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Game 4: Dallas Mavericks (2-1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1)
(10-30-2024, 11:29 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: . . .  Gobert gives you some issues as well, but they really struggle on defense when he is out.

Looks that way to me too. But are our eyes correct? Minny minus 8 with Gobert on the court in a 6-point loss. Just not sure he’s anything more than a dinosaur center making occasionally dominant plays with his size but hurting team basketball on both ends.
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
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(10-30-2024, 11:33 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: I saw this on redditt.  Now making any kind of judgements over 4 games (with some new personnel)  may be  meaningless, but thought I would share.
**************************
only 4 games in, which is a small sample size, but it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone. Even last year, when they started 2-2 with some awful losses to the Raptors and Hawks, through four games they were already the best defensive team in basketball.

The defense was always going to regress a little bit with the changes in personnel-- and it does seem increasingly clear now that the size/defensive prowess lost in Slow Mo and KAT was a big deal-- but even the good defensive personnel this team does still have seem to be underperforming compared to last season. Rudy has looked solid, but by the eye test, none of NAW, Ant, or Jaden have been as effective at the point of attack. Some of our lineups (thinking specifically about the Randle/Reid backcourt) are getting absolutely abused defensively and on the glass, and I suspect that is a big part in driving some of these numbers, although even the starting lineup has a defensive rating of 111.3, which would still just be 13th in the league.

It seems that the change in offensive philosophy, which I think we can all agree is a great change, has come at the expense of the defense.

Last season, they ranked:

1st in defensive rating,

1st in points allowed,

2nd in points allowed in the paint,

5th in defense rebounding,

4th in opponent second chance points,

6th in steals,

5th in blocks.

This season, through 4 games:

13th in defensive rating,

13th in points allowed,

28th (!!!!!) in points allowed in the paint,

12th in defensive rebounding,

16th in opponent second chance points,

28th in steals,

28th in blocks.

It's early. 4 games is a tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel in the last few weeks. It's also worth noting other defensively elite teams from last year, including the Celtics, Magic, and Heat, also look like they've taken a step back. But this is an absolutely striking drop in defensive performance for a team that has retained arguably their 4 most valuable defensive players and a team whose clear strength was being a defensively elite team.

These numbers will regress, I don't think it will be this bad all season. But 13th in defense with some absolutely fatal flaws in the paint-- no matter how good the offense can be (which to be clear, so far, it is just slightly above average)-- is simply not going to cut it.

@ Lakers (gave up 110)
@ Sacto (115)
vs Toronto (102)
vs Mavs (120)

Not bad imho. Wait till they play Portland 3 times between 11/8 and 11/13 (yes, 3 times in 6 days), then recalculate. Things will look much different.
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
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(10-30-2024, 11:33 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: I saw this on redditt.  Now making any kind of judgements over 4 games (with some new personnel)  may be  meaningless, but thought I would share.
**************************
only 4 games in, which is a small sample size, but it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone. Even last year, when they started 2-2 with some awful losses to the Raptors and Hawks, through four games they were already the best defensive team in basketball.

The defense was always going to regress a little bit with the changes in personnel-- and it does seem increasingly clear now that the size/defensive prowess lost in Slow Mo and KAT was a big deal-- but even the good defensive personnel this team does still have seem to be underperforming compared to last season. Rudy has looked solid, but by the eye test, none of NAW, Ant, or Jaden have been as effective at the point of attack. Some of our lineups (thinking specifically about the Randle/Reid backcourt) are getting absolutely abused defensively and on the glass, and I suspect that is a big part in driving some of these numbers, although even the starting lineup has a defensive rating of 111.3, which would still just be 13th in the league.

It seems that the change in offensive philosophy, which I think we can all agree is a great change, has come at the expense of the defense.

Last season, they ranked:

1st in defensive rating,

1st in points allowed,

2nd in points allowed in the paint,

5th in defense rebounding,

4th in opponent second chance points,

6th in steals,

5th in blocks.

This season, through 4 games:

13th in defensive rating,

13th in points allowed,

28th (!!!!!) in points allowed in the paint,

12th in defensive rebounding,

16th in opponent second chance points,

28th in steals,

28th in blocks.

It's early. 4 games is a tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel in the last few weeks. It's also worth noting other defensively elite teams from last year, including the Celtics, Magic, and Heat, also look like they've taken a step back. But this is an absolutely striking drop in defensive performance for a team that has retained arguably their 4 most valuable defensive players and a team whose clear strength was being a defensively elite team.

These numbers will regress, I don't think it will be this bad all season. But 13th in defense with some absolutely fatal flaws in the paint-- no matter how good the offense can be (which to be clear, so far, it is just slightly above average)-- is simply not going to cut it.

I'm not worried (yet). I think they're still searching for a rotation that balances everything (not in terms of who plays, but certainly in terms of when they play, and who they play alongside), and I've seen moments in which they've switched gears and shut down their opponents to gain an advantage. Not against the Suns, but certainly in the other three games. 

Something to keep an eye on though, I suppose.

EDIT: I'm a complete moron and didn't even realize this post was about the T-Wolves, sorry. I'll leave it here rather than erasing it so everyone knows I'm stupid.
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(10-30-2024, 03:46 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I'm not worried (yet). I think they're still searching for a rotation that balances everything (not in terms of who plays, but certainly in terms of when they play, and who they play alongside), and I've seen moments in which they've switched gears and shut down their opponents to gain an advantage. Not against the Suns, but certainly in the other three games. 

Something to keep an eye on though, I suppose.

EDIT: I'm a complete moron and didn't even realize this post was about the T-Wolves, sorry. I'll leave it here rather than erasing it so everyone knows I'm stupid.

Humility is good.
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(10-30-2024, 03:46 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I'm not worried (yet). I think they're still searching for a rotation that balances everything (not in terms of who plays, but certainly in terms of when they play, and who they play alongside), and I've seen moments in which they've switched gears and shut down their opponents to gain an advantage. Not against the Suns, but certainly in the other three games. 

Something to keep an eye on though, I suppose.

EDIT: I'm a complete moron and didn't even realize this post was about the T-Wolves, sorry. I'll leave it here rather than erasing it so everyone knows I'm stupid.

Oh my. Well, at least if I'm stupid, and also didn't realize that post was about the T-pups, I'm in good company.
Not very astute ^^^^
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lmao…
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Jason Timpf with another nail on the head analysis of a Dallas game. Very encouraging. 

https://youtu.be/kgjgP9R-xYY?si=EBIButhoYHIDTcNU
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(10-30-2024, 06:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Jason Timpf with another nail on the head analysis of a Dallas game. Very encouraging. 

https://youtu.be/kgjgP9R-xYY?si=EBIButhoYHIDTcNU

Good stuff, love hearing Lively described as "franchise altering talent."

Going from starting Javale to starting Lively has to be some kind of record for biggest positional talent turnaround in one season.
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(10-30-2024, 10:03 PM)Jmaciscool Wrote: Good stuff, love hearing Lively described as "franchise altering talent."

Going from starting Javale to starting Lively has to be some kind of record for biggest positional talent turnaround in one season.

Yeah, the secret is out on Lively. Hollinger had a great tweet about him during the game.

https://x.com/johnhollinger/status/1851433257134428283
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