Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

I've been thinking about this as I've watched the playoffs.   We don't need a third 'star'.  First, we have one already, he just has to mature.  Lively will be a Team USA center in the not too distant future.  Adding offense is really tricky.  I don't see any player who 'requires' the ball working here with Luka and Kyrie (unless they play mainly when one of them sits).  I also don't see how to upgrade a starting spot without sacrificing any D.  Playoff success requires putting defenders around Luka and Kyrie.  We have a delicate balance right now that works well.  

If I see a hole, it probably is that scoring sixth man who can create for himself and others, but can also play off the ball.  If you get a guy who can also play defense, you are talking about a star and we don't have the juice to get a star.  Instead, I like the fringe moves Nico has made.  I'd like to see one more of those.  Like almost everyone, I see THJ's expiring deal as the core piece that needs to be outgoing.  Unlike some, I don't have anyone else I'm dying to get rid of.

Here is my view of the roster:

Center (Lively, Gafford, Maxi):  

Don't change a thing.  This "bullpen" approach is working.  Lively is going to be a stud.  Gafford is/was critical to not being forced to overplay Maxi and to not being totally dependent on Lively avoiding rookie fouls (plus injury insurance).  Maxi is the critical diversifier.  Can we play 48 minutes of Rim Roller/Paint Protector - Yes.  Can we play 5-Out half a game or more if need be - Yes.  The C position is a strength.  Some have historically pushed a narrative that we have to play this way or that.  If you don't have a top 3-5 center what you HAVE to do is be able to play multiple ways.

Big Forward (PJ, Maxi, OMax):

Again, I'm really happy with this position.  I don't see a way to upgrade PJ without giving up too much in assets or giving up too much on the defensive end.  He works great around the other pieces.  Maxi's flexibility is also valuable here as you can retain size if you want in the non-PJ minutes.  Maxi is older and misses time every year.  I see OMax being the natural heir-apparent to Maxi as he slows down.

Defensive Wing (DJJ, Green, Exum):   

If your stars are Luka/Kyrie, you have to have someone like DJJ who can take the other team's top scorer.  I don't think he's easy to replace (especially in the playoffs).  In fact, I see keeping Jones Jr. as a critical element to any plan going forward.  As I hoped (and feared from a financial standpoint), he's been unbelievable through five games.  He's worth more than the TP MLE and I think it will require a discount on his part for him to sign here for that (I'll remind everyone that it wasn't that long ago that he signed a 2 year $19mm contract).  He came here with the idea of rebuilding value and he picked the perfect spot to do it.  As we see the playoffs unfold, these 'stoppers' who have 'some' offensive game are absolute musts in slowing down the best offensive players on the other team.

Green and Exum are very nice bench pieces who bring slightly different things.  I can see Green or Exum as a 5th Starter/Occasional Starter.  The team has had success with either in the starting lineup and it is really nice to have 7th/8th/9th man types who are good enough to be 5th man.  Green's "energy defender/rebounder who can hit a 3 and moves the ball and runs the floor" role off the bench is a really good role for him right now.  Exum is super valuable when Luka or Kyrie need a night off.  He was fantastic in the regular season and I suspect we've not heard the last of him in the playoffs.  LAC doesn't have a smallish quick guard to worry about, but some team will and Exum will be a better fit in a different series.  It is also nice to get some additional ball handling in the game at times.

Scoring - Guard/Wing (Luka, Irving.................Hardy):

I've left THJ out and tried to note the chasm between our stars and Hardy.  The roster just makes more sense when Hardaway is hurt/out.  Sadly, his contract kind of forces you to play him when he's healthy.  If only he could distribute or do something of value when his shot isn't falling.  I really wish he could do the things the Atlanta Bogdanovic does.  That would work very well here if Bogdanovic was willing to come off the bench at age 32 (I even like his 2 years plus a 3rd year TO contract).  Hopefully some team will value Hardaway's expiring deal (sadly, more likely at the TDL than in the summer).  

Hardy brings more to the table in terms of a diverse skill set than Hardaway.  He's just so young.  Is he good enough for a '6th man' role on a team with championship aspirations?  Maybe.  Or, does his youth give you the chance to bring in an older guy as 6th man.  The difference between Hardy as the heir-apparent to an older 6th man type and OMax as the heir-apparent to Maxi is Hardy's contract doesn't line up as nicely as OMax's contract.  Hardy is free in the summer of 2025 and it wouldn't shock me if Rich Paul tries to get him moved this summer to a spot with a better opportunity to show his stuff.  If one wants to advocate for keeping Hardy, one probably has to create a path for him to have a real role in 24/25.  I don't have a strong opinion either way.  I just don't think having Hardy, Green, THJ and Exum all basically competing for crumbs behind Luka and Kyrie is going to work for Hardy and his influential agent.
 
I haven't really started looking at specific names yet.  I'm just enjoying the games and spending much less time thinking about basketball.  I may pop back in occasionally as the playoffs progress and may spend some time thinking about team building strategy in June.  I think you kind of have to resolve the DJJ question before you can worry about adding something.  If he will sign for the TP MLE (2 years with PO on the second), then great.  You can start shopping for something else.  If it takes more, then you have to move salary.  And, if you lose him for nothing in free agency, then the mandate is to find another DJJ (probably through trade).  The list of candidates for what you need is just very different in my mind depending on whether you have DJJ or you don't.

Cheers everyone.

I agree with about every word here. It echoes what I was thinking, thanks for putting it into words!

The main thing is the idea that we DON'T need to add a star, but rather are better if we focus on the "lots of defense, hope they also are making shots" worker bees who do the little things - and whose price tag is also modest, as a result of the fact they aren't big scorers each game.

That brings us back to DJJ, just as you did.

One note about "moving salary" for DJJ, is that moving THJ to accomplish that is unlikely to add a huge amount of room. That's based on the assumption it's moving THJ with less salary coming back (in a one-for-one type swap) rather than trying to find someone to take him into their cap room, so you don't have to pay the price for a pure salary dump. But in a salary-match deal, that one-for-one will be limited to a $7.5M difference at best, and the difference is likely to be smaller.

Here's the practical point - if we assume THJ is sent in that sort of salary-reducing swap, and factor in the rest of the payroll vis-a-vis a hard cap at Apron 1, they probably can't get past about $9M as the limit they can pay DJJ, and it may be closer to $8M, numbers which are a good ways away from the big MLE. Getting to that assumes they're trading THJ for someone making about 10M like Caruso --- but if they are taking back someone $12M/$13M/$14M instead, their limit on what they can pay DJJ sinks back closer and closer to that TxMLE. 

Is it a futile quest? Maybe. Maybe not, though -- players with such limited offense are often cheaper than we expect, and there's also the fact he seems to have found a home here that he likes, so those can be helpful factors in somehow keeping him.

So I do wonder if the most attractive "DJJ solution" ends up being a TxMLE offer on a 1+1, an offer of all we have combined with an expression of wanting him here long term. Once you have your core of players, and it's all just a world of keeping the guys you have, raises and hard caps and so on are less of an issue, if you are willing to pay the tax cost itself.