coffee a day gets you even more of that!!!

[SleepingHero]

No it isn't. It is not foolish to suggest that he CAN be good on offense and that he HAS been good at fitting in to a team offense. 

Look, I will try one more time.

Basketball is a TEAM game. MKG may not be able to win one-on-one offensive matchups, but if he is really bad at team offense then his team will essentially be playing 4 on 5 and this WILL be reflected in the on/off numbers over the course of 1000s of minutes and hundreds of games. A player WILL have a on/off that is very negative over those sample sizes if they bring nothing to the table offensively and are simply a "liability." You cannot successfully hide for thousands of minutes over the course of years.  

The fact that he has three full seasons in the last five full seasons of being positive in offense from an on/off perspective means that he CAN be a solid to good TEAM offensive player (it is POSSIBLE). Meaning he is capable of taking advantage if a defense tries to ignore him. Meaning he is capable of not getting in the way of a team trying to execute its offense. 

Again, if you take a random dude off the street and stick him on an NBA team for five seasons and thousands of minutes he WILL have an on/off that is negative.

If that is the case, then why does MKG have a negative Offensive BPM for his entire career? BPM is purely a stat that measures how the team performs while MKG is on the floor. So why, if as you say MKG is a good team offensive player, have such a below average OBPM? Here's the definition of BPM. 


"Box Plus/Minus, Version 2.0 (BPM) is a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court.  It is based only on the information in the traditional basketball box score--no play-by-play data or non-traditional box score data (like dunks or deflections) are included.

BPM uses a player’s box score information, position, and the team’s overall performance to estimate the player’s contribution in points above league average per 100 possessions played.  BPM does not take into account playing time -- it is purely a rate stat!  Playing time is included in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) which is discussed below. " (hint: he doesn't have a very good VORP either)

MKG's 8 seasons are below, with the last 2 being him this year (split CHA/DAL), -1.6,-2.9, -1.1, 0.2,-1.6, -2.1, -2.3, 0.0, -5.3, -8.8. So by this measure, it shows that MKG is actually a net negative, and a BELOW average player for his team on offense. 

This stat also shows that MKG is a bad team defender, which we know isn't the case from watching the games. Which is exactly why using team based stats to measure individual offensive talent is ridiculous. MKG is a bad offensive player individually, and that will of course affect how his team is defended. It does not matter how his team performs while he's on the court, because these stats don't tell us exactly HOW he himself is affecting the offense, which is why I asked you what is a specific skill or something that we can point to and say that MKG does on the offensive side that indeed helps his team. 

The answer is he doesn't have any one skill, because MKG has no amazing offensive talents. His biggest skill is that he hustles. He creates fast break opportunities based on his defense, and he just generally fights for the ball. Which is totally fine, because that is what this team needs.


If MKG played on a hypothetical dream team with Kareem, Magic, Bird, and Jordan as the other starters with him, but had a bench of Kwame Brown, Anthony Bennett, Cherokee Parks, and 2 dwarfs, and the coach's subs were 5 man platoons, MKG's On/Off AND BPM would be at an all time high, because the 4 other players he plays with score the ball at will, and the bench is well..... not good. So this obviously skews the results for team-based stats.Obviously extremes like this doesn't exist in the NBA, but my point is that if we just looked at MKG's On/Off on that hypothetical team, we'd think he'd be an all-time great, even though we'd have no idea exactly how he affects the offense at all.  

So that's why it doesn't make sense your assertion that MKG is a great team offensive player, because that statement in and of itself is meaningless. Yes basketball is a team based sport, but only 1 person at any 1 time scores during a possession. 

[ClutchDirk]

I subscribe to Fifteenth's thread summaries.

LOL

VIP membership for a cup of coffee a day gets you even more of that!!!

Do we also get daily donuts?...

[fifteenth]

@"SleepingHero", I'd say it's no surprise that BPM doesn't like MKG because it has a box score component in it's derivation.

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I subscribe to Fifteenth's thread summaries.

LOL

VIP membership for a cup of coffee a day gets you even more of that!!!

Do we also get daily donuts?...

No, I just summarize threads. You guys give me donuts. Preferably apple fritters.

[Kammrath]

@SleepingHero, I'd say it's no surprise that BPM doesn't like MKG because it has a box score component in it's derivation.

THIS. BPM will ALWAYS hate him. He doesn't fill the boxscore enough to be visible there. That metric can be helpful for some guys, but it tells you nothing helpful about MKG in my opinion.

[omahen]

You expressed, based on his 30 minutes with the team, that MKG's defense doesn't matter and that his offense is non-existent. Fair enough.

That's your opinion, I never claimed that. I also saw him play before and checked his stats. Which are not really great. Sleepinghero presented you some. But whatever...

I wonder why you feel so offended by opinion different from yours.

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THIS. BPM will ALWAYS hate him. He doesn't fill the boxscore enough to be visible there. That metric can be helpful for some guys, but it tells you nothing helpful about MKG in my opinion.

Oh please, come on. Stop with this ridiculous take that he is a good offensive player. Forget stats and watch a game here and there. As Sleep told you, he has no offensive skills. His baskets are all coming from someone else creating space. They are either shots at below average percentage or when looking for space from other people drives. Any unit can survive 1 of DFS/MKG/Wright types. But halfcourt offense will be certainly worse if you replace any of DFS/KP/Luka/Seth/THJ with MKG. Put more than one limited offensive player in the lineup and halfcourt offense will just die.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMPDK9iiPko

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I have nothing against MKG, but please let's just be realistic and stop with the hype. He has some defensive skills and he will come in handy here and there. But to think that he will suddenly transform into a great NBA player, suddenly his shot will miracoulusly change,...

Same crap as Scott is having with WCS.

[SleepingHero]

I'd say it's no surprise that BPM doesn't like MKG because it has a box score component in it's derivation.

That is fair, but it also takes into account of the teams overall performance while the player is on the court, just like On/Off. Which was my main point. That team based stats can be relatively skewed based on a variety of factors and does not paint an accurate picture of individual offensive talent/performance.

HIS. BPM will ALWAYS hate him. He doesn't fill the boxscore enough to be visible there. That metric can be helpful for some guys, but it tells you nothing helpful about MKG in my opinion.

I mean that is my entire point. There is always a stat that can paint a rosy picture for ANY argument for ANY player. That's why I attest that MKG is not a good offensive player, or is contributing in any meaningful way on the offensive side of the court, despite the fact that you keep bringing up his On/Off numbers as if it points to something that everyone is missing. 

Furthermore I tried to highlight the inherent problem of using team based stats to quantify the impact of an individual because team based stats always have the component of OTHER factors contributing/affecting whatever you're trying to measure. Which was what I was trying to signify in my Magic/Bird/Jordan/MKG/Kareem lineup. 

The funny thing is, I think MKG could have a role in our offense and perform well in that role. He has great length, hustles, etc. And I think Carlisle can find something for him. But SO FAR, BASED ON A LIMITED SAMPLE SIZE, he hasn't fit in well at all. And because of his entire career, where he has always been a limited offensive player, I believe the ceiling of how successful he can contribute to the offense is significantly capped, and him being out there WILL affect how our other 4 players are guarded, because they can essentially sag off of MKG.

[omahen]

The funny thing is, I think MKG could have a role in our offense and perform well in that role. He has great length, hustles, etc. And I think Carlisle can find something for him. But SO FAR, BASED ON A LIMITED SAMPLE SIZE, he hasn't fit in well at all.

Mavs are playing 5 out offense. The only way you can contribute in such offense is if you can shoot, rim run or drive with ball. If your defender doesn't have to be honest on the perimeter, this will close driving and rim running lanes. We were watching this last season when DFS was 30 % 3 point shooter.

[burekemde]

The funny thing is, I think MKG could have a role in our offense and perform well in that role. He has great length, hustles, etc. And I think Carlisle can find something for him. But SO FAR, BASED ON A LIMITED SAMPLE SIZE, he hasn't fit in well at all.

Mavs are playing 5 out offense. The only way you can contribute in such offense is if you can shoot, rim run or drive with ball. If your defender doesn't have to be honest on the perimeter, this will close driving and rim running lanes. We were watching this last season when DFS was 30 % 3 point shooter.

This guy plays AMAZING defense. The defense he has played so far is the best i have seen on this team, and only Maxi and KP have been able to do something like that occasionally.

It is absolutely true on offense he hasnt shown anything. However that is still a great weapon to have. We also have offensive players that dont contribute on defense and that is still pretty good and productive.

If you have a guy that can take out the opposing team star or slow him down that is a weapon to have.

I have been thinking how he could be used on offense without offense taking a step down. How about making him screen not for the primary ball handler, but consistently and repeatedly making off ball screens? What if he sets off ball screens to Luka? It is much more difficult this way for the defense not to pay attention to him because once he sets the screen, the screened player will be attached to him for quiet a bit and will not be able to roam away and set double teams elsewhere.

This also has double sides advantage. I really love the plays where Luka receives the ball just outside the three point line or just beneath it. This saves him a ton of energy dribbling up the court. And in addition Luka receiving the ball like this is much harder to double.

Id like to see THJ get the ball up the court. Then MKG setting off ball screens to Luka, and Luka will then decide where to get. You can then have KP setting secondary screen to Luka and make PnR. THJ and Maxi could sit outside to spread the defense and it will be much harder for the defender that got screened by MKG initially to make the impact he otherwise would be able to shift away from MKG.

If we can put our best defenders and playmakers on the court as much as possible, this creates opportunities to go as far as possible. KP, Maxi, MKG, Luka, THJ i see this as our best lineup by far I have to say. Defensively it would become force in the league. We would need to find ways for MKG to be utilised on offense. At least if we want to make it really far this season in playoffs, getting the best defenders to play more would be key.

[fifteenth]

@"omahen"

I don't get offended by things I disagree with and I certainly haven't been offended in this thread. If I get offended, it's not usually because of the opinion, but how it's presented. I'll work on that. 

It does seem like you and I don't communicate well or end up on the same page often. Maybe that speaks well of you.

Regarding my summary of your MKG takes, I thought I actually came pretty darn close to directly quoting you!!!

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More @"omahen"

i don't think Kam actually said MKG was a good individual offensive player. He just said that on/off shows that he can be part of positive offensive lineups.

Also, the Mavs are running mostly 5-out at the moment, except that KP is picking and rolling some. But, they haven't always ran 5-out, even this season of course, and they could easily go back to more pick and roll if they found someone who they wanted to use as a pick/roll guy. 

I don't know that MKG will be that, especially with much volume, but I bet they'll at least work on it and give it a try.

[ItsGoTime]

I don’t see MKG as a starter. I think he’d be fine backing up DFS if DFS becomes the starter going forward. That would probably be his best role going forward I think. The backups need a DFS in their group too, so that could work well.

[fifteenth]

There is always a stat that can paint a rosy picture for ANY argument for ANY player.

If there is a stat that says something positive about a player, I think it's worth thinking about what that means. Maybe the conclusion is that the stat isn't saying much that has any meaning, and maybe the conclusion is that it is saying something. Kam's point, that on/off suggests that MKG has and can potentially take part in positive offensive lineups, may have some merit.

[Kammrath]

i don't think Kam actually said MKG was a good individual offensive player. He just said that on/off shows that he can be part of positive offensive lineups.

Yep, great reading comprehension. This is all I am saying. Just give him a chance to learn the offense and TRY to integrate. It is NOT a foregone conclusion that he cannot be part of positive offensive lineups.

[fifteenth]

I have nothing against MKG, but please let's just be realistic and stop with the hype.

One last comment omahen, and then I'm caught up.

I don't see hype in this thread.  I commented that I liked what I saw live of MKG's defense and that I'd like to see what Rick can do with his offensive role. Kam says that on/off suggests MKG can at least be a part of positive offensive lineups. That doesn't sound like overly effusive praise to me. Seems pretty realistic to me.

The only think that I see in this thread that's over the top is your comparison of our MKG opinions to that of Scott's WCS obsession.

[omahen]

It does seem like you and I don't communicate well or end up on the same page often.

This is exactly what I was saying. I am just stating my opinion. Why is it a problem for you if it is different than yours? Because you keep bringing up how we often have different opinions. I admit I get heated in my argumentation, but I never take the conversation to anywhere personal. I am coleric and we react this way

i don't think Kam actually said MKG was a good individual offensive player. He just said that on/off shows that he can be part of positive offensive lineups.

This is where Sleep and me argue against. If a line-up is positive offensively it doesn't mean that another line-up wouldn't be even better. 

Also, the Mavs are running mostly 5-out at the moment, except that KP is picking and rolling some. But, they haven't always ran 5-out, even this season of course, and they could easily go back to more pick and roll if they found someone who they to use as a pick/roll guy. 

They will certainly not adjust much to MKG. As I said, MKG has a role if he will be excellent rim runner. Otherwise, he will be a problem on offense.

Regarding my summary of your MKG takes, I thought I actually came pretty darn close to directly quoting you!!!

You watching 20 minutes of MKG play live is supposed to be a proof that he is a defensive beast. Me watching MKG play 20 minutes of offense is a small sample and doesn't mean anything. Don't you think this is a little offensive towards me? Not even pointing out that it was you who decided that all my MKG knowledge comes from watching him 30 minutes for the Mavs.

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I commented that I liked what I saw live of MKG's defense and that I'd like to see what Rick can do with his offensive role. Kam says that on/off suggests MKG can at least be a part of positive offensive lineups.

Your opinion (or wish) is that something like this can happen. My opinion is, that he will be a defensive specialist and not in regular rotation. You argue in support of your position, I argue in support of mine. So, where is the problem? I never said Mavs shouldn't give him the chance. I just don't have high hopes it will be successful.

Sorry for calling your arguments in favour of MKG hype.

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Yep, great reading comprehension. This is all I am saying. Just give him a chance to learn the offense and TRY to integrate. It is NOT a foregone conclusion that he cannot be part of positive offensive lineups.

I totally understand what you are trying to say. However, I am not sure you are willing to listen what Sleep or me are trying to say. I never said he shouldn't be given a chance. While neither conclusion is certain, I think I am entitled to an opinion about what I think is (or will be) his position on the team.

[fifteenth]

I am just stating my opinion. Why is it a problem for you if it is different than yours?

LOL, you are quite confusing. It's not a problem for me. I don't really understand what you're trying to say. 

If a line-up is positive offensively it doesn't mean that another line-up wouldn't be even better. 

I haven't seen anything contrary to this in this thread. The point of trying to find an offensive role for someone like MKG would be to attempt to create a lineup with improved defense without giving up too much offense. 

You watching 20 minutes of MKG play live is supposed to be a proof that he is a defensive beast. Me watching MKG play 20 minutes of offense is a small sample and doesn't mean anything. Don't you think this is a little offensive towards me? Not even pointing out that it was you who decided that all my MKG knowledge comes from watching him 30 minutes for the Mavs.

I think we may have a language barrier in play here. I didn't say ANY of these things. I never said that my live viewing PROVED anything. I simply reported what I saw. Also, I didn't say that you opinion was meaningless! I said that YOU essentially said that MKG's defense doesn't matter. Gargantuan meaning in difference there. Lastly, I didn't say your knowledge of MKG is based on watching him for 30 minutes, I said that you're conclusion about MKG's offensive fit with the Mavs is based on the exactly 30 minutes that he's played with the Mavs. In other words, I was suggesting that it would take more time with the Mavs for us to find out if Rick can find a role for MKG. 

I argue in support of mine. So, where is the problem?

I have never claimed you shouldn't argue your points. It's just that when I reply you conclude that I have a problem with you. 

Sorry for calling your arguments in favour of MKG hype.

Thanks

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@"omahen", I seem to have these exact some kinds of exchanges with Psych. Maybe we have a similar language barrier in play. Either that or I'm just a flawed communicator.