2025 draft thread: THE MAVS WIN THE 1ST PICK

[Chicagojk]

My preferred summer doesn't really align with or satisfy most of the opinions here, but it's very much in the vein of these recent posts.

The moves are mostly simply ones, not splashy, and basically would IN TOTAL see the Mavs get Ball and send away Martin, Hardy, and DP. Re-sign Jones (multi-year minimum with TO or NG at end) and Exum (2 yrs 9M). Kyrie re-signs at 3/120.

That's 14. The 15th spot is probably left open, for development and flexibility, and there's still room to spend TxMLE, more or less, and stay below A2.

In the summer they sign PJW to a 3-4 year extension (maybe 20M/yr?) and Gafford to a 2-3 yr extension (maybe 15M/yr?), with a plan to have a big rugged team that wears you down and has the opportunity to grow together. Their PG plan uses lots of combo type guards to create offense, with some big enough to play and defend at SG, but no one to be heliocentric. Kyrie returns in time, but in the meantime some mix-and-match of Klay, Flagg (a point-forward, actually, but starting like Luka's NBA time did with the ball in his hands a lot and a vagueness as to his position), Williams, Ball, Exum. Don't quibble about the details but recognize they definitely would have no problem filling the overall G rotation with good players.

They end up comfortably under A2 with flexibility and a very manageable payroll future.

The end result looks like this:
Starters  ---- main backups ---- deep backups to start season
C - Lively ---- Gafford ---- Jones
F - AD, PJW ---Naji --- Prosper
G - CF, Klay ---Williams, Christie, Ball, Exum --Kyrie eventually

Starting CF at SG essentially is partly because I think he can play that position and present HUGE problems to the opponent on both ends at that position, and also to ensure he gets enough minutes. But if he never plays a minute at G, there's still more than enough good guards to handle their needs.

There's options to go big, small, depth to deal with injuries, and lots of very good talent at every position. And most importantly to me, it doesn't take an impossible get by trade from another team, nor impossible salary-shedding gymnastics.

I would be totally fine with that offseason.   I know we are a lopsided team now and need guards, but I just don't want to giveaway good players where we do not see a clear roster upgrade.   I don't know if Flagg is a SG with that type of roster, but could he start games at the 2 for 4 minutes and then sub into a more standard lineup?  

I think you can have the same type of conversations with Gafford this summer that they should have had with Brunson.   Gafford has made 46 million, I believe, over his career.  Good money, but, not NBA great.   He can surely play out the year, and get a bigger payday next offseason.   Although, does he take the certainty of now at 15-18 million per year to pretty much double his earnings.   His perceived role shouldn't change much if the Mavs truly want AD to play PF.    PJ has made 50 million over his career, so maybe the certainly appears to him too.   Although, I think this will be a more difficult conversation.   I have no idea what type of value each have as expirings.  Both are good players.  At times, real good.   Mavs can't act like they are giving away scraps for either imo.  

PG is the only concern.   Lonzo has not proven he is reliable due to injuries.   If he is out and Kyrie misses the first 50 games next year, the point guard room is really light.    Exum hasn't been the heathiest guy either.

[Smitty]

My preferred summer doesn't really align with or satisfy most of the opinions here, but it's very much in the vein of these recent posts.

The moves are mostly simply ones, not splashy, and basically would IN TOTAL see the Mavs get Ball and send away Martin, Hardy, and DP. Re-sign Jones (multi-year minimum with TO or NG at end) and Exum (2 yrs 9M). Kyrie re-signs at 3/120.

That's 14. The 15th spot is probably left open, for development and flexibility, and there's still room to spend TxMLE, more or less, and stay below A2.

In the summer they sign PJW to a 3-4 year extension (maybe 20M/yr?) and Gafford to a 2-3 yr extension (maybe 15M/yr?), with a plan to have a big rugged team that wears you down and has the opportunity to grow together. Their PG plan uses lots of combo type guards to create offense, with some big enough to play and defend at SG, but no one to be heliocentric. Kyrie returns in time, but in the meantime some mix-and-match of Klay, Flagg (a point-forward, actually, but starting like Luka's NBA time did with the ball in his hands a lot and a vagueness as to his position), Williams, Ball, Exum. Don't quibble about the details but recognize they definitely would have no problem filling the overall G rotation with good players.

They end up comfortably under A2 with flexibility and a very manageable payroll future.

The end result looks like this:
Starters  ---- main backups ---- deep backups to start season
C - Lively ---- Gafford ---- Jones
F - AD, PJW ---Naji --- Prosper
G - CF, Klay ---Williams, Christie, Ball, Exum --Kyrie eventually

Starting CF at SG essentially is partly because I think he can play that position and present HUGE problems to the opponent on both ends at that position, and also to ensure he gets enough minutes. But if he never plays a minute at G, there's still more than enough good guards to handle their needs.

There's options to go big, small, depth to deal with injuries, and lots of very good talent at every position. And most importantly to me, it doesn't take an impossible get by trade from another team, nor impossible salary-shedding gymnastics.

It's just difficult not to like this. Flagg makes a hell of a difference when it comes to opinions on the Mavs roster. I don't know that it's my top choice on the way I'd want them to go this offseason but it's definitely an acceptable one. 

There's something to be said about keeping talented players and letting the coaching staff figure out the fit. I've said it already but want to stress the continuity part also. There's been so much roster turnover every offseason and TDL, that it's impossible to know what any one version of the Mavs is capable of. The bad thing about this coming season is we still won't have an idea on their ceiling until Kyrie is back and looking like Kyrie.

[rocky164]

It's just difficult not to like this. Flagg makes a hell of a difference when it comes to opinions on the Mavs roster. I don't know that it's my top choice on the way I'd want them to go this offseason but it's definitely an acceptable one. 

There's something to be said about keeping talented players and letting the coaching staff figure out the fit. I've said it already but want to stress the continuity part also. There's been so much roster turnover every offseason and TDL, that it's impossible to know what any one version of the Mavs is capable of. The bad thing about this coming season is we still won't have an idea on their ceiling until Kyrie is back and looking like Kyrie.

I’m very much on board with FGump’s suggestions.  We don’t really know what we have and won’t know until training camp and the first few months of the season.  In my mind the key to all of this is getting Gafford and PJ to agree to these extensions.  If they do great!  But if not we probably should look at trades, but I would probably wait until the mid-year deadline.  Letting them play out their contracts and possibly walk is not an option we should leave open.  However, trading AD, as impossible as that would be for Nico, is a much better option and would probably make it more likely that Gafford and PJ sign their extensions.  PJ is best as a 4.  AD is best as a 5.  We don’t know what position is best for CF but I suspect he’ll end up being a better option at 3 than PJ.  Trading AD creates the most natural starting lineup with players playing their most optimal position.  It makes us younger, extends our timeline, depending on the trade results, and allows the Lively/Gafford due to continue without having AD clog up the spacing.  Dumont has mentioned bringing in another executive to help Nico.  This needs to happen ASAP.  We need that voice in the room to allow an AD trade to be considered.  And if a great trade for AD opens up and Nico refuses, fire him.

[Winter]

I’m very much on board with FGump’s suggestions.  We don’t really know what we have and won’t know until training camp and the first few months of the season.  In my mind the key to all of this is getting Gafford and PJ to agree to these extensions.  If they do great!  But if not we probably should look at trades, but I would probably wait until the mid-year deadline.  Letting them play out their contracts and possibly walk is not an option we should leave open.  However, trading AD, as impossible as that would be for Nico, is a much better option and would probably make it more likely that Gafford and PJ sign their extensions.  PJ is best as a 4.  AD is best as a 5.  We don’t know what position is best for CF but I suspect he’ll end up being a better option at 3 than PJ.  Trading AD creates the most natural starting lineup with players playing their most optimal position.  It makes us younger, extends our timeline, depending on the trade results, and allows the Lively/Gafford due to continue without having AD clog up the spacing.  Dumont has mentioned bringing in another executive to help Nico.  This needs to happen ASAP.  We need that voice in the room to allow an AD trade to be considered.  And if a great trade for AD opens up and Nico refuses, fire him.

I think the "unknown" in FGumps' outline is acquiring Lonzo Ball. I'm not sure we can assume that's going to happen.

He's a clear winner because of the contract, so there's good reason to target him. But if you miss out, you have to re-shuffle the deck. Or perhaps live without an established PG and hope the one's we have are sufficient.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Agree... Flagg-PJ-AD is an hell of front court, maybe CF needs time and i don't know how will be street clothes from 2/3 years.

They have to take hard choice for sure and i hope Nico Harrison isn't not the man who take those.

[Chicagojk]

Clutch day in LA yesterday.

Per video, Nico, Kidd and Finely there.  aD and lively too

https://x.com/draftexpress/status/192519...52395?s=46

[Chicagojk]

I think the "unknown" in FGumps' outline is acquiring Lonzo Ball. I'm not sure we can assume that's going to happen.

He's a clear winner because of the contract, so there's good reason to target him. But if you miss out, you have to re-shuffle the deck. Or perhaps live without an established PG and hope the one's we have are sufficient.

Thats is a good point.  I don't share the opinion that the Bulls would be willing to give him away for Junk.  Although, since I became thinking about this he got hurt after the trade deadilne and missed games.   The Bulls also wasn't playing him on back to backs and was also limiting his minutes most of the year.  So maybe he can be had for peanuts.  Although I believe when the Bulls resigned him they want to either keep him or move him to a team for a small asset.   Is that Hardy now?

[vfromlmf]

That starting lineup puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Flagg from the jump. Maybe he's up for it, but I'd be shocked if he's thrown to the wolves like that. You're basically replacing Naji with Flagg in a starting lineup that was blown out to end the season. In that game DAL had three turnovers in the first six possessions (PJW 2, AD 1), two bad shots (Klay runner, AD long two), and Klay made a three. PJW was the primary point of attack defender and Morant's speed put him in foul trouble immediately. They gave up open threes and easy transition looks, went down 9-3 and never recovered. Kidd tried Exum on the ball with Martin guarding poa and that didn't work. Kidd swapped Exum for Williams and he immediately forced a bad shot, double teamed off Bane and gave up an open three.

Flagg will likely have the ball in his hands a lot and obviously he projects as an elite team defender but but I think it's asking for trouble unless they find a starting guard who can handle and defend. That could be Ball or someone we haven't identified. Keon Ellis is a guy I like. SAC may decline his option and make him a RFA.

[Winter]

I'm not so sure the idea of Flagg at the 2 is the way the Mavs really intend to go.

The Kidd podcast has gotten a lot of attention and other Mavs sites have repeated much of that "Flagg could start at the 2" stuff. It's all over the place now.

It's a harmless comment that doesn't do any damage. It tells other teams that the Mavs aren't desparate for a trade, it tells Gafford and PJ that we value them, and it tells Flagg that we love his skillset. But I would really be shocked if we started the season with that proposed lineup.

Like others, I do think keeping PJ and Gafford would be my preference, but I'm guessing that -barring injury- that AD, Flagg, and Lively will be in the frontcourt at the start of the season.

[Smitty]

I'm not so sure the idea of Flagg at the 2 is the way the Mavs really intend to go.

Is it because you don't think he can guard opposing shooting guards in this league? Or because you think he won't be a good off-ball offensive player? Poor shooter?

[F Gump]

Thats is a good point.  I don't share the opinion that the Bulls would be willing to give him away for Junk.  Although, since I became thinking about this he got hurt after the trade deadilne and missed games.   The Bulls also wasn't playing him on back to backs and was also limiting his minutes most of the year.  So maybe he can be had for peanuts.  Although I believe when the Bulls resigned him they want to either keep him or move him to a team for a small asset.   Is that Hardy now?

Your post above is basically my analysis, but perhaps clearer. Thank you. 

No, we can't be certain Ball is available, but I believe CHI aim with Ball is to reap a small asset. I also think Martin OR Hardy could meet that.criteria for them, with the pair being enough to assure they would say yes. 

Yes there's some obvious iffiness, of course, but if Ball for one reason (too impaired) or another (CHI not interested) wasn't workable, then the same idea but for a diff team and PG. But there's a very limited salary range that would work (i have not figured out the number, but Balls 10M up to maybe 15M assuming all 3 of Martin-DP-Hardy are outgoing and also subject to exact Exum salary size ).

[Winter]

Is it because you don't think he can guard opposing shooting guards in this league? Or because you think he won't be a good off-ball offensive player? Poor shooter?

I just don't think it's an ideal team strategy. I'm not sure you're playing to Flagg's or PJ's strengths by playing them out of position. It lacks a little playmaking and maybe Klay's threat as a perimeter player. It just seems a little gimmicky... and a little forced.

[vfromlmf]

The problem is different teams create different problems defensively.

Some teams have a quick lead guard at the point of attack (Ja, SGA, Brunson, Halliburton, Garland, Steph, Murray etc). Someone on Dallas needs to defend these guys. Right now the best bet is Caleb Martin and no one is mentioning him starting or even really in the rotation. Klay certainly can't guard them so a starting Flagg at SG seems unworkable unless you move Klay (to the bench or another team) and replace him with a ball hawking defender who can handle the ball.

Other teams lead with a bigger guard (Luka, ANT, Booker, Mitchell, Harden). Flagg should have a chance guarding these guys on switches but it's asking a lot of a 6' 9" rookie forward to take full-time responsibility here.

Wing point of attack (Tatum, Brown, Lebron, DeRozen, Butler, Kawhi, George) Flagg projects as a strong switchable defender but seems better suited to this type of primary matchup. Teams run offense through these guys but they're not usually the lead ball handler.

[Mavs2021]

You all got Nico defense disease? Lonzo Ball and Dante Exum? On a team that needs AVAILABILITY, RELIABILITY and OFFENSE more than anything else.

[Smitty]

The problem is different teams create different problems defensively.

Some teams have a quick lead guard at the point of attack (Ja, SGA, Brunson, Halliburton, Garland, Steph, Murray etc). Someone on Dallas needs to defend these guys. Right now the best bet is Caleb Martin and no one is mentioning him starting or even really in the rotation. Klay certainly can't guard them so a starting Flagg at SG seems unworkable unless you move Klay (to the bench or another team) and replace him with a ball hawking defender who can handle the ball.

Other teams lead with a bigger guard (Luka, ANT, Booker, Mitchell, Harden). Flagg should have a chance guarding these guys on switches but it's asking a lot of a 6' 9" rookie forward to take full-time responsibility here.

Wing point of attack (Tatum, Brown, Lebron, DeRozen, Butler, Kawhi, George)  Flagg projects as a strong switchable defender but seems better suited to this type of primary matchup. Teams run offense through these guys but they're not usually the lead ball handler.

+1.

I agree and to add to this point, the switch-ability and versatility of what this team projects to be defensively is why I'm not nearly as worried about what we label each player's position. It's like the 7-year debate on what people labeled Luka. On offense he's a PG, on defense he's a Wing/Big, depending on the matchup. If I'm going to label someone at position X, I tend to do so on where they slot on the defensive end. The NBA has really moved off these traditional position labels. 

Also, I could see the Mavs running a lot more zone. We've seen it more and more in the playoffs and not just used as a gimmick or change of pace, but an actual defensive strategy that's effective. Think about the size and athleticism the Mavs can roll out, and the multiple ways they can run defensive schemes in a 7-game series.

[Chicagojk]

You all got Nico defense disease? Lonzo Ball and Dante Exum? On a team that needs AVAILABILITY, RELIABILITY and OFFENSE more than anything else.

Ha.  Touche.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

My preferred summer doesn't really align with or satisfy most of the opinions here, but it's very much in the vein of these recent posts.

The moves are mostly simply ones, not splashy, and basically would IN TOTAL see the Mavs get Ball and send away Martin, Hardy, and DP. Re-sign Jones (multi-year minimum with TO or NG at end) and Exum (2 yrs 9M). Kyrie re-signs at 3/120.

That's 14. The 15th spot is probably left open, for development and flexibility, and there's still room to spend TxMLE, more or less, and stay below A2.

In the summer they sign PJW to a 3-4 year extension (maybe 20M/yr?) and Gafford to a 2-3 yr extension (maybe 15M/yr?), with a plan to have a big rugged team that wears you down and has the opportunity to grow together. Their PG plan uses lots of combo type guards to create offense, with some big enough to play and defend at SG, but no one to be heliocentric. Kyrie returns in time, but in the meantime some mix-and-match of Klay, Flagg (a point-forward, actually, but starting like Luka's NBA time did with the ball in his hands a lot and a vagueness as to his position), Williams, Ball, Exum. Don't quibble about the details but recognize they definitely would have no problem filling the overall G rotation with good players.

They end up comfortably under A2 with flexibility and a very manageable payroll future.

The end result looks like this:
Starters  ---- main backups ---- deep backups to start season
C - Lively ---- Gafford ---- Jones
F - AD, PJW ---Naji --- Prosper
G - CF, Klay ---Williams, Christie, Ball, Exum --Kyrie eventually

Starting CF at SG essentially is partly because I think he can play that position and present HUGE problems to the opponent on both ends at that position, and also to ensure he gets enough minutes. But if he never plays a minute at G, there's still more than enough good guards to handle their needs.

There's options to go big, small, depth to deal with injuries, and lots of very good talent at every position. And most importantly to me, it doesn't take an impossible get by trade from another team, nor impossible salary-shedding gymnastics.

Excellent post, as usual, F Gump.

YES!  The Lively/Gafford two headed monster is a differentiator from the rest of the league.  I love how they compliment each other.

Great comp of Flagg to Luka, a less ball dominant player who can defend.  I like him at SF, point forward.  Do you think that SG may be a stretch?

That'd open up for a PF rotation of AD/PJ.  Another two-headed monster.  Maybe keeping AD at around 24mins would really help the injuries?

Ball, Williams, Exum (Kyrie in Jan)
Christie, Klay
Flagg, Naji, OMax
AD, PJ, Jones
Lively, Gafford

That's a stout 14 man roster.  I wonder, though, could AD be moved for a true PG?  Dejounte Murray, send AD back to NOP?

[vfromlmf]

+1.

I agree and to add to this point, the switch-ability and versatility of what this team projects to be defensively is why I'm not nearly as worried about what we label each player's position. It's like the 7-year debate on what people labeled Luka. On offense he's a PG, on defense he's a Wing/Big, depending on the matchup. If I'm going to label someone at position X, I tend to do so on where they slot on the defensive end. The NBA has really moved off these traditional position labels. 

Also, I could see the Mavs running a lot more zone. We've seen it more and more in the playoffs and not just used as a gimmick or change of pace, but an actual defensive strategy that's effective. Think about the size and athleticism the Mavs can roll out, and the multiple ways they can run defensive schemes in a 7-game series.

If the Mavs are going to play zone they better work on it. First time they tried it against MEM Jaren Jackson popped to the free throw line, caught the ball, turned and casually sank a wide open 10 footer before Lively knew what hit him. Granted, DAL's execution on both ends was terrible from the tip.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

repetitive

[FireNicoHarrison]

If the Mavs are going to play zone they better work on it. First time they tried it against MEM Jaren Jackson popped to the free throw line, caught the ball, turned and casually sank a wide open 10 footer before Lively knew what hit him. Granted, DAL's execution on both ends was terrible from the tip.

A good coach could help...