12-01-2019, 11:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019, 11:25 PM by DanSchwartzgan.)
Thanks for the write up.
I noticed Carlisle experimenting again late in the game. He did something similar when we had a big lead against Houston (which I thought was ballsy). Tonight in the fourth before Luka left the game (as I recall), he had THJ run a play intended to result in a lob pass to Powell. He tried it again later (I think Luka was out by then). Neither connected. Something to keep an eye on. Luka and Powell rarely hook up in the way JJB and Powell used to.
It makes sense that Powell hasn't been his usually productive self. Luka gets WAY too deep in the lane for there to be any space for Powell to operate. But, its not like the team is suffering. The Mav's lead the league at 1.10 Points Per Possession on Pick and Rolls. Luka hits 1.31 PPP on runners out of PNR action and 1.51 PPP finishing at the rim on PNR's (which is good for the 98th percentile). All numbers come from this story: https://theathletic.com/1421181/2019/11/...ve-weapon/
I think the original thought was that someone other than THJ, a ball handler, would be starting and throwing lobs to Powell. I take it as a sign that Hardaway is cementing the spot that Carlisle is playing around in live action with THJ to Powell lobs (it is hard to simulate lobs in practice when everyone in the gym knows it is coming). Imagine what this looks like with Luka and KP drawing perimeter attention and Hardaway and Powell getting in on some PNR action. Powell is capable of similar efficiency to what Luka produces when he catches a good lob in space. The question is whether that is a skill Hardaway can master.
One other note...Loved seeing Jackson get more minutes. He's been really good when he gets a chance to play dating all the way back to the trade last season.
I was playing around with 538.com's RAPTOR rating system for the Mavs: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...r-ratings/
I won't pretend that I've spent any time evaluating their methodology, but found it interesting. Jackson looks like an offensive specialist off the bench. He's got the 3rd best offensive rating and is tied with Curry with BY FAR the worst defensive rating. Meanwhile Brunson is showing up nicely on the defensive front (largely on the strength of good on/off number), but is about average offensively.
It is hard to argue with what Carlisle is doing right now, but is seems to me that at some point we need to settle on a four man bench who will mostly play with some member of the starting lineup. Wright and Maxi are givens. Seems like right now Jackson, Seth and Brunson are splitting two spots. With DFS and THJ in the starting lineup, I like Jackson getting regular forward minutes off the bench. That leaves Curry and Brunson (O and D) battling for the other spot (again, assuming we ever settle into a 9 man regular season rotation). Neither has come close to wrapping up a spot, but right now Brunson's on court data is much better than Curry's.
I noticed Carlisle experimenting again late in the game. He did something similar when we had a big lead against Houston (which I thought was ballsy). Tonight in the fourth before Luka left the game (as I recall), he had THJ run a play intended to result in a lob pass to Powell. He tried it again later (I think Luka was out by then). Neither connected. Something to keep an eye on. Luka and Powell rarely hook up in the way JJB and Powell used to.
It makes sense that Powell hasn't been his usually productive self. Luka gets WAY too deep in the lane for there to be any space for Powell to operate. But, its not like the team is suffering. The Mav's lead the league at 1.10 Points Per Possession on Pick and Rolls. Luka hits 1.31 PPP on runners out of PNR action and 1.51 PPP finishing at the rim on PNR's (which is good for the 98th percentile). All numbers come from this story: https://theathletic.com/1421181/2019/11/...ve-weapon/
I think the original thought was that someone other than THJ, a ball handler, would be starting and throwing lobs to Powell. I take it as a sign that Hardaway is cementing the spot that Carlisle is playing around in live action with THJ to Powell lobs (it is hard to simulate lobs in practice when everyone in the gym knows it is coming). Imagine what this looks like with Luka and KP drawing perimeter attention and Hardaway and Powell getting in on some PNR action. Powell is capable of similar efficiency to what Luka produces when he catches a good lob in space. The question is whether that is a skill Hardaway can master.
One other note...Loved seeing Jackson get more minutes. He's been really good when he gets a chance to play dating all the way back to the trade last season.
I was playing around with 538.com's RAPTOR rating system for the Mavs: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...r-ratings/
I won't pretend that I've spent any time evaluating their methodology, but found it interesting. Jackson looks like an offensive specialist off the bench. He's got the 3rd best offensive rating and is tied with Curry with BY FAR the worst defensive rating. Meanwhile Brunson is showing up nicely on the defensive front (largely on the strength of good on/off number), but is about average offensively.
It is hard to argue with what Carlisle is doing right now, but is seems to me that at some point we need to settle on a four man bench who will mostly play with some member of the starting lineup. Wright and Maxi are givens. Seems like right now Jackson, Seth and Brunson are splitting two spots. With DFS and THJ in the starting lineup, I like Jackson getting regular forward minutes off the bench. That leaves Curry and Brunson (O and D) battling for the other spot (again, assuming we ever settle into a 9 man regular season rotation). Neither has come close to wrapping up a spot, but right now Brunson's on court data is much better than Curry's.