Should we give Donnie credit?

[ItsGoTime]

Just trying to stop the derailment of mavsluvr's thread here, but there were a couple more posts that I felt needed a counter-point.

Dundalis wrote:

It doesn't matter that every FA was signed to a long term contract if you've done the math, which the Mavs FO certainly did. They were carefully constructed to ensure that despite the contracts they handed out, they still have likely a max slot in 2021. At this point they will have around 85 million projected salary for the start of the 21-22 season. The projected salary cap for next season is 117 million. If you project an increase from that for 21-22, they easily have a max slot.

Your whole premise on this is about filling out the roster. That ignores the planning that goes into identifying who the right players are (or type of player) to basically lock the team in for the forseeable future by giving up that future cap space and to give them flexibility to have time to target the player they want over the next few years. If they thought the players available weren't worth locking in, based on doing so effectively taking them out of the race to be players in a particularly future FA class if they have planned to do just that, then they don't make any further moves. It's as simple as that if you have that plan in place as a GM. Donnie clearly said at the end of last season, that this a league where it's all about star power. If they have the opportunity to acquire a third star, even if it means they have to be patient and wait a season or two, they would rather do that than fill out the roster with solid players, locking their roster in. You can find ways to acquire depth afterwards.

The Mavs are also 4th in the Western Conference with the best offense in league history without adding these starters you've mentioned. No process has been stymied whatsoever.

So the math was only available for those particular players, or contracts could have been given out with the total dollar value needed in mind? In all honesty, if KP has proven to be at least a star by '21, I'd like to officially state that a max FA is unnecessary and IMO I wouldn't even seek Giannis (not to mention he'll more than likely sign an extension squashing that dream like a bug anyway) or any other max player. 


We need better starting quality two-way role players at that point. Guys of the Ariza/OPJ/Covington ilk that show themselves in the coming 2 years (or were available in last offseason). Hustle and bang guys that do the dirty work so our stars can do what they do with greater ease. Guys that when given the ball, can make an impact offensively, but aren't a total focus of the offense. Sneaky guys (not unlike JJ) that will lull the defense into thinking they can relax on them, then show up under the basket for an easy 2 points. Guys who set strong picks and roll to the basket or pop to the 3 point line and get a wide open pass. Guys who don't get the credit they deserve, which in turn lowers their contract size.

You talk about the GM having a long term plan in place, yet fail to mention anything about whether or not that plan is possibly a good one. Are all GM's long term plans good in your mind? If it is good, do they all execute that long term plan well? Do we actually know the long term plan Donnie has? Is your guess better than mine? Is your thought process better than mine? To all of that, I say, maybe, but it's not very cut and dry.

We'll never know if the process was stymied at all. We do know that there are a lot of posters thinking that consolidating our bench for more specific skill sets and higher quality are being talked about. We just signed some of the guys being mentioned as trade assets this past offseason. I don't think that makes much of a case for giving Donnie credit.

I think one of the huge stories of the offseason is that it would have gone far differently if the FAs had known what Luka was going to be right now.

Maybe, but the history speaks pretty loudly about that when Dirk was here. Could be nothing, could be something. I guess time will tell. Either way, getting better players is always better "We like stars".

[Mavsfan12]

Just trying to stop the derailment of mavsluvr's thread here, but there were a couple more posts that I felt needed a counter-point.

Dundalis wrote:

It doesn't matter that every FA was signed to a long term contract if you've done the math, which the Mavs FO certainly did. They were carefully constructed to ensure that despite the contracts they handed out, they still have likely a max slot in 2021. At this point they will have around 85 million projected salary for the start of the 21-22 season. The projected salary cap for next season is 117 million. If you project an increase from that for 21-22, they easily have a max slot.

Your whole premise on this is about filling out the roster. That ignores the planning that goes into identifying who the right players are (or type of player) to basically lock the team in for the forseeable future by giving up that future cap space and to give them flexibility to have time to target the player they want over the next few years. If they thought the players available weren't worth locking in, based on doing so effectively taking them out of the race to be players in a particularly future FA class if they have planned to do just that, then they don't make any further moves. It's as simple as that if you have that plan in place as a GM. Donnie clearly said at the end of last season, that this a league where it's all about star power. If they have the opportunity to acquire a third star, even if it means they have to be patient and wait a season or two, they would rather do that than fill out the roster with solid players, locking their roster in. You can find ways to acquire depth afterwards.

The Mavs are also 4th in the Western Conference with the best offense in league history without adding these starters you've mentioned. No process has been stymied whatsoever.

Moved my reply to Dundalis to this thread:

I think you are on track here.  Its about 86M after picking up the Luka/Brunson options, and that does not include JJax's QO/caphold either.  But yes, it would not be difficult at all to get to max space - even assuming next year's cap.  Even if it was just short, the Mavs would have a few final year contracts that could be sent off very easily.  The team would look very much like it does today, but with room for a Max if we don't take on '21 contracts in the next 1.5 seasons until that fateful FA opens!  

86M in contracts includes:
Luka/DWarp/Brunson
Curry
DFS/Roby
KP/Maxi
DP

Throw in another 2-3M in capholds for min contracts, and that is the number.  Adding a max contract to that roster looks pretty dang good.  I assure you that the Mavs are not going to mess up that opportunity with just any move.  That roster screams for an elite wing or big.  Giannis fits in there like he was meant for it.  Haha.

[ItsGoTime]

Current usage rates for what would be proposed as 3 of our 5 starting guys:

Luka - 36%
KP - 25.3% (and this is without him showing what we believe he will)
Giannis - 37.4

Something would most definitely give in those numbers and we'd get a lesser version of the player that is most likely the odd man out (Probably KP since he doesn't handle the ball like the other two. Either that, or we'd get a lesser version of all of them.

One other thing about the cap space. Are the projected numbers including what I've read as anticipated at a 15% reduction for next year due to the China thing? I really don't know.

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even assuming next year's cap.

Is a 15% reduction not that big a deal? Or has the speculation softened on that number?

[Mavsfan12]

Current usage rates for what would be proposed as 3 of our 5 starting guys:

Luka - 36%
KP - 25.3% (and this is without him showing what we believe he will)
Giannis - 37.4

Something would most definitely give in those numbers and we'd get a lesser version of the player that is most likely the odd man out (Probably KP since he doesn't handle the ball like the other two. Either that, or we'd get a lesser version of all of them.

One other thing about the cap space. Are the projected numbers including what I've read as anticipated at a 15% reduction for next year due to the China thing? I really don't know.

A lot of the usage issues resolve themselves via rotations.  It wouldn't be the first time 3 high usage players played on the same team.  You would always have 1 of the 3, and often 2 of the 3 out there together.  With their complimentary skill sets, I am pretty sure they could figure it out!  Any more analysis on how that would work would pass over the pipe dream limit.  

As for projected cap space, it is anyone's guess at this point - they haven't actually released any new numbers.  I will just say this - If Giannis (or another coveted player) wanted to come here, the contracts we have on the books for 21 are neither large, or particularly "bad" by any stretch. I am sure that some would be viewed as assets at that point - short, and below market.  There are also the s/t possibilities.  The Mavs would only have one outstanding pick to send out ('23), so adding picks would be a possibility.  One of the reasons I think OPJ would be nice to pick up is as a S/T vehicle for that FA summer.  Or, as a potential target to resign if one of the larger fish don't bite or aren't available.  I think his fit with the Mavs would be sweet.  We would still need a big, but the market hasn't been kind to the giants.  I like our chances of finding a cheap bruiser in the MLE/BAE range more than an elite 2way wing.

[ItsGoTime]

A lot of the usage issues resolve themselves via rotations.  It wouldn't be the first time 3 high usage players played on the same team.  You would always have 1 of the 3, and often 2 of the 3 out there together.  With their complimentary skill sets, I am pretty sure they could figure it out!  Any more analysis on how that would work would pass over the pipe dream limit.

The Europeans are a different breed nowadays and they would probably work well with eachother, but that isn't the only avenue to championship contention and thus the reason for my countering as well as if we lose the '21 pipedream now (well, last offseason) and pick up players that are better suited to who we will face in the playoffs, or just the playoffs in general, we have the greater chance at going deep in the playoffs gaining the most valuable experience there is now.

I will just say this - If Giannis (or another coveted player) wanted to come here, the contracts we have on the books for 21 are neither large, or particularly "bad" by any stretch. I am sure that some would be viewed as assets at that point - short, and below market.  There are also the s/t possibilities.

All of these possibilities are still there if you sign better players this past offseason as long as you sign reasonable contracts. With the better players now, (at the time I was thinking) we for sure secure our playoff berth goal. With things as they are unfolding, having better players is just better.

[Magickian]

How close are the Mavs to their hard cap?

I am afraid the Mavs will be restricted to matching trades, and using the Trade Exception... Meaning the usual Multipliers may/likely not be available to make legal trades.

Cuban JUST said in some interview I saw, that we are indeed Hard Capped.

[khaled1987]

Doubt Giannis will come here even if he leaves the Bucks. He won't join the only other European player who competes with him on being the best in the league. That isn't who he is.
I think Toronto is more likely with Siakam and the Ujiri, may be GSW is an option too but unlikely.
I still maintain that I prefer to target Gobert if he doesn't extend, I think he will be the most gettable and will improve us massively especially in defense, while not sacrificing our offense that much.
I like the idea of "3rd star" on offense, but tbh offense isn't our biggest issue atm

[ItsGoTime]

I like the idea of "3rd star" on offense, but tbh offense isn't our biggest issue atm

If Luka is putting up a consistent and efficient 28 ppg and KP puts up around 25 ppg, the rest of the starters can be in the 12-15 range with good to great defense and hustle, then one 6th man scoring machine making about 18 ppg with the rest of the bench being what Donnie has been able to scramble to get then we're solid IMO.

[omahen]

I think Toronto is more likely with Siakam and the Ujiri, may be GSW is an option too but unlikely.

My scenario: New York pays a fortune to Ujiri to take the job. Giannis goes to New York to save the franchise.

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I like the idea of "3rd star" on offense, but tbh offense isn't our biggest issue atm

Atm! But how much of a reserve we really have if Luka drops to less efficient 22 ppg average? How will our offense look then?

[fifteenth]

Should we give Donnie credit?

If Donnie puts together a roster that plays well and wins games then I'll give him credit for building a roster that plays well and wins games.

[iolide]

I definitely don't see Giannis joining the Warriors. No way will another GM give the Warriors another shot at a 5 year champ window. 

That's a bigger pipedream than him coming to the Mavs, imo.

[LukTheShadow]

Should we give Donnie credit?

Yes!

[Magickian]

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=28137382

According to this podcast Donnie deserves 100% of the credit. He said he pounded his fists about Giannis and Cuban didnt listen due to going after Howard... so, this time when Donnie was pounding his fist(which Giannis and Luka were the only two prospects in ten years he has raved about) So the MBT listened this time. 

So yes... Donnie knew Luka was his man, and he deserves ALL the credit for us getting him.

[BigDirk41]

I don't understand the Giannis pipe dream. It will absolutely not happen. He's not that type of guy to make a super team. He also seems to be out of the Dirk mold as far as loyalty. I see him playing his entire career in Milwaukee. That being said if he were to leave, I still give zero chance that he comes here. I also don't understand why anyone that is a Mav's fan would want to stunt Luka's growth because that's exactly what would happen. Giannis is the best player in the world imo and Luka is near the top also but Giannis is ahead of him due to elite defense.

As far as Donnie, why wouldn't he get credit for this team? He got us Luka and KP while still having a solid team around them. Sure last off season could have gone much better, but he's still a great GM. Like others have said had anyone known Luka would make this jump in year two, several top free agents would have wanted to come here. This roster isn't finished out yet. It's not even close. Luka changed everyone's plans this season by dominating the league.

[donzingis38]

The fact that Donnie went all in on Luka, he deserves all the credit in the world. He basically made 3 GMs look stupid.

I was even prepared for a Smith Jr/Bamba duo since I didn't think we even had a shot at getting Luka.

Trading for him and KP erase whatever Donnie's done or hasn't done in the past.

I still remember when they announced that trade during the draft, I was like jumping for joy.

[Magickian]

I still remember when they announced that trade during the draft, I was like jumping for joy.

SAME! I had a few roommates (I am at University) and I was SCREAMING at the top of my lungs! Jumping up and down and kicking and punching the air! I was all in on him the entire year leading up to the draft and so many people said they wanted a big... Then the lottery screwed us, and I was so scared we wouldnt get him anymore. THEN during the draft before they even said WHO was in the trade or what teams?.... the MOMENT they announced a trade has been made, I was already screaming because I knew we got Luka!

[ItsGoTime]

Sure last off season could have gone much better,

This was the point of the original "credit" request, and the focal point in this thread. It started in the mavsluvr Mavs vs Lakers thread if you'd like to read the genesis of it to now.

[reckoner07]

I think it's more unlikely that Giannis will come here, with Luka now as one of the elite NBA players, given Giannis' personality and likely preferences to not super-team.  But the Mavs will keep that possibility alive - and they should. Sure, Giannis to the Mavs is unlikely - but what if, 18 months from now, Giannis decided that's what he wanted to do, play with Luka? This is unchartered territory - Luka is a 20-year old bona-fide Superstar, like a LeBron 20-year old, as far as the kind who can attract other superstars, to win a championship.  Nobody can read Giannis' mind - and even he has no idea how he'll feel 1.5 years from now. He's worried about playing basketball for the Bucks and winning a championship. Solely.

Nobody can say it won't happen.  Anyone can speculate, but it's just guessing, 2 years out, with no idea of how teams in the NBA will look...or who the top 5 or 10 superstars will be 2 years from now... or what it will take to put the team together to topple the other best team.  So... it is prudent of the Mavs to plan for the possibility of being able to create that space, in the event that the dream happens to play out.  A, because the Home Run is what you swing for in the NBA (Cuban 101), and B. because that money can be used in dozens of permutations other than just adding Giannis, if it doesn't work out.  Saying "forget Giannis" is just poor business-decision making.

[omahen]

But the Mavs will keep that possibility alive - and they should.

I just don't think that is smart. If a good opportunity to improve team appears NOW, Mavs should take it regardless of 2021 pipedreams. IF Giannis decides that he wants to go to Dallas in 2021, we can always find ways to clear the needed cap space, no matter what contracts we will have. Or do a SnT. The only way I would be waiting for 2021 would be if I had some informal assurance that Giannis would come.

[reckoner07]

But the Mavs will keep that possibility alive - and they should.

I just don't think that is smart. If a good opportunity to improve team appears NOW, Mavs should take it regardless of 2021 pipedreams. IF Giannis decides that he wants to go to Dallas in 2021, we can always find ways to clear the needed cap space, no matter what contracts we will have. Or do a SnT. The only way I would be waiting for 2021 would be if I had some informal assurance that Giannis would come.

I mean, they don't have to shut down 2021 by making good additions of shorter-term contracts. And if they find a strong long-term player that makes it worth passing on Giannis earlier than expected, then clearly they will.

Just calling it a pipedream, and saying it's not smart to consider that option, is not how organizations think. The complexities of different cap scenarios and the planning that they do must be mind-boggling. Cuban has always been huge on data and stats - I took a class from the IU stats professor who was doing Cuban's data work soon after he bought the team - and I can only imagine the depth of scenario analysis that goes on with their cap and roster-building.

It doesn't have to be much probability now to have option value for the future, when the Mavs have a prime asset to be one of the teams in contention. They will always be looking for opportunities to improve their team this season... and if there happens to come a point where a long-term contract decision comes into play where they have to weight that vs the value of the option on Giannis, then they will decide that the player is worth it (if it has gotten that far). I think we're more likely though to see short-term contracts through the '21 summer than deal that go past then, with in-season improvements.