02-09-2024, 10:40 PM
I didn’t get to really opine on the trades yesterday as I was too busy after about 1:00. I didn’t finish reading the board until early this morning and even then haven’t been able to write more than a few words here and there. So, here goes…
All season I’ve been harping that you don’t bet a year of Kyrie’s prime on Maxi’s health and Lively’s ability to avoid foul trouble. A little nick here or an early 3rd foul there and before you know it, you’ve given away a playoff game. We aren’t good enough to do that. I’ve presumed we would add a good backup center to share the position. Once we saw the GWill experience past the first two weeks (and heard the rumors) I’ve also presumed we needed a starting PF to push some combination of Maxi/GWill/DJJ to the bench…or at least a 4/5 or 5/4 type to kill two birds with one stone.
One other thing I assumed was that we’d stay under the tax this season. It is kind of amazing that we found a way to add two players AND stayed under the tax this season AND managed to end up about $7mm under the first apron next year (with 12 players and a presumed contract for a 2024 second rounder…the cheapest possible minimum). The first apron may or may not be a barrier depending on whether we use some of the MLE now on a multi-year player (I like the Killian Hayes idea) and whether we use the TP-MLE or one of our TPE’s to bring in additional salary beyond a minimum or two on players 14 and 15 this summer. The financial maneuvering while moving off of guys who weren’t helping and retaining our youngsters is pretty amazing.
People who like the deals tend to point to players out and players in and conclude we won the trade(s). Right here, right now on the court…we did. People who don’t like the trade mostly don’t like the pick cost (or want to make conclusions based on bad numbers achieved on bad teams…remember Dinwiddie in a Dallas uniform). Many of the national folks have tended to lump in past sins with what we gave up Thursday and create kind of a macro-blunder scenario that combines all of our wheeling and dealing and concludes we gave up too much. Both are probably right. What they are doing is risky. But, sitting on our hands and waiting is risky too. If Luka leaves and we don’t control our drafts, we are screwed. If we hold onto picks and don’t build the roster we are also screwed. I applaud going for it and potentially being screwed more than I would have supported sitting on our hands and potentially being screwed.
I have to say, I admire the creativity this summer and Thursday. The Bullock deal converted a 2030 swap into FOUR 2nd rounders…and we still get to make a first round pick that year. Here, we gave up a 2028 swap for the first needed to get Gafford (and still get to make a pick in 20289 and gave a 2027 lightly protected pick for the player we wanted and two more second rounders. Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds. Note that I and others said if you want to make 2027 valuable it had to be lightly protected because it can’t be backed up by another first…exactly what they did. In two years of drafting, Nico/Lindsey have found value all over the board. As long as we have a pick…any pick…I’m OK if these guys are in charge. So, the pick equity is risky, but could also be worthless if we stay good and the players we got should help with that for at least the next three years.
So now to the players…I like Gafford. I wanted him when he was in Chicago. He makes a lot for a backup center, but we need one of the best backups in the league at this stage of Lively’s development. He is a mini-me clone of what Lively does and we basically die when Lively isn’t in (as I said in another post, without Lively or Powell in the game, our D drops 10 points). I’m happy with this. I’ve seen enough of him over the years that I’m not falling for the comparisons to every bad center we’ve ever had or even pursued. Has he hunted blocks on a bad team? Maybe. Should his +/- be better? Maybe. Do I need him to be a star? No. I need him to erase some/all of the gap in effectiveness we have when Lively goes out. I don’t need all 10 points of that gap. 7-8 will be just fine because we are that good when Lively plays.
I’ve also been fantasy trading for PJ for a long time. Jack of all trades and master of none. We complain a lot here that everyone is a specialist. Well, we now have Green and PJ who aren’t great at anything (well Josh is pretty efficient on low volume), but who can do a little of everything. Imagine doubling Luka now. Lively, Josh and PJ are all FANTASTIC short roll players. PJ can pass. He can drive and finish. He has the push shot in the lane. He is night and day better than GWill in this situation. We will kill teams who try it with that group in the game. He’s a better rebounder than we’ve had at the position and has good length. I think you look at a players body or work more than the “yeah, but he’s shooting only X% (on a really crappy team with no spacing) in (a few) games this season” thing that we hear a lot. I really don’t know how you stop our starters. There is a chance all five could average double figures (and THJ). The mobility and skill compared to outgoing GWill is substantial.
PJ pushing Maxi and DJJ to the bench (with Gafford, THJ and Exum) puts those players in better positions to succeed more. I like our bench. We are in a much better position to hide THJ’s defensive failings now. Are there better PF’s out there? Absolutely. Were they available for what we had to offer? No. Should we have waited…I don’t think so. Did we pay too much? Time will tell, but the cost was the cost and we didn’t give up the kids and at least know we won’t give up a top two if it all goes to crap.
I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer. I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round). THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility. We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over. I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys. I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive. If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed. We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.
All season I’ve been harping that you don’t bet a year of Kyrie’s prime on Maxi’s health and Lively’s ability to avoid foul trouble. A little nick here or an early 3rd foul there and before you know it, you’ve given away a playoff game. We aren’t good enough to do that. I’ve presumed we would add a good backup center to share the position. Once we saw the GWill experience past the first two weeks (and heard the rumors) I’ve also presumed we needed a starting PF to push some combination of Maxi/GWill/DJJ to the bench…or at least a 4/5 or 5/4 type to kill two birds with one stone.
One other thing I assumed was that we’d stay under the tax this season. It is kind of amazing that we found a way to add two players AND stayed under the tax this season AND managed to end up about $7mm under the first apron next year (with 12 players and a presumed contract for a 2024 second rounder…the cheapest possible minimum). The first apron may or may not be a barrier depending on whether we use some of the MLE now on a multi-year player (I like the Killian Hayes idea) and whether we use the TP-MLE or one of our TPE’s to bring in additional salary beyond a minimum or two on players 14 and 15 this summer. The financial maneuvering while moving off of guys who weren’t helping and retaining our youngsters is pretty amazing.
People who like the deals tend to point to players out and players in and conclude we won the trade(s). Right here, right now on the court…we did. People who don’t like the trade mostly don’t like the pick cost (or want to make conclusions based on bad numbers achieved on bad teams…remember Dinwiddie in a Dallas uniform). Many of the national folks have tended to lump in past sins with what we gave up Thursday and create kind of a macro-blunder scenario that combines all of our wheeling and dealing and concludes we gave up too much. Both are probably right. What they are doing is risky. But, sitting on our hands and waiting is risky too. If Luka leaves and we don’t control our drafts, we are screwed. If we hold onto picks and don’t build the roster we are also screwed. I applaud going for it and potentially being screwed more than I would have supported sitting on our hands and potentially being screwed.
I have to say, I admire the creativity this summer and Thursday. The Bullock deal converted a 2030 swap into FOUR 2nd rounders…and we still get to make a first round pick that year. Here, we gave up a 2028 swap for the first needed to get Gafford (and still get to make a pick in 20289 and gave a 2027 lightly protected pick for the player we wanted and two more second rounders. Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds. Note that I and others said if you want to make 2027 valuable it had to be lightly protected because it can’t be backed up by another first…exactly what they did. In two years of drafting, Nico/Lindsey have found value all over the board. As long as we have a pick…any pick…I’m OK if these guys are in charge. So, the pick equity is risky, but could also be worthless if we stay good and the players we got should help with that for at least the next three years.
So now to the players…I like Gafford. I wanted him when he was in Chicago. He makes a lot for a backup center, but we need one of the best backups in the league at this stage of Lively’s development. He is a mini-me clone of what Lively does and we basically die when Lively isn’t in (as I said in another post, without Lively or Powell in the game, our D drops 10 points). I’m happy with this. I’ve seen enough of him over the years that I’m not falling for the comparisons to every bad center we’ve ever had or even pursued. Has he hunted blocks on a bad team? Maybe. Should his +/- be better? Maybe. Do I need him to be a star? No. I need him to erase some/all of the gap in effectiveness we have when Lively goes out. I don’t need all 10 points of that gap. 7-8 will be just fine because we are that good when Lively plays.
I’ve also been fantasy trading for PJ for a long time. Jack of all trades and master of none. We complain a lot here that everyone is a specialist. Well, we now have Green and PJ who aren’t great at anything (well Josh is pretty efficient on low volume), but who can do a little of everything. Imagine doubling Luka now. Lively, Josh and PJ are all FANTASTIC short roll players. PJ can pass. He can drive and finish. He has the push shot in the lane. He is night and day better than GWill in this situation. We will kill teams who try it with that group in the game. He’s a better rebounder than we’ve had at the position and has good length. I think you look at a players body or work more than the “yeah, but he’s shooting only X% (on a really crappy team with no spacing) in (a few) games this season” thing that we hear a lot. I really don’t know how you stop our starters. There is a chance all five could average double figures (and THJ). The mobility and skill compared to outgoing GWill is substantial.
PJ pushing Maxi and DJJ to the bench (with Gafford, THJ and Exum) puts those players in better positions to succeed more. I like our bench. We are in a much better position to hide THJ’s defensive failings now. Are there better PF’s out there? Absolutely. Were they available for what we had to offer? No. Should we have waited…I don’t think so. Did we pay too much? Time will tell, but the cost was the cost and we didn’t give up the kids and at least know we won’t give up a top two if it all goes to crap.
I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer. I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round). THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility. We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over. I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys. I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive. If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed. We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.
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