'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Grimes/PJ/Lively is easily the trio going forward that should see plenty of minutes together. 

Not even insulting Klay. Klay has been good in his role. He certainly helps in games where Luka/Kyrie missing. And allows to bring Luka's minutes down, if you wanna do that.

100% agree.  That trio gives you three levels of excellent defense around Luka and Kyrie.  If Grimes and PJ can hit threes, the Mavs are a title contender.  

Luka, Kai, Lively, PJ, Klay, Grimes, Naji are top 7

Gafford/Kleber are the 8th in the rotation depending on matchup and Kleber's health.  If Kleber gets hurt again, you could look for help at small ball center.
Exum/Hardy are the 9th in the rotation.  If Hardy doesn't improve and/or Exum is hurt, you could look for help at backup PG.

[KillerLeft]

100% agree.  That trio gives you three levels of excellent defense around Luka and Kyrie.  If Grimes and PJ can hit threes, the Mavs are a title contender.  

Luka, Kai, Lively, PJ, Klay, Grimes, Naji are top 7

Gafford/Kleber are the 8th in the rotation depending on matchup and Kleber's health.  If Kleber gets hurt again, you could look for help at small ball center.
Exum/Hardy are the 9th in the rotation.  If Hardy doesn't improve and/or Exum is hurt, you could look for help at backup PG.

This is EXACTLY how I see it (currently), and written so concisely I'm embarrassed to have created the OP. Bravo.

[ThisIStheYear]

It’s time to move on from Kleber and package him with Omax/Hardy (whenever he’s tradeable) to bring back a useful player. Kleber’s main value now is to help match salaries in a trade. Aging, stiff, indecisive, and usually injured, he’s regressed to just be a guy who comes into the game to foul. Too bad, a Maxi style player is exactly what the Mavs need.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

It’s time to move on from Kleber and package him with Omax/Hardy (whenever he’s tradeable) to bring back a useful player. Kleber’s main value now is to help match salaries in a trade.  Aging, stiff, indecisive, and usually injured, he’s regressed to just be a guy who comes into the game to foul. Too bad, a Maxi style player is exactly what the Mavs need.

Too many injuries the last few years, he's on the wrong side of 30, and he's lost confidence in his shot.

[mvossman]

It’s time to move on from Kleber and package him with Omax/Hardy (whenever he’s tradeable) to bring back a useful player. Kleber’s main value now is to help match salaries in a trade.  Aging, stiff, indecisive, and usually injured, he’s regressed to just be a guy who comes into the game to foul. Too bad, a Maxi style player is exactly what the Mavs need.

His complete lack of willingness to shoot is a real problem.  I hope he snaps out of it because he still provides value on the other side of the court.  I do remember having similar conversations about him early last season, and then he turned out to be very valuable in that late season run when Lively was out (as a center).  As for trading him, I'm afraid we would have to pay assets to send him out given his injury history and offensive struggles.  We might be better off waiting until next offseason/TDL when he will be an expiring.

[KillerLeft]

We have the same conversation about Kleber every year.

Yes, he's injury prone. Yes, he goes through maddening stretches where his shot is unreliable and/or he's afraid to even shoot, which sucks, because that's a large part of his utility. I think that has to do with his balance since whatever they had to do to fix that major toe injury he had, but regardless, it's frustrating. And, since I started this thread he's had two pretty rough games, for sure.

But, he's undeniably still one of the better small 5/big 4 defenders in the NBA when he's moving well, and he's actually started this season moving better than he did at any point last season. I personally don't think now is the time to give up on him, and that his shot/confidence will come back as he knocks off all the rust he accumulated last year. But, I understand how much patience is required with him and don't blame some for want of it.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

We have the same conversation about Kleber every year.

Yes, he's injury prone. Yes, he goes through maddening stretches where his shot is unreliable and/or he's afraid to even shoot, which sucks, because that's a large part of his utility. I think that has to do with his balance since whatever they had to do to fix that major toe injury he had, but regardless, it's frustrating. And, since I started this thread he's had two pretty rough games, for sure.

But, he's undeniably still one of the better small 5/big 4 defenders in the NBA when he's moving well, and he's actually started this season moving better than he did at any point last season. I personally don't think now is the time to give up on him, and that his shot/confidence will come back as he knocks off all the rust he accumulated last year. But, I understand how much patience is required with him and don't blame some for want of it.

*When is the key word.  I'd predict him at 800 minutes this year, with a lot of those minutes being hobbled coming back from injury.  This our biggest hole.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

It’s also the single hardest role to fill in many ways, aside from finding a superstar. There aren’t a lot of Maxis lying around, and the ones that are, are generally not available. It’s why we should keep Kleber and Omax. Unless a no-brainer trade presents itself. Best we can do is unearth a Xavier Tillman type deal. What did the Celtics for him last deadline? Two or 3 seconds?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

It should. No chance they would consider taking on a salary that size as an insurance policy, especially in light of the trade match (requiring about $15M in outgoing salary) and what depth might be lost in that package.

Ya, I don't see DFS returning unless on a min-ish signing like Din.  He's still a few seasons away from that.

[SleepingHero]

I have yet to read or even contribute to this cool topic, but on the idea of playoff rotation, being able to prevent the opponent from even shooting is an important trait. So far this season, this is who are the best in the NBA at it:




Klay and Grimes being both in the top 10 has to be considered for "closing" lineups. Luka+Kyrie will always be there, but perhaps there is a chance we can move Klay to a small ball 4 position and have Grimes at the 3 in certain scenarios. One such scenario could be against Boston's lineup of 4 guards+1 big. Grimes is quick enough and big enough to guard Jaylen Brown. I think Klay has what it takes to stay on Tatum. 

Just thinking out loud here.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I have yet to read or even contribute to this cool topic, but on the idea of playoff rotation, being able to prevent the opponent from even shooting is an important trait. So far this season, this is who are the best in the NBA at it:




Klay and Grimes being both in the top 10 has to be considered for "closing" lineups. Luka+Kyrie will always be there, but perhaps there is a chance we can move Klay to a small ball 4 position and have Grimes at the 3 in certain scenarios. One such scenario could be against Boston's lineup of 4 guards+1 big. Grimes is quick enough and big enough to guard Jaylen Brown. I think Klay has what it takes to stay on Tatum. 

Just thinking out loud here.

Interesting.  I never knew this was being measured.  When I did my defensive rating system, I used opponents' missed shots, but didn't think about the shots they didn't attempt.

[Smitty]

In the WCF Finals last year:

Luka 40 | Exum 5
Kyrie 40 | Hardy 10
DJJ 33 | Green 19
PJW 39 | Maxi 11
Gafford 25 | Lively 22

In the Finals last year:

Luka 39 | Exum 8
Kyrie 39 | Hardy 7
DJJ 23 | Green 20 | THJ 12
PJW 33 | Maxi 16
Gafford 15 | Lively 23

The Mavs won't drop to an 8-man rotation like some teams do. In the finals, 10 players played in all 5 games and THJ played in 4. 
In the WCF, 9 players would have played in all 5 games if not for the Livley injury. Same for the first two rounds, 9-10 player rotations.



Guards: Luka and Kyrie will play ~80 minutes. Bench Guard (Dinwiddie) gets the ~16 minutes.
Wings: Klay and PJW will play ~60 minutes. Bench Wings (Grimes & Naji) get the ~36 minutes.
Centers: Lively and Gafford will play ~48 minutes. Bench Big (Kleber) is the 10th, if healthy and matchup dictates play time over Gafford.

As it stands today, that's the clear 9-10 man playoff rotation.

[KillerLeft]

In the WCF Finals last year:

Luka 40 | Exum 5
Kyrie 40 | Hardy 10
DJJ 33 | Green 19
PJW 39 | Maxi 11
Gafford 25 | Lively 22

In the Finals last year:

Luka 39 | Exum 8
Kyrie 39 | Hardy 7
DJJ 23 | Green 20 | THJ 12
PJW 33 | Maxi 16
Gafford 15 | Lively 23

The Mavs won't drop to an 8-man rotation like some teams do. In the finals, 10 players played in all 5 games and THJ played in 4. 
In the WCF, 9 players would have played in all 5 games if not for the Livley injury. Same for the first two rounds, 9-10 player rotations.



Guards: Luka and Kyrie will play ~80 minutes. Bench Guard (Dinwiddie) gets the ~16 minutes.
Wings: Klay and PJW will play ~60 minutes. Bench Wings (Grimes & Naji) get the ~36 minutes.
Centers: Lively and Gafford will play ~48 minutes. Bench Big (Kleber) is the 10th, if healthy and matchup dictates play time over Gafford.

As it stands today, that's the clear 9-10 man playoff rotation.

Worth noting that the reason for those deeper rotations was that Kidd was desperately searching for options that provided the combination of defense with willingness to shoot from the perimeter. Otherwise, we'd never have seen Hardy and THJ probably would've stayed benched, based on the way his regular season ended. I don't think that remotely reflects what is ideal or likely to happen in a world wherein some sort of plan is even mildly successful, personally.  

I'm betting it will be 9, at most, and if it's more...I don't think that will be a good sign. 7-8 minutes isn't really enough to find the rhythm of the game and contribute.

[Smitty]

Worth noting that the reason for those deeper rotations was that Kidd was desperately searching for options that provided the combination of defense with willingness to shoot from the perimeter. Otherwise, we'd never have seen Hardy and THJ probably would've stayed benched, based on the way his regular season ended. I don't think that remotely reflects what is ideal or likely to happen in a world wherein some sort of plan is even mildly successful, personally.  

I'm betting it will be 9, at most, and if it's more...I don't think that will be a good sign. 7-8 minutes isn't really enough to find the rhythm of the game and contribute.

It was a 9-10 man rotation in 2022 also. Safe to say it will be at least 9 deep. The 9 in bold are the clear 9.
Maxi getting playing time over Gafford in a number of games is where the 9-10 comes from. I agree that 7-8 minutes isn't enough to find a rhythm.

I could also see a scenario where Dinwiddie doesn't play and Grimes/Naji absorb the ~16 minutes of backup guard available. Still, leaving it to a 9-man rotation with Maxi getting 5-out minutes.

[SkenfromLMF]

If I were attempting to break down playoff minute distribution in a dream scenario -
Guards: Luka/Kyrie 36 ea; Din 18; Hardy/Exum 6
Wings: PJ 27; Klay/Grimes/Naji 23 ea
Center: Gaff/Lively 44 min; Maxi 4

[F Gump]

You guys are still getting it wrong imo because you're sleeping on Maxi. He's the backup PF. The Mavs will not play PJW 48 minutes. Maxi will get those minutes. Naji is NOT a 4, and Kidd rightly sees more value in playing the better PF as PF rather than using a non-PF to get that non-PF more minutes. And to Kidd there's not a better backup PF on the roster than Maxi, because they like his defense, his shot-blocking, his agility. 

Hate him all you want, because the injuries are frustrating, but I believe as long as he's on the roster and healthy, he IS and WILL BE Kidd's backup 4.

WHEN EVERYONE IS HEALTHY -- The idea that Maxi is going to be used at C (with PJW) isn't really part of the PF equation at all. We do see Kidd using him at C in matchup situations when he feels the need for his skillset there, but that's more likely when a C is injured. I don't think it's to "get him some minutes" or seen as a substitute for him playing backup PF. I think Kidd's style is to play PFs at PF and Cs at C and so on, so he gets play from a better player at that position rather than an inferior one.

As far as the overall rotation, I think it's fairly obvious who the 10 are, and they are at obvious positions. Gafford, Maxi, Naji, Grimes, SD are the backups.

If everyone is healthy, looks to me like Hardy has become 11th man in the pecking order with the emergence of SD and Grimes, and can maybe get spot minutes to try to be a spark at the 1,2, or 3, and who knows what might happen when Exum returns.

[KillerLeft]

You guys are still getting it wrong imo because you're sleeping on Maxi. He's the backup PF. The Mavs will not play PJW 48 minutes. Maxi will get those minutes. Naji is NOT a 4, and Kidd rightly sees more value in playing the better PF as PF rather than using a non-PF to get that non-PF more minutes. And to Kidd there's not a better backup PF on the roster than Maxi, because they like his defense, his shot-blocking, his agility. 

Hate him all you want, because the injuries are frustrating, but I believe as long as he's on the roster and healthy, he IS and WILL BE Kidd's backup 4.

WHEN EVERYONE IS HEALTHY -- The idea that Maxi is going to be used at C (with PJW) isn't really part of the PF equation at all. We do see Kidd using him at C in matchup situations when he feels the need for his skillset there, but that's more likely when a C is injured. I don't think it's to "get him some minutes" or seen as a substitute for him playing backup PF. I think Kidd's style is to play PFs at PF and Cs at C and so on, so he gets play from a better player at that position rather than an inferior one.

As far as the overall rotation, I think it's fairly obvious who the 10 are, and they are at obvious positions. Gafford, Maxi, Naji, Grimes, SD are the backups.

If everyone is healthy, looks to me like Hardy has become 11th man in the pecking order with the emergence of SD and Grimes, and can maybe get spot minutes to try to be a spark at the 1,2, or 3, and who knows what might happen when Exum returns.

Well, I'm definitely in the "Kleber is still a viable rotation piece" camp, as per the OP, where I listed him in my top 7. 

I see more lineup/style experimentation than you do, apparently. They've actually run PJW at center with Marshall at the 4 more than I expected already this season, and only partly because of injuries, imho. Some interesting results, too.

I do agree that the roster was built with depth at each player's obvious position in mind, but I don't agree with how binary you see things. "Naji is NOT a 4" is not something I can remotely agree with, for example. I see him as a player with pretty obvious positional versatility. That's just one example, but I thought the Dunkers Spot guys got it right today (thanks for posting that btw, Smitty) when they said this team has the ability to mix and match and play loads of different ways. 

To put it differently, while I don't agree that Kidd is so dead set on playing the way you suggest, if it turns out you're right about that, I think that will be significantly undermining what could potentially make this team special by the end of the season. Just one man's opinion.

[The Jom]

Interesting clues tonight, I believe, to the playoff-rotation puzzle.

1. Lively with 32 minutes.
2. Dinwiddie with the 5th most minutes, 24.
3. PJ with 38 mins.
4. Hardy with only 4.

[F Gump]

Interesting clues tonight, I believe, to the playoff-rotation puzzle.

1. Lively with 32 minutes.
2. Dinwiddie with the 5th most minutes, 24.
3. PJ with 38 mins.
4. Hardy with only 4.

Note to KL, following up with this post ^ and re my "too-binary" thinking - look at the way Kidd played it in this game they thought important...
Lively 32 Gafford 16
PJW 38 Maxi 10
Klay 20 [Naji out]
Kyrie 35 Grimes 20 (fills in some of Naji missing)
Luka 40 SD 24 (fills in some of Naji missing) Hardy 4 (fills in some of Naji missing)

IMO Kidd's way MORE binary than we tend to realize, and the mix-and-match stuff is due to the reality of injuries and matchup/foul issues in some games.

Edited to add: As to Naji being a 4, I don't think he REALLY is a 4 at all, never has been and Mavs don't see him as filling what they need. BUT in a pinch (ie when injuries cause the lineup to be depleted and perhaps scrambled, or maybe severe foul trouble), he's one way they might try to fill the minutes.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

It was interesting to me that in the Portland game Billups went small and Kidd matched him small with Maxi in the middle. Waited a long time to go back to Gaff.