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A Few Thoughts on Mavs 130, Kings 111
#1
Now, That's More Like It
Mavs Head into ASB on a High Note

Luka made a triumphant return, and he and Porzingis finally clicked! An outstanding all-around team performance, and a home win!


Game Story

The Mavs had their full complement of available players. The starting lineup was originally listed as Luka/THJ/DFS/KP/Lee. The Kings made a last-minute adjustment to go small, and the Mavs adjusted by putting Brunson in for Lee on the starting unit. The Mavericks mostly went with a one-big lineup throughout the game. 

Dallas got out to a 12-point lead in the first, but didn't close the quarter well, and ended the frame with a 32-28 advantage. The Kings had a 1-point lead at the 7:49 point in the second. In the remainder of the second quarter and throughout the third, it was all Mavs all the time, and they held on to their margin in  the fourth. Point differentials by quarter were +4, +7, +8, 0.


Analytics

Surprisingly, the Mavs lost the possession battle by 14 attempts, primarily due to a 3-10 deficit in offensive rebounds, and to giving up 15 points on 12 turnovers and 23 Kings fast-break points. However, they shot well inside and outside the arc and from the foul line (56%/42%/81%). The boys were +15 in points from threes, even-steven on made free throws, and +4 on points from twos. 

The ball moved well, and 34 of Dallas' 48 made baskets were assisted. All of the starters were in double-digit positive territory except Brunson. 


Players

Seth (34 min) led the team in minutes, and had another stellar performance, with 18 points off the bench on 70% shooting, along with 6 assists. Coach replaced Brunson with Curry to start the second half, and was rewarded for the decision, and the shooting guard had 13 of his points and all of his assists in the second half. The sharpshooter has been averaging over 50% from deep for several games running, and was a perfect 3-3 on the night. Exciting trend!

THJ (33 min) had another strong night, putting up 19 points, including 5 threes, on 7-14 shooting. The Mavs continue to use him in a playmaking role, and he had 6 assists and no turnovers. He also had the team's only steal of the night. Tim's defense is not great, but offensively, he continues his role as one of the squad's most important players. He had a highlight-reel play with an amazing full-court pass to Seth for a floater. 

Porzingis (33 min) was really clicking with LD, recording 27 points on 11-16 shooting, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, and a game-high 3 blocks. An All-Star caliber performance from both of the Mavs' stars! All aspects of his game were excellent, and my favorite assist was a dramatic kick-out to Hardaway for a three. Carlisle gushed over his performance and general progress after the game. Fantastic to see KP come into his own with Luka on the court. If they can play like this on a consistent basis, they will be a tough matchup in the league. 

Luka (31 min) did not have an ounce of rust to shake off, returning after seven games off with a 33-12-8 line, on 10-18 shooting. His energy was infectious, and he frankly looked better off for the enforced rest. In addition to  a number of crowd-pleasing circus shots, he hit three triples and was finding teammates all over the court. The Mavs continued their pre-injury adjustment of frequently having other guards dribble the ball up, thus conserving Luka's energy. The LD-KP connection flourished, and was probably the most encouraging development of the game. Welcome back, young superstar!

WCS and Boban got 4 minutes each of garbage time, and combined for 7 points in a big lineup featuring both players. Boban's ball-rescue game continued apace, with the Serb coming over from the bench to dislodge another stuck ball with a Swiffer. He was also observed after the match leading the Serbian fans in song. What a hoot! New Mav Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was not activated, and is looking ahead to a mini-training camp during the break. 

Kings. Buddy Hield led Sac with 22 points off the bench. The Mavs welcomed a couple of old friends back, with Harrison Barnes putting up 6 points and 7 rebounds, and Yogi Ferrell recording 2 points, an assist, and a steal in 8 minutes. 


Remarks

Carlisle loved the way his team played from start to finish. He especially liked the ball movement, noting the 34 assists. He appeared overjoyed to have Luka back, and thought KP had an outstanding game. 

This was a very good team win for the Mavs. In recent games, I have occasionally thought the squad displayed a certain lack of intensity, even listlessness. We saw none of that here, and the Mavericks looked focused and in sync, which has not been a given in home games. This was a showing of the team at their best. We'll see after the break whether it was one magical night, or whether the guys have really turned a corner. With both Luka and KP hitting on all cylinders, and the other players pulling their weight, we have reason to be optimistic. 


Next. The All-Star break, when we will have a chance to see ya boy Luka in two games. He is very excited about the opportunity, and I think he will impress. 

OK, MFFLs, this is a great way to head into the break! See you on the other side!
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#2
Lee nearly starting is what really interests me. Saw the post about that on Insta and was truly baffled.
Glad they changed their mind 
Who's minutes would he have taken? I guess Brunson and Wright but that seems like a negative 

Just start either Curry or Maxi and call it a day. No need to complicate this.
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#3
(02-13-2020, 07:04 AM)Jym Wrote: Lee nearly starting is what really interests me. Saw the post about that on Insta and was truly baffled.
Glad they changed their mind 
Who's minutes would he have taken? I guess Brunson and Wright but that seems like a negative 

Just start either Curry or Maxi and call it a day. No need to complicate this.
Interesting questions. 

My best guess on Lee is that Rick was trying to keep the bench unit intact, expecting Sac to play a bigger lineup. Seth and Maxi are the bench's strongest players, and the unit tends to be decimated when they move out of it. 

"Starting" Curry is essentially the adjustment they made. Seth played 34 minutes, Jalen 14. Some of Brunson's reserve minutes just occurred at the beginning of the game.
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#4
I sorta like the early mins for Lee kinda like when we added stevenson to the starting lineup to add defense/size and set a tone. Luka/KP/THJ is more than enough offense and if we added WCS or Maxi occasionally to this lineup there are no slouches on D and we can create offense with P&Rs P&Pops, cross screens for midrange or 3s and some post ups/garbage clean up plays.
RIP Kobe.... so sad man. Cry Props to a legend man even though you killed my favorite team(s) too many times to count!! 

Hurts everytime I throw somethin away yellin KOBE!! now but will eventually make me smile too Sad
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#5
[Luka+Jalen] is Luka's WORST two man lineup by a pretty considerable margin. Brunson and Luka must be staggered IMO for this team to be successful.
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#6
Getting this Luka + KP thing going is the most important priority for the rest of the season, and it's not even particularly close.
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#7
Really like KP's effort in this one. He looked so much more confident than before Luka's injury. I guess having to take on the leadership role while Luka was out let him find a groove that's working. It's almost like he finally realizes "Hey! I'm 7-freakin-3 with decent ball skills and can take advantage of that regardless of who's guarding me." I hope this is the new normal.
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#8
What I envisioned all summer happened last night...Luka and KP both with dominate games last night...

https://media.giphy.com/media/QCCcObCnTK.../giphy.gif
Josh Green is a top 5 Mavs player...
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#9
Man, look at all that playmaking! Seth was a amazing, THJ facilitating, KP had some great assists, DFS with the full court touchdown pass...and then Luka. What a balanced offense!

And how about that Luka/KP PnR!? They rolled it out! Play like that against a good team, have Seth and THJ play like that against a good team, and it looks more like two superstars and a 3a and 3b instead of a #1, #2 and a bunch of 5 - 7 guys. 

I know the "play like that against a good team" part isn't a forgone conclusion though.
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#10
(02-13-2020, 09:35 AM)fifteenth Wrote: Man, look at all that playmaking! Seth was a amazing, THJ facilitating, KP had some great assists, DFS with the full court touchdown pass...and then Luka. What a balanced offense!

And how about that Luka/KP PnR!? They rolled it out! Play like that against a good team, have Seth and THJ play like that against a good team, and it looks more like two superstars and a 3a and 3b instead of a #1, #2 and a bunch of 5 - 7 guys. 

I know the "play like that against a good team" part isn't a forgone conclusion though.

I don't know if we acknowledge it enough, but Seth is a damn good ball handler. We get excited about his 3pt accuracy (and we should!) but he's making passes in traffic that are top notch and would make any team better. The one along the baseline to THJ for a 3pter will be in my mind as a great display of basketball acumen, passing skills and commitment to teamwork.

These guys have wins against most of the top teams, so the potential is there. TDL has passed, so everyone can relax for the rest of the season and concentrate on seeing how far this thing can go.
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#11
Has Seth quietly and recently become our 4th best player? Can he take over the role as our 2nd best ball handler (though THJ has done a good job of providing relief for Luka by doing this).

I pronounce myself hopeful and of course I will continue to watch.
This Reunion Rowdie says the AAC needs "Luka's Lunatics" for the Luka/KP and gang era.
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#12
(02-13-2020, 08:59 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: Getting this Luka + KP thing going is the most important priority for the rest of the season, and it's not even particularly close.


[Luka+KP] for the season is +5.8....this is +0.1 better than the overall team rating of +5.7. At some point they were significantly below the team rating so there has been improvement.

[Luka+THJ] is +13.7 for the season and [Luka+DP] was +10.4. That is what you are hoping to get [Luka+KP] up to. 

Last night they were +43.3....so that's a good start. Smile

(02-13-2020, 10:36 AM)Reunion Mav Wrote: Has Seth has quietly and recently become our 3rd best player?!!!


FIFY.

THJ has been great and important but Seth's ball handling and offensive creation responsibilities makes him way more important in the long run IMO. If you double Luka, Seth will destroy you.
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#13
(02-13-2020, 10:42 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Has Seth has quietly and recently become our 3rd best player?!!!


There were a couple of guys here suggesting this possibility before the season started
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#14
https://twitter.com/SeanCunningham/statu...6210959362
Josh Green is a top 5 Mavs player...
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#15
(02-13-2020, 10:42 AM)Kammrath Wrote: +43.3

[Image: giphy.gif]

(02-13-2020, 10:56 AM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://twitter.com/SeanCunningham/statu...6210959362

Don't taunt Happy Fun Ball
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#16
I'm going with Seth is our third best player.  THJ is doing much better than I expected but he is fourth.
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#17
(02-13-2020, 10:42 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [Luka+KP] for the season is +5.8....this is +0.1 better than the overall team rating of +5.7. At some point they were significantly below the team rating so there has been improvement.

[Luka+THJ] is +13.7 for the season and [Luka+DP] was +10.4. That is what you are hoping to get [Luka+KP] up to. 

Last night they were +43.3....so that's a good start. Smile



THJ has been great and important but Seth's ball handling and offensive creation responsibilities makes him way more important in the long run IMO. If you double Luka, Seth will destroy you.

Thanks for bringing up those numbers.  It pains me to say this, but part of KP’s improved play is probably tied to Powell’s injury.  Despite all the complaints about Powell, the team played well when he was on the court.  As you say, Powell with the other four is +10 and Maxi with the other four is -5.5.  Powell was very involved in the offense and very efficient which basically made KP the fourth priority among the starters.  With Powell gone, KP has to be counted on more and hopefully with the rust starting to shake off will be as good in the offensive role (or roll) as he’s been recently.

What I find fascinating now is who is our 5th starter.  I agree Seth is killing it, but I think he Is best used as the first guy off the bench.  He can finish games much like Terry did.  Maybe the 5th starter is situational.  If Maxi is needed for size, he starts.  If MKG is needed to defend a mobile PF or large wing, he starts.  If a team has a guy capable of effectively defending Luka, maybe Seth starts (I might have said Brunson or Wright, but neither has seemed to fit that well with Luka).  

The other interesting thing is figuring out the implications for next summer.  Donnie pretty amazingly grabbed two fairly youngish former top 5 picks for free.  I think MKG may surprise us.  I think WCS is a bench 5 and MKG is a 4 who probably can’t play in lineups with WCS (so he has to be in with KP or Maxi).  If both stick we are arguably up to 10 good rotation players (not counting Powell and Jackson) and we don’t have an obvious 5th starter.  Almost the entire team has an area of specialization they are really good at.  It will be interesting to see which of those valuable roles we are willing to give up for someone who can be more of a complete two-way player.  They could literally be any position 1-4 and fit on this roster.
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#18
(02-13-2020, 10:42 AM)Kammrath Wrote:
(02-13-2020, 10:36 AM)Reunion Mav Wrote: Has Seth has quietly and recently become our 3rd best player?!!!


FIFY.

If you double Luka, Seth will destroy you.


And that’s why a healthy Seth is almost as important as a healthy Luka.

With Seth taking away the possibility of good defensive, athletic teams doubling Luka, that makes it possible to get some wins against those types of teams.
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#19
(02-13-2020, 11:23 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: Thanks for bringing up those numbers.  It pains me to say this, but part of KP’s improved play is probably tied to Powell’s injury.  Despite all the complaints about Powell, the team played well when he was on the court.  As you say, Powell with the other four is +10 and Maxi with the other four is -5.5.  Powell was very involved in the offense and very efficient which basically made KP the fourth priority among the starters.  With Powell gone, KP has to be counted on more and hopefully with the rust starting to shake off will be as good in the offensive role (or roll) as he’s been recently.

What I find fascinating now is who is our 5th starter.  I agree Seth is killing it, but I think he Is best used as the first guy off the bench.  He can finish games much like Terry did.  Maybe the 5th starter is situational.  If Maxi is needed for size, he starts.  If MKG is needed to defend a mobile PF or large wing, he starts.  If a team has a guy capable of effectively defending Luka, maybe Seth starts (I might have said Brunson or Wright, but neither has seemed to fit that well with Luka).  

The other interesting thing is figuring out the implications for next summer.  Donnie pretty amazingly grabbed two fairly youngish former top 5 picks for free.  I think MKG may surprise us.  I think WCS is a bench 5 and MKG is a 4 who probably can’t play in lineups with WCS (so he has to be in with KP or Maxi).  If both stick we are arguably up to 10 good rotation players (not counting Powell and Jackson) and we don’t have an obvious 5th starter.  Almost the entire team has an area of specialization they are really good at.  It will be interesting to see which of those valuable roles we are willing to give up for someone who can be more of a complete two-way player.  They could literally be any position 1-4 and fit on this roster.


Great analysis! We've stockpiled good role players on good contracts. I think the best possible addition to the starting lineup would be that much discussed big wing who can shoot and play defense to play the 4 next to KP. But since we're versatile, as you note, then we may be able to just try for BPA and adjust the good role players accordingly.

(02-13-2020, 11:30 AM)embellisher Wrote: And that’s why a healthy Seth is almost as important as a healthy Luka.


I'm a Sethite, but settle down there partner
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#20
(02-13-2020, 11:23 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: It pains me to say this, but part of KP’s improved play is probably tied to Powell’s injury.


I had not put that together yet.....but, yes, you are absolutely correct I think. 

If Powell's injury forces Luka and KP to learn how to do pick and roll together, then in a strange way his injury may be one of the best things to happen to their careers.
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