2021 FA Hype

[omahen]

So much hype about 2021 FA, but I dare to say it is better for us to go after 2020 FA crop consisting of a couple of proven players like Van Vleet, Fournier (probably opts out), Gallo, Bogdanovic, Montrezl and Harris. Mavs don't have a difficult task to create cap space this year. Assuming free agency is our plan - not discussing possible trades here.

1. Does anyone think CP3, LBJ and Blake Griffin decline their PO in 2021? Even if they do, should we really take a trip to whatever nursing home they will be residing in their advanced age at that time?
2. Things will have to go terribly wrong in LAC for George and Kawhi to decline their options. This season might already give an indication about possibility for that to happen
3. Hayward, Conley, DeRozan, Aldridge and Lowry will all be playing cards with the number 1 group somewhere in Florida.
4. I assume 100 % reliability Davis resigns and is off the market by 2021
5. Schroeder, Oubre, Winslow, Richardson and Dinwiddie are all basically same quality as 2020 crop. However, there is only so much competition in 2020 - will be much higher in 2021. Miami and Toronto are the the only serious teams in 2020 with possible cap space. If you enjoy playing for loosers like Charlotte or Detroit, good luck to you.
6. This leaves The Freak, Oladipo and Gobert as the only possible prize signings in 2021. With Gobert not really a good fit for us.

Unless Mavs know something they shouldn't know, I would definitely go for 2020 options. How about you?

[Mavs2019]

Cap management is really "simple": Sign players to good contracts.

Positive trade value

Doncic, Kleber, Curry, DFS, Brunson

Neutral trade value

Porzingis, THJ, Boban, Jackson, WCS (last four due to being expiring within the next 12 months)

Negative trade value

Powell, Wright

No trade value (expiring)

Lee, MKG, JJB

So as long as we don´t add a lot of money to the negative column this summer, we´ll be fine next summer.

[aguiar95]

Possible MLE or less guys to keep an eye in this 2020 FA (most teams will be over the cap and will have the MLE to use, so we need to be fast):

PG: Dunn (CHI), Dragic (MIA), Augustin (ORL). In case of both Brunson and Wright gets traded. If not I'm OK with any of those two running our 2nd unit.
SG: Forbes (SAS), Clarkson (UTA), Valentine (CHI). In case Seth gets traded. If THJ gets traded or opts out (and doesn't come into terms on an extension), I would rather throw money at Bogdanovic/Fournier/Harris.
SF: Craig (DEN), Harkless (NYK), Crowder (MIA), Jones Jr. (MIA). PRIORITY. Not sure we're keeping MKG. We need depht in this area in case of a DFS injury (knock wood).
PF: Saric (PHO), Wood (DET), Grant (DEN). PRIORITY. Any one of those guys would add a great set of skills to our big man rotation.
C: Olynyk (MIA), Leonard (MIA). If WCS opts out.

[omahen]

Van Vleet and Gallo are in healthy environments so they might be reluctant to move. Their teams have money to pay them decently. 

Montrezl and Harris are in healthy environments, however an offer in a 15 per range might be too much for their current teams.

Bogi is controlled by Sacramento and it would probably take too high offer to scare them. Unless we bribe them in SnT.

Fournier should consider his priorities. "Loyalty" or winning. Orlando can't realistically offer the second, unless they strike gold with Gordon trade.

[Tyler]

The Bucks are a great team, and personally I think Giannis is a virtual lock to take the super max to stay.  Combine that with the fact that most of the other big names are older, and I think 2021 is largely a hype machine for mediocre teams to sell hope for the future that will probably never materialize.  

I know you said you're not discussing trades, but my current way-too-early guess is that Dallas packages Wright, Jackson, and draft picks for a wing (Aaron Gordon?) on draft night (waiting until July 1st to make it official if they need to include Lee in a S&T) before signing Dragic to the MLE in free agency.  They don't need to wait for a superstar because they already have that with Luka and KP.  So they'll chart their own course building around that core while the rest of the league sits paralyzed by the 2021 hype.

[michaeltex]

Possible MLE or less guys to keep an eye in this 2020 FA (most teams will be over the cap and will have the MLE to use, so we need to be fast):

PG: Dunn (CHI), Dragic (MIA), Augustin (ORL). In case of both Brunson and Wright gets traded. If not I'm OK with any of those two running our 2nd unit.
SG: Forbes (SAS), Clarkson (UTA), Valentine (CHI). In case Seth gets traded. If THJ gets traded or opts out (and doesn't come into terms on an extension), I would rather throw money at Bogdanovic/Fournier/Harris.
SF: Craig (DEN), Harkless (NYK), Crowder (MIA), Jones Jr. (MIA). PRIORITY. Not sure we're keeping MKG. We need depht in this area in case of a DFS injury (knock wood).
PF: Saric (PHO), Wood (DET), Grant (DEN). PRIORITY. Any one of those guys would add a great set of skills to our big man rotation.
C:  Olynyk (MIA), Leonard (MIA). If WCS opts out.

 
To me, Seth is not going anywhere. That 3pt % is too valuable to RCs offensive scheme and none of the other guys brings that. THJ may get traded, depending on how he treats his PO, but I think there is a comfort factor building with Luka/KP that will make the MBT happy to pay him next year. So I expect him to be around. 

MKG and WCS are on try-out status. They are going to have to show they mesh with the core players and can make positive contributions to have a place next year.

All that said, I'm on board with trying to make some key upgrades this summer when the FA competition is not so insane. Just having trade-able assets at the 2021 TDL is going to be worth something as other teams pre-position for the 2021 FA frenzy. Given the Mav's history of FA fails, I'm OK with zigging when everybody else is zagging.

[omahen]

I know you said you're not discussing trades, but my current way-too-early guess is that Dallas packages Wright, Jackson, and draft picks for a wing (Aaron Gordon?) on draft night (waiting until July 1st to make it official if they need to include Lee in a S&T) before signing Dragic to the MLE in free agency.  They don't need to wait for a superstar because they already have that with Luka and KP.  So they'll chart their own course building around that core while the rest of the league sits paralyzed by the 2021 hype.

I trully hope so. A couple of comments

 - I think Dragic will stay in Miami. He loves it there, his family is there and I think Miami also appreciates him. 
- let's rob Orlando. Announce trade for Gordon and then find a way to clear cap space for the dissapointed Fournier . So let's get creative:
1. resign THJ for a 4 year deal starting at 15 mil. WCS opts out, we renounce MKG. Sign #20 rookie, keep Barea cap hold
2. Announce trade for Gordon, Fournier sad
3. Give away Jackson and Bobi for no salary in return
4. Fournier opts out and Mavs sign him for a 4 year deal starting at 16,64 mil (max we can do after all the moves)
5. Mavs trade Wright + Barea SnT + #20 pick + 2025 pick for Gordon. Barea will be likely released by Orlando, so this is a final gift of couple of millions to him.
6. Sign #31 rookie, Reeves and vet minimum guys. Keep roster spot open for released players after TDL.

Luka, Brunson, vet min
THJ, Seth, Reeves
Fournier, DFS, 31st pick
Gordon, Maxi, Powell
KP, vet min center

[Kammrath]

To me, Seth is not going anywhere. That 3pt % is too valuable to RCs offensive scheme and none of the other guys brings that.

At his contract, Seth is close to "untouchable" for me. You will not find someone at his price point to produce how he does.

[omahen]

To me, Seth is not going anywhere. That 3pt % is too valuable to RCs offensive scheme and none of the other guys brings that.

At his contract, Seth is close to "untouchable" for me. You will not find someone at his price point to produce how he does.

Seth is good, not many players like him, but still:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcderdo01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harrijo01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillge01.html

And as a sweetener, two minimum salary guys:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korkmfu01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...ste02.html

[michaeltex]

To me, Seth is not going anywhere. That 3pt % is too valuable to RCs offensive scheme and none of the other guys brings that.

At his contract, Seth is close to "untouchable" for me. You will not find someone at his price point to produce how he does.

Seth is good, not many players like him, but still:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcderdo01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harrijo01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillge01.html

And as a sweetener, two minimum salary guys:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korkmfu01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...ste02.html

But why stir the pot when you can just let it simmer? Unless one of those guys can hit 40% 3pters with excellent handling/distribution skills AND be a game changer on defense?

Roster churn (and not just at the end of the bench) has been a constant for DAL since 2011. Personally, I'm enjoying the ride and seeing this group grow into a team and I think Seth is a part of that. Plus he's going to be in a contract year next season, so maybe some extra motivation?

[omahen]

But why stir the pot when you can just let it simmer? Unless one of those guys can hit 40% 3pters with excellent handling/distribution skills AND be a game changer on defense?

Roster churn (and not just at the end of the bench) has been a constant for DAL since 2011. Personally, I'm enjoying the ride and seeing this group grow into a team and I think Seth is a part of that. Plus he's going to be in a contract year next season, so maybe some extra motivation?

I didn't say we need to trade him. I just said there are players in his salary range with similar production, meaning he is not as unique and as untradeable as Kamm said. Of course it would have to be a very, very good player to consider throwing Seth in the deal.

[Kammrath]

meaning he is not as unique

Because you are going to trade him for the active career three point percent leader??

Oh wait, that is Seth. I would call that unique. The number ONE active three point percent leader.

[omahen]

Because you are going to trade him for the active career three point percent leader??

Oh wait, that is Seth. I would call that unique. The number ONE active three point percent leader.

Come on, you are better than this, picking one stat and focus on it. Yes, he is active career three point percent leader. He is playing great, we all love the guy. But claiming no one produces like him at his price range is high.

Looking at a whole package, he is shooting at low volume, he is not really elite shooter considering all shooting aspects (needs more space and time to shoot it than some other shooters), he is limited defensively. Alltogether, he is still "just" a good bench role player in his late twenties being paid 8 per. He is not even elite number 6 guy compared to some other fellas. Good number 3 player on your team is still way more important. So no, he is not untouchable and Mavs would have easier job replacing him than finding the right number 3 guy.

But yes, he is too good and too valuable to be used just as a salary filler in a trade for that number 3 guy.

[Fuerza1]

Come on, you are better than this, picking one stat and focus on it. Yes, he is active career three point percent leader. He is playing great, we all love the guy. But claiming no one produces like him at his price range is high.

Looking at a whole package, he is shooting at low volume, he is not really elite shooter considering all shooting aspects (needs more space and time to shoot it than some other shooters), he is limited defensively. Alltogether, he is still "just" a good bench role player in his late twenties being paid 8 per. He is not even elite number 6 guy compared to some other fellas. Good number 3 player on your team is still way more important. So no, he is not untouchable and Mavs would have easier job replacing him than finding the right number 3 guy.

It is always laughable when they put Seth vs Steph 3PT% side-by-side on TV and say Seth is better shooter. 

Yeah, Seth is a nice bench piece but he is definitely far from "untouchable," which is also a laughable notion. I would definitely trade him before THJ, DFS, Brunson, or Kleber. But you obviously don't trade him just to trade him. 

Seth ranks in the 41st percentile in on/off court rating despite playing most of his minutes with the starters. Defensively, he ranks in the 28th percentile (63rd offensively). He takes on the THJ role but significantly falls short of THJ's impact. 

THJ ranks in the 94th percentile in on/off court rating this season. In his 2 years in ATL, he ranked in the 80th and 92nd. THJ is a legit starter, especially in this system.

[Kammrath]

despite playing most of his minutes with the starters

Just not true. 

Seth has played 1203 minutes this year. He has played 586 with Luka and 479 with KP and 313 with BOTH of them. He has only played 26% of his minutes with both of the most important and certain starters.

[StepBackJay]

Wouldn't Jrue and Oladipo be the two main targets? Not sure either are max guys but would be pretty good 3rd fiddles. Oladipo did make the all-star team a couple of times but also got injured. Jrue also made the all-star team back when he was in the East.

[Fuerza1]

despite playing most of his minutes with the starters

Just not true. 

Seth has played 1203 minutes this year. He has played 586 with Luka and 479 with KP and 313 with BOTH of them. He has only played 26% of his minutes with both of the most important and certain starters.

omahen:

Come on, you are better than this, picking one stat and focus on it.

No, no he is not.

[ClutchDirk]

despite playing most of his minutes with the starters

Just not true. 

Seth has played 1203 minutes this year. He has played 586 with Luka and 479 with KP and 313 with BOTH of them. He has only played 26% of his minutes with both of the most important and certain starters.

Just to add to another stat...

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...0920864769