01-24-2024, 09:19 AM
So, an expiring deal (worthless on court) and a lottery protected 2027 gets you Rozier.
First, let's define Rozier...smallish scoring guard who is 29 and owed $50mm after this season. Over the last four seasons his EPM has been 86, 81, 65 and 76 (avg 77) on the strength of an O-EPM that averages 90 and a D-EPM that averages 24. In PF terms, probably the closest comp to that EPM average of 77 is Tobias Harris if Tobias was locked up for $25mm/year. Draymond is sitting on a 76 this year with a four year average of 89. He is locked up for about $25mm/year. J. Grant has averaged a 77 and he's locked up for a lot more than $25mm/year. If you are willing to ignore this season, Wiggins averaged a 77 the four years before that. Kuzma and PJ don't come close to this type of average EPM over the last four years.
We can argue all day whether Tobias/Draymond/Grant et al is better or worse than this guy or that. That isn't the question here. The question is what do we have that might land us a player of that Rozier-esque quality. We have a 2027 pick that can be variously protected (or not). We don't have an expiring Lowry-type deal. THJ probably has more on-court value than Lowry, but you have to find a team that doesn't mind the extra year and needs the archetype. Otherwise, to get a Rozier level player you have to protect the pick less than the lottery protection on the Miami pick or you have to add youth.
Rozier isn't a star, but he's a good-ish 3rd best player and a very good 4th/5th best player. The same with many of the types of players we've been linked to. Harris probably doesn't move at the TDL and the rest all have a wart or two. Draymond is crazy, Grant is paid too much and Wiggins sucks this season are examples. I'm not sure any of the usual suspects moves the needle, but I do think we can get in the game for most with THJ and a lightly protected 2027. If you put Holmes or GWill in the deal (to match the higher dollar guys), then you probably have to compensate for that.
But, to what end. Outside of peak Draymond, I'm not sure anyone here changes things for 23/24. That's why I'm more interested in younger guys like WCJ, P Williams, Avdija and Kuminga. The salaries and age of those guys makes much more sense to me than the usual suspect. They aren't the final piece for 23/24 either, but they could be an important piece for the seasons beyond this.
First, let's define Rozier...smallish scoring guard who is 29 and owed $50mm after this season. Over the last four seasons his EPM has been 86, 81, 65 and 76 (avg 77) on the strength of an O-EPM that averages 90 and a D-EPM that averages 24. In PF terms, probably the closest comp to that EPM average of 77 is Tobias Harris if Tobias was locked up for $25mm/year. Draymond is sitting on a 76 this year with a four year average of 89. He is locked up for about $25mm/year. J. Grant has averaged a 77 and he's locked up for a lot more than $25mm/year. If you are willing to ignore this season, Wiggins averaged a 77 the four years before that. Kuzma and PJ don't come close to this type of average EPM over the last four years.
We can argue all day whether Tobias/Draymond/Grant et al is better or worse than this guy or that. That isn't the question here. The question is what do we have that might land us a player of that Rozier-esque quality. We have a 2027 pick that can be variously protected (or not). We don't have an expiring Lowry-type deal. THJ probably has more on-court value than Lowry, but you have to find a team that doesn't mind the extra year and needs the archetype. Otherwise, to get a Rozier level player you have to protect the pick less than the lottery protection on the Miami pick or you have to add youth.
Rozier isn't a star, but he's a good-ish 3rd best player and a very good 4th/5th best player. The same with many of the types of players we've been linked to. Harris probably doesn't move at the TDL and the rest all have a wart or two. Draymond is crazy, Grant is paid too much and Wiggins sucks this season are examples. I'm not sure any of the usual suspects moves the needle, but I do think we can get in the game for most with THJ and a lightly protected 2027. If you put Holmes or GWill in the deal (to match the higher dollar guys), then you probably have to compensate for that.
But, to what end. Outside of peak Draymond, I'm not sure anyone here changes things for 23/24. That's why I'm more interested in younger guys like WCJ, P Williams, Avdija and Kuminga. The salaries and age of those guys makes much more sense to me than the usual suspect. They aren't the final piece for 23/24 either, but they could be an important piece for the seasons beyond this.
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