Game 30: Dallas Mavericks (18-12) vs. Phoenix Suns (14-15)| 128-114 WIN!!!

[DanSchwartzgan]

well, i rather see Holmes for now. There is no reason to continue to play Kidd's favorite defensive duo of Tim and Powell together at the same time. The players that can cover for that duo aren't on the roster, or might not be on planet earth.

Not surprised Green on/off (+/-) looked awful if the majority of his mins is with that duo early on.

Kidd has every reason to give Holmes a shot and he hasn't.  There is nothing in the numbers in the little time we've seen him to indicate he's the answer.  At some point this is a repeat of the Wood saga.  We can blame Kidd for the player's inadequacy or we can move on and decide the player isn't who he used to be.  At least in the Wood saga there was the idea the team was trying to hold down his value.  No such motivation exists with Holmes.  In fact, quite the opposite.

I think you are right about the Green on/off numbers.  I'm not sure I can attribute the offensive decline to this, but defensively a close observer would note that Green doesn't get the help that other PnR defenders do.  The scheme appears to be to help on drives (or pre-rotate before drives ever start) and try to get back out to contest 3's.  But, when Josh is in (especially with THJ), it appears to be "Tim, please just try to find someone to guard and let Josh do the best he can".  The total lack of rim protection without Lively also contributes to this.

I think we've landed on the best starting lineup given the current roster (Luka, Kyrie, Exum, DJJ and Lively).  Besides health, I don't think we can ask much more from that group.  We will live or die in the playoffs on DJJ and Exum making open 3's.  The greatest opportunity for internal improvement is on the bench.  Green, THJ, GWill and all of the center candidate have been disappointing:

Green's numbers are down across the board.  The theory of Josh (or even what he used to be) would be very valuable here when one or two of Exum, Kyrie or Luka is sitting.  But it hasn't worked.  Just get him back to that guy who was in the 56th percentile for EPM last season (much higher before the first elbow injury) and you have a key element of your bench.

THJ needs to find his D again.  His D-EPM, D-BPM and DWS are all career worsts.  He's gone too far in embracing the all-O and no-D sixth man role.  This is the first full season in Dallas where he's been an On-Court negative.

GWill never was all-that.  He's been a middle of the pack guy by EPM the last two years in the low 50's.  This year it is 31 and the D-EPM of 15 is dramatically worse than his prior years of 73, 55, 82 and 80.  Hopefully he can bring that up against bench players.

We don't have an opportunity for internal growth at the five.  It is evident Powell has lost the verticality that once gave him an advantage offensively.  Like THJ, this is the first year he's been an On-Court negative since 2016-2017.  His D, what there was of it, has also seen a decline by most measures.  I've already addressed Holmes and I don't think Maxi is the answer either.  He was just awful to start the season.  But, this isn't new.  His net production (82games) has been in decline for a couple of years.  He was always a net negative compared to his direct opponent because of his lack of offensive production.  But, it was in the 3-5 point range.  Last year that doubled to 10 and this year it was 13 when he got hurt.  The idea of what Maxi used to be is sorely missed here.  I'm just not sure it still exists and even if he came back and showed us that guy again, I can't trust it will stay healthy for the playoffs.

The lineup is upside down with Exum/DJJ proving to be good and Green/GWill disappointing.  Green/GWill have a shot at turning that around and a good Green would allow Kidd to coax a little D from THJ as he could steal some of his minutes.  The theory of star guard running the show with Green/THJ/GWill makes great sense but hasn't worked yet:

THJ/Green lineups are -3.0
GWill/THJ lineups are -8.1
GWill/Green lineups are +5.0

But, look at what happens when these guys are paired with a shot blocker.

Lively/Green lineups are +3.4
Lively/GWill lineups are +4.8
Lively/THJ lineups are +1.5

Lively/Green/GWill lineups are +14.0
Lively/THJ/GWill lineups are +1.0

Adding someone to fill any of those three slots (and the PG slot) shouldn't be necessary.  But, the thing that would make this really work would be to provide some rim protection when Lively is sitting. PG/Green/THJ/GWill should be fantastic offensively, but they won't stop anyone without someone to stop the layup line.