04-09-2024, 04:24 AM
(04-09-2024, 02:46 AM)F Gump Wrote: The choices to accomplish what needs to be done (as I see it) are very limited. I agree that they need to find a path to DJJ. I do think, because he's a defense-only guy, he's probably not going to be nearly as expensive as we fear, and he might even strongly prefer staying since his past places have not worked out at all for him, so I'd want to take advantage of such a window of opportunity.
They could certainly put the TxMLE on the table as a 1+1, starting at 5.2M, and perhaps he would say yes, with a plan to be a FA again in a year and get a bigger deal with Early Bird rights. That almost certainly lands them over Apron 1, but also offers no hard cap and some flexibility.
But I'd rather lock him up for 3-4 years instead, which would mean expanding the MLE room by reducing spending elsewhere, so that you can pay him more and still be under Apron 1. The avenue to that is a trade where the Mavs trade more salary for less, without messing with the needed players to keep.
Your idea to package THJ-Green (total salary about $29M) could work that way, where you're only taking back about $21.5M or somewhat more (the limit in salary differential is 7.5M if neither team has cap room and both can stay under Apron 1), but I frankly don't want any of those players who have contracts in that price range. I looked at the list. Ugh. And more broadly, I am still a proponent of a team of MLE-ish players, more or less, as how you pay those rotation guys. That's one of the things I really liked about the trades for Gafford (13.4M next year) and PJW (15.5M next year), the fact that both are not going to cost much beyond a big MLE that should be about 12.9M.
So if in a trade I am PAYING for a guy (with a pick or talent), I want to pay for the rotation guy whose salary is in the 10-15M range, so that he will fit in that payroll plan.
One trade that fits that model would be THJ for Caruso. Caruso is paid ~10M, and he may be available as his contract is expiring (and CHI may fear losing him in a year). He's a 2-way player. And if you did that swap, on the money front you would then create room to offer DJJ a deal starting at about $8-9M, which I think might be plenty to get him to sign for several years, and allows you to stay below Apron 1.
Because it's a path to BOTH Caruso and DJJ, you can justify the risk of Caruso walking, and still offer a FRP. But Caruso is extension eligible for an extend-and trade, too. Doesn't he seem like a guy who would fit well on this team?
Bottom Line ---
(1) THJ + 2025 FRP (lightly protected) for Caruso. Extend Caruso. (The CBA limits on a Caruso extension would be a starting salary of about $14M, which I think is plenty and maybe even too much. That number or less keeps him in that useful price range - and although he would come with Bird rights for when his contract expires, I don't want role players who will be eating up $20M & up out of my available spending room.)
(2) Sign DJJ at 3 yrs 27M.
That's my preferred summer.
Caruso is certainly a model of a player that would fit for what Mavs need as a second guard. Of course a lot depends on how will Mavs do in the playoffs. If they have a deep run, playing around the edges is the most sound strategy. If not, than we might revisit the plan. Ideal blueprint for the guy on this position is an elite defender who can do stuff offensively. DJJ fits the bill for the defensive part, but falls short offensively. Exum is an above average defender (perhaps not elite) and a glue guy on offense. Some reliability concerns. Green is not really a good point of attack defender imho and he has his ups and downs offensively.
Mavs are by far the deepest at the second guard position. They have THJ, Green, Exum and DJJ with Hardy probably eager to get more playing time. When everyone is healthy, there is only some 80 minutes for all those guys (lets say 16 behind each of Luka and Kyrie and all 48 minutes of the SG spot). Even less in playoffs. It is nice to have some quality reserves, as Luka and Kyrie do miss games. In the first part of the season the minutes for everyone were coming from playing some weird four guard lineups. When everyone healthy, THJ minutes got down significantly, even with Green out. If you bring in a player like Caruso while keeping Green, Exum and Hardy, DJJ minutes are likely to be decreased, which could also decrease his willingness to give Mavs any kind of discount. On the other hand, paying close to MLE level money for a player that will play limited minutes, is also not so attractive imho.
My strategy would be to optmize the play-off rotation team. This means that I would want majority of salary cap for 8 or 9 players that will play most of playoff minutes available. It is nice to have a deep team, but those MLE level players are paid MLE level for a reason - they have weaknesses in their games and those weaknesses might get exposed hard in the playoffs. That is why I would prefer quality over quantity. The key is to find rotation players for the regular season from SRPs and vet min level guys. Basically the strategy of every top team (OKC the only exception, as majority of their team is still on rookie deals). I think three quality players are enough to cover the minutes behind Luka and Kyrie and man the SG spot (point of attack defender spot). Maximum four.
I think following will need answers before summer:
- Mavs need another capable offensive guy, especially for the minutes when one of Luka and Kyrie will not be playing. Is PJ that guy? Or can the role player collective provide enough offense in those minutes?
- no question Mavs need as good defenders as possible next to Luka and Kyrie. Is shooting around them good enough with guys like DJJ, Exum, non-shooting centers, PJ,... Those of them that have good percentage are low volume shooters. PJ is the only bigger volume shooter, but his accuracy hasn't been great. THJ is neither a great shooter nor a good defender. We can expect teams with good centers to put them on our weak shooters, taking out PnR and clog the paint.
- can our centers stay on court in the serious play-off environment? Several regular season games where opponent went small showed Mavs had issues. PnR is more or less gone in those cases. Can our centers punish smaller opponents either with offensive rebounding or exploiting size advantage? Can Mavs take opposing bigs out of the paint by forcing them to switch on Luka or Kyrie, even when they are not guarding our centers? Mavs defense depends a lot on Gafford and Lively being able to stay on court.
- Is Kidd the right coach to take this team all the way. Will he be able to adjust to all the tricks and schemes opposing coaches will present in playoff environment?