Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

One thing of note…THJ and Holmes misses the mark by a few hundred thousand dollars.  So, if it is the two of them for Siakam, then some salary has to be added.

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Dallas stays under the tax by $500k. 

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We might need to find a team willing to take Holmes for a second (I mentioned Washington has a TPE that would absorb him).

I've been thinking about an important factor that needs to be noted in Mavs trade ideas. Your points above fit with what I was wanting to point out.

In building trade ideas, we need to keep in mind - and you obviously have been doing so - that the Mavs are virtually certain to be uninterested in any swap that takes them over the tax line. So while in theory a trade's match has a 25% leeway, in reality we're looking at a lower limit.

For example, using your THJ/Holmes note above that falls short of the LEAGUE rules, it falls much shorter of what would be the Mavs' rules. 

The Mavs are about $3.46M under the tax, and will leave themselves a small cushion, so I would think their trade limit would be a salary increase of $2.5-$3.0M overall. That would leave them $0.5-1.0M under the tax line, in case they have a need later to sign someone due to injury (or, think of buyouts).

THJ/Holmes totals $29.94M, while PS is $37.89M, a difference of about $8M. So while it would only take another $0.3M in outgoing salary to satisfy the CBA, it would take way more outgoing to allow the Mavs payroll total to end up under the tax line, which I would presume is a non-negotiable for them. The same is true with other trades, not just PS.

There are two other moving parts to consider in this limit:

1 The Mavs can do multiple trades, to juggle salary to get to the desired result.

2 The number of players coming, vs those going, will have to be accounted for.

Every extra player incoming (vs outgoing) will create a need to add another player to the payroll. The cost to refill the roster also varies depending on the signing date, which might effect the timing of a trade - a player signed now would cost about 54% of the minimum, and at/just after the trade deadline would cost about 40% of the minimum. We also should keep in mind that the Mavs might want to have room for signing an after-deadline buyout. To give an idea of what they will cost, the full-year minimum for a 2-yr-plus veteran is about $2M, and is about $1.1M for a rookie.

Obviously if they could find a team to take Holmes for a 2nd, as you propose, that would make the payroll math easy. And it would also solve the current obstacles in having a path to re-sign DJJ in the summer. While I would hope for Holmes to serve as cap filler in a trade, or to trade him with a pick for a needed player, I see a salary dump as helpful, if one can be found.