(01-04-2024, 07:26 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Of course it isn’t realistic. Siakam is very clearly not settling for two years when he can wait a few months and lock in 2-3 more. His people have been very public about this. So, your requirement is unrealistic…it won’t happen. I’m willing to invite you over to my house, but I “require” you give me $1.0 million first. It is the same as asking Siakam to forfeit $100mm to meet your “requirement”.
Here, I very clearly wasn’t trying to nail down an exact number…thus the words “give or take a million or two”. First, we don’t know that Siakam will get his full max. Kyrie didn’t. Second, we don’t know that Dallas will carry 15. Third, I mentioned a way to get another additional space under the apron. Your $5.2mm number supposes a very specific set of answers to several questions that we don’t have answers for.
No offense intended, and apologies if I didn't address your ideas properly. (But I think I did.)
You keep belaboring the idea of an extension on Siakam, when I never said an extension on Siakam is likely or very doable-- in fact, I said it wasn't. My point was that imo, I don't think the Mavs would be able to re-sign Siakam as a FA. (With the mention of an extension, I was providing a theoretical workaround to avoid that risk, but admitted it was unlikely.) That leaves me AGAINST a Siakam trade, even though I like the player.
Solve for a way to remove the Philly risk and my opinion may change. I felt very different on Kyrie. But it was a different circumstance with a different risk, and I think the difference is huge. I think that approach is realistic, not unrealistic, to consider (and respond to) the huge risk that PS would not re-sign here.
As to the cap numbers, you say I didn't read your words, except I did. I wasn't trying to shoot down the idea, but rather looking to see if it could work that easy, because I think the Mavs can't afford to let DJJ walk at a below-MLE number that they can't pay. They need more talent, not less.
I noted your soft number wording. I considered all the things you did, including roster size, Holmes SW, some softness on Siakam salary (although I certainly don't think a lower salary would be a realistic plan, because if you aren't planning to pay him the "max" he is clearly going to demand and get it from someone the Sixers).
Here was my round number analysis look:
1 RIGHT NOW - Mavs are already at or near tax line next year, which puts them about 7M below the apron. OKAY.
2 Trade result - Trade away $41M in salaries, bring in Siakam (max is a bit over 42M), is about a wash (as you put it, "keeps us around the tax give or take a million or two depending on what Siakam signs for). YES. BUT - that does not account for two empty roster slots added, at a total cap hit of more than $4M.
3 SW Holmes - Adds 8M in room ("he can be stretched to save another $8mm or so"). YES. BUT - that does not account for one empty roster slot added, at a total cap hit of more than $2M.
So the NT-MLE room for DJJ (about $12M) is reduced by about $6M (to around the Txp-MLE of $5.2M).
I went back and put all the salaries and details in a spreadsheet, to see if there was something missing, but found nothing.
I'm at the conclusion that we'd end up making it much HARDER (maybe impossible) to re-sign DJJ, after a PS trade, and the options you outline are about the best they have to work with. So it seems to me that part of the cost of a PS trade would be the loss of DJJ as a feasible re-signing.
Like I said, I wasn't trying to shoot AT you, but rather get some better numbers in the conversational mix. That is, we need another $6M, in addition to all that. No offense intended, and apologies if I didn't say it properly.
Is there some other avenue to DJJ money I don't see? Or alternately, is $6M or so enough?