'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[F Gump]

That's the way it has worked lately, as in the last few games, but not the way it started, and even Dinwiddie, himself, said the other day he doesn't even know if he'll be in the rotation when everyone is back, so it must not seem so black and white to him. 

Also, I'll make any bet you or anyone else wants that there will be a shortened (fewer than 10) rotation down the stretch and in most playoff games. There is a 0% chance their plan A will be to play 10 guys. There will be important playoff games in which 10 or even 11 GET IN, sure, but that will indicate a reaction to less than favorable circumstances. The actual rotation will be down to 9, at least, if not 8.

The number in the rotation depends on how you define the rotation. And also on whether there are injuries that deplete the choices Kidd has to work with.

Kidd having a fairly well defined depth chart is not saying they will all get lots of minutes, because in the playoffs some starters play a lot. To be specific, Luka, Kyrie, and PJW would be likely to play in the upper 30s, and maybe even 40 or more in a game or three, which leaves sparse minutes for their backups. 

I do think we are seeing a bit of fluidity in the backups to Luka-Kyrie-Klay, since Kyrie slides to the 1 especially when Luka sits, which varies what else is needed on the floor at SG and SF. But I think Kidd's 4s and 5s have become well defined, with the only variable being whether he has Maxi also playing a bit at C for a changeup look. 

I do think in the playoffs there may be series where they go off script a bit more, because when you are playing the same team over and over, you find and focus on what is working. Or in tough times, you are going off script to find solutions.

It's a long season. Injuries. Slumps. Nagging limitations. All those can come into play. But I still think Kidd's general thinking on the rotation is that each position is different, each will have distinct backups, who are the best backup in that slot, and that the slotting is already starting to emerge.

[F Gump]

That's the way it has worked lately, as in the last few games, but not the way it started

You keep pointing to the fact (which I haven't disagreed with) that Naji played a lot of PF early in the season. But you are missing on "why" - and that is key to understanding.

Sure, the season started with a feeling out period with new players, and it always does (and should).

But before the initial few games of trying to figure it out had passed, Maxi was injured and not available again until game 12. 

Obviously while he was out, Naji was the only option at backup PF. And as he was used, Kidd figured out (and made it clear) that Naji at the 4 was not desirable.

Those actions (as well as Kidd's words) speak volumes.

FWIW, they were 4-5 while Naji was part of the PF mix. Once Maxi came back, Maxi has been the backup 4, and they have gone 9-2. Clearly there's more to it than that one change, but their interior defense and rebounding has changed considerably to the better with Maxi, and having a shutdown defense and interior is Kidd's focus.

[KillerLeft]

You keep pointing to the fact (which I haven't disagreed with) that Naji played a lot of PF early in the season. But you are missing on "why" - and that is key to understanding.

No, sir. I’m not “missing“ the injuries, which I have already agreed are part of the equation. I’m disagreeing with your conclusion (as I understand it) that because there are injuries involved, that’s proof that there can be no other reasoning for the lineup changes. I don’t see mutual exclusivity there, nor am I even looking for any.

You might be right, but I don’t think so, based on my read of what we have seen so far and some other observations/thoughts I have and have read/heard some really smart basketball minds support. 

I do agree that Kidd wants to play with the rotation you laid out, and I suppose it’s true that any NBA coach hopes that his plan A will just steamroll all of the competition, so in a way I’m in lockstep with you.

But, if he’s going to be as stubborn about that as you seem to think, this season is going to end with disappointment. If I agreed with you, I would be pretty worried about the implications that kind of thinking are bound to have on this season’s ceiling. But again, I just don’t agree. Not in total, and not so far, at least.

[KillerLeft]

The number in the rotation depends on how you define the rotation. And also on whether there are injuries that deplete the choices Kidd has to work with.

Yes. And, how the players and schemes match up against certain opponents.

[Chicagojk]

It will be really interesting to see how things play out when everyone is healthy. I am pretty surprised with Dinwiddie recent play. Kidd is comfortable with him though and I think we need to think he may get more than just the spot minutes each game. If this is true, it makes a deep lineup even deeper. I think we may see Maxi just on the edge of the regular rotation. Maybe a guy who doesn't play for a game and then depending on matchups he gets minutes at PF or Center.

I just feel like with the recent play of Marshall and Grimes that there are not enough minutes to satisfy everyone if Maxi is getting 10-15 minutes at backup PF. Maxi can certainly be impactful on defense, even if he is a zero on offense right now. It just feels like the Mavs are prioritizing everyone being able to put the ball on the floor (outside of our centers). I was not really impressed with Marshall at the 4 earlier in the season but this team is playing differently now and so is Marshall.

Marshall taking most of the backup 4 minutes is my guess right now with a full squad.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

It will be really interesting to see how things play out when everyone is healthy.  I am pretty surprised with Dinwiddie recent play.  Kidd is comfortable with him though and I think we need to think he may get more than just the spot minutes each game.  If this is true, it makes a deep lineup even deeper.  I think we may see Maxi just on the edge of the regular rotation.  Maybe a guy who doesn't play for a game and then depending on matchups he gets minutes at PF or Center. 

I just feel like with the recent play of Marshall and Grimes that there are not enough minutes to satisfy everyone if Maxi is getting 10-15 minutes at backup PF.  Maxi can certainly be impactful on defense, even if he is a zero on offense right now.  It just feels like the Mavs are prioritizing everyone being able to put the ball on the floor (outside of our centers).  I was not really impressed with Marshall at the 4 earlier in the season but this team is playing differently now and so is Marshall. 

Marshall taking most of the backup 4 minutes is my guess right now with a full squad.

IMO, Naji's ideal role is at SF on this team.  Also IMO, as the starter with Klay as our 6th man.

Granted that given the needs of the roster right now, Naji will have to play the backup PF minutes when (not if) Maxi is injured.

The answer is to upgrade Maxi, allowing Naji to do what he does best.

[michaeltex]

IMO, Naji's ideal role is at SF on this team.  Also IMO, as the starter with Klay as our 6th man.

Granted that given the needs of the roster right now, Naji will have to play the backup PF minutes when (not if) Maxi is injured.

The answer is to upgrade Maxi, allowing Naji to do what he does best.

FWIW, there was an OMax sighting this weekend. 

I say that in jest because he needs a lot more exposure before anybody will depend on him for important minutes. But at least the potential isn't dead yet.

[KillerLeft]

I can't stifle my excitement for the positive showing O-Max gave us in the last game. I know it's a bar so low I'm in danger of tripping over it, but I can't help myself. I'm upside down on the property I own on O-Max Island (roughly 68% of the land there, when last I checked) and I desperately need some supply lines to get going again so I can start generating some revenue through tourism, at least.

Having said that, I'm still buying, if anyone is selling. I think it's just Scott, Sleeping Hero and me left as stakeholders.

[SleepingHero]

I can't stifle my excitement for the positive showing O-Max gave us in the last game. I know it's a bar so low I'm in danger of tripping over it, but I can't help myself. I'm upside down on the property I own on O-Max Island (roughly 68% of the land there, when last I checked) and I desperately need some supply lines to get going again so I can start generating some revenue through tourism, at least.

Having said that, I'm still buying, if anyone is selling. I think it's just Scott, Sleeping Hero and me left as stakeholders.

OMax Island stock is one I will HODL till the sun ceases to heat the Earth. I just love the dude that much, despite his relatively shallow showcasings thus far.

BUT! The Toronto game also really renewed my energy. Mostly because it was really the first time OMax got significant run against a middling team and showed out. Most of his games last year when he got big minutes were when the Mavs were throwing in the towel that night. But against Toronto he showed how he could fit next to Luka/Kai/Klay/Lively. And he looked like a natural.

I really hope Kidd rolls with it and gives OMax some extended run this month, even if it comes at the expense of some Kleber or PJ minutes.

[rocky164]

I can't stifle my excitement for the positive showing O-Max gave us in the last game. I know it's a bar so low I'm in danger of tripping over it, but I can't help myself. I'm upside down on the property I own on O-Max Island (roughly 68% of the land there, when last I checked) and I desperately need some supply lines to get going again so I can start generating some revenue through tourism, at least.

Having said that, I'm still buying, if anyone is selling. I think it's just Scott, Sleeping Hero and me left as stakeholders.

I’m a believer.  Defensively he’s there.  Some players simply take more time to develop.  Mavs have nothing to lose by waiting.  And if he hits….

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I’m still all in on Omax Island too! Have never really wavered. If he hits then this thing gets really interesting. We would have our Maxi replacement already in house and cheap. If we consider Naji/PJ/Din/Hardy our defacto “third creator,” by committee, then an effective 5-Out lineup becomes our other pressing near future need. If by the end of NEXT season Omax can be up to speed as Maxi’s replacement, we could go “small” with PJ, OMax, Luka front court.

My hope with OMax is that he doesn’t turn out to be “too nice.” I’m one of the board’s biggest Josh Green fans, but even I have to admit he was a little too tentative. The thing they both have in common is great motor. We have missed that energy at times from Josh this season and Omax supplied some of that against Toronto. That kind of hustle is infectious and good things seem to cascade from one guy just going balls out. Have seen Dwight Powell single handledly change games like this over the years too.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I wrote Omax's obit hoping I was wrong. He could answer our biggest need.

[KillerLeft]

My hope with OMax is that he doesn’t turn out to be “too nice.” I’m one of the board’s biggest Josh Green fans, but even I have to admit he was a little too tentative. The thing they both have in common is great motor. We have missed that energy at times from Josh this season and Omax supplied some of that against Toronto. That kind of hustle is infectious and good things seem to cascade from one guy just going balls out. Have seen Dwight Powell single handledly change games like this over the years too.

Wow, what a great connection and comp! I totally agree, all the way down to your worry that killer instinct (or lack thereof) might be the thing to watch.