A Few Thoughts on Mavs 114, Lakers 100

[Dundalis]

None of our top targets went to lesser teams. If you have any examples I've overlooked please let me know. Otherwise see my post above where I noted that top FAs go to playoff caliber teams, which the Mavs were were FAR from last season.

Another example of an advantage in the pitch process, but not insurmountable. Are we sure all those "targets" you mentioned were actual Mavs targets? I'd contend that there is a chance Bogdanovic, Brogdan maybe even Favors (which wasn't a FA, but gettable none-the-less) were possibly ruled out. All we needed was 2 starter level guys to say yes (there were a TON of them in this largest FA crop ever). Does getting Favors in trade change the mind of Green (where he decides to say yes before Kawhi makes his decision as he said he was really close to saying yes anyway) or any of the others? None of this is provable, so I could be wrong, that's why I don't give praise for less-than performance, just like I'll do with any player on the team.

To be perfectly fair, I could see them playing the long game on this one, which isn't exciting to fans, but for a GM and owner who've been in the game so long and are comfortable in their positions, makes sense. They clearly had a singular target in mind (Kemba), with Wright as backup as the primary targets in FA. Failing that, they may have had a longer term outlook in mind. That being they weren't willing to spend what it would take to bring in any of the other mid tier guys that were even willing to consider Dallas, having likely scoped out contract requirements. They obviously understand that the player/s they choose to spend money on, could lock them in a spot once Luka starts his second contract. So obviously who they decide to use that money on is an important decision.

That longer term outlook being that they understand that there is no incentive for good/great players to want to join a 33 win team lead by a rookie Luka Doncic. There is however, significant incentive for a player to want to join an all star caliber Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis that is able to make the playoffs. There is even more incentive to want to join a playoff team lead by an MVP caliber Luka Doncic (which I would certainly not envisage anyone in the Mavs FO anticipating at this stage). And while this FA class is nothing like last season, it does have plenty of players that sit in that mid tier caliber of player you are saying we should have gone after last year. Though 2021 is more the class I think Donnie has really been eyeing the entire time. If they feel strongly about their chances of getting someone difference making that class (ahem, Greek Freek..), they are only going to bring in players that don't jeapordize their flexibility cap wise for that off season, which obviously limits their options. That would also give two seasons for Luka to dominate (which they probably thought it would take minimum for Luka to even approach the level at which he's currently playing), and KP to hopefully return to form, with some playoff runs giving max incentive to attract that third guy that takes them over the top. They know they can afford to wait for their guy/s, because the age of Luka and KP give them a pretty massive window to make sure they construct the best roster possible to have long term success. I don't think they were thinking that they need to get the last 1 or 2 pieces to try and finish the roster to contend ASAP. They are being more patient with it (which obviously as fans, we wanna put it all together right now).

All hypothetical of course, but Donnie is a very competent GM, so it's something that seems pretty feasible.

[Sigma4Life]

None of our top targets went to lesser teams. If you have any examples I've overlooked please let me know. Otherwise see my post above where I noted that top FAs go to playoff caliber teams, which the Mavs were were FAR from last season.

Another example of an advantage in the pitch process, but not insurmountable. Are we sure all those "targets" you mentioned were actual Mavs targets? I'd contend that there is a chance Bogdanovic, Brogdan maybe even Favors (which wasn't a FA, but gettable none-the-less) were possibly ruled out. All we needed was 2 starter level guys to say yes (there were a TON of them in this largest FA crop ever). Does getting Favors in trade change the mind of Green (where he decides to say yes before Kawhi makes his decision as he said he was really close to saying yes anyway) or any of the others? None of this is provable, so I could be wrong, that's why I don't give praise for less-than performance, just like I'll do with any player on the team.

To be perfectly fair, I could see them playing the long game on this one, which isn't exciting to fans, but for a GM and owner who've been in the game so long and are comfortable in their positions, makes sense. They clearly had a singular target in mind (Kemba), with Wright as backup as the primary targets in FA. Failing that, they may have had a longer term outlook in mind. That being they weren't willing to spend what it would take to bring in any of the other mid tier guys that were even willing to consider Dallas, having likely scoped out contract requirements. They obviously understand that the player/s they choose to spend money on, could lock them in a spot once Luka starts his second contract. So obviously who they decide to use that money on is an important decision.

That longer term outlook being that they understand that there is no incentive for good/great players to want to join a 33 win team lead by a rookie Luka Doncic. There is however, significant incentive for a player to want to join an all star caliber Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis that is able to make the playoffs. There is even more incentive to want to join a playoff team lead by an MVP caliber Luka Doncic (which I would certainly not envisage anyone in the Mavs FO anticipating at this stage). And while this FA class is nothing like last season, it does have plenty of players that sit in that mid tier caliber of player you are saying we should have gone after last year. Though 2021 is more the class I think Donnie has really been eyeing the entire time. If they feel strongly about their chances of getting someone difference making that class (ahem, Greek Freek..), they are only going to bring in players that don't jeapordize their flexibility cap wise for that off season, which obviously limits their options. That would also give two seasons for Luka to dominate (which they probably thought it would take minimum for Luka to even approach the level at which he's currently playing), and KP to hopefully return to form, with some playoff runs giving max incentive to attract that third guy that takes them over the top. They know they can afford to wait for their guy/s, because the age of Luka and KP give them a pretty massive window to make sure they construct the best roster possible to have long term success. I don't think they were thinking that they need to get the last 1 or 2 pieces to try and finish the roster to contend ASAP. They are being more patient with it (which obviously as fans, we wanna put it all together right now).

All hypothetical of course, but Donnie is a very competent GM, so it's something that seems pretty feasible.

Well thought out with lots of great points. +77

[Scott41theMavs]

It's not like Donnie can just pick players and force them to sign with the Mavs.

Not exactly in that way, but in every pitch made, there is a winner and quite a few losers. Sure, some of the destinations are favorable over others giving those places the advantage, but that is only 1 aspect of the pitch. I can't speak to specifics as I'm not in the room, all I can go on is track record and ours is not very good. We money whip people as our only go-to move, there were FAs that didn't get money whipped and went to lesser destination teams.

Agree with you on the history. I think one of the huge stories of the offseason is that it would have gone far differently if the FAs had known what Luka was going to be right now.

[Dahlsim]

 assuming we ever settle into a 9 man regular season rotation...

There is an alternative NBA school of thought that would say rather than settle into a 9 man rotation while the other 6 guys stay glued to the bench except in case of injures, play 12 of your guys based on game to game matchups. 

Carlisle over several years of Mavs coaching seemed to lean more in that direction with a "be ready" Mantra which means as a bench guy you might now play for a game or more then suddenly you'll be in the rotation for a game or more. 

It always was a bit frustrating to watch when some bench guy like say a Salah Mejri and many others the last few years would come in and have a great game or two and then find himself CD DNP the next game or 2.    
Not sure as you hint at that Carlisle is going to settle into a 9 man regular season rotation.  For the playoffs though it seems likely.

[mavsluvr]

 assuming we ever settle into a 9 man regular season rotation...

There is an alternative NBA school of thought that would say rather than settle into a 9 man rotation while the other 6 guys stay glued to the bench except in case of injures, play 12 of your guys based on game to game matchups. 

Carlisle over several years of Mavs coaching seemed to lean more in that direction with a "be ready" Mantra which means as a bench guy you might now play for a game or more then suddenly you'll be in the rotation for a game or more. 

It always was a bit frustrating to watch when some bench guy like say a Salah Mejri and many others the last few years would come in and have a great game or two and then find himself CD DNP the next game or 2.    
Not sure as you hint at that Carlisle is going to settle into a 9 man regular season rotation.  For the playoffs though it seems likely.

Agree that Carlisle is the epitome of the "be ready" coach in the regular season. Also in the playoffs, if he thinks the situation calls for it. We may or may not like it, but agree that it is honest to accept it as a legitimate philosophy. 

Among other things, Rick has said he thinks this way is better to keep everyone engaged, and to experiment with lineups for purposes of the playoffs. While acknowledging that fixed rotations have advantages, too.

[mavsluvr]

Enjoying these writeups, mavsluvr.

I missed the first half but was keeping up on gamecast. It was great to see us go on a big run primarily by playing good defense.

This team has some good team defenders, and a couple of good man defenders.

We've seen a lot of good chemistry on offense, now it looks like we're starting to get some chemistry going on the other end if the court.

Thanks, embellisher!

Glad you got to see the second half. If you could only see one half, you saw the right one!

Good observations!

[ItsGoTime]

That being they weren't willing to spend what it would take to bring in any of the other mid tier guys that were even willing to consider Dallas, having likely scoped out contract requirements. They obviously understand that the player/s they choose to spend money on, could lock them in a spot once Luka starts his second contract. So obviously who they decide to use that money on is an important decision.

Man, I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud here, but with the exception of Boban, every FA (and re-sign) they signed was a long term (beyond '21) contract. So I have a hard time believing this to be the case.

I don't think they were thinking that they need to get the last 1 or 2 pieces to try and finish the roster to contend ASAP. They are being more patient with it (which obviously as fans, we wanna put it all together right now).

I wasn't thinking getting 1 or 2 pieces put them into contention at the time either, I thought it would solidify their playoff berth/positioning. My point is getting better players is better or, filling in your starters before you get the bench mob up to snuff. If they had more solid starters right now with a lesser bench mob, I think next FA is so much easier to either find the fillers for the bench or decide who they got that doesn't fit and trade them out until they find the exact fit. That process was stymied IMO by a year cause they didn't get the starting quality guys in the roles needed. Of course, an in-season trade CAN change that and I hope it does, but as of now, to give Donnie credit for the work he did, I don't think is the right way to celebrate this win.

Also, to that point, I'm really sorry for derailing your after game report mavsluvr. I've said my peace, I'll not talk about this further unless it's in a more appropriate thread.

[Dundalis]

That being they weren't willing to spend what it would take to bring in any of the other mid tier guys that were even willing to consider Dallas, having likely scoped out contract requirements. They obviously understand that the player/s they choose to spend money on, could lock them in a spot once Luka starts his second contract. So obviously who they decide to use that money on is an important decision.

Man, I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud here, but with the exception of Boban, every FA (and re-sign) they signed was a long term (beyond '21) contract. So I have a hard time believing this to be the case.

I don't think they were thinking that they need to get the last 1 or 2 pieces to try and finish the roster to contend ASAP. They are being more patient with it (which obviously as fans, we wanna put it all together right now).

I wasn't thinking getting 1 or 2 pieces put them into contention at the time either, I thought it would solidify their playoff berth/positioning. My point is getting better players is better or, filling in your starters before you get the bench mob up to snuff. If they had more solid starters right now with a lesser bench mob, I think next FA is so much easier to either find the fillers for the bench or decide who they got that doesn't fit and trade them out until they find the exact fit. That process was stymied IMO by a year cause they didn't get the starting quality guys in the roles needed. Of course, an in-season trade CAN change that and I hope it does, but as of now, to give Donnie credit for the work he did, I don't think is the right way to celebrate this win.

Also, to that point, I'm really sorry for derailing your after game report mavsluvr. I've said my peace, I'll not talk about this further unless it's in a more appropriate thread.

It doesn't matter that every FA was signed to a long term contract if you've done the math, which the Mavs FO certainly did. They were carefully constructed to ensure that despite the contracts they handed out, they still have likely a max slot in 2021. At this point they will have around 85 million projected salary for the start of the 21-22 season. The projected salary cap for next season is 117 million. If you project an increase from that for 21-22, they easily have a max slot.

Your whole premise on this is about filling out the roster. That ignores the planning that goes into identifying who the right players are (or type of player) to basically lock the team in for the forseeable future by giving up that future cap space and to give them flexibility to have time to target the player they want over the next few years. If they thought the players available weren't worth locking in, based on doing so effectively taking them out of the race to be players in a particularly future FA class if they have planned to do just that, then they don't make any further moves. It's as simple as that if you have that plan in place as a GM. Donnie clearly said at the end of last season, that this a league where it's all about star power. If they have the opportunity to acquire a third star, even if it means they have to be patient and wait a season or two, they would rather do that than fill out the roster with solid players, locking their roster in. You can find ways to acquire depth afterwards.

The Mavs are also 4th in the Western Conference with the best offense in league history without adding these starters you've mentioned. No process has been stymied whatsoever.

[mavsluvr]

Also, to that point, I'm really sorry for derailing your after game report mavsluvr. I've said my peace, I'll not talk about this further unless it's in a more appropriate thread.

No problem, IGT. There were some interesting and thoughtful posts on the subject.

[Scott41theMavs]

That being they weren't willing to spend what it would take to bring in any of the other mid tier guys that were even willing to consider Dallas, having likely scoped out contract requirements. They obviously understand that the player/s they choose to spend money on, could lock them in a spot once Luka starts his second contract. So obviously who they decide to use that money on is an important decision.

Man, I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud here, but with the exception of Boban, every FA (and re-sign) they signed was a long term (beyond '21) contract. So I have a hard time believing this to be the case.

I don't think they were thinking that they need to get the last 1 or 2 pieces to try and finish the roster to contend ASAP. They are being more patient with it (which obviously as fans, we wanna put it all together right now).

I wasn't thinking getting 1 or 2 pieces put them into contention at the time either, I thought it would solidify their playoff berth/positioning. My point is getting better players is better or, filling in your starters before you get the bench mob up to snuff. If they had more solid starters right now with a lesser bench mob, I think next FA is so much easier to either find the fillers for the bench or decide who they got that doesn't fit and trade them out until they find the exact fit. That process was stymied IMO by a year cause they didn't get the starting quality guys in the roles needed. Of course, an in-season trade CAN change that and I hope it does, but as of now, to give Donnie credit for the work he did, I don't think is the right way to celebrate this win.

Also, to that point, I'm really sorry for derailing your after game report mavsluvr. I've said my peace, I'll not talk about this further unless it's in a more appropriate thread.

It doesn't matter that every FA was signed to a long term contract if you've done the math, which the Mavs FO certainly did. They were carefully constructed to ensure that despite the contracts they handed out, they still have likely a max slot in 2021. At this point they will have around 85 million projected salary for the start of the 21-22 season. The projected salary cap for next season is 117 million. If you project an increase from that for 21-22, they easily have a max slot.

Your whole premise on this is about filling out the roster. That ignores the planning that goes into identifying who the right players are (or type of player) to basically lock the team in for the forseeable future by giving up that future cap space and to give them flexibility to have time to target the player they want over the next few years. If they thought the players available weren't worth locking in, based on doing so effectively taking them out of the race to be players in a particularly future FA class if they have planned to do just that, then they don't make any further moves. It's as simple as that if you have that plan in place as a GM. Donnie clearly said at the end of last season, that this a league where it's all about star power. If they have the opportunity to acquire a third star, even if it means they have to be patient and wait a season or two, they would rather do that than fill out the roster with solid players, locking their roster in. You can find ways to acquire depth afterwards.

The Mavs are also 4th in the Western Conference with the best offense in league history without adding these starters you've mentioned. No process has been stymied whatsoever.

I don't really agree with all of this, but it was very impressively said.

[Benskix2]

I always presumed Cuban to be the pitch man in FA meetings.

[Sigma4Life]

This concept of owners and GMs making impressive pitches may be overrated. I think players want two things, money and rings, in that order. As they get older rings start to take precedence over money since NBA players make a lot as it is. It's not hard for a prospective FA look at a team roster and see if it has potential to win it all and if it contains players they like and want to play with.