(12-22-2019, 02:52 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: This is a testament on why odds are not a tool to gauge who is the probable winner. They change the odds based more on (I said moron, hehe) how people are betting than win probability. Esp after the line has been set and bets are being placed.
So yes, odds are first and foremost about generating bets.
But for Vegas they NEED to generate bets on BOTH sides of the line about equally so they don't lose money. So because of that a betting will end up correlating VERY close in most circumstances to the probability of an outcome. Of course there will be exceptions where public conception will be so strong on something that it will skew the bets away from the actual probablity. But I would say in most cases the betting line offers a pretty close glimpse (sort of by accident) of the probability of the outcome.