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A Few Thoughts on Mavs 118, Heat 122
#1
Well, Poopie

I was feeling very disappointed and let down that the Mavs didn't manage to pull this one out. I think I actually felt worse that they lost a couple of leads late in regulation and overtime than I would have if they had never quite caught up. 

But. They say there are no moral victories. Nevertheless, at the risk of being accused of Pollyannism, I am declaring one. 

Big picture. There is no way that this game, aside from the Luka injury, should leave us without encouragement about what this team is. And while Spo will take the win, I'm willing to bet that he walked away with a lot of healthy fear of and respect for the Mavs. 


Game Story

One minute and forty seconds into the game, Luka fell over, clutching his ankle. A replay showed him turning his ankle after stepping on Kendrick Nunn's foot. He hopped into the locker room, and the oxygen was sucked out of the arena. A hush fell over the room. A little later, the crowd learned that he was questionable to return. Then, that he would not return. Backbreaking news. 

Meanwhile, the Mavs crumpled, looking all at sea, like they didn't know what to do. The Heat scored at will from all parts of the court, while the Mavs couldn't buy a bucket. By the end of the first quarter, the score stood at 37-23. A buzzer-beating three from half court by KP ended the period on at least a bit of a high note. 

In the second quarter, the Mavs' malaise got worse, not better. Dallas broke out Barea. Then the zone. The crowd tried to add some energy. But nothing went right. The Mavericks trailed 73-50 at halftime. I imagine some fans of little faith turned off their televisions or left the arena in disgust. 

Rick said that he didn't have to say much at the halftime interval. The guys realized that they were being outplayed and outworked, and they had to do better. 

The Heat made the first few points in the third, but then the Mavs started chipping away, tightening up their defense and picking up their offense. They whittled the deficit to 9, but then went cold. A late surge had them take an 81-91 disadvantage into the fourth. 

Dallas continued their great performance in the fourth, eliminating the deficit and even building a 4-point lead twice. A Brunson layup at 1:08 had the Mavs in front by 4 points. Unfortunately, they ended regulation with three missed shots and a turnover, while the Heat had a layup and two free throws to tie the game and force overtime. 

In overtime, the boys in blue had another 4-point lead at 3:04, which shrank to one by 1:55. The team had a series of miscues to end the game with four missed shots, three intentional fouls, one untimely unfortunate foul, a turnover, and failure to secure the rebound after Butler's two missed free throws. Game over. 


Analytics

Statistics-wise, this game more or less came down to a 34-17 FTA advantage for the Heat, and poor two-point shooting by the Mavs, who completed only 22 of their 46 attempts in the paint. Along with poor end-game performance. 


Players

Hardaway stepped up in Luka's absence, playing 42 minutes and serving as the team's leading scorer with 28 points on 11-22 shooting, including six threes. They ended up going away from him, as he played the entire overtime period but got only one shot attempt. Not sure what the deal was. After the game, Hardaway told the press that he didn't think they had any excuses for the loss. 

KP played 40 minutes, and did not shoot well (7-21), but otherwise acquitted himself pretty respectably, putting 22 points and 14 rebounds on the board. I am thinking that the shooting is going to come around for him. And he is already looking good in other respects. There were a couple of DFS-KP connections that were grown-men plays. I was wondering after Luka went out if they would try to go to KP to be the go-to guy, as he was in New York, but that didn't seem to be the plan. They did create a number of opportunities for him, but they just didn't work out very often. He is still relatively fresh off his ACL return, and I think it's just a matter of time, assuming he can stay healthy. 

DFS (37 minutes) had 6 rebounds, but mainly took primary defensive duty on Jimmy Butler. He helped hold Jimmy to 8-22 shooting, although Butler had 12 FTAs. Dorian eventually fouled out in overtime. 

Brunson (34 minutes) was appointed by Rick to take primary point guard duty in Luka's absence. In general, he performed well. He had 18 points on reasonably efficient 7-16 shooting, along with 7 rebounds and 8 assists. He also made some very good plays, and looked like a short Dirk posting up a bigger player and fading away for a bucket. Rick said that he thought Jalen had played very well, and that, in Rick's mind, Brunson was the only option to lead the team after Luka went down and they looked at results from the first half. 

Having said that, it seemed to me that Brunson made some poor choices in both clutch situations. I don't think Rick would disagree with that, but he clearly didn't want to criticize Jalen to the press. Fair enough. If nothing else, now we know more about where Brunson is, as a second-year point guard. A bench guy who is capable of stepping up, but who isn't experienced enough, at this stage of the game to manage end-of-game situations. He'll learn. And the Mavs hopefully are not going to be leaning on him for that duty very many times. 

Maxi (30 minutes) had a good scoring night, with 17 points (7-9), and was on the floor during the stretch in regulation and for the entire overtime period. Powell (27 minutes) did not appear to be an especially good match up here, and played reserve minutes as a result. Although Maxi scored well, I think he was in for defensive reasons, with Dwight not quite able to serve as a stopper. The bench was instrumental in this contest, scoring 55 points and having two guys (Brunson and Maxi) playing starter minutes. 

Barea jumped in for 13 minutes and did yeoman's work in getting the squad on track. Rick said JJB got the crowd going, got his teammates going, put the ball in the basket, made plays, and had some good defensive action. The Puerto Rican was at his best as an irritant, getting under the Heats' skin, and baiting their young point guard into a couple of offensive fouls and a general state of frustration. He had 12 points, 5 assists, and no turnovers. 

Delon Wright put in an appearance (8 minutes), his first after his adductor strain. He was subbed in for Luka, but was struggling, and Rick pulled him in the first quarter.  


Remarks

I think this game is a good reality check, both with respect to positives and negatives. The team showed tremendous fight in a spectacular comeback, which they nearly pulled off without their best player. On the needs-improvement side, they clearly aren't where they need to be in terms of holding on to a lead in high-pressure, end-of-game situations. Although that might be different with Luka on the floor. Most importantly, they have to learn not to fall apart when they get punched in the mouth. I say this not to criticize -- rather, to identify what they can do to improve. 

In terms of refereeing, the FTA differential has to be at least examined. I thought there were a few dubious calls, myself, and the game was close enough that the officiating might have made a difference. Nevertheless, I think the Mavs' undoing was Luka's injury and the rest of the team's waiting too long to get their act together in response. 

Although I was definitely disappointed with what could be viewed as a win choked away, I came away being more optimistic in the big picture than I was before the match. Tbqh, I wouldn't have thought they could be competitive with the Heat without Luka, especially after the disastrous first half. 


Next. The Bucks, in Milwaukee, on Monday. Rick predicts that Luka will be out with his sprained ankle, although they have not finished their medical evaluation yet. So, we'll probably see what the "others" can put together, with foreknowledge that they will be without their young star. Who knows, they just might do us proud!
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#2
Giving up that rebound on the missed free throw was absolutely brutal and unacceptable. That was on KP as were all the missed shots resulting in numerous Miami possessions. Unless you shoot a ton of free throws, you just can’t miss at the the rate and volume that KP misses at and help your team. He’s got to get a lot better. If Adrian Peterson can come back from a horrible knee injury in nine months and lead the NFL in rushing, KP’s recovery at 20 months should be complete. He’s got to figure out how to make shots or quit taking ones he can’t.
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#3
Missed Ft rebound was not on KP ball bounced left side of run, Powell sat an watched the Rebound, Bam went through KP knocked ball away , if Powell attacks rebound from beginning it is his board.
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#4
Another good one from ML, you're spoiling us, man..

From my perspective all I would like to add is a world or two on coaching since I've reed some firerick indications in game thread.
RC did a good job as a crisis manager this time. He did not spend to many TO's in first half, he managed mentally reset the team in HT and with reinforced D and correct rotations put the team on wining road. Game plan was ok, just guys could not execute it in the clutch. It's young team, they will fo's such opportunities again till they'll learn.

And for the end, as Mavs are historically and traditionally not on the same page with the refs but this time mavs deserved exception. That was good win for MIA, but it would be epic for DAL. That would be good for the league, handicapped mavs, journalism and for all of us fans. We would have subject to masturbate for days if not more. We'll, I am speaking for myself on that Smile ..
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#5
Good stuff, ML.

For me, I think this is the gist of what we learned,  "I think this game is a good reality check, both with respect to positives and negatives. The team showed tremendous fight in a spectacular comeback, which they nearly pulled off without their best player. On the needs-improvement side, they clearly aren't where they need to be in terms of holding on to a lead in high-pressure, end-of-game situations...."

We came back from being down 20+ several days ago, but couldn't hold on for the win.  We just have to remember this is still a very young "team", that still has to learn what it takes to win under pressure at the close of games.  They'll eventually get there.  It takes time.

In terms of "nitty-gritty", I thought they sort of ran out of gas during the OT, and really slowed the pace, relative to the pace that got them back even (and even a small lead).  I thought, at the time, that JJ might have helped with that in OT,....but at least our young PG got that experience.  As you mentioned, I think Brunson made a couple of incorrect decisions, and he was walking the ball movement in OT.
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#6
(12-15-2019, 02:29 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: Giving up that rebound on the missed free throw was absolutely brutal and unacceptable.  That was on KP as were all the missed shots resulting in numerous Miami possessions. Unless you shoot a ton of free throws, you just can’t miss at the the rate and volume that KP misses at and help your team.  He’s got to get a lot better. If Adrian Peterson can come back from a horrible knee injury in nine months and lead the NFL in rushing, KP’s recovery at 20 months should be complete. He’s got to figure out how to make shots or quit taking ones he can’t.
-- Not boxing out after a missed free throw is unacceptable. I'm sure he wishes he had a mulligan on that. 

-- KP didn't shoot well, but he did score 22 points, including three triples, and he got to the line for 7 FTAs. He was the second leading scorer on the team. 

-- The Mavs got up ten more shots than the Heat. 

-- Adrian Peterson's situation is irrelevant to this. 

-- I didn't think KP was taking bad shots, in general. Brunson wasn't doing him many favors, dumping the ball off to him at the end of the shot clock.

-- KP helped the team in many ways. The coaching staff is trying to emphasize to him that his main role on the team is defense and rebounding, not scoring. He is doing what he has been asked to do. 

I see you put essentially this same post in several threads, so it appears that it is something you want to blow off some steam about. I am not as down on Porzee as you are, although I agree that he needs to be better. He already looks a lot better than he did at the beginning of the season. 

I am curious to see if they look to KP for more scoring, if Luka is going to be out for a substantial amount of time. I predict that they might make a tweak or two, but they will more or less stick to the plan. They are going to lose some games. The important thing is that they play well and continue to show progress.
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#7
My keys:
  • Luka's injury sucks, what else can you say. He's been playing so great, doesn't deserve it, but stuff happens in a 82-game season. Let's hope this a) isn't nagging and b) doesn't throw him off his rhythm. Others said this, but I agree this could be a season-altering event. If he misses extended time and then needs additional games to get back to where he was, we'll be fighting for the 8th spot in no time.
  • On the bright side: Now others have to step up. This could potentially even help down the road. KP is the first to mention obviously, but everyone has to take more responsibilities. It'll be interesting to see how the team competes without Luka, but I fear we might be happy now to get at least one win until Christmas. Just sucks.
  • As for the game itself. Just like against Sacramento I'm going to take the positives out of it and am encouraged by the fact that the team was able to overcome a 24-point deficit. Of course you don't want to fall behind by such a margin, and that's something we should monitor going forward.
Former: Psychology BSc. Sports coverage for @weltfussball and @sportde. Writer at @mavsmoneyball. Now: Web Dev, Mavs fan.
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Twitter: j0Shi_f
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#8
L2M report says Nunn should have been called for a foul on Brunson with 10 seconds left in overtime. Would have resulted in two free throws for Brunson.

Also, at 1:14, Maxi should have been called for a shooting foul on Bam. 

And at 1:09, Jones should have been called for a shooting foul on Brunson.
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#9
My takes:

1. KP can’t shoot while getting bumped. Miami bumped him or worse every time they could. Because NBA reffing is an "art," he can’t expect help until he "earns" it (by playing better or moving to LA).

2. Brunson subbed in as Luka lite. He went for 18/7/8 despite getting just 2 free throws. And he would’ve had 2 freebies to win it had the refs merely made the one call that the league has since admitted they blew. Any criticism of JB fails to appreciate the role he was asked to fill here. A role he was surprisingly capable of filling tonight, if not quite successfully. (His +14 on the night not a fluke.)

3. The Heat played a very physical game. Very physical. As if setting screens with a pulling lineman. They were rewarded (somehow) with twice the free throws that Dallas got. The ghost of Dwayne Wade was in attendance.

4. For a few late-first-quarter minutes, THJ looked like he was trying to fill Luka's shoes. It wasn’t pretty. (Neither were Wright's injury-excused efforts.) But after a perhaps-related stint on the bench, Hardaway returned to recent form, providing unforced shot making and tenacious defensive effort. His shooting touch (and Maxi's) turned a blowout into must-see TV. Reply stream for me, as I got to watch in person for the first time this season.

5. Bam Adebayo is little—speaking of the in-person view. That was the biggest surprise of the night to me. Much more obvious in person than on film. He’s Harrison Barnes sized. Dwight makes him look like a guard.
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#10
Is JJ on a strict minutes restriction still?
Otherwise not sure why he only played 13mins without Luka and considering how well he was playing.

Looking forward to seeing who steps up with Luka out for a while.
This could make of break KPs season, he will be getting a lot of opportunities and hopefully it will break him out of his shooting slump.

Brunson and Wright will have a major chance to prove they are starting quality players, if they both go nuts and improve their trade value 1 of them may be moving on to add a SF or big man.

It will be interesting to see if Jackson gets more minutes, Luka plays PG but still logs minutes with Brunson and Wright so some more SF may be there for Jackson to show he should be more of a rotation player.

If they can sneak 1-2 wins in the next 4 that will be big for the whole team confidence.
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#11
(12-15-2019, 11:06 AM)duboh7 Wrote: Good stuff, ML.

For me, I think this is the gist of what we learned,  "I think this game is a good reality check, both with respect to positives and negatives. The team showed tremendous fight in a spectacular comeback, which they nearly pulled off without their best player. On the needs-improvement side, they clearly aren't where they need to be in terms of holding on to a lead in high-pressure, end-of-game situations...."

We came back from being down 20+ several days ago, but couldn't hold on for the win.  We just have to remember this is still a very young "team", that still has to learn what it takes to win under pressure at the close of games.  They'll eventually get there.  It takes time.

In terms of "nitty-gritty", I thought they sort of ran out of gas during the OT, and really slowed the pace, relative to the pace that got them back even (and even a small lead).  I thought, at the time, that JJ might have helped with that in OT,....but at least our young PG got that experience.  As you mentioned, I think Brunson made a couple of incorrect decisions, and he was walking the ball movement in OT.
Yeah, even though I have taken a largely positive view, I have to admit that those closing minutes in regulation and overtime were just brutal, especially after they had played so well and gotten a lead. Poor decisions, terrible shots, turnovers, dumb fouls, standing around, not moving the ball, it was endless. Aaaargh. Even at that, they had several opportunities to seal the game, and just couldn't take advantage. Agree that a more experienced PG might have made the difference. 

I'm not sure what the deal was on Barea (I assume you're speaking of him, not Justin Jackson). Rick made a point of saying that he gave the team "everything that he could." I had the impression that maybe he couldn't go physically any more, but it was left ambiguous. 

Agree that improvement is inevitably going to take time. I think we're going to have to adjust our expectations, in terms of how we evaluate the team over the coming weeks. As much as I have enjoyed watching the team, I have never really bought into the idea that this roster was ready for a championship coronation this season, or was a role player or two away. Maybe that's why I feel like I am a little less disappointed than some others -- my expectations weren't that lofty in the first place. But for people who were optimistic that this was going to be a title year, the Luka injury must be devastating. A reminder that we were always one Luka injury away from being in danger of toppling down the table. We'll see who, if anyone, can step up!
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#12
(12-15-2019, 08:57 AM)LukTheShadow Wrote: Another good one from ML, you're spoiling us, man..

From my perspective all I would like to add is a world or two on coaching since I've reed some firerick indications in game thread.
RC did a good job as a crisis manager this time. He did not spend to many TO's in first half, he managed mentally reset the team in HT and with reinforced D and correct rotations put the team on wining road. Game plan was ok, just guys could not execute it in the clutch. It's young team, they will fo's such opportunities again till they'll learn.
Thanks, Luk.


Agree that Rick did a great job in the second half, and the players couldn't execute for the whole 29 minutes. 

A lot of people have criticized Rick from time to time for not playing young players. He went with a youngster here in Brunson, and might have gotten burned by it in the clutch. However, he may not have had a choice, since Wright was suffering with injury-related issues, and Barea had apparently already played as much as he could. So, in that case, I guess you just have to say "whatever," and move on.  

Rick will keep coaching them up on end-game situations. I think the bigger problem is tackling their tendency to get off to slow starts, not cope very well with physicality, and making decisions in the face of the unexpected. They'll get there. It might not be right away, though.
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#13
(12-15-2019, 04:12 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: L2M report says Nunn should have been called for a foul on Brunson with 10 seconds left in overtime. Would have resulted in two free throws for Brunson.

Also, at 1:14, Maxi should have been called for a shooting foul on Bam. 

And at 1:09, Jones should have been called for a shooting foul on Brunson.


Water under the bridge. L2M report, is useless.  What's the point of saying we blew some calls, after the team took the L, because of it ?  I understand it's suppose to make refs more accountable, to show them what they missed. Yet it continues to happen.
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#14
(12-16-2019, 12:48 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote:
(12-15-2019, 04:12 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: L2M report says Nunn should have been called for a foul on Brunson with 10 seconds left in overtime. Would have resulted in two free throws for Brunson.

Also, at 1:14, Maxi should have been called for a shooting foul on Bam. 

And at 1:09, Jones should have been called for a shooting foul on Brunson.


Water under the bridge. L2M report, is useless.  What's the point of saying we blew some calls,  after the team took the L, because of it ?  I understand it's suppose to make refs more accountable, to show them what they missed. Yet it continues to happen.
What's the point in putting murderers in prison? It doesn't bring the person back. Murders still happen.

HDK, a lot of people find these interesting, so I post them in the postgame threads in close games. It's not a statement on their social value. Chill.
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#15
Transparency can help with correcting mistakes for sure.
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#16
(12-15-2019, 05:14 PM)Jommybone Wrote: For a few late-first-quarter minutes, THJ looked like he was trying to fill Luka's shoes. It wasn’t pretty. (Neither were Wright's injury-excused efforts.) But after a perhaps-related stint on the bench, Hardaway returned to recent form, providing unforced shot making and tenacious defensive effort. His shooting touch (and Maxi's) turned a blowout into must-see TV. Reply stream for me, as I got to watch in person for the first time this season.
I thought it was interesting that THJ was the guy who "took over" as the scoring anchor. Not sure whether that was a coaching thing. It looked more like that was just how it fell out. Agree that he tried to do too much at first, but played that role well after he came back.
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#17
(12-16-2019, 12:48 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: Water under the bridge. L2M report, is useless.  What's the point of saying we blew some calls,  after the team took the L, because of it ?  I understand it's suppose to make refs more accountable, to show them what they missed. Yet it continues to happen.

(12-16-2019, 10:52 AM)fifteenth Wrote: Transparency can help with correcting mistakes for sure.


I agree with both that transparency can help fix mistakes, but I don't think the L2MR really offers transparency.

What the NBA (really all professional sports leagues) need, IMO, is an evaluation process of their individual officials that is in open view of the fans. 

It should include accuracy of calls and non-calls across all 48 minutes + OT, breakdowns of what calls they tend to make/miss, home/away splits, and per-team breakdowns. Most important is fans should know what penalties there are for poor performances, and what incentives they receive for good performances.
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#18
(12-16-2019, 12:13 PM)DrMav Wrote: I agree with both that transparency can help fix mistakes, but I don't think the L2MR really offers transparency.

What the NBA (really all professional sports leagues) need, IMO, is an evaluation process of their individual officials that is in open view of the fans. 

It should include accuracy of calls and non-calls across all 48 minutes + OT, breakdowns of what calls they tend to make/miss, home/away splits, and per-team breakdowns. Most important is fans should know what penalties there are for poor performances, and what incentives they receive for good performances.


Yeah, good stuff. An idea I like is Cuban's old idea of outsourcing officiating to a third party.
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#19
(12-16-2019, 12:28 PM)fifteenth Wrote: Yeah, good stuff. An idea I like is Cuban's old idea of outsourcing officiating to a third party.


Sounds like an excellent idea. I'm all for anything that puts the best product on the court even if that brings in another party, as long as there are methods to police their actions and I'd also like those reported on too.

Transparent and fair officiating is so vital when it comes to the game outcomes. It already cost our franchise along one title in 2006, and who knows if we would have even made it out of the first round in 2011 if the fact that Danny Crawford had made it his mission to screw us over hadn't become a national story.
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#20
(12-15-2019, 02:21 PM)j0Shi Wrote: My keys:
  • Luka's injury sucks, what else can you say. He's been playing so great, doesn't deserve it, but stuff happens in a 82-game season. Let's hope this a) isn't nagging and b) doesn't throw him off his rhythm. Others said this, but I agree this could be a season-altering event. If he misses extended time and then needs additional games to get back to where he was, we'll be fighting for the 8th spot in no time.
  • On the bright side: Now others have to step up. This could potentially even help down the road. KP is the first to mention obviously, but everyone has to take more responsibilities. It'll be interesting to see how the team competes without Luka, but I fear we might be happy now to get at least one win until Christmas. Just sucks.
  • As for the game itself. Just like against Sacramento I'm going to take the positives out of it and am encouraged by the fact that the team was able to overcome a 24-point deficit. Of course you don't want to fall behind by such a margin, and that's something we should monitor going forward.
I'm down with that.
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