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Critical and Fundamental Statistical Observations
#1
Here is an early critical and fundamental statistical observation from the first 4 games:

In the three games Mavericks have won Lively and Gafford combined for the average of 22 points. In the one game Mavericks have lost they combined for only 12 points.

ps Twin towers baby. Which is great. No longer just about Kyrie.
pps Critical means that it is or must be critically important. And fundamental means that it affects everything. (In short).
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#2
Our center rotation is key for sure.

I wonder if this is indicative because if the paint is open more, our guards are feasting on the perimeter. The game against the Suns, no one could buy a bucket outside.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#3
It is great. Loved to see both centers sprint down the floor. Such a weapon. We saw in the playoffs that some matchups were not great for Gafford. We need to remember though that was his first playoff experience. I think at most he is probably a 22 minute player in the playoffs.

Having such active big man creates so many issues for teams. They do a good job protecting the rim and are always a factor at the rim on offense. I think the more quick actions we do, the more open dunks they will get.
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#4
I've listened to a few of the local podcast recently and I really hope we don't let this 'Lively is better than Gafford and should be starting' argument get to the national media level because then the narrative will inevitably change. I think it's fair to say that Lively is better but it doesn't have to be at the expense of Gafford if that makes sense. Both are good. Both are capable starters.

My personal opinion, Gafford starting makes sense from a coaching standpoint in that Gafford is slightly inferior to Lively and therefore plays most of his minutes with starters (Luka in particular for the natural "Luka bump") and that Lively doesn't necessarily need the "Luka bump". Ultimately, if Lively gets more minutes and more opportunities to close then I don't care about which one starts.

Bottom line, I like to think of them as a tandem, Twin Towers, as LukaMagic dubbed them.
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#5
FWIW, starting Gaff also gives Lively a chance to get a feel for the game's rhythm before having to actually perform on court. Not saying it's a big deal, but it empirically seems to be working.
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#6
I love our centers. They're super important. I'm not sure that their scoring output is a nightly "critical and fundamental." The Mavs have a lot of players who can score. I'll agree that their general play is critical.
Not very astute ^^^^
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#7
(10-30-2024, 04:49 AM)LukaMagic Wrote: Here is an early critical and fundamental statistical observation from the first 4 games:

In the three games Mavericks have won Lively and Gafford combined for the average of 22 points. In the one game Mavericks have lost they combined for only 12 points.

ps Twin towers baby. Which is great. No longer just about Kyrie.
pps Critical means that it is or must be critically important. And fundamental means that it affects everything. (In short).

Looking at team stats thus far (which the mathematicians may make fun of me for), it looks like our opponents are rebounding well, shooting 3s well, shooting 2s very poorly, and turning the ball over like high schoolers. 

Meanwhile, we are protecting the ball well and getting a lot of 3PAs but getting the second fewest FTs of any team in the league.
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
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#8
Ya, I can't say it strong enough on what a perfect combo Lively/Gafford are. For those wanting to deal Gafford or think this can't work, look at the 80s Pacers. Smits and the Davis brothers rotated almost exclusively at the 5, with A.Davis playing some PF.

No roster in the NBA has this currently.
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#9
(10-30-2024, 10:42 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: The game against the Suns, no one could buy a bucket outside.

I didn't watch that game but yes. When the twin towers are closed down inside then the outside game must work. Shots must fall. 

One positive thing with this Mavs team, especially compared to the Mavs teams in years prior is that there are now much better and stronger options for both inside and outside games. Not every team can close the Mavs' inside game. And those that try and that can do that will struggle to also close down the outside game. Needless to say, Mavs are now a strong team with both a well-establish and prominent inside and outside game.
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#10
(10-30-2024, 11:25 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Loved to see both centers sprint down the floor.

I think that an interesting and perhaps important question is how many of the buckets Lively and Gafford score in particular games come from transition-like situations as opposed to pick-and-roll type stuff. 
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#11
(10-30-2024, 02:12 PM)fifteenth Wrote: I love our centers. They're super important. I'm not sure that their scoring output is a nightly "critical and fundamental." The Mavs have a lot of players who can score. I'll agree that their general play is critical.

The point made in the opening post is about the balance of things and not to say that Gafford and Lively are somehow more important than Luka, Kyrie, Klay and others on the outside. Whether the inside game via Lively and/or Gafford works against a particular team fundamentally and critically affects how Luka, Kyrie, Klay and others on the outside can and must play. Such things limit and open outside options and opportunities. They make things different. Easier or more difficult. That's the point behind the opening post.

Consider what Luka says here which was after the Suns game:

https://youtu.be/ZgyzM9Nqh4A?t=54

"Different covers. Different teams are gonna give us... Sometimes they're gonna take away the lob. But then there are more layups for me." But sometimes teams strongly collapse into the paint so that Luka has to dish it to the outside. How Mavs play depends upon what different teams give them. When a team cannot protect the paint then there are lobs. When the teams protect the paint very well then other things become more important. There are other options for Luka to score and/or more outside 3-point options that must be used and converted. It's about the balance of those things.
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#12
(10-30-2024, 12:57 PM)Smitty Wrote: I've listened to a few of the local podcast recently and I really hope we don't let this 'Lively is better than Gafford and should be starting' argument get to the national media level because then the narrative will inevitably change. I think it's fair to say that Lively is better but it doesn't have to be at the expense of Gafford if that makes sense. Both are good. Both are capable starters.

My personal opinion, Gafford starting makes sense from a coaching standpoint in that Gafford is slightly inferior to Lively and therefore plays most of his minutes with starters (Luka in particular for the natural "Luka bump") and that Lively doesn't necessarily need the "Luka bump". Ultimately, if Lively gets more minutes and more opportunities to close then I don't care about which one starts.

Bottom line, I like to think of them as a tandem, Twin Towers, as LukaMagic dubbed them.

Eventually Lively will be too good to come off the bench.  Although, I think we will continue to see Lively get more minutes and closing most games, so it is a nice setup now.   At this stage, I think Lively is fine with whatever.   Just from some previous comments from Gafford, I gather he is more thin skinned and you really need to make sure he doesn't get down.   So removing him from the starting spot could be rough on his psyche.  So as long as they continue their trend from last year, I am fine with Gafford being the starter.   There will be a time when Lively makes this decision for you though.   Probably sooner than later.
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#13
I think that which center starts at the moment is about managing lineups, not about who is better. I don't think folks worried about Lively not starting quite get that.
Not very astute ^^^^
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#14
Another loss (vs. Houston) and another game in which Lively and Gafford combined for just 12 points.
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#15
Here is a quick look at the last year's playoff run by the Mavs. During last year's playoffs Lively and Gafford have both played in 21 games. Lively missed one game vs Minnesota. 

Lively and Gafford combined for an average of 18.9 points IN MAVS PLAYOFF WINS.
While they combined for an average of just 13 points IN MAVS PLAYOFF LOSSES.

Another interesting stat from last year's playoffs is that whenever Lively and Gafford combined for at least 20 points Mavericks did not lose. There were 8 such games. Given last year's playoff performance and given the start of this season, it seems fair to say that Mavericks are pretty unbeatable if Lively and Gafford combine for 20 points.
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#16
(10-30-2024, 02:12 PM)fifteenth Wrote: I love our centers. They're super important. I'm not sure that their scoring output is a nightly "critical and fundamental." The Mavs have a lot of players who can score. I'll agree that their general play is critical.

I don't disagree with what you wrote here. And Mavs backcourt is now certainly even stronger with the addition of Klay Thompson. But the numbers from last year's playoffs and from so far this season do appear to suggest that Lively and Gafford are critically important indeed.

Perhaps something like this. Mavs can sure win when Lively and Gafford do not put up strong numbers. But perhaps Mavs become or get close to becoming unbeatable when they do.
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#17
I think our centers need to get 20 PPG for us to be at our best. I don't think we will be highly successful in games where they combine for 10-15 PPG. Everything is clicking when those guys get 20 plus so there is something to it imo.
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#18
(11-01-2024, 06:39 AM)LukaMagic Wrote: Here is a quick look at the last year's playoff run by the Mavs. During last year's playoffs Lively and Gafford have both played in 21 games. Lively missed one game vs Minnesota. 

Lively and Gafford combined for an average of 18.9 points IN MAVS PLAYOFF WINS.
While they combined for an average of just 13 points IN MAVS PLAYOFF LOSSES.

Another interesting stat from last year's playoffs is that whenever Lively and Gafford combined for at least 20 points Mavericks did not lose. There were 8 such games. Given last year's playoff performance and given the start of this season, it seems fair to say that Mavericks are pretty unbeatable if Lively and Gafford combine for 20 points.

Good observation!

Correlation is not causation, though. I'm interested in why we see the variance. Is it due to competitive level? Game to game officiating differences? Changes in defensive strategies? Just an 'off' game for one or both? Maybe some of our advanced stats guys have some insight?

I guess I'm trying to see if DAL needs to focus on getting the 5 spot going early to collapse the defense and open up the perimeter a bit. But I'm no expert and haven't stayed at a HI Express recently.
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#19
From I. Franko's observation:

Dončić’s inability to bend opposing defenses to the level we’re used to seeing is a big reason why the Mavericks currently sit at an unexpected 16th in offensive rating after five games.

The comment was related to an observation that currently Kyrie is carrying the team early in games with Luka starting to contribute in the 2nd half, kind of the opposite of last year. 

Hopefully Luka realizes that training camp is over, score it kept for the full 48 minutes and these games count at the end of the season. (yep, I realize that's pretty snarky)
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