Wood You Consider Spending Over the First Apron

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, here is what we know about the first apron (about $170mm) for the 23/24 season.  You are Hard Capped if you:

Use the non-TP MLE
Make a trade with > 10% trade spread
S&T an incoming player.

That makes the first apron the presumptive cap for the Mav’s UNLESS they can avoid doing any of those things.  The problem with avoiding all three is it is hard to imagine off-season upgrades that don’t either involve the MLE or a large trade package.

Quite often FG will talk about the MLE….OR…a Wood S&T.  It is hard to imagine the reasonable deal that allows for both.  But, if you didn’t use the MLE (the FA class is crap anyway) and could construct a deal that doesn’t exceed the 10% trade spread, $170mm is no longer your spending limit.  It is now $179.5mm.  The key is the flexibility of setting a Wood salary in an outgoing S&T if you can find a team that isn’t going to be over the first apron after the trade.

Keith Smith at Spotrac has Wood as the 4th most attractive FA at center.  I’ve seen various estimates elsewhere that he might be worth something in the $16mm-$17mm area.  All theoretical since so few teams can spend over the MLE (and many of those don’t need what Wood provides as they are bad because they are really bad at D).  So, a Wood S&T could be mutually beneficial to Wood and Dallas if we can find the right team.

We’ve spent a lot of time trying to design a deal for Allen.  Cleveland’s O is horrendous.  So is it’s TS%.  Wood could single handedly fix that.  He could start next to Mobley and either he or Mobley could play without the other (Mobley probably in closing lineups).  Depending on what it does with LaVert, Cleveland can take on salary in a trade AND use the MLE AND be well under the tax line.  We can mix and match all sorts of other things like Reggie and THJ and McGee and Okoru or Cedi, but at the core of all of this is Wood S&T for Allen and the Dallas 2027 (they aren’t giving up Allen without a big time asset coming back).

One benefit of such an approach would be that this can’t be done prior to 7/1.  So, Dallas can keep its pick.  A front court rotation of Allen/Powell with Maxi/Hendricks at PF is pretty darn strong.  If we have $179.5mm to spend, we don’t have to worry nearly as much about jettisoning salary in a draft day trade.  So, keeping #10 becomes much more likely if the rest of your summer is based around finding a deal for Wood and 2027.

[dirkfansince1998]

In your scenario the benefits cleary outweigh the costs. Mavs would fix their front court (short and longterm) in one offseason without giving up any of their young core pieces. Cannot imagine that they can find something as good or better if they stay under the first apron. So they aren´t really missing out (under the assumption that the Mavs can avoid a nuclear scenario where trade matches would be important...for example Kyrie asking for a trade).

[DanSchwartzgan]

In your scenario the benefits cleary outweigh the costs. Mavs would fix their front court (short and longterm) in one offseason without giving up any of their young core pieces. Cannot imagine that they can find something as good or better if they stay under the first apron. So they aren´t really missing out (under the assumption that the Mavs can avoid a nuclear scenario where trade matches would be important...for example Kyrie asking for a trade).

The good news is this deal is post 7/1, so you know where you stand with Kyrie by then.

If we are trying to maximize the here and now, the way I would approach it (if money were no object) is 

1. I would keep #10 assuming my scouts really liked the player and fit.  I would trade 2027, but only for a near all-star (note that Kyrie was basically a superstar level player...with warts...and he came for a future unprotected first and role players, so 2027 should bring even more).  Allen meets the criteria in my mind and you don't have to jack with him being a free agent for a while and he's probably available for the right price.

2. Since the FA class is garbage, I'd stay away from anything that hard capped me.  That makes the Wood S&T an important aspect of how I might improve the team, so I need to know there is a deal out there.

3. I'd actually try to hold onto Bertans and Reggie as they are the mechanism for getting back under the first apron next season while also extending Green.  It also keeps you from carrying the S/W cost for multiple years.

If I can end up with Allen/Hendricks/Green/Luka/Irving/Hardy/Maxi, I don't mind a single year above the first apron (or even above the second) if I have a path back below the next season.

If we assume Wood at $16mm, you can do Wood for Allen with no additional salary.  If we have to stay within 10% on a trade, you can do Wood/McGee for Allen (assume all of these include the 2027 pick).  If Cleveland wants THJ, you can do Wood/THJ for Allen/Okoru.  I suspect they'd rather do Wood/THJ for Allen/Osman, but that can be made up by adding about $400k of salary from Cleveland or Wood taking $15.6mm instead of $16mm.  All of these keep us under the second apron assuming Kyrie at $40mm and Powell at $7mm.

Let's say you can pull off the version that includes Cedi and THJ.  In addition to the top seven listed before, you have Reggie, Cedi and Bertans who are expiring contracts.  You don't have picks to add, but expiring contracts might be valuable at the TDL as teams maneuver to fix their cap sheet ahead of 23/25.  Here is what it looks like if the deal is Wood/THJ/2027 for Allen/Osman.

Allen/Powell/McGee
Maxi/Hendricks/Morris
Green/Cedi/Lawson
Luka/Reggie/Holiday
Irving/Hardy/

[ItsGoTime]

^Good stuff!

What about another angle? The hope would be that Cle wants THJ more than Wood. With that premise, THJ and 27 for Allen. I prefer it that way cause Bos has very little need for another minute needing G on the team. We then SnT Wood for SnT Williams. Bos perimeter defense is good enough to help Wood on D. He could be a good fit and we get Williams who would fit here really well. I’d prefer to keep Maxi coming off the bench if we’re gonna keep him. If not, Mem could use someone to round out their big rotation, Maxi fits that spot well too. Maxi and 2030 SRP for SnT Brooks.

Luka/Kyrie/Brooks/Williams/Allen
Hardy/Green/Bullock/Hendricks/Powell 

That is a stout team.

[DanSchwartzgan]

^Good stuff!

What about another angle? The hope would be that Cle wants THJ more than Wood. With that premise, THJ and 27 for Allen. I prefer it that way cause Bos has very little need for another minute needing G on the team. We then SnT Wood for SnT Williams. Bos perimeter defense is good enough to help Wood on D. He could be a good fit and we get Williams who would fit here really well. I’d prefer to keep Maxi coming off the bench if we’re gonna keep him. If not, Mem could use someone to round out their big rotation, Maxi fits that spot well too. Maxi and 2030 SRP for SnT Brooks.

Luka/Kyrie/Brooks/Williams/Allen
Hardy/Green/Bullock/Hendricks/Powell 

That is a stout team.

Thanks.  Are you envisioning all of that happening with Dallas staying under the first apron?  If so, great, but that isn't why I made this its own thread (and if Dallas isn't staying under the first apron, then the deals with Boston and Memphis aren't legal).  

I did this as a thread to concentrate on what it might look like to spend all you could this season while leaving yourself a path to get back under next season (whether Cuban would do this is a valid, but separate question).  Wood might create a path to maximizing what we have left after making trades., but it requires that we not bring back anyone in a S&T or have a trade match greater than 10% above our outgoing.  It also requires a trading partner who can stay under the first apron after such a deal.

Also, for the sake of clarity to the board, I wasn't trying to create just create a thread about Allen trades.  I saw Wood as valuable there because Cleveland is just awful at offense.  That isn't the case with Boston.  Additionally, can Boston even accept a S&T for Wood?  My guess would be no.  It might be interesting to see if anyone sees additional or better ways to use a Wood S&T.

[ItsGoTime]

Thanks.  Are you envisioning all of that happening with Dallas staying under the first apron?  If so, great, but that isn't why I made this its own thread (and if Dallas isn't staying under the first apron, then the deals with Boston and Memphis aren't legal).  

Ahhh, the return SnT. All these rules have me so confused. Why can’t they just make it simple?

---

Question? Is that SnT rule in effect this year or next? Or was it a part of the old CBA too?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ahhh, the return SnT. All these rules have me so confused. Why can’t they just make it simple?

---

Question? Is that SnT rule in effect this year or next? Or was it a part of the old CBA too?

I can’t tell you how many ‘good’ ideas I’ve had that have been scuttled by stupid little things like rules and math.

Yes, S&T as a hard cap trigger has been in place for a while.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Great work Dan! Would do this deal for either THJ or Wood and 2027 outgoing. Prefer Wood to maximize assets, obviously. THJ is still a useful player and is maybe swinging back to being slightly underrated? I suspect Cleveland would want something more for Allen. What kind of protections would we envision on the 2027, if any? Are there other strong suitors for Allen out there?

[loki]

1. I would keep #10 assuming my scouts really liked the player and fit.  I would trade 2027, but only for a near all-star (note that Kyrie was basically a superstar level player...with warts...and he came for a future unprotected first and role players, so 2027 should bring even more).  Allen meets the criteria in my mind and you don't have to jack with him being a free agent for a while and he's probably available for the right price.

I'm skeptical you can get that much for the 2027 pick. Kyrie's off-court issues and trade demand had massively tanked his value. It's hard to use that to gauge future trades. Look at the Jrue Holiday deal for example. Milwaukee had to give up 2 unprotected 1sts (5 and 7 years out) to get their near all-star level player.

If I'm Cleveland I just hold on to Allen. He's too good to move for a single pick 4 years out or a THJ/Wood type player.

I think Gafford is more the caliber of center the Mavs could land for the 2027 pick. Maybe lightly protect it and dump a few bad contracts while we're at it. Something like Bullock, McGee, 27 1st (top 4 prot) for Gafford.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

2027 can't be protected.

[loki]

2027 can't be protected.

It can depending on the protection. You can't turn it into the 2028 1st. Maybe into pick swaps? It is a little tricky since I don't think they have any 2nds to offer either.

[Jason Terry]

Hadn’t thought we would go over, but this is a compelling argument

In my mind Wood was always going to Charlotte

Cleveland would be ideal if it worked out that way. Maybe Toronto could be another Wood SnT destination? (If they trade Siakam)

This would be a good plan if we keep the 10th pick because Hendricks or Walker fell. If we don’t trade 10, our ways to add players narrows

[DanSchwartzgan]

Great work Dan! Would do this deal for either THJ or Wood and 2027 outgoing. Prefer Wood to maximize assets, obviously. THJ is still a useful player and is maybe swinging back to being slightly underrated? I suspect Cleveland would want something more for Allen. What kind of protections would we envision on the 2027, if any? Are there other strong suitors for Allen out there?

Probably unprotected.  Dallas can't carry that protection to 2028 because Brooklyn has their 2029.  I know there is a theory I've seen where you could very lightly protect the pick as long as it converts to something that doesn't violate the rule.  We've seen protections that keep going for a few years and then convert to two 2nds.  I can't recall that I've ever seen something go from Top 3 protected to basically nothing (or very little).  Hard to imagine a team waiting that long and having some chance of getting nothing.  The beauty of the Dallas 2027 is like the Laker distant picks last year.  There is that chance Dallas is rebuilding by then after Luka's gone.

I designed this to be Wood and THJ.  Two reasons...I want Allen and I view Wood/THJ/2027 as an overpay.  I don't want to give them a reason to say no.  Our offseason depends on a trade like this if we are keeping #10.  It doesn't have to be Allen, but there just aren't that many Wood fits.  Second, I like Cedi in the THJ role on this team.  He's enough of a secondary creator that we don't have to have another PG besides Luka and Irving in our playoff rotation.  You aren't paying him so much that you hate bringing him off the bench or hate shelving him some if Hardy breaks out.  But, he's not a total scrub and does some driving and some creation that THJ doesn't do.  Recall also that you have Reggie, Cedi and Bertans as expiring or semi-expiring contracts for trade of to get your financial house in order starting next summer.

[IamDougieFresh]

The thought of the “nobody wants Wood or he would have been traded at the deadline” crowd being exposed had me so euphoric that I almost missed you sneaking Dwight into the rotation once again. Well played sir.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Hadn’t thought we would go over, but this is a compelling argument

In my mind Wood was always going to Charlotte

Cleveland would be ideal if it worked out that way.  

Charlotte would be unfortunate.  Depending on what they spend on their own FA's, they might not have cap room.  But, they don't really have a non-FA (recall, no S&T's) who would be the kind of return and price as what we'd have with Allen.

Yes, they have a terrible offense that Wood would help.  But, they also have a terrible defense and Wood wouldn't help there.  I used to be all about Wood to Charlotte (for lack of an obvious alternative), and maybe that happens.  But, I like Cleveland better because they have a really strong defense.

[F Gump]

That's a good dose-of-reality reminder, Dougie.

Nobody wanted Wood at the deadline, even though the Mavs tried hard to move him. So it's probably a bit presumptive to think there will be this great demand for him in July, and that he will have teams eager to pay him over-MLE money (and trade good players for the opportunity), since he's still the same player.

But we can hope.

[The Jom]

That's a good dose-of-reality reminder, Dougie.

Nobody wanted Wood at the deadline, even though the Mavs tried hard to move him. So it's probably a bit presumptive to think there will be this great demand for him in July, and that he will have teams eager to pay him over-MLE money (and trade good players for the opportunity), since he's still the same player.

But we can hope.

If so, maybe Mavs keep him on a contract so good that he becomes a chip?

[chaparral]

This is a good thread and some great follow ups by the Dan and others.

I like Allen way better than Ayton. I like paying Kyrie less then Luka. I like keeping the 10th pick in this draft. I think a Wood S&T plus the Mavs 27 FRP for Allen is a steal. The poster explains the importins of keeping Bertans and Bullock. And I think the reason Powell gets 7mil is because the OP is "Spending over the 1st apron".

PS: Dan also has his "Summer of Schwartz" player in this deal he has liked for years.

[IamDougieFresh]

Now I am a dummy, but it seems possible that they could have agreed to a sign and trade with someone at the deadline.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
PS:  Dan also has his "Summer of Schwartz" player in this deal he has liked for years.

That's a good memory regarding Cedi.  I liked him back when he was a stash player.  I don't know whether to feel vindicated on that or not.  He's carved out a nice career as a 24 minute part time starter.  Pretty good for his draft position.  I was probably hoping for more back when I was talking him up.

Schwartz doesn't have much at the top of this draft class that I can see.  Cason Wallace and Darik Whitehead is about all I've found.  Duffy controls a number of players around where Dallas will draft including Whitmore, Walker, Black, Dick and Leonard Miller.  Dallas hasn't traditionally done much with Klutch players prior to Nico, but Hardy is a Klutch guy as are Lively and Clowney.

Free agents and trade targets who've gotten some discussion time around here and are Schwartz (Excel) guys include Collins, Poeltl, Middleton, Herro, Olynyk, Bagley, Nick Richards, Harrison Barnes, Bitadze, Naz Reid, Bey, Drew Eubanks, DFS and Okongwu.